ASIAN REGIONAL ACTIVITIES Overview of Asian THORPEX Regional Plans and Activities (Submitted by Tetsuo Nakazawa)

Transcription

1 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX Seventh Session Geneva, Switzerland (18 20 November 2008) CAS/ICSC-7/DOC4.2 (26 X.2008) Item: 4.2 ASIAN REGIONAL ACTIVITIES Overview of Asian THORPEX Regional Plans and Activities (Submitted by Tetsuo Nakazawa) After the last ICSC-6 in April 2007, there were several activities under the ARC. These were: 5 th ARC Meeting THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Operations Planning Meeting T-PARC Experiment Status Report of the RA-II Rapporteur on WWRP-THORPEX There is a draft of the ARC regional activity plan which we have to discuss more on the upcoming ARC Meeting in Hangzhou in February th ARC meeting The 5 th ARC meeting was held in Tsukuba, July At the meeting there were members from China (1), India (1), Japan (2), Korea (2) and Russia (1) and many observers. One of the co-chairs of North American Regional Committee (Dave Parsons) and Dr. Zoltan Toth also joined on the first day through teleconference facility. The objectives in this meeting were to exchange information on the recent progresses of the national THORPEX activities to implement the observational plan for T-PARC in 2008 to adopt a new co-chair from Korea 1.1 Adoption of the minutes at the last ARC meeting After the chair explained the minutes of the 4 th ARC meeting, the members adopted the minutes. And the chair added on the election in the minutes. At the 4 th ARC meeting we could not elect a new chair and co-chairs and decided to vote through . In December 2006, we voted and a new chair and co-chairs were selected. Chair: Tetsuo Nakazawa, Japan Co-chairs: Dehui Chen, China Dong-Eon Chang, Korea 1.2 The ARC News Before going to the main agenda, the chair addressed a short note on the ARC activities after the last ARC meeting. He introduced three new members after the 4 th ARC meeting, Dr. Hatwar, India, Dr. Nagata, Japan, and Dr. Lee, Korea. Dr. Hatwar tried to come to the meeting and the WMO/IPO helped him to come, but unfortunately he could not come. The chair also explained that the T-PARC was approved as a THORPEX regional campaign at the ICSC-6.

2 CAS/ICSC-7/Doc.4.2, p Main Sessions There were the following sessions at the meeting: Status Reports T-PARC related Progress Reports T-PARC Implementation Plan Post T-PARC Activities i) Status Reports There were five papers in this session. The first two papers are on TIGGE at CMA by Drs. Gong and Zong. Dr. Gong presented the current status and future plan on the development of the TIGGE Global Ensemble Prediction System and TIGGE LAM with Beijing Olympic 2008 Research Demonstration Project at CMA. Dr. Zong showed the progress of the TIGGE Phase-I Archive and the development of the TIGGE data portal ( at CMA. A question came on a typhoon track data exchange if the TIGGE WG may provide such a data or not. As an action item, the chair will ask the TIGGE WG to provide the ensemble data of typhoon tracks from all available operation centres. Dr. Nagata reported the status on the THORPEX related activity at JMA and emphasized that many efforts at JMA are now converging to T-PARC in A question came on the promotion to the Typhoon Committee members, who are not the current ARC members, to join to the ARC/T-PARC activities. This is also put into an action item for the chair. Dr. Bohra represented the THORPEX-related activities in India. He explained that the new ministry, Ministry of Earth Sciences, has been created recently, which includes IMD, NCMRWF, IITM and INCOIS. He also showed that India is performing several field observation experiments. Interestingly India will deploy 80 Doppler radars in five years over the country. Dr. Oleg Pokrofsky talked about large-scale dynamics in the Arctic-Asian-Pacific region and understanding of atmospheric circulation regimes to show the importance of the SST and Arctic ice sheet information. And he further stressed that we need more upper-sounding observations in Russia, for example, along the coast in Arctic and in East Siberia, for better forecasting skill. We came to the conclusion that further efforts are needed to extend Russian RAOB network in northern Asia in accordance to scenarios developed and substantiated by Dr. Pokrovsky. ii) T-PARC related Progress Reports There were five papers in this session. Dr. Chen explained the China interests in T-PARC, including enhanced observation over land (especially over south-eastern surroundings of Tibetan Plateau and South of China), by aircraft over South China Sea and Driftsondes along 20 o N from Altitudes of Hawaii, research themes on the mechanism of high impact weathers, predictability and application. China proposal was accepted with 20 M Yuen RMB (2.6 M US$). Dr. Nakazawa followed to present the Japanese contribution to T-PARC; field observations (typhoon targeting, enhanced upper soundings and MTSAT rapid-scan operation and early Dvorak analysis), numerical prediction (sensitive area analysis, impact studies and quantitative prediction) and provision of information via Web page for T-PARC scientists. Mr. Yamaguchi explained the JMA typhoon ensemble prediction system and the sensitivity analysis of typhoon. He raised two issues in targeted observation; how do we decide WHEN and WHERE to fly and he added that the JMA will soon open a homepage on TC sensitivity analysis with ID and password, which will be obtained by sending an to thorpex@mri-jma.go.jp. Prof. Wu then presented on the DOTSTAR experiments for typhoon

3 CAS/ICSC-7/Doc.4.2, p. 3 and introduced the current international collaborative efforts on intercomparison of adaptive observing guidance for the western Pacific tropical cyclones. Dr. Lee gave a presentation on T-PARC related activities in Korea, covering KEOP, TIGGE, multi-model regional ensemble prediction and typhoon forecast (Typhoon WRF). iii) T-PARC Implementation Plan There were eight papers in this session. First Prof. Park presented a case study on the data impact by dropsonde observation on typhoon forecasts. He concluded that assimilation of dropsonde generally improves track, intensity and rainfall forecast for typhoon and optimal design of observational network is needed. Prof. Kim showed the results of an adjoint-based forecast sensitivity and singular vector analysis on Typhoon Rusa. The sensitive regions are located horizontally in the right half circle of the typhoon. There are some similarities and inconsistencies in the sensitive regions by the adjoint-based forecast sensitivity and singular vector guidance. Dr. Matsueda explained the TIGGE database and pointed out several critical issues and difficulties in using TIGGE data. Dr. Enomoto demonstrated an experimental ensemble reanalysis, called ALERA ( with T159L48, 40 members and 19 month run from May After the break, we asked both Drs. Parsons (from Meteo France, Toulouse, 10AM in France) and Toth (from Washington D.C, 4AM EST, US) to join the meeting via Internet. Before the meeting we had asked them to provide their presentation slides to show in the meeting room. Using Skype and PC with camera, they could see their presentation through camera. Dr. Parsons explained a comprehensive overview of T-PARC, including science objectives, current funding situation, and international collaboration issues and proposed an international T-PARC planning meeting in November (the venue is TBD). Dr. Toth demonstrated wintertime component of T-PARC to study the life cycle of perturbations as they affect high impact weather events over North America and the Arctic. After their talks, several questions came out from us and they answered in real-time. We really appreciate their participation, which provided very useful and important information to implement our T- PARC plan, from the different partners in the world. We had a preliminary consensus in establishment of the T-PARC science committee, working groups. Dr. Yoshizaki explained the plan of JAMSTEC on PALAU 2008, to understand the tropical cyclogenesis over the equatorial western Pacific. Dr. Nakazawa presented Observational Coordination Strategy, especially for targeted observation for T-PARC. To discuss this, Prof. Wu helped significantly to show us an example of the DOTSTAR operation. After the discussion, it is recommended that the targeted observation working group should be organized to coordinate all observational platforms internationally. This is an action item for chair and co-chairs. iv) Post TPARC activities The ARC has four themes; tropical cyclone, monsoonal severe rainfall, MJO and sand and dust storm. T-PARC 2008 will mainly focus on typhoon over the western North Pacific. But the question is that how do we contribute to other themes as post T-PARC activities. There were two papers in this session. Dr. Bohra explained a new forecast demonstration project with US to investigate the TC landfall over the Bay of Bengal. The research phase would be in 2007 and 2008, and the pilot phase in 2009 and 2010 and the main observation phase in Dr. Chen presented the current status on Sand and Dust Storm research in China, using GRAPES-DAM, which has been routinely run during spring since A question came out for two papers on how can the ARC or the THORPEX activity help. In the meeting there were no concrete answer, however, one of the candidates would be to provide probabilistic information on TC landfall over the Bay of Bengal or on strong wind over the desert in China, using the TIGGE ensemble data.

4 CAS/ICSC-7/Doc.4.2, p Action Items The 5 th ARC meeting agreed the following action items. ARC-5/1 ARC chair to request ensemble typhoon track data exchange to the TIGGE WG ARC-5/2 ARC chair to request to collect information on realtime data availability to the TIGGE WG ARC-5/3 ARC chair and co-chairs to promote Typhoon Committee members to join to ARC/T-PARC activities ARC-5/4 ARC chair and co-chars to coordinate all observational platforms internationally via mailing list ARC-5/5 ARC chair and co-chars to set up Committee and WGs for T-PARC, especially with international partners ARC-5/6 ARC chair to request enhanced regular radiosonde observations in the Arctic and North-East Russia domains during T-PARC in 2008 to the Roshydromet (Dr. Alexander Frolov) and the Central Aerological Observatory (Dr. Alexander Ivanov) in Russia 1.5 Adoption of a new co-chair from Korea Although there is no requirement in the current Terms of Reference (TOR) of the ARC to adopt a new co-chair at the next meeting after finish of the former co-chair s task, we followed the procedure of the adoption for chair in the TOR. Dr. Hee-San Lee was adopted as a new co-chair, by taking over Dr. Dong-Eon Chang. 1.6 On the next ARC meeting Dr. Chen kindly proposed the next meeting in China in April T-PARC Operations Planning Meeting 2.1 Overview The T-PARC Operations Planning Meeting was held in Tsukuba, April The JMA web site for the meeting is available at There were about 30 participants for the meeting, including 13 foreign scientists from Germany (2), Taiwan (1), USA (6) and Korea (4). The main objectives of the meeting were: to implement/finalize the T-PARC operations, to solve the remaining issues, related to the T-PARC operations, to illustrate/simulate the observational scenarios toward the accomplishment of the T- PARC scientific objectives. 2.2 Coordination of the observations One of the main concerns in this meeting was how we coordinate several observational platforms in the T-PARC period. These platforms are five aircrafts (DLR Falcon, NRL P-3, two US Air Force WC-130s and DOTSTAR ASTRA), driftsondes, upper-sounding sites, ships and satellites. Also there was a concern how we coordinate to finalize the flight plan for the aircrafts. The extensive discussions were also made on the timeline to prepare the flights for the aircrafts.

5 CAS/ICSC-7/Doc.4.2, p. 5 Prof. Pat Harr showed a scenario of the timeline for the 00UTC takeoff of aircrafts. Dr. Jim Moore proposed to finalize the T-PARC Operations plan. 2.3 Dream Scenario Prof. Pat Harr presented a Dream Case of the observation by multi-aircrafts for different scientific objectives. That is, at early developing stage of tropical cyclone, P-3 and WC-130s will have an operation near Guam, to make a detailed observation for the cloud systems. At fully developing stage, P-3 and WC-130 will fly from Guam to Okinawa to chase tropical cyclone. Just before the re-curvature stage, Falcon and ASTRA will be ready to make a targeting observation over the high sensitivity area. After re-curvature toward extra-tropical transition, then Falcon and P-3 will work for tropical cyclone. 2.4 Action Items For JMA: Add timeline items from JMA decision planning and products to project time line Provide JMA special projects to Operations Plan (schedule, description) Make arrangement for 1hourly satellite derived motion vectors (using 15 in images) available through JMA server Follow-up with ATC on DLR and other aircraft access to Japan air space for T-PARC observations (including advance notification, flight plan details and modification procedures Develop repository for sensitivity products, including formats (GRIB) and special header For Korea: Provide details of project for operations plan Provide details of model output (MM5, and sensitivity products) and available times For DOTSTAR Provide details of project for operations plan (ADSSV) Develop strategy of joint dropsonde flights with JMA Develop repository for sensitivity products, including formats (GRIB) and special header For DLR: ATC Coordination and establishing procedures for flight planning and operations Provide details of project for operations plan Communication protocols for multiple aircraft operations (crew to crew dedicated radio frequency (UHF, VHF) For ECMWF, Process and plot data via PREVIEW For EOL Field Catalogue Participants provide products and locations where products can be accessed for display on the catalogue 3. T-PARC Experiment The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) was performed during the period of August 1 through October 5 in There are useful web sites for the experiment. One is the EOL T-PARC/TCS-08 Field Catalogue page, and another one is the JMA/MRI T-PARC home page at

6 CAS/ICSC-7/Doc.4.2, p. 6 The experiment was very successful with tremendous amount of observational data and model outputs. The first stage to collect the data is over. Now the scientists are working for the evaluation of the data and the impact study of the targeted observations, the downstream progression of the error growth, etc. Korean developments and plans for continuing work with TPARC and ProbeX are described in Annex 1. There will be several international meetings/conferences to present the results of the experiment as follows. International Workshop on ProbeX in November in Jeju, Korea. Asian THORPEX Science Conference in February in Hangzhou, China International THORPEX Science Symposium in May in Monterey, USA. 4. Status Report of the RA-II Rapporteur on WWRP-THORPEX The status report of the Regional Association (RA) II rapporteur on WWRP-THORPEX has been sent to the WMO. The short summary is as follows. THORPEX was established in 2003 by the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress as a 10-year long international Global Atmospheric Research Programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two-week high-impact weather forecasts. The Asian Regional THORPEX Committee (ARC) was established in The current member countries are China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea and Russia. Five ARC meetings were held so far. The latest ARC-5 was held in July 2007 in Japan and the next ARC-6 will be held in February 2009 in China. The main function of ARC is to promote the activities of THORPEX over Asia in harmony with the International THORPEX activity. A major activity in RA II during the last 3 years, related with WWRP-THORPEX, is to implement the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC), the first international field program in RA II under the WMO THORPEX Programme in The goal of T-PARC is advancing knowledge and predictability of the regional-toglobal influences on Asian and North American High-Impact Weather, aiming at the following specific scientific objectives. o To describe and document the space-time evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and thermodynamic fields, related with tropical convection and tropical cyclones, over the globe. o To identify the influence of tropical convection and tropical cyclones to the downstream Rossby wave propagation to generate high-impact weather in the North America. o To demonstrate the capability of the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) for the societal and economical applications. In Order to enhance the THORPEX activities in RA II, more participation to the ARC in are needed, in order to implement the future plan of the THORPEX regional activities and enhance the utilization of the THORPEX related products. 5. A Draft of the ARC Regional Activity Plan in The ARC has just started the discussion on the ARC regional activity plan in The following is a sketch-draft of the plan which will be revised at the coming ARC meeting in Hangzhou next February. The data of T-PARC Experiment will be fully analyzed, to understand o the feasibility of targeted observation/sensitivity analysis for TCs

7 CAS/ICSC-7/Doc.4.2, p. 7 o o the characteristics of high-sensitivity area the major controlling factors to determine TC tracks The ARC will explore the future collaboration on international/regional/domestic field experiments, including o Korea Enhanced Observation Period (KEOP) for heavy rainfall studies o Implementation of Chinese THORPEX Research Plan o Joint India-US FDP on TC landfall ( ) o Optimal Design Studies on Siberian RAOB network o YOTC collaboration on MJO The ARC meeting will be held at least annually to discuss coordination of the regional activities. The ARC will promote more members to join to the ARC, by closely working with ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, WMO RA II and individual domestic weather services/academic societies in the region.

8 CAS/ICSC-7/Doc.4.2, p. 8 Annex 1 T-PARC Korea The special observation campaign in Korea was conducted during T-PARC At Gosan, the ProbeX employed in situ observing systems such as operational radiosonde and additional sounding at every 6-hour interval. At super-site of Haenam, National Institute of Meteorological Research (hereafter NIMR) performed the intensive observation (e.g., 6- hourly auto-sonde sounding, radiometer, wind profiler, optical rain gage, micro rain radar, fluxes). Besides the routine observations, special observations were provided by both remote sensing (e.g., 13 wind profilers and 3 radiometers) and in-situ instruments (radiosonde sounding at super-site of Haenam). To identify target regions for typhoon, an adjoint-based targeting observation technique had been developed in Atmospheric Predictability and Data Assimilation Laboratory (hereafter APDAL) in Yonsei University, in collaboration with NIMR. During T-PARC, the APDAL in Yonsei University provided realtime MM5 singular vectors (SVs) to JMA sensitivity products website, PREVIEW of ECMWF, and EOL of NCAR. By providing sensitivity products for T-PARC, implementing data assimilation and impact studies, and participating scientific discussions among typhoon recurvature group, we involved every steps of scientific issues of T-PARC (e.g., sensitivity products preparation and provision, data assimilation, impact studies) actively. Korean scientists plan to use the WRF 3DVAR and UM 4DVAR systems to assimilate adaptively observed data during T-PARC and investigate their sensitivity to tropical cyclone recurvature and predictability of global model. In order to improve and identify predictability of catastrophic weather phenomena, the ProbeX is planning to expand the scope of observations during ProbeX IOP (1 July August 2009; 1 July August 2010) with four radiosondes launches per day as follows: KMA routine (5) Sokcho (47090); Pohang (47138); Baengnyeongdo (47102); Huksando (47169); Gosan (47185) Air Force routine (2) Gwangju (47158); Osan (47122) Additional enhanced observation (5) Munsan (47099); Cheorwon (47095); Chupungnyeong (47135); Masan (47155); Haenam (47261) The upper observation network for ProbeX