ASIAN REGIONAL ACTIVITIES Overview of Asian THORPEX Regional Plans and Activities (Submitted by Tetsuo Nakazawa and Tadashi Tsuyuki)

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1 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX Ninth Session Geneva (21 22 September 2011) CAS/ICSC-9/DOC4.2 (13 VI.2011) Item: 4.2 ASIAN REGIONAL ACTIVITIES Overview of Asian THORPEX Regional Plans and Activities (Submitted by Tetsuo Nakazawa and Tadashi Tsuyuki) After the last ICSC-8 in November 2009, there were several activities under the ARC. These were: The 3rd Asian THORPEX Scientific Workshop The 7th Asian Regional Committee Meeting 1. The Third Asian THORPEX Science Symposium The Third Asian THORPEX Science Symposium was held in Seogipo, Republic of Korea, from 2 to 4 June There were five sessions in the meeting: (1) Opening and Invited talk (2) Overview of THORPEX related activities (3) Predictability, Observation system experiment, Observation field campaigns (4) Ensemble, TIGGE, Data assimilation (5) Dynamic processes and mechanisms, Applications There were 30 oral presentations and 10 posters. Prof. Russ Elsberry, NPS, had an invited talk on Typhoon-ocean field experiment ITOP 2010: An extension of TPARC/TCS-08 to improve typhoon forecasts. Dr. Jim Caughey, THORPEX IPO, made a presentation on Recent developments in the THORPEX programme. There was also discussion on the TIGGE related presentations including the Dr. Nakazawa(MRI) s talk of Predictability of High-Impact weathers using TIGGE ensemble data, the CMA upgraded TIGGE data archive center, and the KMA TIGGE activities. Near 70 researchers attended the meeting and the participants came from Japan, China, Russia, USA and Korea. 2. The Seventh ARC Meeting The 7th ARC meeting was held, just after the 3rd Asian THORPEX Scientific Workshop, in Seogipo, Republic of Korea, June At the meeting there were members from China(2), Japan(2), Korea(2), Russia(1) and many observers. No member from India was able to attend this meeting. In addition, Prof. Russ Elsberry, WGTMR representative, and Dr. Jim Caughey, WMO THORPEX IPO representative joined to the meeting. The objectives in this meeting were to exchange information on the recent progresses of the national THORPEX activities to implement the Asian THORPEX activities 2.1 Adoption of the minutes at the last ARC meeting After the chair explained the minutes of the 6th ARC meeting, the members adopted the minutes. 2.2 The Chair Report Before going to the main agenda, the chair addressed a short note on the ARC activities after the last ARC meeting. He introduced a new member after the 6th ARC meeting from

2 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 2 Japan, Mr. Ken-ichi Kuma, who took over Dr. Masashi Nagata, who was dispatched to a different position in JMA/HQ from April Status Reports There were two status reports from Russia and Japan at the ARC meeting and two presentations from China and Korea at the 3rd Asian THORPEX Scientific Workshop. All four status reports are covered here. (China) Dr. Dehui Chen presented the current status of the model development (GRAPES) and the development of the TIGGE Global Ensemble Prediction System. Currently there are four operational models in CMA, global spectral model with 30 km resolution up to 10 days, mesoscale model with 15 km resolution up to 3 days, 10 day global ensemble model with 60 km resolution and 15 members up to 10 days and a typhoon deterministic and ensemble forecast model with 60 km resolution up to 10 days (15 ensemble members). He showed the result of the GRAPES 15 km meso model for local domains, such as Guang Zhou in South China for tropical weather forecasts. He also showed an improved forecast result using radar radial wind and reflectivity in GRAPES 3DVAR system. (Korea) Dr. Dong-Eon Chang presented the progress of THORPEX activities in KMA. He showed UKMO based KMA operational NWP system, TIGGE related activities (such as QPF using TIGGE, sensitivity analysis and OSSE studies), and Special Field Experiment 2009, and regional ensemble forecast with 16 members for high-impact weather forecasts in Korea. He also reported that KMA will have a new R/V and aircraft. KMA made the enhanced observation to analyze the urbanizing and topographical effects on hazardous weather phenomena from August 14 to September 4 around the Seoul metropolitan area. (Japan) Mr. Kuma presented the forecast of the high impact weather at JMA. The JMA global NWP has been remarkably improved in the last ten years, mainly due to the increased resolution and the better use of the satellite data. The meso-scale model has also been improved through the better use of the remote sensing data including GPS ground station data. He has emphasized the importance of the collaboration among Asian countries towards the common targets such as Typhoons and Meiyu-Changma-Baiu front systems. (Russia) Dr. Oleg Pokrovsky reported on his study addressed to the optimization of the upper sounding network in Russia. Several scenarios have been developed for the Siberian RAOB extension. The minimal and sufficient network configurations more or less uniformly distributed in the Siberia and ranged from 18 to 43 sites should provide various rates of the NWP requirement satisfactions. Special concern is related to the RAOB sparse data area in the North-East part of Asia. 2.4 Future ARC activities The members discussed the future ARC direction/activities as follows THORPEX mid-term review There were several comments on this. First of all, we discussed the mid-term review in relation to the THORPEX activity being carried out by the ARC members. Secondly it was agreed that the ARC would like to submit a short paper to the review to ensure that all the THORPEX activities in the Asian region were properly captured in the review SWFDP-South Asia

3 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 3 Mr. Kuma proposed the collaboration with the Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in South Asia. We agreed the direction to share the information with the SWFDP and to send a contact person to the meeting TIGGE for four themes in ARC The ARC identified four themes, which we would like to focus on; Typhoons, heavy monsoonal precipitation, Sand and Dust Storms and the MJO. It was also agreed to develop a system to predict high-impact weather potential using the TIGGE databases. 2.5 ARC structure Dr. Nakazawa proposed the following items. - THORPEX Science Workshop Currently we hold a THORPEX Science Workshop once a year. In order to expand more participation to the workshop, Dr. Nakazawa proposed to change the name of the workshop, such as Science Workshop on Predicting High-impact weather Events and to hold every two years. Dr. Chang said that we have several workshops, focusing on highimpact weathers and we actually attend to these workshops, too. Dr. Nakazawa explained that the naming THORPEX is a bit specific and suggested the following name THORPEX Science Workshop Our Challenge to predict high-impact weather events. We need further discussion on naming, but basically it was agreed to hold the workshop every two years. - Working Groups Dr. Nakazawa proposed four working groups under the ARC; PDP, DAOS, GIFS-TIGGE and NWP. After the discussion we agreed to start from the two WGs, GIFS-TIGGE and NWP. We need the NWP WG, to discuss more in detail among members. We need the GIFS- TIGGE WG, to implement and further develop the application of the TIGGE databases in Asia. We agreed the following; WG Chairs are members of ARC Number of members in the WG is not limited Each country recommends WG members nomination by the end of this year to the ARC Chair Reports from the WGs will be prepared for the coming ARC next year 2.6 Action Items The 7th ARC meeting agreed the following action items. ARC-7/1 THORPEX IPO to give the contact point of the SWFDP South Asia to the ARC Chair ARC-7/2 THORPEX IPO to provide detailed information on the content of the THORPEX mid term review to the ARC Chair ARC-7/3 ARC members to provide imput for the Asian THORPEX mid-term review contribution to the ARC Chair ASAP ARC-7/4 ARC Chair to give a draft of the Asian THORPEX mid-term review contribution to the ARC members ASAP ARC-7/5 ARC members to nominate candidates for the NWP and GIFS-TIGGE Working Group to the ARC Chair by the end of this year ARC-7/6 A member of Japan will inform to the ARC members on the next ARC meeting information ASAP 2.7 On the next ARC meeting

4 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 4 Dr. Nakazawa indicated that the next meeting would be in Japan, but he said that the final decision would be communicated to the members later. 3. Status Report from China 3.1 Main Activities in THORPEX-China Committee and Working groups New Chairperson: XiaoFeng Xu (Deputy Administrator of CMA) New Vice Chairpersons: MeiYan Jiao (Deputy Administrator of CMA), ZheMin Tan (Professor, Univ. of NanJing) Three Working Groups: PDP WG,DAOS-WG,TIGGE-WG Focus of TIGGE-WG: TIGGE-CXML typhoon forecasting,tigge rainstorm forecasting Focus of DAOS-WG: Adaptive data assimilation Focus of PDP-WG: Tropic convection and vortex,dynamics of convection, Terrain effects THORPEX-China committee has successfully co-organized the 1st YOTC International Science Symposium at CMA conference center from 16 to 18 May, 2011 The WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX 1st International Science Symposium for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) was held at the CMA Conference Center, May 16-18, 2011, supported by THORPEX-China Committee. The meeting was extremely productive with excellent participation, including over 100 participants from numerous countries. The meeting format included 6 theme-based sessions spanning the YOTC science focus areas, and afforded 20 invited talks, 5 poster sessions with over 80 posters, and 5 plenary discussion sessions. In the opening session, overviews of the scientific motivation for YOTC, the synoptic description of the YOTC period, and the Giovanni-based satellite data resources available for YOTC were described. Subsequent sessions focused on: 1) MJO and other convectively coupled waves, 2) easterly waves and tropical cyclones, 3) seamless prediction and hierarchical modeling, 4) tropical-extratropical interaction, and 5) monsoon intraseasonal variability and AMY. Additional details regarding the Symposium, including a complete agenda, can be found on the YOTC website: Presentations at the Symposium will be added to the website in the near future. In summary, it was clear that the 2-year YOTC focus period and the notable events within it, which represent distinct climate states, are attracting very significant research interest within the international community. Recent monitoring identifies several hundred active users of the databases. A particular highlight is the increasing engagement of the Asian scientists in the YOTC project. This is a very important step towards the establishment of increasingly close links between YOTC and AMY. The joint session with AMY during this Symposium was a notable success. Highlights included presentations that reflect some significant advances in understanding, and modest gains in the representation of the MJO and tropical cyclones in GCMs and global NWP models. This implies utility and tradeoffs between hierarchical approaches to meet the challenge of seamless prediction in both research and operational contexts. This includes the identification of research issues with emphasis on the intersection of weather and climate, i.e., timescales up to seasonal Involved in more activities of THORPEX-International program - The Eighth Session of THORPEX International Core Steering Committee (ICSC-8) - The 8th meeting of the THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group - The 7th and 8th TIGGE Working Group Meeting

5 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 5 - ET-EPS Meeting Established THORPEX-China Website ( and published Newsletters Supported Shanghai Word Expo 2010 and Guangzhou Asian Games The application of TIGGE typhoon ensemble prediction products in Shanghai World Expo Nowcasting and mesoscale ensemble prediction RDP program was launched to participate in Sochi Winter Olympic Games in Conducted some field campaign related projects - Observation Experiment of Mesoscale Predictability on Summer Rainstorm around Beijing Area The project "The Summer Storm Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Demonstration around Beijing Area" was launched in Oct, 2007.The field observation experiment was carried out to determine the sensitive observation area for Beijing summer rainstorm forecasting through diagnostic analysis and numerical simulation. It set up an adaptive observation system to study the impact of the observation in the sensitive areas on rainstorm forecast around Beijing area. The observation project mainly focused on intensive and enhanced temporal and spatial observation under severe rainstorm conditions using operational upper air observations, GPS radiosonde observations, wind profilers, Doppler radar and regional AWS network. The Continuous observation period was from June to August and continuous intensive observation was from July 20 to August 20. There were only three processes could be arranged for more enhanced observation. With the observation dataset acquired from the field experiment, a research was carried out on Tianjin Dagang GPS radiosonde sensitivity. - South China Heavy Rainfall Experiments (SCHeREX) (Zhang et al., J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 2011) The South China Heavy Rainfall Experiments (SCHeREX) was staged during 2008 and 2009 in the southern part of China by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences under the support of the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology and China Meteorological Administration. SCHeREX aims at obtaining abundant observational datasets at the meso-b scale, better understanding of the structure and evolution of heavy precipitation systems in south China, exploring establishment of an operational platform for heavy rainfall monitoring and prediction, and improving the ability of heavy rainfall monitoring and prediction. Four zones were selected in SCHeREX, namely, the southern China, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley, the Huai River valley, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. The observation phases were May 1 June 10 in the southern China zone and June 10 July 20 in the other three zones. The efforts have led to the establishment of the meso-scale observing networks with enhanced capacity to observe precipitation systems at the meso-b scale level. The collected data have been utilized in meso-scale reanalysis not only to reveal the fine structures of the precipitation systems but also to provide better initial conditions for meso-scale numerical models to make short-term forecasts. Assimilation of the dropsonde data has improved the analysis of the locations and intensities of typhoons Goni and Morakot. With the real-time field data being part of the forecast system, the experiments have allowed more efficient interactions between the observing system and the forecast system and thus improve the performance of meso-scale heavy rainfall forecasts Achievements in operation

6 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 6 - FY3A VASS data was provided via GTS (Global L1c produce). - Regional ensemble prediction system (joint TIGGE-LAM) was put into operational at 1 Jun Typhoon ensemble forecast system was run operationally (TIGGE-RDP) - The new severe convective forecast products was operationally provided to the forecaster users Participation in the typhoon research demonstration projects (RDP) of THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE during the Shanghai World Expo Based on a single ensemble prediction products, investigated the ensemble mean forecast in typhoon track prediction in Northwest Pacific Ocean and South China Sea - Optimization of weighting coefficient for different ensemble prediction products, research Meta-synthesis method, development the super-ensemble forecast probability products - By comparison of the ability of multi-model ensemble multi-initial ensemble and single ensemble prediction products and other numerical forecast products, further perfect Meta-synthesis method and probability products - Submitted an evaluation report The research of the key application technology of TIGGE ensemble prediction (1) New global ensemble forecasting initial perturbation methods have been studied. The number of ensemble members was increased based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique, which could improve the operational ensemble forecasting. (2) The forecasting uncertainty of operational NWP models was studied, and spatial and temporal characters of the error distribution of the operational T213 global model, revealing the important influence of moisture to model and the parameterization scheme of wet phase transition was considered to be a main factor of the model forecasting errors. (3) Multi-center ensemble forecasting products have been used to study the multimodel super ensemble forecasting applied techniques and the moving average training model based on artificial neural networks was established. (4) The regional ensemble forecasting initial perturbation techniques have been developed, and a regional ensemble forecasting pilot system has been established based on TIGGE data. (5) Based on the global and regional ensemble forecasting system, the forecasting and decision methods and techniques of hydrological risk have been studied. Taking the Yishusi small watershed as an example, the meteorological-hydrological coupled model techniques and downscaling techniques based on the small watershed have been established, hydrological probabilistic risk forecasting methods of river basins have been developed, and the conceptual model of flood forecasting decision on the basis of user demands has been preliminarily established. The distinguishing feature of project achievements is that the global multi-center ensemble products (TIGGE data) have been first applied to the research of super ensemble forecasting techniques and probabilistic risk forecasting techniques. Taken hydrological forecasting as an example, an interactive forecasting model combining the forecast with user information has been preliminarily established, that is, a new method that integrates the probabilistic risk forecasting with user demands and information feedback based on forecasting uncertainties to make the risk forecasting has been successfully realized. 3.2 Plans in future

7 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p To increase the support to THORPEX scientific research projects - To promote the development of the approval of the THORPEX scientific research projects during , especially for the dynamic process and predictability (PDP), data assimilation and observation system (DAOS), serve for the need of forecast and observation network - To promote the project approval of the meteorological observation and numerical simulation system and the research of station network in our country during 2010, provide the general platform for the scientific design and effect evaluation of the meteorological observation system in our country To further enhance the Beijing TIGGE archive center To propose that CMA's TIGGE website update to provide better customer service interface and more convenient customer service. Meanwhile strengthen TIGGE-CXML typhoon forecast data collection and transformation, TIGGE information in rainstorm forecasting. To continue the project the research of the key application technology of TIGGE ensemble prediction and the continuation work of the project the research of interactive application technology based on the multi-model ensemble prediction To promote the development of the TIGGE CXML typhoon demonstration projects and develop the research and application of the TIGGE typhoon ensemble prediction products during the shanghai World Expo To organize the medium-term summary of THORPEX-China - The 10-year THORPEX plan has been more than half. Other countries have begun to summarize the achievement of the plans. Thus, we propose to organize the mediumterm summary of THORPEX-China and related papers The Third Tibetan Plateau Experiment for Atmospheric Sciences Tibetan Plateau is the third pole of the Earth. Its unique geographical environment determines that Plateau Meteorology has long been the constraint on the development of atmospheric sciences in China. The overall objectives of this experiment are, through the third Tibetan Plateau Experiment of Atmospheric Sciences, to optimize the comprehensive meteorological observation system on and surround the plateau, to develop the satellite remote sensing - terrestrial integrated observations re-analysis techniques; to clarify the plateau energy cycle, the material cycle, and the water cycle, to enhance the understanding of the plateau impacts on China s and global weather and climate; and to improve the prediction of China's disastrous weather and the response capacity to the climate change Field experiment on Convective Clouds and Heavy Monsoon Rainfall As a follow-up field experiment of the SCHeREX (Zhang et al., J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 2011), it will focus on the interaction between convective clouds and heavy monsoon rainfall in South China during the onset period of the South China Sea monsoon. Its scientific gaols are understanding micro-physical processes in the convective clouds, thermal and dynamic as well as hydrometeor structures and their evolution, relations of meso-scale system with synoptic and planetary systems. It aims at improving cloud model, assimilating intra-cloud parameters, and thus raising the capability for heavy rainfall forecasts in South China. 4. Status Report from India 4.1 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) of tropical cyclone over north Indian ocean

8 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 8 During the past few years huge technological advancements have been achieved elsewhere in the world to observe the inner core of the cyclone. Accordingly a programme has been evolved on prediction of track of tropical cyclone over north Indian ocean in collaboration with USA resulting in planning of the Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) over the north Indian ocean. FDP programme is aimed to demonstrate the ability of various NWP models to assess the genesis, intensification and movement of cyclones over the north Indian ocean with enhanced observations over the data sparse region and to incorporate modification into the models which could be specific to the Bay of Bengal based on the in-situ measurements and following the actual track through Satellite and Radar observations. FDP Programme is scheduled to be implemented in three phases. (i) Pre- pilot phase : Oct-Nov. 2008, 2009 (ii) Pilot phase : Oct-Nov. 2010, 2011 (iii) Final phase : Oct-Nov Several national institutions participated for joint observational, communicational & NWP activities during the pre-pilot and pilot phases of FDP campaign. Enhanced observations during Intense Observation Period (IOP) helped in improved monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances. The additional data was collected from Sagar Kanya cruise, enhanced AWS network of the coast, five activated buoy observations from the Bay of Bengal, Oceansat-II observations, microwave imagery products and the Tropical Cyclone module in Synergie System. As a result of above, the cyclone track forecast errors reduced in 2010 compared to previous FDP campaign. It also helped in refining the Standard Operating Procedure and strengthening the multi-institutional mechanism. Various lessons were also learnt from these FDP campaigns, which will further help in improving the campaign in future i.e. we should have better logistic support for the coastal observatories and ships to ensure good collection of data, better data reception from the coastal stations of all WMO/ESCAP Panel countries on real time basis, improved buoy network, improved NWP model guidance, objective analysis of various cyclogenesis, intensification and track forecast parameters, structured satellite and radar bulletin and DWR data with uniform scanning strategy for mosaicing and NWP modeling. Area of FDP Cyclone

9 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p STORM Programme Background The atmospheric science community in India has launched a field campaign to understand the mechanism of genesis, development and decay of pre-monsoon severe thunder storms known as Nor westers for the recent years in a pre-pilot/pilot campaign mode. The Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) program is conceived as a multidisciplinary nationally co-ordinated research and development programme and has been carried out as a multi-year observational-cum modeling campaign with an objective to build appropriate operational early warning systems for highly damaging severe thunderstorms over eastern and northeastern parts of India. The STORM Programme is a multi-year exercise and is quite complex in the formulation of its strategy for implementation. It needs different surface-based observational platforms to be organized on meso-net basis. Therefore, it was proposed that before the formal program begins, it is necessary that a few PILOT campaigns are launched in the pre-monsoon season of which would help in gaining experience for the implementation of the main program subsequently from 2012 to With a gradual organization of desired observational support involving interested academic groups over eastern India. Four STORM Pilot experimental campaigns were organized during pre-monsoon seasons of 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010 respectively SAARC STORM Programme Activities in 2009 Considering the importance of thunderstorms over the whole SAARC region, the 1st meeting of the Coordination Programme Committee held at India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi during April 2009 recommended that the STORM programme be renamed as SAARC STORM, and a Pilot field experiment be conducted in a coordinated way with the 4 countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) to study Nor westers during 1-31 May Accordingly, a Pilot experiment was conducted to collect intensive field observation in the four countries in a coordinated way in May STORM advisories based on synoptic features and model products were made by IMD, Delhi on every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, and communicated to SMRC during the Pilot experiment It also declared IOPs for India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. A SAARC STORM Team was setup at SMRC, which received the advisories from IMD, discussed the situations, and communicated to the participating countries. A DVD containing observations collected during the Pilot field experiment 2009 has been made and has been distributed to all the member states and archived in the STORM data bank for future research by the scientific community in this field SAARC STORM Programme Activities in 2010 The STORM pilot phase 2010 was completed successfully with encouraging participation from the neighbouring countries Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh under SAARC STORM program.the experimental period witnessed cyclonic storm towards the end of the STORM phase which influenced the weather activity over the project area and was studied in detail Objectives of SAARC STORM Programme in coming years Evolve strategies for critically examining systems of large scale, synoptic scale and mesoscale aspects of the Nor wester environment, planetary boundary layer processes, convective dynamics, cloud microphysics and electrification for better understanding of atmospheric processes during different stages of convective development based on DWR data over the region. Launch activities for modeling meso-scale convection over the region and validate available single column and cloud resolving models with the data to be collected.

10 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 10 Area of STORM Programme Commonwealth Games The 2010 Commonwealth Games (CWG) were in New Delhi--the national Capital of India during 3-14 October As the weather presents specific challenges in holding various competitions, which are located in complex terrain consisting of Yamuna River and Aravali Hills and are often characterized by tricky weather conditions, such as high winds, low visibility, and rapidly varying precipitation types and intensity, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the National Meteorological Service of India provided best possible guidance and support to the CWG Organizing Committee as per their requirement. The support and guidance included current weather information and forecast in different time ranges from nowcasting to medium range forecasting over a broader region to specific locations catering to individual sports events. To meet the above users demand, IMD adopted a multi-pronged approach which included climatological guidance based on past observational data, synoptic guidance with advanced instrumentations like automatic weather stations (AWS), Doppler Weather radar (DWR), satellite observations and several Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. The developed NWP systems for the Games included (1) Advance Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Model, (2) high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting Variational data assimilation system (WRF-VAR) down to 3km horizontal grid-spacing, (3) Nowcast system Delhi PP, (4) Nowcast system WDSSII( based on Delhi Radar data) and (5) Nowcast system SWIRLS (Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems) based on Delhi Radar data.

11 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 11 The forecast demonstration during CWG-2010 has opened up new avenues for IMD to explore the possibility of introducing Mega-city Forecasting for the major cities in the country. Hence, the documentation of the forecast demonstration during CWG-2010 along with the lesions learnt will be very helpful for planning and execution of the Mega-city Forecasting Project. Considering this, a report has been brought out highlighting various monitoring and forecasting aspects with special emphasis on NWP systems inducted for taking a synergistic view of the available weather information and issue now-casts, together with performance evaluation and lesions learnt during CWG Area of Commonwealth Games 5. Status Report from Japan 5.1 Update and distribution of operational EPSs products JMA operates the One-week EPS once a day at 12 UTC up to nine days ahead. The gridded data from October 2006 are archived as a TIGGE dataset. The products in graphical format are available on the JMA website for participating NMHSs currently of Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in RA V and also for SWFDP in Southeast Asia in the future. In the past two years, three updates were conducted. In December 2010, a stochastic physics scheme was introduced as a model ensemble method in the One-week EPS in order to represent model uncertainties. In March 2011, the amplitude of the initial perturbation (IP) was reduced and the IP was expanded into the

12 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 12 southern hemisphere. These revisions contribute to appropriate ensemble spread and improve the forecast skill. In addition, JMA operates the Typhoon EPS four times a day at most with a forecast range of 132 hours. The tropical cyclone tracks in CXML format derived from the Typhoon EPS as well as the One-week EPS are routinely distributed in the TIGGE project. The EPS model and the IP generator are the same as those of the One-week EPS. In May 2010, the IP target zone centered on the predicted typhoon position was revised and the IP initial amplitude was also reduced. These revisions improve the spread-skill relationship of TC track forecasting. The stochastic physics scheme was also implemented in the Typhoon EPS in December 2010 to enable use of the same forecast model as the One-week EPS. 5.2 Tropical cyclone ensemble forecast information website The Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) has operated, since May 2010, a website for ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee members and interested researchers around the world to allow visualization, comparison and verification of ensemble forecasts provided by multiple NWP centers using TIGGE Cyclone XML (CXML) data. The site provides TC forecast tracks with the track analyzed in real time by JMA and information on strike probabilities, i.e., the chances of a TC coming within 120 km of certain points. These probabilities are plotted on a map for each forecast time and for a period of four days. Time series representations of distances to the TC center and strike probabilities are also shown for major or coastal cities and islands. 5.3 TIGGE monitoring and verification website This research website compares the ensemble forecasts produced by the TIGGE data providers. It includes a comparison of selected verification statistics for the TIGGE forecasts and a comparison of forecasts ( 5.4 Support for the Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in Southeast Asia Southeast Asian countries (Cambodia, Lao, Thailand, and Vietnam) are implementing the SWFDP, to mitigate disasters due to high-impact weathers, such as typhoons and flooding. To support SWFDP in Southeast Asia, the MRI is preparing a website to provide the probability of extreme events such as heavy precipitation based on TIGGE data, in addition to the tropical cyclone ensemble forecast information website. 5.5 TIGGE-related Research Research on tropical cyclones Yamaguchi and Majumdar (Mon.Wea.Rev. 2010) investigated the structure and the growth mechanisms of ensemble initial perturbations around Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) using the TIGGE data from the ECMWF, NCEP and JMA EPS, and demonstrated the connection between the perturbation growth and the ensemble spread of typhoon tracks. Yamaguchi et al. (J.Atmos.Sci. 2011, accepted) studied the basic properties of singular vectors in the vicinity of tropical cyclones using a barotropic model. Singular vectors with large singular values that result in the displacement of a vortex were found to be important when creating ensemble initial perturbations or sensitivity analysis guidance. Yamaguchi et al. (Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc. 2011, submitted) conducted a verification study on tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific using the TIGGE data. A relative benefit of multi-center grand ensemble with respect to single-model ensembles and multi-center ensembles was seen in a verification of detecting best track scenarios by ensemble predictions Research on predictability

13 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 13 Matsueda (Geophys.Res.Lett. 2011) investigated the predictabilities of extreme Euro- Russian blocking that caused a strong heat wave over Eastern Europe and Western Russian in early August of 2010, using operational medium-range ensemble forecasts: CMC, ECMWF, JMA, NCEP, and UKMO. The results show that the blocking in June August of 2010 was easily predictable, even for a lead time of +216 hr; however, the blocking that occurred from 30th July to 9th August showed a lower predictability in forecasts over +144 hr compared with other blocking occurrences in JJA of This low predictability resulted in the failure to predict the extreme temperatures associated with the mature blocking in early August. Matsueda and Endo (Geophys.Res.Lett. 2011) assessed the forecast performance of operational medium-range ensemble forecasts, regarding the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) for the period The results indicate that ECMWF and UKMO generally yield the best performances in predicting the MJO; however, the best performing numerical weather prediction centre varies with the phase of the MJO. With advance knowledge of the forecast characteristics of each NWP centre, more reliable forecasts of the MJO can be ensured in operational uses, based on the MJO phase. A real-time MJO forecast using the TIGGE data is available at 6. Status Report from Korea The objectives of this research project are to enhance the short and medium range predictability for severe weather phenomena (heavy rainfall, typhoon, etc.), to convert the observation system paradigm by establishing the virtuous circle of observation and forecast, and to study the research-purpose numerical prediction system as well as physical processes of severe weather, based on the cutting-edge observation data in Korea. The final goal is to make advancements of the forecast technology for enhancing the predictability of severe weather phenomena. 6.1 Special observation campaigns In 2010, the Forecast Research Division of the National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) relocated the National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather to Boseong in order to improve the environment for observations. Along this, we prepared the basis to develop the National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather in Korea into a more advanced observation center in East Asia by extending the observation objectives from severe weather observation to the verification and improvement of the cloud physical processes that are most difficult to parameterize in the numerical model. As a precursory observation study, a precipitation event on June 25-26, 2010 and a Typhoon "KOMPASU" event in September 1-2, 2010 were analyzed by using data from the wind profiler, micro rain radar, and optical rain gauge at the National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather in Boseong. During most of the analysis period for the rainfall events, stratiform structures were dominantly observed. There existed a weakly positive correlation between radar reflectivities and vertical velocities during the brief

14 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 14 convective period. It is thought that drop growth by updrafts up to ~4 m/s crossing over the melting layer probably contributed to the increase of rainfall rates at the surface. In the case of the Typhoon "KOMPASU", as the center of the typhoon gets closer to the metropolitan areas, a notable increase in the wind speed and turbulence was observed below the melting layer. There existed the strongest bright band in the region of the rainbands. The analysis showed that a lot of damages that occurred in the Seoul metropolitan areas are due to the increase of the rainfall rates over 50 mm/hr in association with the updrafts, maximum reflectivity, and maximum wind speed that were observed in the eyewall region around the km level below the melting layer. Moreover, the validation for cloud base heights observed by the ceilometer was performed by comparing with those from the radiosonde data. We have performed the observation program for the improvement of the predictability for severe weather. In order to improve the severe weather predictability and strengthen the monitoring capability, a special observation was carried out in Dongducheon, Yangpyeong, and the Incheon Airport from August 14 to September 4, The regular GPS observation network was established at the Incheon Weather Station and the Songwol-dong Observation Station in Seoul. In this study, we investigated the result of the upper air observation evaluation performed during the observation period as well as the upper air instability based on the evaluation. We also classified the rainfall events and reviewed the synoptic properties for each event. Moreover, we provided the information about the regular GPS observation network establishment and the composition of the calculation and display system for the GPS precipitable water vapor. Site distribution Equipments Location Radiosonde (RAOB) Micro Rain Radar (MRR) Sky picture (TSI) GPS (GPS) WXT-510 (WXT) Rain gauge (RGE) Incheon airport, Dongducheon, Yangpyeong Incheon airport, Dongducheon, Yangpyeong Incheon airport, Yangpyeong Incheon, Seoul Incheon airport Incheon airport The radiosonde observation as a part of the special observation in the Seoul metropolitan areas in 2010 was conducted and only three of the total launches were failed. However, from the middle of the observation period, the number of observation hindrance was increased because of the GPS reception disturbance occurred in Korea. As regards the rainfall characteristics at each location, although the precipitation type was similar among the

15 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 15 locations because of the synoptic nature, there was a clear difference in the amount of precipitation, indicating that the geographical features and the urban environment affected the precipitation amount and rate. In particular, a significant difference was found between the Incheon Airport and Incheon city, though they are close with each other. The rain rate was higher in the Incheon Airport than in other locations but the total precipitation was highest in Incheon city. For wind components, we verified the general characteristic that the wind speed was strong in the locations that were near to the coast. The atmospheric instability was investigated by using the radiosonde data and the result showed that the increased thermodynamic instability was the major cause of the rainfall before the middle of the observation period because of the seasonal factors, whereas the dynamic instability by the effect of the Typhoon "KOMPASU" was the main cause of the rainfall occurrence after the middle of the observation period. A total of six rainfall events during the observation period were classified. In CASE-1, the rainfall occurred as the cold front developed at the back side of the low-pressured that had passed over the Korean Peninsula was combined with the stationary front developed over the West Sea. In CASE-2, the rainfall occurred during the daytime as the rain cell that had developed in Chungcheong region was flowed into the Seoul metropolitan areas along the southwest current. In CASE-5, the rainfall occurred as the air-pressure system movement became slower due to the blocking high formed by the Cut-off low developed at 500 hpa in China. Events Periods Reason of occurrence CASE-1 14 Aug. ~ 15 Aug. Cold front CASE-2 18 Aug. ~ 20 Aug. Shower CASE-3 23 Aug. ~ 25 Aug. Late changma CASE-4 27 Aug. Urban & topographic effect CASE-5 29 Aug. ~ 30 Aug. Blocking CASE-6 1 Sep. ~ 2 Sep. Typhoon 6.2 Predictability of severe weather The severe weather characteristics in the Seoul metropolitan areas were also analyzed by the special observation there. To investigate the effects of Seoul metropolitan areas on the rainfall forecast during the special observation period, we performed the sensitivity analysis using the mesoscale model, WRF-3DVAR. It was showed that the inclusion of the special observation data collected in the Seoul metropolitan areas into the conventional observation network had a positive effect in improving the rainfall predictability in the Seoul metropolitan areas. Also, according to the qualitative ETS analysis, it can greatly contribute to the improvement of the rainfall predictability, as the ETS score was increased by 23% when compared with that by the standard experiment.

16 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 16 To extend the prior forecast time to severe weather, the TIGGE data was used to examine the predictability of the severe weather in the Korean Peninsula. The BS and RMSE for the mean sea level pressure and 500 hpa geopotential height were verified, and the result showed that the RMSE of the Grand Ensemble was the smallest in general, indicating a high predictability. The analysis of the events in July 9 and August 12, 2009 showed that the medium and long range forecast over five days is possible, although the performance was different among the ensemble models depending on the forecast time. 6.3 Targeting observing strategy The fundamental study was conducted to establish the targeted observation strategy system that can contribute to the improvement of forecast capability by visiting the sensitive regions to the numerical model and performing observation there. In this study, the sensitivity of the analysis field was investigated for the forecast field of 48, 24, and 12 hours using the ensemble sensitive analysis method. The result showed that the sensitivity was high in the West Sea of the Korean Peninsula, and Huabei and Huazhong regions in China, although it was varied depending on the parameters of the analysis field. Additionally, we performed the data assimilation experiment with simulated observation in the sensitive regions by calculating the sensitivity for the case on August 3, 2007, and the result showed that the predictability was improved. The locations of the sensitive regions were investigated

17 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 17 by applying the case of the Typhoon "KOMPASU", and the result showed that the sensitive regions were located in the foregoing and backward sides, and the right semicircle of the typhoon horizontally, and the middle and low layer of the atmosphere vertically. (a) June (b) July (c) August 7. Status Report from Russia 7.1 Optimization of Siberian RAOB A comprehensive analysis of relationship between the optimized Siberian RAOB network configurations and actual locations of the existed sites was performed. This analysis demonstrated that despite of significant extension of the RAOB network, there are several areas which provide potentially important information content, but have insufficient or absent in the network data coverage. Those are located in the northern parts of the West and East Siberia, as well as the North-Eastern domain of the Asia. As a result many of the sites entered in the scenarios of sufficient RAOB networks were not represented in current net. Specific scenarios for the adaptive observations addressed to the polar areas of Siberia have been developed. Our recommendations include a range for location of the adaptive observations in remote areas of the Polar Siberia, where organization of any stationary sites is a very economically uncertain. (Oleg Pokrovsky). 7.2 Verification of satellite data A comparison of the satellite derived temperature vertical profiles over North Siberia and corresponding co-located RAOB data have been carried out. This study demonstrated a considerable bias between these data sets. Mentioned fact might be explained by the significant contamination of the outgoing IR and microwave radiances (registered by satellite radiometers) by heavy cloudiness during a most part of the year. It is confirmed by the ISCCP statistics. A verification study for the monthly rain rate estimation in the Siberia has been carried out. A comparison between the gridded rain rate fields obtained from the satellite and the ground base gauge data showed that the most considerable disagreement is occurred in the

18 CAS/ICSC-9/Doc.4.2, p. 18 northern parts of the West and East Siberia, as well as the North-Eastern domain of the Asia. (Oleg Pokrovsky). 7.3 Research on data assimilation Data assimilation system A unified 3D-Var technology is developed at the HydroMetCentre of Russia. It is used both in the atmosphere and (operationally) in the global-ocean. In the atmosphere, the global version is now undergoing pre-operational tests, whilst a limited-area version is currently under development. One of the goals of the limited-area data assimilation is a Sochi-2014 Olympic Games meteorological project Satellite data assimilation A study aimed at estimation of AMSU-A observation-error covariances is completed (Gorin and Tsyrulnikov, Mon.Wea.Rev. 2011, accepted). The main findings include quite broad spatial and temporal correlations and significant cross-correlations between observation errors and forecast (background) errors Assimilation of rain data A novel procedure was developed for the joint assimilation of the remote sensing and ground based rain rate data. It was based on combination of the fuzzy analysis and neural network models. (Oleg Pokrovsky). 7.4 Estimation of model error statistics A study on objective estimation of model error statistics is underway. Meso-scale COSMO model forecasts and compared with in-situ observations and parameters of a stochastic-physics model-error model are estimated (Gorin and Tsyrulnikov). 7.5 Sochi-2014 Project The Sochi-2014 international project (FROST-2014, Forecasting and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed) is established in March The project s participants include Russian Weather Service, COSMO (COnsortium of Small-scale MOdelling), DWD (Germany), ARPA (Italy), Environment Canada, TIGGE-LAM, HIRLAM, NOAA, CMA, ZAMG (Austria), Uni Helsinki, Vaisala. Other participants are kindly invited. The project goal is highresolution limited-area deterministic and probabilistic forecasting of winter weather over complex terrain.