Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: March 06, 2012 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO

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1 Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: March 06, 2012 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO Warmer than average temperatures dominated the northern and eastern regions of the country in December, January and February, leading to the fourth warmest winter on record for the contiguous United States. The winter season was also drier than average for the Lower 48, with dry conditions experienced across the West and the Southeast but wetter than average conditions in the Central and Southern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley. The average contiguous U.S. temperature during the December February period was 36.8 F, 3.9 F ABOVE the long term average the warmest since The precipitation averaged across the nation was 5.70 inches, 0.78 inch below the long term average. WARMER THAN NORMAL temperatures were widespread with twenty seven states in the Northern Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast having winter temperatures ranked among their ten warmest. Only New Mexico had winter temperatures below its 20th century average. Statewide precipitation totals were mixed during the winter season. The western states were particularly dry with California having its 2nd DRIEST winter on record, at 7.82 inches BELOW NORMAL. Montana was eighth driest, and Oregon and Idaho were both tenth driest for the season.

2 DRIER THAN NORMAL conditions were also present across the Northern Plains, Southwest, Southeast, and Northeast. ABOVE NORMAL precipitation occurred in the central United States, from the Ohio Valley into the Southern Plains. The warm and dry conditions during the 2011/12 winter season limited snowfall for many locations. According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, snow cover extent during winter was approximately 237,000 square miles BELOW the average the third smallest winter snow cover footprint in the 46 year satellite record. Snowpack was particularly limited across parts of the West, where parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona had snowpack less than half of average. For the winter period, NOAA s U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10% and lowest 10% of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones, was the ninth highest value in the 102 year period of record, with nearly one third of the nation experiencing climate extremes as defined by this index. The elevated value was largely driven by extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures across the Southeast, Upper Midwest, and Ohio Valley. Despite having a record cold January, Alaska had a seasonally normal temperature at 1.4 F BELOW NORMAL, ranking as the 35th coldest winter in the 94 year record for the state. A WARMER THAN NORMAL December and February balanced the very cold January temperatures, resulting in a winter temperature near NORMAL. During February, the contiguous United States experienced ABOVE NORMAL temperatures with a national average temperature of 38.3 F. This was 3.6 F ABOVE NORMAL, making it the 17th warmest February on record. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL temperatures were present across the Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast during February. The Massachusetts statewide average temperature tied with 1998 as the warmest February on record at 7.9 F ABOVE NORMAL. In total, 12 states had February temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Precipitation totals were mixed during February, resulting in a nationally averaged precipitation total 0.25 inch BELOW NORMAL of 2.02 inches. Dry conditions were present across the West, Southeast, and Midwest. The Northeast was particularly dry, where New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New Jersey each had a top ten dry February. In contrast, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Louisiana had February precipitation totals among their ten wettest. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of February 28th, about 39 percent of the contiguous United States was experiencing drought conditions, a slight increase compared to the beginning of the month. However, the percent area experiencing the worst category of drought, called D4 or exceptional drought, shrank from 3.2 percent to 2.5 percent. Drought conditions generally improved across the Southern Plains where there has been above average precipitation for several months. Drought conditions deteriorated across parts of the Southeast and the West, which had been DRIER THAN NORMAL. According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the monthly snow cover extent across the contiguous United States was approximately 1.0 million square miles, which was 139,200 square miles BELOW the average. The small monthly snow cover extent emerges despite several large winter storms which impacted the Rockies and Northern Plains during the month.

3 According to preliminary data from NOAA s Storm Prediction Center, there were 57 tornado reports during February, nearly twice the NORMAL number of tornadoes for the month. Most of the tornadoes occurred on the 28th and 29th, when a strong storm system spawned several strong tornadoes from Nebraska to Tennessee, causing an estimated 13 fatalities.

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7 February Station Records Location Record Type Value Previous Record (date) Denver Int l AP, CO Denver Int l AP, CO All time daily snowfall record for the month All time three(3) day snowfall record for the month 12.5 ins. FEB ins. FEB 19, ins. FEB ins. FEB 1912 Key West Int l AP, FL FEB wettest day on record 4.34 ins. FEB ins. FEB 28, 1954 Monticello, AR North Little Rock, AR Greenwood, MS Monroe, LA Valdez, AK FEB all time high temperature record All time record low sea level pressure (tied) FEB all time high temperature record FEB all time high temperature record FEB all time snow depth record 85.0 F FEB F FEB 27, ins. FEB ins. FEB 28, F FEB F FEB 24 and 27, F FEB F FEB 9, ins. FEB ins. FEB 27 and 28, 1990 Jackson, KY Warmest meteorological winter on record Average of 41.6 F Average of 41.2 F Philadelphia, PA Eighth warmest FEB on record (tied) Average of 40.9 F Average of 40.9 F 1976 the warmest occurred FEB 1925 with an average of 42.2 F

8 Philadelphia, PA Fourth warmest meteorological winter on record Average of 40.7 F Average of 40.4 F the warmest occurred in with an average of 43.4 F Allentown, NJ Fourth warmest FEB on record Average of 36.6 F Average of 36.5 F 1976 the warmest occurred FEB 1998 with an average of 38.6 F Allentown, NJ Second warmest meteorological winter on record (tied) Average of 36.1 F Average of 36.1 F the warmest occurred in with an average of 36.2 F Allentown, NJ Fourth driest FEB on record (tied) 1.11 ins ins. FEB 1987 the driest occurred FEB 2002 with 0.55 ins. The following graphic shows the upper level storm track, measured at approximately 18,000 feet above sea level, averaged for FEBRUARY 2012: Notice that the main core of the jet (5,300 to 5,400 meter heights) was shifted well north, well into central and northern Canada. As a result, no cold air intrusions were allowed to enter the continental USA, equating to wide spread warmth and large areas with ABOVE NORMAL temperatures.

9 This displacement of the main jet stream core during FEBRUARY 2012, showed this departure from normal positioning and versus normal:

10 As stated above, about 39 percent of the contiguous United States was experiencing drought conditions, a slight increase compared to the beginning of the month. The percent area experiencing the worst category of drought, called D4 or exceptional drought, shrank from 3.2 percent to 2.5 percent during FEBRUARY.

11 Our long range forecast model did well last month, more than adequately identifying the exaggerated warmth across the central states and mid continent, although understating the warmth to be across New England and the NE USA. I think the analogs, while providing strong support for temperatures, failed to provide adequate support for precipitation forecasts, as our outlooks failed to hit the mid con wetness observed during FEBRUARY. These graphics depict our model forecasts for FEBRUARY 2012 made at the end of JANUARY 2012: These graphics depict actual conditions occurring in FEBRUARY 2012: The following graphics depict FEBRUARY 2012 departure from normal temperatures compared to those of FEBRUARY 2011 (this year to last year; LY to TY ):

12 The following graphics depict FEBRUARY 2012 departure from normal precipitation compared to FEBRUARY 2011 (this year to last year; LY to TY ): Here are our regional climatic hub center weather station verifications for FEBRUARY 2012: Regional City and State MO. TEMPS ( F) MO. PRECIP. (ins.) MO. SNOWFALL (ins.) OBS NOR DFN OBS NOR DFN (%) OBS NOR DFN Honolulu HI % Seattle WA % Portland OR % Spokane Intl WA % % Pendleton OR % % Santa Rosa CA % LA Airport CA % Redding CA % Sacramento CA % Fresno CA % Winnemucca NV % % Tonopah NV % % Phoenix AZ % Albuquerque NM % % Salt Lake City UT % % Grand Junction CO % % OBS = Observed, DFN = Departure from NORMAL

13 Regional City and State MO. TEMPS ( F) MO. PRECIP. (ins.) MO. SNOWFALL (ins.) OBS NOR DFN OBS NOR DFN (%) OBS NOR DFN Great Falls MT % % Casper WY % % Denver CO % % Grand Forks ND % % Rapid City SD % % Omaha NE % % Kansas City MO % % Oklahoma City OK % % Lubbock TX % % Dallas Ft. Worth TX % % San Antonio TX % Minneapolis MN % % Green Bay WI % % Detroit MI % % OBS = Observed, DFN = Departure from NORMAL Regional City and State MO. TEMPS ( F) MO. PRECIP. (ins.) MO. SNOWFALL (ins.) OBS NOR DFN OBS NOR DFN (%) OBS NOR DFN Buffalo NY % % Burlington VT % % Boston MA % % Pittsburgh PA % % Philadelphia PA % % Baltimore MD % % Chicago O'Hare IL % % Indianapolis IN % % Louisville KY % % New Orleans LA % Raleigh Durham NC % % Wilmington NC % Atlanta GA % Tallahassee FL % Orlando FL % OBS = Observed, DFN = Departure from NORMAL

14 Regional City and State MO. TEMPS ( F) MO. PRECIP. (ins.) MO. SNOWFALL (ins.) OBS NOR DFN OBS NOR DFN (%) OBS NOR DFN Prince George BC % % Edmonton AB % % Saskatoon SK % % Winnipeg MB % % Kenora ON % % Timmins ON % % Muskoka ON % % Toronto ON % % Ottawa ON % % Barrow AK % % Nome AK % % Fairbanks AK % % Anchorage AK % % Juneau AK % Regional City and State OBS = Observed, DFN = Departure from NORMAL MO. TEMPS ( F) MO. PRECIP. (ins.) MO. SNOWFALL (ins.) OBS NOR DFN OBS NOR DFN (%) OBS NOR DFN Continental US % % So. Canada % % Alaska % % Equally Weighted Inputs of Regional Cities La Niña weakened during February 2012, as NEAR to ABOVE average sea surface temperatures (SST) emerged in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, below average SSTs persisted in the central Pacific, as indicated by the latest weekly Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 indices which were near 0.5 C. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened notably, as reflected by a shallow lens (0m to ~25m depth) of positive temperature anomalies east of 125 W and by diminished below average temperatures east of the Date Line. These changes are partly associated with strong low level westerly wind anomalies across the eastern Pacific, which at times reflected the absence of equatorial easterlies in that region. Nonetheless, the larger scale atmospheric circulation anomalies continued to reflect the ongoing La Niña. Enhanced lowlevel equatorial easterlies persisted over the central and west central Pacific, while convection remained suppressed in the western and central Pacific, and enhanced over Malaysia and the Philippines. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a weakening La Niña. A majority of models predict ENSO NEUTRAL conditions to return during March May 2012 and to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer The rapid weakening of the negative surface and subsurface temperature anomalies during February 2012, combined with the historical tendency for La Niña to dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring, lends support to the return of ENSO neutral conditions in the coming months. Therefore, La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO NEUTRAL conditions by the end of April 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

15 Because impacts often lag the demise of an ENSO episode, La Niña like impacts are expected to persist into the upcoming season. Over the U.S. during March May 2012, La Niña is associated with an increased chance of above average temperatures across the south central U.S., and below average temperatures in the northwestern U.S. Also, above average precipitation is favored across western Washington, the Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes, while drier than average conditions are more likely across Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the southwestern U.S.

16 Predicted ENSO Values and all (multiple) NWS Model Variance WeatherBank Forecast In late FEBRUARY, I reviewed three patterns for trend mapping comparisons; those being: JAN 1 st FEB 27 th

17 JAN 15 th FEB 27 th JAN 31 st FEN 27 th Recognizing similarities in all three, I selected JAN 31 st FEB 27 th this source resulted in a number of close matches (year ID s are pasted in the lower left hand corner; 1952 = 52 ):

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19 Next, because this first draft at analog selection yielded a large number of cases, I added 500mb (18,000 foot air flow [jet stream]) comparison to the same time period, ending Feb. 27 th.

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22 This procedure or additional scrutiny added clarity. Finally, by applying the projected MARCH mb pattern against each of the above years: resulted in a FINAL ANALOG SELECTION of 61 at 12.5%, 81 at 12.5%, 87 at 12.5%, 92 at 25.0%, and 00 at 37.5% (as a side note, added confidence and strong support using these analog mixes were received when I applied them backward, against FEBRUARY 2012, compared to actual conditions):

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24 Thus, WeatherBank s forecast is as follows: MARCH 2012 Monthly Temperature Departures MARCH 2012 Monthly Precipitation Departures APRIL 2012 Monthly Temperature Departures APRIL 2012 Monthly Precipitation Departures MAY 2012 Monthly Temperature Departures MAY 2012 Monthly Precipitation Departures

25 WeatherBank s Winter Forecast Forecast Monthly Numerical Ratings for WINTER (out of 62 past winters from ): Forecast Made Oct. 2, 2011: o Winter Full USA: 236,781 HDDs; 57 th Coldest; o Winter GCS: 67,767 HDDs; 56 th Coldest; (GCS = Gas Consuming States) Forecast Made Oct. 31, 2011: o Winter Full USA: 251,773 HDDs; 42 nd Coldest; o Winter GCS: 74,756 HDDs; 33 rd Coldest; (GCS = Gas Consuming States) Forecast Made Dec. 11, 2011: o Winter Full USA: 240,908 HDDs; 57 TH Coldest; o Winter GCS: 67,162 HDDs; 60 TH Coldest; (GCS = Gas Consuming States) Forecast Made Jan. 03, 2012: o Winter Full USA: 238,039 HDDs; 57 TH Coldest; o Winter GCS: 69,310 HDDs; 56 TH Coldest; (GCS = Gas Consuming States) Forecast Made Feb. 1, 2012: o Winter Full USA: 233,868 HDDs; 59 TH Coldest; o Winter GCS: 66,716 HDDs; 58 TH Coldest; (GCS = Gas Consuming States) Forecast Made March 4, 2012: o Winter Full USA: 227,596 HDDs; 61 st Coldest; o Winter GCS: 64,163 HDDs; 62 nd Coldest; (GCS = Gas Consuming States) Winter : 256,166 HDDs; Winter : 245,800 HDDs; Winter : 257,204 HDDs; Winter : 253,625 HDDs; Winter : 246,650 HDDs; 5-Year Winter Average: 251,889 HDDs 10-Year Winter Average: 247,137 HDDs WARMEST WINTER since : ,753 HDDs COLDEST WINTER since : ,056 HDDs

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30 Background Methodology for the WeatherBank LROM Using observed calendar day MAX and MIN temperatures at major cities across North America, WeatherBank generates daily Heating Degree Days (HDDs) and Daily Cooling Degree Days (CDDs). By comparing observations of HDDs in winter and CDDs during summer, one may obtain a real time description of how warm or cold the current season is. Basically, the hotter a location is in summer, or colder in winter, the more degree days that location earns. By adding all degree days from all locations, one can obtain a relative description of the current season. By comparing the current season to the degree days totals for past seasons, one obtains a ranking of the current season. WeatherBank's Long Range Outlook Model (LROM) fundamentally assumes that future weather patterns will be similar to a highly correlating, past weather pattern that was determine by trend mapping. All similar weather trends of the past are compared to the current weather trend, then analyzed using a variety of tests. Global inputs such as MEI, average upper level flow patterns, etc., are also used. Correlation coefficients for each input years are generated, and used to define the relative strength of each year and how that trend could be used in the forecast process. Since mid August 2007, strong correlations have remained between the equally weighted (same calendar 13 week period called current, to the same 13 week period of all past years; no lag applied) time periods of the past.

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