Asian Regional Activities

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1 The ninth session of THORPEX/ICSC September 2011, Geneva, Switzerland Asian Regional Activities Tadashi Tsuyuki (MRI/JMA) Acting Chair of Asian Regional Committee

2 Asian Regional Committee Established in May Member countries: China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia. Main target phenomena: Tropical cyclones, heavy monsoon precipitation, sand and dust storms, MJO. Major regional campaigns T-PARC summer 2008: China, Japan, Korea T-PARC winter 2008/2009: Russia

3 The 3 rd Asian THORPEX Science Symposium (2-4 June 2010, Seogwipo, Korea) Nearly 70 participants from China, Japan, Korea, Russia and USA. 30 oral presentations and 10 posters. Prof. Russ Elsberry gave an invited talk Typhoon-ocean field experiment ITOP 2010: An extension of TPARC/TCS- 08 to improve typhoon forecasts. Dr. Jim Caughey presented Recent developments in the THORPEX programme. TIGGE-related research: Predictability of high-impact weather using TIGGE data, Upgraded TIGGE archive center of CMA, TIGGE activities of KMA.

4 The 7 th ARC meeting (5 June 2010, Seogwipo, Korea) 7 ARC members out of 10 attended along with Prof. Elsberry, Dr. Caughey and observers. It was agreed that Asian THORPEX Science Symposium is held every two years, NWP WG and GIFS-TIGGE WG are set up as more frequent and effective communication structures among ARC member countries, ARC supports the Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in Southeast Asia with TIGGE applications, to demonstrate the capability of TIGGE database for operational forecasts.

5 THORPEX activities in China Observation experiment of mesoscale predictability on summer rainstorm around Beijing area (Oct ). June-August, with intensive observation July 20- August 20. Adaptive observation system for sensitive areas are set up. South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) ( ). May 1-June 10 (southern China), June 10-July 20 (Yangtse River valleys and Huai River Valley) It has led to establishment of mesoscale observing networks in south China, with enhanced capacity to observe precipitation systems at meso-β scale. Support of Shanghai World Expo 2010 with TIGGE typhoon ensemble prediction products.

6 Future Plans of THORPEX-China To enhance the Beijing TIGGE archive center Better customer interface and more convenient service. Promotion of the development of TIGGE CXML typhoon demonstration projects. The 3 rd Tibetan Plateau Experiment for Atmospheric Science Enhancement of the understanding of the plateau impacts on China s and global weather and climate. Field Experiment on Convective Clouds and Heavy Monsoon Rainfall Follow-up of SCHeREX It aims at improving cloud models, assimilation cloud parameters, and thus raising the capacity for heavy rainfall prediction in South China

FDP of TCs over the North Indian Ocean Objectives To demonstrate the ability of various NWP models to assess the genesis, intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the north Indian ocean.

7 FDP of TCs over the North Indian Ocean Objectives To demonstrate the ability of various NWP models to assess the genesis, intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the north Indian ocean. To incorporate modification into the models which could be specific to the Bay of Bengal. Schedule (i) Pre-pilot phase : Oct-Nov. 2008, 2009 (ii) Pilot phase : Oct-Nov. 2010, 2011 (iii) Final phase : Oct-Nov Enhanced observations Sagar Kanya cruise, Enhanced AWS network of the coast, 5 activated buoy observations, Oceansat-II observations, Microwave imagery products, Tropical Cyclone module in Synergie System. Area of FDP Cyclones

SAARC STORM Programme (Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling) Objectives To build appropriate operational early warning systems for highly damaging severe thunderstorms

8 SAARC STORM Programme (Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling) Objectives To build appropriate operational early warning systems for highly damaging severe thunderstorms around the eastern and northeastern parts of India Participating countries Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Schedule : PILOT campaigns : Main program Area of STORM Programme

9 Recent Updates of JMA-EPS Revisions of the singular vector (SV) method of Typhoon EPS (May 2010) - Positive impact on spread-skill relationship of TC track forecasts. Introduction of stochastic perturbations in physics tendency to One-week EPS and Typhoon EPS (December 2010) - Nearly neutral impact on TC track forecasts. Reduced amplitude of initial perturbations (IPs) and extension of IPs into the southern hemisphere in one-week EPS (March 2011) - Positive impact on ensemble spread and forecast skill. Providing the analysis at 00UTC to TIGGE database (August 2011) - Following Action of the 8th GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting report.

10 TIGGE-related Research in Japan Yamaguchi, M., and S.J. Majumdar, 2010: Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, Yamaguchi, M., D. S. Nolan, M. Iskandarani, S. J. Majumdar, M. S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds, 2011: Singular vectors for tropical cyclonelike vortices in a nondivergent barotropic framework, J. Atmos. Sci. (Accepted) Yamaguchi, M., S. Hoshino, and T. Nakazawa, 2011: Tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific using TIGGE data, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. (Submitted) Matsueda, M., 2011: Predictability of Euro-Russian blocking in summer of 2010, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L Matsueda, M., and H. Endo, 2011: Verification of medium range MJO forecasts with TIGGE, Geophys, Res. Lett., 38, L11801.

National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather Milestones 2001.11 Promoted to establish the NCIO 2003. 4 Opened the NCIO 2008.

11 National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather Milestones Promoted to establish the NCIO Opened the NCIO Signed an MOU between the Gwangju Regional Meteorological Administration and Boseong-Gun, which agrees for the relocation of the NCIO from Haenam to Boseong Carried out the relocation of NCIO from Haenam to Boseong Completed the relocation and reinstallation of the observation instruments from Haenam to Boseong Started to observe and monitor severe weather continuously in Boseong Latitude : Longitude : Sea level height : 14 m Area : 3,069 m2 The Boseong National Center for Intensive Observation (NCIO) of Severe Weather was opened on April, 2010 since it had relocated from the center at Haenam where observations had commenced from 2003.

12 National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather Enhance the Boseong NCIO into a highly advanced observation center in East Asia to mitigate damages due to severe weather phenomena ATSO WPR ORG MRR RDM CLM Installation MRR( 02~), ORG( 02~), WPR( 02~), MRR ORG Autosonde( 02~), Radiometet( 07~) Ceilometer( 10.06~) Disdrometer( 11.03~) Disdrometer RDM CLM

ProbeX-2010 (PRedictability & OBservation EXperiment of Korea) Analysis for effects of topographies and city environments on the weather in metropolitan areas Period: 14 August to 4 September 2010

13 ProbeX-2010 (PRedictability & OBservation EXperiment of Korea) Analysis for effects of topographies and city environments on the weather in metropolitan areas Period: 14 August to 4 September 2010 (22 days) Goals To investigate relationships of frequency, amount, and intensity of rainfall with urbanization To understand physical mechanisms of severe weather accompanied by heavy rainfall To examine effects of urbanization and topography on changes in precipitation processes Equipments Interval Location [Site Distribution] Radiosonde (RAOB) Micro Rain Radar (MRR) Sky picture (TSI) 6h Continuously 6h Incheon airport, Dongducheon, Yangpyeong Incheon airport, Dongducheon, Yangpyeong Incheon airport Yangpyeong GPS (GPS) Continuously Incheon, Seoul WXT-510 (WXT) Continuously Incheon airport Rain gauge (RGE) Continuously Incheon airport

14 Predictability of High Impact Weather Using TIGGE data Brier Score Calculate Brier Score of ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, GE June~August mm/24hr 25mm/24hr 50mm/24hr Case Study ( 12UTC 09 July 2009) RMSE of MSLP OBS 24hr accu. rainfall Consistency of MSLP

Further Plan Ⅰ: Establish the Targeted Observation

strategy 48 h 48 h Targeted Observation Strategy System

00z 06z 12z 18z 00z Data download Calculation

5h Post-process & Upload Decision Observation!

!!! Retrieval of sensitivity region Used as input to

15 Further Plan Ⅰ: Establish the Targeted Observation System Flowchart of Real-time adjoint sensitivity strategy 48 h 48 h Targeted Observation Strategy System Setting the response region T i T a T v 00z 06z 12z 18z 00z 06z 12z 18z 00z Data download Calculation Pre-process 0h 6h 6.5h 10.5h 15.5h Post-process & Upload Decision Observation!!! -48h, Decide obs. points & targeted obs.!!! Retrieval of sensitivity region Used as input to numerical model Enhancing model performance Determining the location for the observation Targeted observation : Radiosonde, MRR, GPS etc.

Further Plan Ⅱ: Ship Based Observation Gisang-1 Specification Gross Tonnage : 498 ton Length Overall : 64.32 m Breadth : 9.

5 knots) Observation Equipment ASAP : Upper air observation Conductivity Temperature Depth recoder (CTD) Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) Upper air observation in the

16 Further Plan Ⅱ: Ship Based Observation Gisang-1 Specification Gross Tonnage : 498 ton Length Overall : m Breadth : 9.40 m Maximum speed : 33 km /h (18 knots) Cruising speed : 31 km /h (16.5 knots) Observation Equipment ASAP : Upper air observation Conductivity Temperature Depth recoder (CTD) Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) Upper air observation in the sensitivity region using the Targeted Observation Strategy System Period: June to September 2011 Region: Western and southern sea (sensitivity region) Goals To enhance the predictability of severe weather phenomena as performing the observation in the sea where the observation site is rare To assess the performance of the Targeted Observation Strategy System

Further Plan Ⅲ: ProbeX-2011 and 2012 2011: To Improve the predictability on the heavy snowfall Period: December 2011 Region: Incheon

Goals To improve the predictability and the reinforcement of early-surveillance skill on the heavy snowfall 2012: Support the Expo

17 Further Plan Ⅲ: ProbeX-2011 and : To Improve the predictability on the heavy snowfall Period: December 2011 Region: Incheon Equipments: Radiosonde, MRR, GPS etc. Goals To improve the predictability and the reinforcement of early-surveillance skill on the heavy snowfall 2012: Support the Expo 2012 Yeosu Korea, to provide customized weather information Period: 12 May to 12 August, 2012 Region: Yeosu Equipments: Radiosonde, MRR, GPS etc. Goals To support the successful hosting of the Expo 2012 Yeosu Korea Boseong Yeosu

18 Optimization of Siberian RAOB Optimal interpolation Z500 RMS error field Reponded to Optimal Design configuration Долгота Широта Поле ошибок восстановления поля Н500 (м) по данным достаточной аэрологической сети АТР из 42 станц (Courtesy of Dr Pokrovsky) 5

19 FROST-2014: Forecasting and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed A mixed FDP/RDP The main focus is on kilometric-scale. short-range winter forecasting over complex terrain. Forecast time range and resolutions Deterministic: 36 hours or more. FDP: 2 km RDP: km Ensemble: 72 hours. FDP: 7 km RDP: 2 km Timetable Pre-trial: 2011/12 winter Trial: 2012/13 winter Olympics: 2014 winter (Courtesy of Dr Tsyrulnikov)

20 FROST-2014: Forecasting and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed Kick-off meeting: Sochi, Russia, 1-3 March Confirmed participants: Russian Weather Service COSMO DWD (Germany) ARPA (Italy) Environment Canada TIGGE-LAM HIRLAM NOAA ZAMG (Austria), FMI, Uni Helsinki Vaisala Other participants are kindly invited (Courtesy of Dr Tsyrulnikov)

21 ARC Plans The eighth ARC meeting (9 December 2011, Tokyo) On an occasion of the Second Asia/Oceania Meteorological Satellite Users' Conference (6-9 December 2011, Tokyo) TIGGE support of SWFDP in Southeast Asia ( ) The forth Asian THORPEX science symposium (To be determined)

22 SWFDP in South-east Asia : SWFDP-SeA Target Severe Weather Events The following events are focused in order of priority. Aassociated hazards include flooding, landslides, high waves and swell: tropical cyclone (both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal) track, intensity, structure changes and landfall process (wind and gust, rainfall and storm surge); heavy rain triggered by tropical cyclones, SW and NE monsoon, troughs and ITCZ migration, and orography; thunderstorms and hail associated with severe convection; cold conditions and frost; extreme hot and dry conditions associated with föhn effect.

SWFDP in South-east Asia : SWFDP-SeA NMCs Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam Global Centres CMA JMA KMA Regional Centres Hanoi (regional forecast support) Hong Kong (training and technical support)

23 SWFDP in South-east Asia : SWFDP-SeA NMCs Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam Global Centres CMA JMA KMA Regional Centres Hanoi (regional forecast support) Hong Kong (training and technical support) RSMCs Tokyo and New Delhi (Tropical Cyclone/Typhoon forecasting support) July 2011: Preparatory Training Workshop (Hong Kong) Oct 2011: Regional Subproject Management Team Meeting (Hanoi, Vietnam) Q1/Q2 2012: Start Field Phase (from rainy season) Q1/Q2 2013: End Field Phase Q4 2013: Complete Evaluation

24 TIGGE Support of SWFDP-SeA JMA will provide two types GIFS-TIGGE products for Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project in Southeast Asia. 1. Tropical cyclone track in the western North Pacific (TIGGE CXML data) 2. Severe weather potential such as heavy precipitation

Products for severe weather potential -heavy precipitation- MCGE stands for Multi Center Grand Ensemble It maps the area where the ensemble prediction

25 Products for severe weather potential -heavy precipitation- MCGE stands for Multi Center Grand Ensemble It maps the area where the ensemble prediction systems of ECMWF, JMA, NCEP and UKMO predict heavy precipitation. The red (orange, yellow, blue) color shows all (3, 2, 1) centers predict heavy precipitation.

26 Case 3: heavy rainfall in Japan (July 2011) observation Niigata, Japan (30 th July) Railway track before heavy rain No railway track after heavy rain!

27 Case 3: heavy rainfall in Japan (July 2011) Tokyo + 6-day forecast The heavy rainfall was highly predictable even in 6-day forecasts. + 5-day forecast

A review on recent progresses of THORPEX activities in JMA

4th THORPEX workshop 31 Oct. 2012, Kunming, China A review on recent progresses of THORPEX activities in JMA Masaomi NAKAMURA Typhoon Research Department Meteorological Research Institute / JMA Contents