Introduction of TOUGOU theme C -Integrated Climate Projection-

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1 Introduction of TOUGOU theme C -Integrated Climate Projection- Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models Izuru TAKAYABU, Masayoshi ISHII, Toshiyuki NAKAEGAWA, Hidetaka SASAKI (MRI) and Kazuhisa TSUBOKI (ISSE) V /08/17

2 In Japan, not only the citizens, but also cats keep high interest on extreme weather s increase perhaps caused by the climate change

3 Background of the design of TOUGOU International program IPCC AR6 reports are scheduled to be published in Shake hands among WGI. II. and III are strongly recommended in AR6 scoping meeting and also in IPCC 46 th meeting. WGI: The physical science basis WGII: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability WGIII: Mitigation of climate change Paris agreement has been engaged in Dec

4 Background of the design of TOUGOU program Domestic Nov. 2015: National Plan for Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change has been decided by the Cabinet. Vision of society: By promoting adaptation measures to climate change impacts, to build a secure, safe and sustainable society that is able to minimizing and avoiding damage for life of citizens, properties, economics, and natural environment due to its impacts, and to be resilient against damage. A-PLAT (Climate change adaptation platform) has been prepared. May 2016: Global Warming Adaptation Plan has been decided by the Cabinet, following to Paris agreement. APAN (the Asia Pacific Adaptation Network)

5 The targets of TOUGOU theme C are To arrange the authorized climate change projection data around Japan Islands. To prepare a high accuracy, local scale climate change data, especially of extreme events. Heavy precipitation events in summer monsoon season Tropical cyclones

6 Why we need the authorized data Producers users CMIP5/6 ESD DDS (Downscale) Deliver data demand Agriculture Health Hydrology Ecology Citizens TV Local governmenti Climate researchers Down-scalers Authorized data funding Impact study researchers MEXT, MAFF, MOE, JMA (Relevant government authorities) End Users

7 How to prepare the authorized data We have to consider How to handle the variety of the scenarios. Compare pros and cons of ESD and DDS. Clarify the position of MRI-AGCM/NHRCM DS system in CMIP5 model results. Crossing boundary between the ministries and produce a dataset family usable for the climate change impact study researchers To respond to the various demand from users, we arrange the projection data by considering its temporal and space scale.

Next, on heavy precipitation Change of Baiu

ΔSST pattaern mm/d Change to CMIP3 mean ΔSST

Normalize by ΔSAT When we change SST pattern from

, and tropical NW Pacific increase Which explain

8 Next, on heavy precipitation Change of Baiu precipitation behavior ΔSST HFA_rcp85 CMIP5 mean ΔSST pattaern mm/d Change to CMIP3 mean ΔSST pattern and calc. Normalize by ΔSAT When we change SST pattern from CMIP5 to CMIP3, precipitation around Japan Isls., and tropical NW Pacific increase Which explain the difference in the precipitation pattern between CMIP3 and 5 Calc. done by CMIP3 condition

9 Change of Baiu precipitation behavior JJA mean precip. UV850hP (Chenge) a) 20km AGCM The effect of Air Sea coupling b) 20km semi coupled b - a 10-20N, E When we use the air-sea interaction, Precipitation in Tropical NW Pacific Around Japan Isls. Increase Difference between CMIP 20km AGCM (YS) models decrease 20km Semi-coupled (YS) 60km AGCM (YS) 60km Semi-coupled (YS) CMIP5 AOGCM

10 Rainfall distribution of NHRCM05/02 Potential of high resolution model. Here 5km and 2km grid model results are compared - Wide area - (Courtesy of Morimoto and Nakakita 2017) (DPRI)

11 HIROSHIMA flood (Aug. 2014) Story line approach (by PGWD) Water content (g/kg) Stability

12 Here we use δx=500m model and catch the heavy precipitation event 6hourly precipitation patterns of HIROSHIMA flood case. Control experiment. All ensemble cases We adopt all these calculations to build an ensemble

13 Precipitation amounts change Area mean precipitation (6 hour) Area averaged precipitation amount change are shown in the figure. Horizontal axis : precipitation of present condition 将来実験( 赤) と中立実験( 青) の領域平均6h 積算降水(mm) Vertical axis: Precipitation of the future condition. Blue dots: Stability not changed. Red dots: Stability and WV has changed to the future condition 現在実験の領域平均 6h 積算降水 (mm)

Finally, Tropical Cyclones Change of all TC

14 Finally, Tropical Cyclones Change of all TC occurrence frequency Knutson et al. (2015) [HiRAM+ hurricane model] d4pdfの4 上昇実験 Sugi et al. (2016) [ 多種 MRI-AGCM3.2] Roberts et al. (2015) [MetOffice GA3.0] The common results are, Decrease WNP,SIO, SPA Increase Around Hawaii Courtesy of Yoshida, 2017

Occurrence frequency change of Cat-4/5 TC Knutson et al.

From south of Japan Isls. to Hawaii Isls.

15 Occurrence frequency change of Cat-4/5 TC Knutson et al. (2015) [HiRAM+ hurricane model] Present study Sugi et al. (2016) [ 多種 MRI-AGCM3.2] Common results here are, * Decrease NWP, SPA * Increase From south of Japan Isls. to Hawaii Isls. We cannot discuss on the details of TC by using only GCM. Thus, we use high resolution regional model. Courtesy of Yoshida, 2017

16 Story line approach (by PGWD) ALL and NAT exps. of Haiyan 20km 5km 1km NAT: SST and stability is set to 150 years ago. ALL: Calc. has been done in present condition. (Takayabu et al., 2015 ERL)

17 Difference of strength of typhoon Haiyan between ALL and NAT exps. MCP become lower in ALL 2.89 ± 2.06m/s 15/16 NAT ± 4.98hPa 15/16 最大風速が大きい ALL Results of 1km grid WRF model (16 ensembles) (Takayabu et al., 2015 ERL)

18 Difference of storm surge among ALL and NAT exps. Max 3.8m (mean: 2.19m) Max 4.27m (mean: 2.60m) NAT Strom surge height around Tacloban increase about 20% in ALL cases, compared to NAT cases. ALL (Takayabu et al., 2015 ERL)

19 The targets of TOUGOU theme C are To arrange the authorized climate change projection data around Japan Islands. To prepare a high accuracy, local scale climate change pattern data. Especially extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. We also aim at co-working with foreign countries.

High Resolution (20-km Mesh) Global Climate Model and Projected Hydro- Meteorological Extremes in the Future. Akio Kitoh

2011.6.29, U-02, IUGG, Melbourne High Resolution (20-km Mesh) Global Climate Model and Projected Hydro- Meteorological Extremes in the Future Akio Kitoh Climate Research Department Meteorological Research