QUADRENNIAL WORKSHOP PREVIEW

Transcription

1 QUADRENNIAL WORKSHOP PREVIEW

2 BACKGROUND The International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC) was conceived in the early 1980 s by a small group of tropical cyclone meteorologists led by Professor William Gray who was also at the time engaged as a WMO project consultant. The goal was to organize a forum for forecasters and researchers from all regions affected by tropical cyclones to examine current knowledge, forecasting and research trends on this weather systems from an integrated global perspective. The idea was endorsed by WMO s ninth Congress (1983) and it s 35 th (1981) and 36 th (1984) Executive Council. Consequently, the first truly global gathering of all types of TC specialists representing all five TC regional bodies (currently with 85 Members) was held in Bangkok, Thailand in After 33 years, IWTC is now considered as one of one of WMO s major quadrennial workshop series. It is a special and unique gathering of tropical cyclone (TC) researchers and forecasters from all regions affected by tropical cyclones. The subsequent IWTCs followed a well-established model where an International Committee was set up to develop the workshop programme, select main topics to be discussed during the workshop and put together a group of experts to produce a preworkshop report. The pre-workshop report is a compilation of summaries of latest advances on tropical cyclone theory, analysis and applications. This extensive report, one of the hallmarks of the IWTC, is prepared by a team composed of topic chairs and rapporteurs ably assisted by working groups. The reviews are then collected to form the Pre-Workshop Report and is distributed to workshop participants before the actual event. Rapporteur reports includes forecast issues, examples of difficult forecast situations and recommendations on future research directions. The report also serves as the basis for the breakout discussions during the workshop. The IWTC has, through the years, essentially served to channel scientific advances and emerging technologies into operational tropical cyclone forecasting. Another noteworthy outcome of this workshop series is the establishment of better communication between tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters. More often than not, plans for future international co-operation between individuals and governments dealing with the tropical cyclone problem were also developed during the workshop. In-depth exchange of both practical and theoretical information and extensive discussions on the complex problems of tropical cyclones resulted in a number of useful recommendations concerning tropical cyclone forecasting, warning and research. The ninth workshop in this series will again be an international opportunity for forecasters and researches from around the world to summarize progress, discuss needs and requirements, and plan future advances primarily aimed of improving tropical cyclone forecasting and warning systems.

3 PREVIOUS IWTCs The IWTC celebrated it s 25 th anniversary in 2010 during the opening of the seventh workshop in the series on 15 November in Saint-Gilles les bains, La Réunion, France. Organized by the World Meteorological Organization s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) the workshop is a special and unique gathering of tropical cyclone researchers and warning specialists from all regions affected by tropical cyclones. IWTC aims to facilitate the exchange of information between tropical cyclone research scientists and operational weather forecasters. Discussions during the workshops resulted in a number of recommendations addressed to WMO, Tropical Cyclone forecasters, Research Community on needed actions to improve tropical cyclone forecasting and warning systems and reduce the associated risk and damages. These workshops not only enhanced knowledge of the nature and behaviour of this natural hazard, it also provided opportunities for prioritizing new observational data and research requirements. The eight previous workshops in the series were: IWTC-I Bangkok, Thailand (1985) Chairperson: Prof William M. GRAY (USA) IWTC-2 Manila, Philippines (1989) Chairperson: Dr Greg HOLLAND (Australia) IWTC-3 Huatulco, Sta. Cruz, Mexico (1993) Chairperson: Mr Jerry D. JARRELL (USA) IWTC-4 Haikou, Hainan, China (1998) Chairperson: Dr Gary FOLEY (Australia) IWTC-5 Cairns, Queensland, Australia (2002) Chairperson: Prof Russell ELSBERRY IWTC-6 San Jose, Costa Rica (2006) Co-Chairperson: Mr C.Y. LAM (Hong Kong, China) Co-Chairperson: Prof Johnny CHAN (Hong Kong, China) IWTC-7 St. Denis, La Reunion, France (2010) Co-chairperson: Jeff KEPERT (Australia) Co-chairperson: Chris VELDEN (USA) IWTC-8 Jeju, Republic of Korea (2014) Co-chairperson: Andrew Burton (Australia) Co-chairperson: Jenni Evans (USA)

4 INTERNATIONAL COMMITTEE FOR IWTC-9 Co-Chairperson: (Operational) Mike BRENNAN (USA) Co-Chairperson: (Research) Yuqing WANG (Australia) Members: Yihong DUAN Johnny CHAN Chairperson WWRP Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR) Chairperson Tropical Cyclone Panel/WGTMR TC Researchers: Robert ROGERS Tom KNUTSON Phil KLOTZBACH Esperanza CAYANAN Chairperson of Expert Team (ET) Landfall Processes (LP) Chairperson of ET Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones (CITC) Chairperson ET Seasonal TC Forecasts (STCF) Chairperson ET Observation Processes and Prediction (OPP) TC Forecasters: Lixion AVILA Mike BERGIN Ravind KUMAR Philippe CAROFF M MOHAPATRA Hisaki EITO Representative RSMC Miami (USA) Representative of TCWCs of Region V Representative, RSMC Nadi (Fiji) Representative, RSMC La Reunion (France) Representative RSMC New Delhi (India) Representative RSMC Tokyo (Japan) Other Experts: Zhiyu LIU Shishir DUBE Linda ANDERSON-BERRY Jing CHEN Ray TANABE Hydrologist Storm Surge Expert Society & Economy (representative of WWRP WGSERA) Verification Expert (representative of WWRP/WGNE JWGFVR) Chairperson Local Organizing Committee

5 THEME: Toward improved analyses and forecasts of Tropical Cyclone structure and more effective probabilistic TC hazard information and warnings SESSIONS: Cyclogenesis Topic co-chairpersons: Daniel Halperin, M. Mohapatra and Frank Roux Tropical Cyclone Track Topic co-chairpersons: Kevin Cheung and Hisaki Eito Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Topic co-chairpersonss: Joe Courtney and Eric Hendricks Tropical Cyclone Structure Analysis and Change Topic Chairperson: David Nolan Communication of Forecast Uncertainty and warnings using probabilistic hazard information Topic co-chairpersons: Ma Cecilia Monteverde and Chuanhai Qian Tropical Cyclone Variability beyond the Synoptic Scale Topic co-chairpersons: Tom Knutson and T.C. Lee Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Remote Sensing Tools Topic co-chairpersons: Philippe Caroff and John Knaff SPECIAL FOCUS SESSIONS: Next Generation Meteorological Satellite Systems Kotaro Bessho, John Knaff and Suzhong Weng Significant Tropical Cyclones in 2017 Lixion Avila, Lu Man (Andy) Tang, Hisaki Eito and Robert Sawi Storm Surge Forecasts & Warnings Shishir Dube and Nadao Kohno New Observation Strategies Esperanza Cayanan and K.K. Hon Basic set of TC verification metrics for NMHSs Jing Chen Global Multi-Hazard Alert Systems Armstrong Cheng Improving skill of TC Forecasts and the S2S database Frederic Vitart New uses of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Tropical Cyclone Research

6 IWTC RELATED PUBLICATIONS Proceedings of the WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC) (Bangkok, Thailand, 25 November 5 December 1986) (TMR21) (WMO TD 83) Proceedings of the Second WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-II) (Manila, Philippines, 27 November 8 December 1989) (TMR37) (WMO TD 361) Proceedings of the Third WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-III) (Huatulco, Sta Cruz, Mexico, 22 November 1 December 1993) (TMR49) (WMO TD 624) Proceedings of the Fourth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-IV) (Hailou, Hainan, China, April 1998) (TMR60) (WMO TD 961) Proceedings of the Fifth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-V) (Cairns, Queensland, Australia, 3 12 December 2002) (68) (WMO TD 1165) Sixth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI), San Jose, Costa Rica, November 2006 (WWRP ) (WMO TD 1383) Seventh WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VII) (St. Gilles les Baines, November 2011) (WWRP (WMO TD 1561) Eighth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) (Jeju, Republic of Korea,

7 PHOTOS IWTC-I (Bangkok, 25 November 5 December 1986) IWTC-II (Manila, 27 November 8 December 1989)

8 IWTC-IV (Haikou, April 1998)

9 IWTC-V (Cairns, 3-12 December 2002) IWTC-VI (San Jose, November 2006)

10 IWTC-VII (St. Gilles le Bains, November 2011) IWTC-VIII (Jeju, Republic of Korea, 2-10 December 2014*) *dates including IWTCLP-3