Severe thunderstorms and climate change HAROLD BROOKS NOAA/NSSL

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1 Severe thunderstorms and climate change HAROLD BROOKS NOAA/NSSL

2 Big ques5ons! Have severe thunderstorms/tornadoes changed?! How and why do we expect severe thunderstorms to change in a greenhouse- enhanced atmosphere?! How do severe thunderstorms fit into climate?

3 Reports- A logical place to start! US repor5ng database! Target of opportunity! Changes in de jure and de facto standards! Hail in other countries! China- yes/no reports available at >500 sites with some size data! Italy, France, and Spain- hailpad networks

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5 China- Hail Frequency Xie et al (GRL)

6 France/Italy Hailpad Data Occurrence Kine5c Energy Berthet et al. (ECSS 2009) Eccel et al. (2011)

7 Hail Obs Summary! Li\le change to slight decrease in occurrence! Small decrease in mean size, but increase in kine5c energy of hailfalls! Start with slightly larger hail at beginning of fall! Melt more because of higher freezing level height, par5cularly impac5ng small! Leaves distribu5on shi^ed to larger stones! Does it extend to larger sizes? 7

8 Severe Thunderstorm Defini5on (US)! Hail at least 1 inch diameter (3/4 inch through 2009), winds of 50 kts (58 mph), tornado! Significant severe! 2 inch hail, 65 kt winds (hurricane force), F2+ tornado! ~10% of severe

9 Ingredients for severe thunderstorms- the supercell! Thunderstorms! Low- level warm, moist air! Mid- level (~2-10 km) rela5vely cold, dry air! Something to li^ the warm, moist air! Combine first two to get energy available for storm (CAPE or Wmax)! Organiza5on! Winds that increase and change direc5on with height over lowest few km! From equator at surface, west alo^

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12 Using large- scale condi5ons! Downscaling! Sta5s5cal (look at favorable condi5ons, ingredients- based)! Dynamical (nested models)! Applicable to past observa5ons, climate models! Ingredients based! Define events in terms of environmental condi5ons " Energy for storm strength - CAPE or Wmax " Organiza5on- 0-6 km wind shear " Ini5a5on? 12

13 Shear Energy

14 Probability of Sig Severe Line~k*CAPE*S06^1.6 From Brooks et al (2009)

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16 Updated from Brooks et al (2003)

17 Satellite Es>mate of Hail (Cecil et al., 2011)

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20 US in more detail! Look at all environmental condi5ons from ! Individual threats! Consider probability of different threats, given significant severe! Probability of big event given any event! Focus on pa\erns! Small change in the variables- energy converted to updra^ speed

21 Organiza>on UpdraE

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24 Hail Wind Tornado Condi>onal Probability of Events Given Any Significant Event

25 Tornado/ Hail Wind

26 Hail (3 in) Wind (75 kt) Tornado (F3) Tornado (F2- ESWD) Condi>onal Probability of Really Big Events Grunwald and Brooks (2011)

27 Importance of shear! Big tornado years typically have hail as dominant non- tornadic event! Predominantly shear! Intensity of tornado/hail increases with increasing shear

28 Big Tornado Years Solid Contours- More than normal, dashed- less than normal Small Tornado Years

29 What will happen in the future! Mean expected changes! CAPE goes up (related to moisture increase)! Shear goes down (decrease in equator- to- pole gradient)! Climate model simula5ons! Three main groups (so far) " GISS (parameterized updra^) " Oklahoma/Melbourne " Purdue! Look at favorable condi5ons (sta5s5cal modelling) " Concentrate on changes in model world

30 Trapp et al. (2009) Regional Analyses

31 UpdraE Shear Combina>on

32 S06 DJF CAPE e b f c g d h SON JJA MAM a Absolute change (J/kg) Figure Absolute change (m/s) Diffenbaugh et al. (2013)!

33 Model summary! Energy term increases in all regions! Shear term decreases! Overall, more environments favorable for severe storms! How do we look at long 5me series?! New tool- 20 th Century Reanalysis- surface pressure, monthly SST

34 Upper level flow Surface pressure Temperature Moisture

35 20 th Century Reanalysis Large- scale cyclones underes5mated?

36 Summing up environments! Shear is important for kind and intensity! Models show CAPE increase, shear decrease (for most part)! Gedankenexperiment! Assume condi5onal probabili5es are true! Move environmental condi5ons around

37 Hot, not even to the press yet! many tornadoes from January- 2 March, few therea^er! Impacts of seasonal temperature swings?! Look at hot/cold months! Last 60 years " Look at January- take 10 warmest, 10 coolest " Repeat for each month

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39 Patrick Marsh

40 What about 5ming?! Warm winters associated with more tornadoes, warm summers with fewer! Challenges-! Length of record, changes in repor5ng, etc.! "As spring moves up a week or two, tornado season will start in February instead of wai5ng for April! When does tornado season start?! ~500 F1+ tornadoes, look at date of 50 th! Path length

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42 Are tornadoes happening earlier in the year?

43 Are tornadoes happening earlier in the year?

44 What has changed about tornado distribu5ons?! Appearance of increased variability! Star5ng date! Since 2002, set or 5ed records for monthly F1+ extremes " Max- 4 (Feb 08, Apr 11, May 03, Sept 04) " Min- 6 (Jan 03, Feb 10, May 05, Jun 02, Jul 12, Sept 09)! Days per year (F1) decreased! More tornadoes on biggest days

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46 1000 Annual F1+ Tornadoes in US Tornadoes Year

47 Sta5s5cal model! Yes/no tornado on a day! Number of tornadoes on a day! Assump5ons! Distribu5on of T/T day is same throughout year! No day- to- day correla5on in tornado occurrence! Run for 1000 years

48 Max Min

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50 Closing thoughts! Applicability of US to rest of world?! Thermodynamics dominated by boundary- layer moisture! China may follow, but other loca5ons may not show same! Improved modelling! Need to improve environment- event rela5onships! Higher resolu5on, be\er reanalyses! Increased use of high- res models! Tornadoes appear to be more variable! Fewer days, more on outbreak days