WWRP Implementation Plan Reporting

Transcription

1 WWRP Implementation Plan Reporting High Impact Weather and its socio economic effects in the context of global change. 1. How has your WG or Project contributed to addressing this Societal Challenge since the last CAS session in 2013? (Please provide highlights and challenges) - 2. How has your WG or Project contributed to Action Areas under this Societal Challenge since the last year? (Please provide key highlights and details based on Action Areas listed in the Implementation Plan) 3. How have you linked to other WGs, Projects and International initiatives under this Societal Challenge? 4. How do you see your WG or Project contributing to the Action Areas in the next 2 years? Water: modelling and predicting the water cycle for improved disaster risk reduction and resource management. 1. How has your WG or Project developed this Societal Challenge since the last CAS session in 2013? (Please provide highlights and challenges) a. Research and Development Projects (RDPs) South China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) (1) Pioneering field campaigns focusing on south China monsoon rainfall events The field campaign component of SCMREX aims at obtaining composite highdensity observations to detect the atmospheric environment and internal structures of the rainstorms during the pre-summer rainy season of southern China. The observing regions covered Guangdong, southeastern Guangxi, Hainan, Hong Kong, and the offshore of the South China Sea (Fig. 1a). The observing network was built upon the China Meteorological Administration s operational meteorological observing network consisting of the sounding stations, Doppler weather radars, wind-profiling radars (WPRs), automated weather stations, Guangdong Hong Kong Macau lightning location system, and China s Fengyun satellites. The structures of mesoscale convective systems, related kinematic or convection characteristics, and cloud precipitation microphysical parameters can be inferred not only from the Doppler radars and the lightning location system measurements, but also from a series of portable remote sensing instruments deployed over Guangdong s western coastal region and the Pearl

2 River delta area (Fig. 1b). Moreover, a research flight was conducted by the Government Flying Service of Hong Kong during the 2014 IOP. A database system has been setup for sharing of observation data collected from the field campaigns. The data can be accessed through application online ( where the implementation plan of SCMREX is also available. FIG 1. Distribution of major observing facilities that participated during the SCMREX pilot field campaigns over (a) southern China and its vicinity and (b) central and western Guangdong Province where the portable instruments were placed during the intensive observing periods (IOPs). In (a), orange and green lines highlight the enhanced observing area (20 25 N, E) and the aircraft observing area, respectively, and the circles with a radius of 150 km are centered at the operational S-band radars approximately representing their PPI scanning range. In (b), gray shading represents topography, the light blue line denotes the boundary of the Pearl River delta area, and A1 and A2 (B1 and B2)

3 denote the locations with the most portable instruments during the 2013 (2014) IOPs. All the facilities are consistent with markers in the legend. (2) Improvements in numerical forecasts of mesoscale convective systems in monsoon regions and understanding of physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall events Vertical profiles of horizontal winds measured by 14 WPRs over Guangdong were assimilated into a partial-cycle data assimilation system based on the threedimensional variational method, using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System, indicating that assimilating the quality-controlled WPR data significantly improves the 0 6-h forecasts of the vertical structures of meteorological variables and the diagnostic fields at the surface. Through improving the rain evaporation treatment and the calculation of saturation vapor pressure in the State University of New York at Stony Brook bulk microphysical parameterization scheme, the simulation of the strength of the cold pool, movement, the total precipitation, and the trailing stratiform precipitation of a squall line was significantly improved. Understanding and PreDiction of Rainfall Associated with landfalling Tropical cyclones (UPDRAFT) (1) Synergetic observations of landfalling tropical cyclone rainfall The RDP UPDRAFT which aims to improve the understanding and prediction of rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones, established wide international partnerships with institutions from Korea, USA, Hong Kong, and Japan. The project has completed the field campaigns in 2015 and 2016, obtaining the observations of several landfalling typhoons. (2) Development of optimal forecasting systems for predicting rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones A dynamic constraint based on the steady momentum equations was incorporated into the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) hybrid ensemble 3DVar (En3DVar) DA system as a weak constraint. The scheme was tested with the assimilation of radar T TREC (Typhoon Tracking Radar Echo by Correlation) winds at a convection allowing resolution. The effects of surface flux parameterizations on tropical cyclone rainfall structure were investigated. b. Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP) (1) Systematic approaches to presenting multi-source tropical cyclone forecasts and real-time verification Real-time typhoon forecasts from more than 13 agencies and forecast verification results were provided for users through the WMO-TLFDP website ( More forecasts have been provided through the TLFDP website as a joint effort with the NCAR TCGP, including the forecasts from GFS, GFDN and COAMPS-TC. New methods for the verification of tropical cyclone forecasts were proposed. Forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks, intensity, and precipitation from operational forecast agencies and deterministic NWP models since 2010 were evaluated to reveal the current capability of tropical cyclone forecast guidance over the western North Pacific. Based on the experiences gained through the implementation of TLFDP and a survey of current operational status of tropical cyclone forecast verification in the western North

4 Pacific region, an evaluation system for tropical cyclone forecasts has been proposed, serving as a guideline for the work of TLFDP. (2) Dissemination of products associated with WMO-TLFDP The website of WMO-TLFDP ( was released for the members of the project and the members of the project s International Scientific Steering Committee (ISSC). All the forecast and verification products collected in real time are provided through the website in an interactive way. A tropical cyclone plug-in was designed and developed by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA as a part of the Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Process System (MICAPS), which aims to be an interactive tool for forecasters to browse and analyze tropical cyclone information together with other data from multiple sources, such as satellite observations, radar images, numerical weather prediction model fields, and surface observations, among others. This Plug-in also has the functions of searching historical tropical cyclones, viewing track forecast errors, generating tropical cyclone warning messages, and delivering the message to the service department. (3) Training opportunities for forecasters and researchers Short-term scientists from Vietnam, Thailand, DPRK, and so on have been jointly funded by the Typhoon Committee and Shanghai Typhoon Institute to visit Shanghai Typhoon Institute and to do research on tropical cyclone forecasts. c. Workshops and meetings The 5 th WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-V) was successfully held in 2013, with the scientific sessions held on October 2013, Macao China and the training workshop sessions held on 31 October in Macao China and 1 November in Hong Kong China. The IWM series is a part of the WMO major quadrennial symposia and workshops series under WWRP. IWM-V was organized by the Monsoon Panel of the WGTMR/WWRP, focusing on recent advances and current issues covering all time scales (meso-, synoptic, extended range, intraseasonal, and climate) that are relevant to the forecasts of high-impact weather in the monsoon regions around the world. The scientific sessions included invited reviews and oral and poster papers on global and regional monsoons, high-impact weather including heavy rainfall and tropical cyclonbes, intraseasonal variations and predictability, physical processes, numerical modeling, and extreme weather and climate change. The training workshop sessions focused on the Promises and Challenges of Monsoon and Tropical Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The 8 th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) was held in Jeju, Republic of Korea from 2 to 10 December 2014, with 233 participants from 28 countries/regions. The theme of IWTC-VIII is Quantifying and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty. The IWTC is one of WMO s major quadrennial workshop series organized by WWRP and TCP. The workshop is a special and unique gathering of researchers and warning specialists from all regions affected by tropical cyclones, including those from Members belonging to the TCP regional bodies. The main objectives of the workshop are to examine current knowledge, forecasting and research trends on tropical cyclones from an integrated global perspective and offer recommendations for future forecasting

5 studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different regions. The topics included advances in forecasting motion, tropical cyclogenesis and intensity evolution, communication and effective warning, structure and intensity change, and tropical cyclone climatology. The 3 rd International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes was also held in Jeju, Republic of Korea from 8 to 10 December 2014, with the topics of track, structure, and intensity changes at landfall, storm surge, and rainfall. The specific objectives of the workshop are (i) to describe the tropical cyclone landfall impacts and the required meteorological variables that must be observed, analyzed and predicted, (ii) to describe present forecast capabilities for these meteorological variables and to establish the gaps of deficiencies in a prioritized list of forecast variables, (iii) to describe national or international research programs that the WGTMR TCP may be affiliated with that will address these forecast deficiencies, and (iv) to improve understanding on the impacts of topography on the behavior of landfalling tropical cyclones. These two workshops made 7 recommendations for WMO, 6 for integrated operations and research, 5 for forecast agencies and operational forecasting centers, and 9 for research community, respectively. 2. How has your WG or Project contributed to Action Areas under this Societal Challenge since the last year? (Please provide key highlights and details based on Action Areas listed in the Implementation Plan) a. Field campaigns for monsoon convection in SCMREX and tropical cyclone rainfall in UPDRAFT Monsoon and tropical cyclones are two of important components of the global and regional water cycles. The field campaigns conducted in SCMREX and UPDRAFT in 2016 and 2017 successfully obtained abundant observational data with respect to monsoon convection and landfalling tropical cyclone rainfall, closely related to AA 7 Integrated Water Cyclone and AA 9 Precipitation Processes. Synergetic observations of using multi equipments and data sharing contribute nicely to AA 8 New Observations. The First SCMREX International Workshop was successfully held at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences CMA Conference Center in Beijing from 12 to 13 April Participants at the workshop presented and discussed results of the Research Phase of the said RDP. Discussions were also focussed on strategies for SCMREX 2017 and 2018 field campaigns and promoting collaboration with other institutions and operational centres in the western north Pacific region on future SCMREX research activities. b. Development of data assimilation in monsoon convection and tropical cyclone rainfall forecasts Assimilation of WPR data in SCMREX and the development of a dynamicconstraint hybrid ensemble 3DVar technology in UPDRAFT show promising results in monsoon convection and tropical cyclone rainfall forecasts, respectively, which contributes to AA 7 Integrated Water Cyclone and AA 9 Precipitation Processes. c. Workshop and publications

6 The First SCMREX International Workshop was successfully held at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences CMA Conference Center in Beijing from 12 to 13 April 2017 (Fig. 2). Participants at the workshop presented and discussed results of the Research Phase of the said RDP. Discussions were also focussed on strategies for SCMREX 2017 and 2018 field campaigns and promoting collaboration with other institutions and operational centres in the western north Pacific region on future SCMREX research activities. FIG. 2. Group photo of participants in the First SCMREX International Workshop. The 3rd Edition of the book The Global Monsoon System has been published (25 Jan 2017). The book is third in the series on the state of the science of monsoon research and forecasting which is updated approximately every 5 years based on the invited reviews of WMO's International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM). The third edition is an outgrowth of the reviews initially presented in late 2013 at IWM-V, with manuscripts revised and updated through 2015 and early As in previous editions, the book builds on the concept that the monsoon in various parts of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon system, while also emphasizing that significant region-specific characteristics are present in individual monsoon regions. In addition to the regional monsoons, the current volume covers contemporary topics with emphasis on intraseasonal oscillations, extreme weather, decadal variability, climate change, and summary of recent field experiments including CINDY/DYNAMO in the Indian Ocean and the Asian Monsoon Years. This book is edited by members of WWRP WGTMR's Monsoon Panel led by its Chair, Professor CP Chang and members of the Panel who are world-renowned monsoon experts which includes Drs Hung-Chi Kuo, Ngar-Cheung Lau, Richard H. Johnson, Bin Wang and Matthew C Wheeler.

7 FIG. 3. The cover of the 3rd Edition of the book The Global Monsoon System. 3. How have you linked to other WGs, Projects and International initiatives under this Societal Challenge? The WGTMR has direct working relationships with the NMHSs to develop and implement improved and cost-effective forecasting techniques with emphasis on high-impact weather associated with tropical cyclones and monsoons. The Tropical Cyclone Panel of the WGTMR has had a long and fruitful working relationship with the World Weather Watch Tropical Cyclone Program and the NMHSs affected by tropical cyclones, and the Monsoon Panel has similar relationships with NMHSs of WMO members affected by high-impact monsoon weather events. Linkages with other WWRP components also include: JWGVR for seasonal tropical cyclone activity and for mesoscale model verification methods; and WGMWFR for tropical and monsoon region mesoscale observation studies, mesoscale data assimilation, representation of convection and complex terrain, and predictability of mesoscale heavy rainfall events. RDFs and FDPs closely collaborate each other, such as the UPDRAFT in collaboration with the TLFDP, the Forecast Demonstration Project in Southeast Asia (SWFDP), and SCMREX. In UPDRAFT, tentative agreements were reached with Korean, and Japanese scientists to share research interest and data on landfalling tropical cyclones. A detailed coordinated observational plan was discussed with the Hong Kong Observatory. Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) has close relation to the High Impact Weather Project (HIWeather), the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S), and the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). 4. How do you see your WG or Project advancing in the next 2 years? (Please provide with detailed based on Action Areas) TLFDP, UPDRAFT, and SCMREX will continue activities based on Action Areas. A Joint workshop of above RDPs and FDP will be held in Plans for the field experiment called KOUDVAN/RevNoRisk continue next year. KOUDVAN/RevNoRisk is a combined observational and modeling study intended to improve the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones and their impacts in the South-West Indian Ocean. Planned for January-February of 2019 and based in La Reunion, France, this project is being led by Olivier Bousquet (Meteo-France, France) and Frank Roux (Laboratoire d Aerologie, France). They are working with the U.S./NOAA/HRD to try to obtain funding

8 to bring the NOAA WP-3D aircraft into the field for this experiment. A multinational field campaign baptized The Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) will conducted from July 2017 to July 2019, which is aimed at improving understanding and prediction of maritime continent weatherclimate systems and their global impact. The 6 th WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-VI) and the associated Monsoon Training Workshop will be held in Singapore during November An 8-session monsoon training workshop is being organized in conjunction with IWM-6. IWM-VI is organized by the Monsoon Panel of the WWRP Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR), in cooperation with the CLIVAR/GEWEX Monsoon Panel, the MJO Task Force, the S2S Steering Group, the YMC Scientific Steering Committee, Meteorological Service Singapore, and Chinese University of Hong Kong. The 4th International Workshop on Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-4) in conjunction with TLFDP/UPDRAFT/EXOTICCA Workshop will be held in Macau, China, during 5-8 December Urbanization: research and services for megacities and large urban complexes. 1. How has your WG or Project developed this Societal Challenge since the last CAS session in 2013? (Please provide highlights and challenges) 2. How has your WG or Project contributed to Action Areas under this Societal Challenge since the last year? (Please provide key highlights and details based on Action Areas listed in the Implementation Plan) 3. How have you linked to other WGs, Projects and International initiatives under this Societal Challenge? 4. How do you see your WG or Project advancing in the next 2 years? (Please provide with detailed based on Action Areas) Evolving Technologies: their impact on science and their use. 1. How has your WG or Project developed this Societal Challenge since the last CAS session in 2013? (Please provide highlights and challenges) 2. How has your WG or Project contributed to Action Areas under this Societal Challenge since the last year? (Please provide key highlights and details based on Action Areas listed in the Implementation Plan) 3. How have you linked to other WGs, Projects and International initiatives under this Societal Challenge?

9 4. How do you see your WG or Project advancing in the next 2 years? (Please provide with detailed based on Action Areas) Cross cutting activities 1. What are the key achievements in your WG or Project since the last CAS session in 2013 that cut across two or more societal challenges? The WGTMR also aims to identify and support the research and operational initiatives on tropical cyclone and monsoon climate. a. Seasonal hurricane forecast website The Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Colorado State University (CSU) and XL Catlin have launched a new website to track seasonal hurricane forecasts and the evolution of hurricane activity ( Seasonal Hurricane Predictions brings together forecasts from major centers that specialize in hurricanes, with information dating back to It also offers extensive information to promote understanding of the factors that contribute to these meteorological phenomena, which can have devastating consequences, and to help explain why different models produce different predictions. The website is an initiative of WGTMR's Expert Team on Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts. b. Publications Publication of three volumes of the World Science Series on Asia Pacific Weather and Climate: Vol. 6: Climate Change, Multi Decadal and Beyond; Vol. 7: Indo Pacific Climate Variability and Predictability; and Vol. 8: Aridity Trend in Northern China. 2. How have you linked to other WGs, Projects and International initiatives for cross cutting activities? 3. What will be the key cross cutting activities in the next 2 years? Plan to hold a workshop on the impact of the climate change on tropical cyclones and monsoons in March 2018 in UAE Plan to issue An updated Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change prepared by the WGTMR Task Team on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Impacts. with a target publication timeframe of 2018, in time to the used as input to the IPCC AR6.