Florida Division of Emergency Management State Watch Office

Transcription

1 Florida Division of Emergency Management State Watch Office Morning Situation Report Monday, October 8, 2018

2 State Emergency Operations Center Activation Level Level 1 Activation

3 SERT On-Call Personnel Position Personnel Phone Operations Chief Ashley Davis (850) Watch Officer Sam Walters (850) Duty Officer Taylor Cheney (850) Operations Officer- Day Woody Harvey (850) Operations Officer- Swing Phillip Thomas (850) Operations Officer- Night Shane Matthews (850) Meteorologist Michael Spagnolo (850) Plans Chief Ryan Lock (850) Logistics Chief Chuck Hagan (850) Human Services Director Pam Hughes (850) Emergency Services Director Rob Dietrich (850) Infrastructure Branch Director Danny Kilcollins (850) ESF 8 On-Call Robert Mills (850) Robert.Mills@flhealth.gov Public Information Officer Alberto Moscoso (850) Alberto.Moscoso@em.myflorida.com DEM Finance and Admin Phyllis Vaughn (850) Phyllis.Vaughn@em.myflorida.com

4 Regional EM Liaison Team Regional EM Liaisons County Location Status / Activities REMLT Manager: Jim Roberts Leon Michael Response Activation Region 1: Wanda Stafford In Region Michael Response Activation Region 2: Brian Bradshaw In Region Michael Response Activation Region 3: Gina Lambert Lake Michael Monitoring Region 4: Paul Siddall Leon Equipment Updates Region 5: Vacant VACANT See Coverage Region 6: Jodie Fiske Lee / Leon Michael Response Activation Region 7: Willie Bouie Palm Beach County EM Visit / Michael Monitoring R3 covering Lake, Seminole, & Volusia R4 covering Brevard, Orange, & Osceola R7 covering Indian River, Martin, & St. Lucie Status Normal Operations Delayed Response Out of Service / Unavailable

5 Meteorology Summary Threat R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 Lightning L L L L L L M Flooding L Damaging Wind Hail Tornado L Excessive Heat Fire Fog Rip Currents H H H L H L H Space Weather Low Lake Okeechobee Status: Keetch-Byram Drought Index: Elevation is at ft. 329 (+12) on a scale from 0 (very moist) to 800 (very dry) Today s Weather Map Rainfall Amounts Next 24 Hours

6 Meteorology Summary Statewide Overview, Next 24 Hours: Moisture has gradually returned to North Florida. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop and generally move from east to west. Central and South Florida, where more moisture is in place, will see more numerous showers and thunderstorms. With a direct influence from Tropical Storm Michael, rain chances are a near guarantee across the Florida Keys. While widespread or significant severe weather is not expected, squally weather with an increased threat of waterspouts is expected across the Florida Keys and far South Florida. Winds may gust as high as 45 mph in squalls across the Keys and 35 mph across the Peninsula. Rainfall totals in the Florida Keys will be 2-4 in localized areas and 1-2 across far South Florida. Highs this afternoon will continue to be above average for early October as they rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Occasional showers will continue overnight, especially near the coasts and across the Keys where a thunderstorm will remain possible. Low temperatures will range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s. Chance of Rain Today Chance of Rain Tonight

7 Coastal Hazards / Hydrology Rip Currents: Continuing onshore winds and swells from Tropical Storm Leslie will continue to result in a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic Beaches. Onshore winds and increasing swells from Tropical Storm Michael will result in a moderate to high risk of rip currents for all Panhandle and Big Bend beaches. The West Coast of the Peninsula has a low risk of rip currents. Wave heights will be 3-5 in the Atlantic and 1-3 in the Gulf. Marine conditions in the Gulf will continue to deteriorate. Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard. Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! Rip Current Outlook Lake Okeechobee average elevation is feet, which is 0.74 feet below normal for this time of year. Hydrology: There are no active River Flood Warnings across the state. All major rivers are even below action stage. Rainfall today will not contribute to river flooding, but localized flooding is possible across far South FL and the Keys. For more information on specific river stages, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here. Current & Forecast River Conditions

8 Tropical Weather Tropics: Tropical Depression 14 rapidly strengthened over the last 24 hours into Tropical Storm Michael. Michael is currently located in the Yucatan Channel about 700 miles south of Panama City, FL. Michael is moving to the north at 7 mph and is expected to continue strengthening as it accelerates northward across the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to make landfall as a Category 2 or 3 in the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend sometime on Wednesday. Hurricane Watches are in effect from Dixie county westward to Escambia, including all inland counties from Leon to the west. Tropical storm watches are in effect from Levy county southward to Manatee County. Storm Surge Watches are in effect from Navarre Beach to Tampa Bay. More specific impact details are available in the tropic packets. Tropical Storm Leslie is maintaining strength and track and is no threat to the Caribbean or U.S. as it moves east-southeast. Two areas are being monitored for possible development, but each have less than a 30% chance and are no threat to land. For more information on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center at

9 Space Weather Current Sunspots Solar Flare Risk Active Watches & Warnings Past 24 hours M-class: 1% Geomagnetic Storm: Yes (G2 Watch) A1 Solar Flare X-class: 1% Radiation Storm: No No Radio Blackouts 48 Hour Geomagnetic Forecast 10/8 10/9 Max Kp= 4 (G0) Chance of minor activity = 35% severe activity = 20% Max Kp= 4 (G0) Chance of minor activity = 15% severe activity = 1% Coronal holes on the Earthfacing side of the sun Space Weather: The sun remains spotless and the risk of a significant solar flare is near zero. The very large coronal hole on the sun s earth-facing disk is producing a stream of solar winds that has been impacting Earth over the last 24 hours. Minor (G1) geomagnetic storming has been observed. Conditions are expected to gradually improve over the next 24 hours and all watches and warnings are expected to expire later today. The space weather threat to Florida is low.

10 SWO Communications Systems & Contact Information Equipment Contact Status Phone: or Fax: SWO Tracker: SLERS: DEM Statewide NAWAS: State Watch Office EMnet Message: FL.000- State Watch Office EMnet Voice: FL SWP- State Watch Office State EAS: FL Interoperable Network: Website: WebEOC: LP.1 Stations via Emnet SOFEOC Users wishing to subscribe (approval pending) to this distribution list, register at: Taylor Cheney Comments Digitally signed by Taylor Cheney DN: cn=taylor Cheney, o=florida Division of Emergency Management, ou=operations Duty Officer, c=us Date: :24:03-04'00'