6:00 am August 3, 2015 Heavy Rain & Coastal Flood Update

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1 6:00 am August 3, 2015 Heavy Rain & Coastal Flood Update Synopsis/Overview: An area of low pressure spinning over the northeast Gulf of Mexico off the Nature Coast will continue to provide the threat for bands of showers and thunderstorms to move ashore off the Gulf of Mexico into the day on Monday. The strongest bands are currently moving ashore over Pasco County. This additional rainfall over any one location from Tampa Bay northward along the Nature coast will cause flooding problems due to highly saturated soil conditions. At this time the heaviest rainfall and greatest new flooding concerns are in Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties. However, the development of heavy rainfall is still possible through the day including Tampa Bay south to Manatee County with the persistent onshore flow and moist conditions. The greatest potential for additional flooding from rainfall will occur if it coincides with the time of high tide, as the elevated tides will prevent proper drainage of rainfall near the coast. Warnings/Watches/Advisories Flood Warning o Western Pasco County, until 11:30 am. Will evaluate radar trends for possible extension in time. Flood Advisory o Northwest Hillsborough County, including Tampa, Southwest Hernando County, Western Pasco County and Pinellas County until 6:45 am. Will evaluate radar trends for possible extension in time. Flood Watch o In effect for Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, and Hillsborough Counties through 4 pm Monday. River Flood Warning o Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens: Remain in Minor Flooding o Little Manatee River at Wimauma: Remain in Minor Flooding o Hillsborough River Near Zephyrhills: Minor Flood stage early Tuesday. o Alafia River at Lithia: Remain in Action Stage o Anclote River at Elfers: Rise to Major Flood stage Monday afternoon. o Myakka River at Myakka River State Park: Remain in Minor Flood stage. Page 1

2 Marine and Beach o A Small Craft Advisory on gulf waters to the north of Englewood, including the waters of Tampa Bay until 4PM EDT Monday. o A High Risk of Rip Currents from Pinellas County to Lee County through 4 PM EDT Monday. Coastal Flooding o Minor coastal flooding will occur at the time of high tide later this afternoon. Tides are currently going into low tide at most locations but the major issue will occur this afternoon when the tide is coming back in between 3-5 PM EDT. This would be an issue if heavy rain is in the area as it would be slow to drain into Tampa Bay. Impacts Flooding Areal flooding from heavy rainfall will impact the area from Tampa Bay northward along the Nature Coast. Best chance to flood streets near the coast will be during high tide as the water has difficulty draining Showers and Thunderstorms Gusty showers or thunderstorms could topple shallow rooted trees due to highly saturated soil. Page 2 of 9

3 NWS Tampa Bay Area Briefing for August 3, 2015 Update on Low Pressure development in northeast Gulf of Mexico: Low pressure has resulted in gusty winds and rough conditions over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and contributed to some minor coastal flooding along the Nature Coast. Conditions are not favorable for further development of this system, and the National Hurricane Center has forecast only a 10% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. Page 3 of 9

4 Flood Watch Map: Watch/Warning/Advisory Map: Flood Warning River Flood Warning River Flood Warning Page 4 of 9

5 Forecasts for Rivers expected to reach Action or Flood Stage: Page 5 of 9

6 Page 6 of 9

7 Page 7 of 9

8 The latest forecasts for all local rivers can always be found on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Page Hour Forecast for Tampa: 48 Hour Forecast for Brooksville: Page 8 of 9

9 48 Hour Forecast For Chiefland: 2-Day Rainfall Forecast (through 8 AM Wednesday) Updated Forecasts and Radar Forecasts are updated as needed. Check for the latest forecast and radar data. A secondary radar site can be found at Page 9 of 9

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