SIRS NEESPI megaproject :

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1 SIRS NEESPI megaproject : results and perspectives July 15, 2009 E. Gordov (1,2), M. Kabanov (2), V. Lykosov (3) and E. Vaganov (4) Siberian Center for Environmental research and Training, Tomsk, Russia, gordov@scert.ruru Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, Tomsk, Russia, Institute for Numerical Mathematics RAS, Moscow, Russia Institute of Forest SB RAS and Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russia CITES/NEESPI Workshop Krasnoyarsk, Russia

2 Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS, Northern Eurasia a Earth Science ce Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) megaproject coordinating national and international activity in the region aimed at investigation of environmental changes in Siberia in their interrelations with Global Change. Approach adopted Clusterization of national and international projects (knowledge and data sharing) Development of information-computational infrastructure to support multidisciplinary investigations of the region YS Training&Education Organizationally SIRS is supervised by the Russian National Committee for IGBP and managed by its Siberian Branch The state of the art Zotino Tall Tower Observation Facility (ZOTTO); Monitoring climatic and ecosystem changes in West Siberia Modeling land surface processes and regional climate; SIRS information-computational infrastructure; and YS Training&Education

3 ZOTTO (Zotino Tall Tower Observation Facility) ZOTTO

4 Region and footprint 88 50'0"E 89 0'0"E 89 10'0"E 89 20'0"E 89 30'0"E 89 40'0"E 89 50'0"E 90 0'0"E '0"N 60 55'0"N 61 0'0"N 61 0'0"N 61 5'0"N 61 5'0"N kj "N 40'0"N 60 45'0"N 60 50'0"N 60 45'0"N 60 50'0"N 60 55' Ê 60 30'0"N 60 30'0"N 60 35'0"N 60 35'0"N 60 40'0" 60 kj tower_center 1: Ì 88 40'0"E 88 50'0"E 89 0'0"E 89 10'0"E 89 20'0"E 89 30'0"E 89 40'0"E 89 50'0"E

5 Landcover classification 88 50'0"E 89 0'0"E 89 10'0"E 89 20'0"E 89 30'0"E 89 40'0"E 89 50'0"E 90 0'0"E 61 5'0"N 61 5'0"N 61 0'0"N лиственные 61 0'0 0"N '0"N смешанные смешанные, лиственных более 50% смешанные, темнохвойных более 50% смешанные, темнохвойных менее 50% 60 50'0"N темнохвойные kjtower_center Unclassified 1deciduous 2lichen pine, density 0.6 3scar, 3-10 years old 4lichen, individual pine 5fresh cutted down Nkj 60 50'0"N 60 55'0"N 60 45'0"N трава болота Ê 6moss pine 7mixed, moss pine & decid 9mixed, dark conifer 50% 10deep water 11scar, 1-2 year old 12grass bog 60 45'0"N 60 40'0 0"N вода снег 60 35'0"N безлесные гарь, возраст 1-3 года 13wet bog 14dark conifer 15grass 16moss pine, moistened 17lichen pine, moistened 18 lichen pine, density scar, years old 20scar, more 50 years old 21mixed, pine & dark conifer non forested 23lichen pine, density sparse lichen pine 25mixed, dark conifer & pine 26water 27mixed, deciduous 60% 60 35'0"N 60 40'0"N 28mixed, deciduous 80% 60 30'0"N 29cutted down 30scar by dark conifer, 1-5 y Ì 31stones 32mixed, prior dark conifer 1: '0"E 89 0'0"E 89 10'0"E 89 20'0"E 89 30'0"E 89 40'0"E 89 50'0"E 90 0'0"E 60 30'0"N

6 GIS screenshot 60 55'0"N 61 0'0"N 61 5'0"N 60 50'0"N 60 30'0"N 60 35'0"N 60 40'0"N '0"N 88 50'0"E 89 0'0"E 89 10'0"E 89 20'0"E 89 30'0"E 89 40'0"E 89 50'0"E 90 0'0"E куpья Амосиха ВОРОГОВО ДУБЧЕС ЕНИСЕЙ ЗОТИНО зал.бол.куpья kj Ê вышка kj Мал.Хойба вырубки до вырубки реки, линии дороги населенные пункты 1996 пожары NOAA пожары NOAA пожары NOAA ЕНИСЕЙ 1999 пожары NOAA пожары NOAA пожары NOAA пожары NOAA пожары 1083NOAA пожары NOAA пожары NOAA пожары NOAA пожары NOAA ЕНИСЕЙ пожары NOAA лесничества кватральная сеть : Ì Хойба Ниж.Шаp Веpхний Нижняя 88 50'0"E 89 0'0"E 89 10'0"E 89 20'0"E 89 30'0"E 89 40'0"E 89 50'0"E 90 0'0"E 60 30'0" N 60 35'0"N 60 40'0"N 60 45'0"N 60 50'0"N 60 55'0 "N 61 0'0"N 61 5'0"N

7 Zotino Tall Tower Observation Facility

8 A way to determine Carbon Balance and it s uncertainties -1-1 Fluxes in t C ha yr CO2 NPP 6±2 NEP 5±1 Wood Fires Litter 3±1 3±1 Harvest Mineralization 1,4±0,7 1,5±0,9 Organic layer O Soil C Flux Mineral soil A

9 Russian organizations involved: Siberian federal university, Krasnoyarsk; V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS ( Krasnoyarsk) - local host institution; Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow MPl for Biogeochemistry (Jena, Germany) - continuous biogeochemical trace gas measurements, eddy covariance flux measurements, meteorology observations and local ecosystem process studies; MPI for Chemistry (Mainz, Germany) - measurements of aerosols and CO concentration and isotopes; Institute of Troposphere Research (Leipzig, Germany) International science and technology center (ISTC) recently started Project 2770

Monitoring climatic and ecosystem changes in West

shows that during 1976-2006 (winter tepmerature

while their intensity and duration increased.

10 Monitoring climatic and ecosystem changes in West Siberia Statistical analysis of regional meteodata shows that during (winter tepmerature grows in the region) number of cyclones decreased, while their intensity and duration increased. It led to changes in clouds pattern and subsequently to changes in temperature. Trends of temperature (upper line) and cyclone number recurrence in February in %

Statistical analysis confirms significant

surface temperatures in Northern Eurasia

Vegetation period duration increases by 1 day

of frost days increase annually by up to 1

Temperatures time series inhomogeneity is

Student test statistics for vegetation period

11 Statistical analysis confirms significant increase of weekly and monthly mean near surface temperatures in Northern Eurasia during winter, spring and summer seasons. Vegetation period duration increases by 1 day a year for the central part of Eurasia. At the same time trend calculations ( and ) shows that number of frost days increase annually by up to 1 day for the central part of Eurasia. Temperatures time series inhomogeneity is revealed in some regions of Siberia. Student test statistics for vegetation period length ( ) indicates on possible transient phenomena appearing at nonlinear system regime changes

12 Linear trends of temperature averaged for winter (left) and for summer. Warming rates are quite high (more that С/10 years ), Number of frost days - Tmin < 0oC (left) and Number of summer days - T max>25oc indexes. Significant inhomogeneity in Siberia. Temperature increase smaller in warm season then in cold one , JMA/CRIEPI JRA data

13 Modeling land surface processes and regional climate Atmospheric modeling, e.g. using global l climate model with improved spatial resolution in the region under consideration and non-hydrostatic mesoscale models: parameterization of mesoscale variability Catchment modeling, e.g. constructing models of river dynamics: parameterization of hydrological cycle Vegetation modeling, e.g. models of vegetation dynamics: parameterization of biogeochemical and hydrological cycles Soil (including permafrost) modeling, e.g. models of snow and frozen ground mechanics: parameterization of hydrological and biogeochemical cycles Coupled regional models Statistical and dynamic downscaling (e g regional projections of Statistical and dynamic downscaling (e.g. regional projections of global climate change patterns)

14 The presence of different types of su o surfaces aces ((forests, o ests, lakes, a es, hills, s, etc etc.)) Thermal contrasts: forest bare soil, land sea urban heat heat islands islands,, etc Local atmospheric circulations: breezes, urban breezes, slope winds

15 INM climate model Sscenario A1B The global warming is expected to be about 3.3 oc the end of 21st century Winter warming in Russia is estimated from 4-6oC in southern part to 8-10oC in northern regions. Summer warming in Russia is estimated from 5-6oC in south to 3-4oC in north. Catastrophic shortage of the permafrost area in Siberia to the end of 21st century is possible! PERMAFROST B A2

16 Goal: Numerical simulation of atmospheric circulations induced by thermal contrast of the underlying surface (e.g. breezes, internal boundary layers and slope winds) It needs: -atmospheric model dl - soil model - inland water model - etc. Ongoing Tasks (INM, IFA, SCERT and IMCES, MPI for Meteorology): Development and verification of land surface model (LSM) Incorporation of LSM into the atmospheric model Verification of capability of joint atmosphere - land surface model to simulate local circulations and parameterization

17 SIRS information-computational infrastructure Distributed information-computational infrastructure required to support Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS, investigations of environmental changes in Siberia. Approach adopted: Development of Internet-accessible information-computational systems (Web cites and portals) for chosen Earth Science thematic domains Development of Internet-accessible satellite data Centers in the Region Development of distributed analytical environment supporting ecological systems study Synergy of SIRS ICT infrastructure and professional education Result envisaged: distributed collaborative information-computational environment to support investigations in multidisciplinary i li area of Earth System Science and applications Realization: Set of interrelated SB RAS Integrated Projects with SIRS is a test bed for their outcomes implementation!

18 Enviro-RISKS web portal

19 Web based online system for analysis of climatic changes. Archives of meteostations data and Reanasysis in Siberia can be processed now (

20 Thank you!

Climates of NYS. Definitions. Climate Regions of NYS. Storm Tracks. Climate Controls 10/13/2011. Characteristics of NYS s Climates

Climates of NYS. Definitions. Climate Regions of NYS. Storm Tracks. Climate Controls 10/13/2011. Characteristics of NYS s Climates Definitions Climates of NYS Prof. Anthony Grande 2011 Weather and Climate Weather the state of the atmosphere at one point in time. The elements of weather are temperature, air pressure, wind and moisture.