Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO

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1 Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO JANUARY 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review During January, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 33.0 F, 2.9 F above the 20th century average. This ranked as the 24th warmest January in the record and marked the warmest January since The average January maximum (daytime) temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 43.2 F, 2.7 F above the 20th century average the 26th warmest on record. The average January minimum (nighttime) temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 22.7 F, 3.0 F above the 20th century average the 23rd warmest on record. Locations from the West Coast, through the Intermountain West, and into the Northern Plains were warmer than average, where seven states had a top 10 warm January California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. No state was record warm for the month. Parts of the Southern Plains and Northeast were cooler than average while no state had a top 10 cool January. According to preliminary data, during January, there were 3,499 warm daily temperature records broken or tied (1,906 warm maximum and 1,593 warm minimum), compared to 775 cool daily temperature records broken or tied (441 cool maximum and 334 cool minimum).

2 The average contiguous U.S. precipitation was 1.75 inches, 0.56 inch below average, and ranked as the 18th driest January in the 121-year record. Most areas of the U.S. were drier than average, especially the West, Central Plains, and Midwest, where four states California, Nebraska, Oregon, and Wyoming had a top 10 dry January. The Southern Rockies and Plains and the coastal Mid-Atlantic were wetter than average, but no state had a monthly precipitation value ranking among their 10 wettest. For the third consecutive January, California's precipitation was much below average, indicating a continuation of longterm drought conditions. The monthly statewide precipitation total of 0.68 inch was 3.57 inches below average, the fourth driest January on record. Several cities in northern California were record dry, including San Francisco, which received no measurable precipitation in January for the first timeon record. January is typically the wettest month of the year for California. According to analysis of NOAA data by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the January contiguous U.S. snow cover extent was 1.3 million square miles, 75,000 square miles below the average. This marked the 18th smallest January snow cover extent in the 49-year period of record. Despite the below-average monthly snow cover extent, a powerful Nor'easter impacted the East Coast in late January, bringing blizzard conditions and coastal flooding to New England. Boston, Massachusetts received 24.4 inches of snow, the sixth highest single-storm snowfall total for the city. The storm was rated a Category 3 ("Major") for the Northeast, based on the Regional Snowfall Index which considers both the snow amount and population affected across the region. Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during January was 9 percent below average and the 53rd lowest in the period of record. According to the February 3rd U.S. Drought Monitor report, 28.4 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down slightly from 28.7 percent at the end of December. Drought conditions worsened across parts of the West, Central Rockies, Midwest, and Ohio River Valley. Drought conditions improved in parts of the interior Northwest, Southern Plains, Southwest, and the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Drought conditions also worsened for much of the Hawaiian Islands.

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6 Climate Highlights Winter to Date December 2014 January 2015 For the first two months of winter (December 2013-January 2014), the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 34.9 F, 3.5 F above the 20th century average. This was the sixth warmest December-January period on record and the warmest since The average maximum (daytime) temperature was 44.3 F, 2.7 F above average and the 14th warmest on record. The average minimum (nighttime) temperature was 25.5 F, 4.3 F above average and the warmest on record for December- January surpassing the previous record set in 2005/06 by 0.1 F. Most of the contiguous U.S. was warmer than average for the two-month period, with the largest departures from average occurring across the West where nine states had a top 10 warm winter-to-date. California was record warm with a temperature 5.1 F above the 20th century average and 0.7 F warmer than the previous record that occurred just last year. Near-average temperatures were observed from the Central Gulf Coast, into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes region. No state had December-January temperatures that were below the 20th century average. The December-January contiguous U.S. precipitation total was 4.31 inches, 0.35 inch below the 20th century average and the 40th driest on record. Most of the West saw near-average winter-to-date precipitation where January precipitation deficits nearly equaled December precipitation surpluses. The warm and relatively dry winter to date in the West led to large snowpack deficits in the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountain ranges. Below-average precipitation was observed through the Upper Midwest and into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and Ohio River Valley. The Southern Rockies, Central Plains, and New England were wetter than average for the two-month period. No state had precipitation totals ranking among the 10 wettest or driest.

7 Climate Highlights Soil Moisture Conditions

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12 Climate Highlights Severe Weather Analytics All Event Distribution January

13 Tornado Event Distribution January Wind Event Distribution January

14 Hail Event Distribution - January

15 LONG RANGE TREND MAPPING Rendered FEBRUARY 8, 2015 Trend Adjustments Made by S.A. Root --- FEB. 08, 2014 The current pattern reviewed was DEC 15 th JAN 30 th resulting in these two observations: Looking back at the past 30, 60, 90 and 120-days, we have:

16 REVIEW of S ROOT s LATE DEC ANALOG SELECTION: 1963, 1967, 2002, and 2003 At first glance 1967 and 2003 had promise, but all years were reconsidered using BAL of the MONTH of FEB testing (see below); REVIEW of SOURCE-2 (PP) ANALOGS as of 02/01: 1970, 1977, 1980, 1987, 2003 and 2010

17 Many of these analogs had great promise S ROOT NEW ANALOGS for CONSIDERATION, USING 12/15 01/30/15:

18 Next, I sought insight into the current weather pattern (outside of the extreme NOV-early DEC cold), which was gained by using Balance of the Month (FEB 2015; as of 02/07/15, part observed, part forecasted), and comparing current pattern to the same period of these trend years:

19 Lastly, testing various ideas, such as using all of these years into an Equally Weighted of All Years resulted in: then, removing 1977 as the weakest analog, resulted in: and focusing in on a final trend, I found this:

20 and: but I liked this mapping for the FINAL FEB calibration: which was: 1958, 1963 X 2, 1967 X 3, 1970, 1980, and 1995 X 2

21 Applying these years as inputs resulted in this new trend, which I installed into the system today (02/08/15); as a means to check run to run consistency, that is, this new trend to that currently in the systems, here are both (new trend on the left, current trend in the system on the right):

22 Here is my final analog mapping: X X X 2 10%... 20%... 30%... 10%... 10%... 20%...

23 S ROOT REVIEW OF FINAL ANALOG MAPPING (next six months): TEMPERATURES MARCH PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES APRIL PRECIPITATION

24 TEMPERATURES MAY PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES JUNE PRECIPITATION

25 TEMPERATURES JULY PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES AUGUST PRECIPITATION

26 EUROPEAN MODEL OUTPUTS: MAR, APR, MAY APR, MAY, JUN MAY, JUN, JUL

27 JUN, JUL, AUG NOAA CFS V2 MODEL OUTPUTS - TEMPERATURE and PRECIPITATION:

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29 NOAA OFFICIAL SEASONAL FORECASTS - TEMPERATURE and PRECIPITATION:

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31 Long Range Forecast Winter Forecast Monthly HDDs for WINTER (out of 65 past winters from 1950, GCS = Gas Consuming States): Forecast Made September 22, 2014: o Winter Full USA: 260,404 HDDs; 24 th Coldest; o Winter GCS: 75,368 HDDs; 31 st Coldest; Forecast Made October 23, 2014: o Winter Full USA: 244,870 HDDs; 52 nd Coldest; o Winter GCS: 70,973 HDDs; 52 nd Coldest; Forecast Made November 27, 2014: o Winter Full USA: 252,342 HDDs; 42 nd Coldest; o Winter GCS: 75,251 HDDs; 32 nd Coldest; Forecast Made December 26, 2014: o Winter Full USA: 249,582 HDDs; 43 rd Coldest; o Winter GCS: 73,446 HDDs; 40th Coldest; Forecast Made January 16, 2015: o Winter Full USA: 248,633 HDDs; 44 th Coldest; o Winter GCS: 74,819 HDDs; 35 th Coldest; Forecast Made February 15, 2015: o Winter Full USA: 245,913 HDDs; 50 th Coldest; o Winter GCS: 75,192 HDDs; 32 nd Coldest; Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Past 5-Winter Average: Past 10-Winter Average: 270,535 HDDs; 6 th Coldest; 246,823 HDDs; 45 th Coldest; 246,823 HDDs; 45 th Coldest; 246,823 HDDs; 45 th Coldest; 246,823 HDDs; 45 th Coldest; 246,823 HDDs; 45 th Coldest; 245,633 HDDs 245,374 HDDs COLDEST WINTER since : ; 281,794 HDDs WARMEST WINTER since : ; 217,316 HDDs

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