The Pennsylvania Observer

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1 The Pennsylvania Observer May 31, 2012 May Pennsylvania Weather Recap By: Paul Knight The majority of the fifth month had temperatures averaging well above seasonal levels with two distinct hot spells, one during the first week and the second centered on the Memorial Day weekend. More importantly, May brought an abundance of rain in the central sections and northeast, where in some places, there was as much rain during this month as there had been from January 1-April 30, Fortunately, flooding was not an issue as the dry winter and early spring meant the creeks and streams were running low. Rainfall was sparse though in the northwestern third of the state as Atlantic moisture struggled to reach west of the Appalachians. The continued effects of an abnormally warm March were noticed in the state s flora and fauna that matured at rates a few weeks faster than normal. The coolest weather of the month came on the mornings of May 11 th and 18 th when readings dropped into the 30 s across the northern half of the state. Sub-freezing temperatures were common in the northern tier valleys. There were very few severe weather reports for what is typically an active thunderstorm month in Pennsylvania at least until Memorial Day weekend. The first tornado of the year occurred on May 2 nd in Potter County where an EF0 moved through some farmland. The Sunday of Memorial Day weekend brought 52 reports of hail and wind damage mainly in the central part of the state. Record heat and unusually high dew points caused thunderstorms to boil up each afternoon. A cold front finally pushed the tropical air out to sea on May 29 th, but not before triggering another outbreak of severe thunderstorms with 67 reports of hail and wind damage. The month concluded on a tranquil note with seasonably mild, dry weather. Temperatures ranged from +2.5F to more than +7.0F from normal, reversing a cooling trend that had set in during April. Some parts of the central and northeast counties had its top 10 wettest Mays, while portions of northwest Pennsylvania accrued a deficit of more than 1 inch for the month, adding to the drier than usual year so far. In total, 42 reports of hail came in and 102 wind damage claims during May Other extremes are reported below:

2 Here are the weather extremes across Pennsylvania (observations taken at 8AM EDT) during May 2012 from the NWS Cooperative & ASOS Networks of which our office receives routine observations. The extremes occurred in the 24-hour period prior to the date listed. Parameter Location Value Date (8 AM EDT) County Highest Temperature Lowest Temperature Greatest Cumulative Liquid Precipitation Least Cumulative Liquid Precipitation York 3 Mi. SSW Pump Stn Oswayo 1 Mi. ENE Lehighton 3.3 Mi. WSW Roseville 6.0 Mi. ENE 97 F May 29 th York 23 F May 12 th Potter 9.84 May 1 st -May 31 st Carbon 2.38 May 1 st -May 31 st Bradford Links to Pennsylvania Weather Stories during May, 2012 Frost takes bite out of PA fruit crops Chestnut trees are making a comeback after disease and climate shifts in PA and surrounding states Pennsylvania requires insurance companies to state how they will prepare for climate change --_except in_america Flooding causes lake use problems Aldred-water-levels/-/ / /-/9tj984/-/index.html

3 Reports of West Nile Virus - early / / /-/cemgop/-/index.html

4 The Pennsylvania Observer FEATURED CLIMATE HIGHLIGHT By: Paul Knight The outlook for the summer months (Jun-Jul-Aug) based on recent large anomalies of temperature and precipitation in various parts of the nation. It was the third driest winter (Dec- Feb) in the western region (CA/NV) and by far the warmest 6-month period from October-March in the Midwest. It was the fifth wettest Jan-Mar in the South region and ninth driest first quarter to the year in the Southwest.

5 When comparing these to previous years, only 1999 and 1964 were common in three of the four regions. The composite for the following summer temps/rain show only a moist signal for western PA.

6 The Pennsylvania Observer LONG RANGE OUTLOOK By: Kyle Imhoff The following map indicates temperature departures from normal, in degrees Fahrenheit, for the month of May:

7 Similarly, below is a map of percent of normal precipitation for the month of May:

8 The anomalous temperature and precipitation regions from the above images were matched with the 9 US climate regions assigned by NCDC with May data for the past 117 years. The following table indicates regions in which the 2012 anomalies fell within the top 20 warmest, coolest, driest, or wettest years as indicated by the table header. The years listed for each region indicate the top 20 extremes from Years in red are analogous years that match for all 4 regions, orange match 3 of the 4 regions, and yellow match 2 of the 4 regions: Ohio Valley - Warmest Northwest - Coolest South - Driest Upper Midwest - Wettest

9 When utilizing all the years listed above as analogies for the following June-July, these are the anomalies noted for temperature (left) and precipitation (right):

10 6/1 6/3 6/5 6/7 6/9 6/11 6/13 6/15 6/17 6/19 6/21 6/23 6/25 6/27 6/29 7/1 7/3 7/5 7/7 7/9 7/11 7/13 7/15 7/17 7/19 7/21 7/23 7/25 7/27 7/29 7/31 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal (deg F) Western Pennsylvania Temperature Forecast June - July Forecast 5-Day Mean Forecast Verification 5-Day Mean Verification Normal

11 6/1 6/3 6/5 6/7 6/9 6/11 6/13 6/15 6/17 6/19 6/21 6/23 6/25 6/27 6/29 7/1 7/3 7/5 7/7 7/9 7/11 7/13 7/15 7/17 7/19 7/21 7/23 7/25 7/27 7/29 7/31 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal (deg F) Central Pennsylvania Temperature Forecast June - July Forecast 5-Day Mean Forecast Verification 5-Day Mean Verification Normal

12 6/1 6/3 6/5 6/7 6/9 6/11 6/13 6/15 6/17 6/19 6/21 6/23 6/25 6/27 6/29 7/1 7/3 7/5 7/7 7/9 7/11 7/13 7/15 7/17 7/19 7/21 7/23 7/25 7/27 7/29 7/31 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal (deg F) Eastern Pennsylvania Temperature Forecast June - July Forecast 5-Day Mean Forecast Verification 5-Day Mean Verification Normal

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