escience, ehazards and ecatastrophes Collaboration Across the Pacific for Disaster Reduction

Transcription

1 escience, ehazards and ecatastrophes Collaboration Across the Pacific for Disaster Reduction John B. Rundle Departments of Physics, Geology and Engineering University of California, Davis, CA Andrea Donnellan Division of Earth and Space Sciences Jet Propulsion Laboratory Pasadena, CA Dion Weatherly ACcESS,, QUAKES, University of Queensland Brisbane, AU Presented at APAC 07 escience Workshop October 11,

2 Outline The Problem: Hazards and Catastrophes The Solution: escience and Information Technology ACES The APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations The US Program: NASA and the QuakeSim Project The Australian Program: AcCESS and QUAKES Discussion - Collaboration Across the Pacific 2

3 The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Fire 3

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21 Natural Hazards Cause Vast Destruction December 2004 M ~ 9.3 Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami (> 250,000 lives lost) August 2005 Category 3-4 Hurricane Katrina (> 1000 lives lost, > $100 Billion cost) October M ~ 7.6 Pakistan Earthquake (> 80,000 lives lost) Human Populations are Increasingly at Risk By 2050, more than 30% of the worlds population will live in seismically active zones A number of these countries are unstable politically Great disasters can trigger social unrest, wars, and conflict between nations A disaster in countries possessing nuclear or biological weapons is a particular concern 21

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24 Earthquakes Can Have Huge Effects: Sumatra-Andaman Islands Event Sunday 26/12/2005 7:59 am (local time at epicenter) M w = km depth (below mean SL) 1,000 km USGS 24

25 Tsunamis can be caused by sudden motions of the ocean floor due to earthquakes 25

26 India (Animation K. Satake, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan ) Wave height: Red = higher than normal Blue = lower than normal 26

27 Kalutara, Sri Lanka [1/1/2004] Kalutara, Sri Lanka [26/12/2004] m of nearshore exposed

28 Simulation of a Tsunami in the Tasman Sea Simulation courtesy of Gross, Weatherley, and Cochrane, UQ QuickTime and a YUV420 codec decompressor are needed to see this picture. 28

29 Space-Time Patterns of Historic Earthquakes in California Large earthquakes on major faults occur irregularly in time Major events on the San Andreas Fault A.D From K. Sieh et al., JGR, 94, 603 (1989)

30 Earthquakes Earthquakes occur on fault systems such as the Imperial Valley fault south of Los Angeles Earthquake Cycle Orange grove offset, Imperial Valley Earthquake,

31 The San Andreas Fault in Central California Wallace Creek 31

32 Earthquake Forecasting In the US, the NASA/DOE QuakeSim group is pioneering approaches to earthquake forecasting similar to those successfully used in weather and El Nino forecasting: Principal component analysis and state vector representations Numerical simulations based on large scale models of interacting earthquake faults We will discuss: Numerical simulations using Virtual California An important aspect to consider is: Data assimilation of InSAR and other space geodetic data types 32

33 Simulation based methods: Virtual California No assumptions are made regarding geological segmentation (Rundle, 1988; PB Rundle et al., PRL, 2002; PB Rundle et al., PAGEOPH, in press, 2006) Faults in RED are shown superposed on a LandSat image of California. Geologic data are used to set the model parameters. (Image courtesy of Peggy Li, JPL) 650 Boundary Elements: ~10 km x 15 km 33

34 Structure of Virtual California Family of Codes JPL QuakeSim Project: Data Assimilation The structure of a backslip code such as Virtual California uses boundary elements or finite elements only to compute the stress Green s functions. The dynamics are computed, analyzed and visualized with codes of considerable generality. The advantage of a backslip model is that all faults are guaranteed to have an average slip rate equal to the observed long-term rate. 34

35 Space-Time Patterns of Historic Earthquakes Large earthquakes on major faults occur irregularly in time Major events on the San Andreas Fault A.D From K. Sieh et al., JGR, 94, 603 (1989)

36 Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) can detect changes (both large and small) in surface deformation of the earth s crust over synoptic scales. At present we are limited to isolated, static images. Deformation in the Eastern Mojave Shear Zone (Courtesy G. Peltzer) 1992 Landers, California Earthquake (Courtesy H. Zebker) Courtesy Y. Kim 36

37 Surface Deformation Simulation 1000 years of California Earthquakes from Virtual California Represented as Interferograms from a Radar Satellite Each movie frame represents surface deformation over the previous 5 years. Frames advance 1 year at a time. (Movie courtesy of P Li, JPL). QuickTime and a YUV420 codec decompressor are needed to see this picture. Clustering of events in space and time can be seen 37

38 Waiting Times A method to forecast the next major San Francisco earthquake using numerical simulations The yellow region is.25 P m (t<t).75, the middle 50%. The red diamond represents the value for today, 100 years after the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Plot at left indicates a 25% chance of a M > 7 event during next 20 years; a 50% chance during next 45 years; and a 75% chance during next 80 years. 38

39 QuakeSim: A Component of iservo Project to develop a solid Earth science framework for modeling and understanding earthquake and tectonic processes The multi-scale nature of earthquakes requires integrating many data types and models to fully simulate and understand the earthquake process QuakeSim focuses on modeling the interseismic process through various boundary element, finite element, and analytic applications, which run on various platforms including desktop and high end computers

40 Objective Improved modeling environment for better earthquake forecasts Establish the necessary computational infrastructure Develop optimal techniques for understanding the relationship between the observable space-time patterns of earthquakes and the underlying dynamics that are inaccessible or unobservable in nature QuickTime and a YUV420 codec decompressor are needed to see this picture.

41 Approach Integrate real-time and archival sensor data with highperformance computing applications for data mining and assimilation Federate sensor data sources, focusing on InSAR and GPS Extend QuakeSim to interact with high-end computing resources at Ames Research Center and JPL Initial Mesh Vertical Motion

42 Operational Concept

43 Computational Infrastructure The QuakeSim Portal allows users to access the QuakeTables database and ingest the data into various modeling and visualization applications QuickTime and a TIFF (LZW) QuickTime decompressor and a are needed TIFF (LZW) to see decompressor this picture. are needed to see this picture. The QuakeTables database contains faults and their information for modeling in the QuakeSim environment QuickTime and and a TIFF TIFF (LZW) (LZW) decompressor are are needed needed to to see see this this picture. picture.

44 Relevant to DESDynI L-band InSAR and multibeam LIDAR mission for improving our understanding of hazards, ice sheet dynamics, and ecosystems Planned launch in early 2014 Will generate over 500 GB/day of raw data QuickTime and a Sorenson Video 3 decompressor are needed to see this picture.

45 QuakeTables Federated Database System Web & Web Service Interface QuakeTables API QuakeTables Ontology Ontology Processor Fault DB GPS DB InSAR DB DataSet DB Data Storage

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47 Portal Development JSR 168 portlet-compliant GridSphere container This is a popular product in the science gateway community Used by our OGCE project, the Scripps GPS Explorer portal, many TeraGrid Science Gateways Current portlet set (completely redeveloped): QuickTime and a TIFF (LZW) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Disloc, Simplex, GeoFEST, RDAHMM (real time and archival), STFilter All portlets are developed using Java Server Faces (JSF) Some work on improving richness of interfaces Google Maps, YUI JavaScript Libraries, BFO plotting libraries, Web Start+JOGL plotting libraries for meshes Using lightweight DB4O object database to store JSF JavaBeans for persistent state management QuickTime QuickTime and and a a TIFF TIFF (LZW) (LZW) decompressor decompressor are are needed needed to to see see this this picture. picture.

48 Classic Grid Support Classic Grid is Globus, Condor used by NSF TeraGrid, Open Science Grid, etc. Provide a common middleware layer that should be portable to NASA, international Grids We are researching and implementing matchmaking techniques to do high throughput supercomputing Implementation is leveraging Condor-G, Globus, QBETS (queue batch prediction service) We have general purpose portlets for Condor, Condor-G, GridFTP, Globus GRAM Leveraging OGCE project We have also developed (in OGCE) GTLAB libraries for composing JSF Grid Portlets

49 Real Time GPS Support We use a publish/subscribe infrastructure for demultiplexing real time GPS data from SOPAC network Demonstrated this is scaleable to >1000 networks 8 networks (~80 individual stations) are currently available Integration with RDAHMM a Hidden Markov Model time series classifier

50 iservo International Collaboration 1. To develop realistic numerical simulation models for earthquake generation and cycles 2. To foster collaboration 3. To foster development of infrastructure & programs Australia: ESSCC, ACcESS, China: CEA, Beijing U, Japan: CoE Tokyo U., USA: NASA JPL, UC Davis,

51 International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory Data cache Observations 100 TeraFLOPs sustained Tier 1 Downlink Tier 3 Brisbane Workstations, other portals ~TB/day Downlink Ames Fully functional problem solving environment ACcESSInstitute Archive Institute Archive Downlink Archive QuakeSim Mbits/sec Tier 0 +1 JPL iservo Tier2 Center Tier2 Center Tier2 Center Tier2 Center Tier2 Center Tier 4 1 PB per year data rate by 2014 Distributed Heterogeneous Real-Time Datasets Program-to-program communication in milliseconds Approximately 100 model codes Tier 2 Plug and play composing of parallel programs from algorithmic modules On-demand downloads of 100 GB in 5 minutes 10 6 volume elements rendering in real-time