2003 Moisture Outlook

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1 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss

2 Through 1999

3 Through 1999

4 Fort Collins Total Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sep) Precipitation (inches) Month

5

6 Reservoir Storage Statewide Reservoir Levels for Colorado Percent of Average Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Feb Date Provisional Data Provided by NRCS

7 Colorado Statewide Annual Temperatures through Colorado Average Annual Temperature ( ) Temperature (degrees F) Year From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center

8 Wyoming Statewide Annual Temperatures through Wyoming Average Annual Temperature ( ) Temperature (Degrees F) Years From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center

9 Summer Temperatures Fort Collins, Fort Collins Summer Average Temperature (June - August), Summer Total 7 year running mean 74 Temperature (Deg. F) Years

10 Where do we stand now?

11 Temperature - Water Year Departure from average, degree F Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

12 Water Year 2003 Colorado UPPER SAN JUAN SNOTEL

13 Water Year 2003 Colorado JOE WRIGHT SNOTEL

14 Water Year 2003 Wyoming Power River SNOTEL

15 Data from USDA/NRCS

16

17

18 What May Be Ahead in 2003

19 Precipitation Monthly Average Precipitation for Selected Sites in the South Platte Basin Hoosier Pass Denver Stapleton Sterling Precipitation (inches) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

20 Monthly Average Precipitation for Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Lamar Cheyenne Wells Walsh Center Fruita

21 A few storms contribute a large fraction of annual precipitation while many small events contribute a small fraction. Precipitation

22 Greeley Daily Accumulated Precipitation 20 Accumulated Daily Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Day

23 What Happens Next We have never experienced 2 consecutive extreme statewide drought years. Past multi-year drought, characterized by one extreme year preceded and followed by other dry year. Entire Region rarely all recovers quickly and at the same time. Hope for the best, plan for the worst!!

24 Positive Indicators Late winter snows Cool spring Multi-day precipitation Wet Snow Low intensity rainfall Light winds High humidity Abundant cloud cover

25 Negative Indicators Little late winter snow Missed opportunities Warm spring Brief, sporadic precipitation High intensity rainfall Frequent, strong winds Low humidity Abundant sunshine

26 Current Indicators El Niño still present Unfavorable Pacific decadal oscillation Missed opportunities February better but not a good indicator Wet often follows dry Most extreme dry periods last one year (Exceptions: SE CO)

27 Temperature March-May May 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center

28 Precipitation March-May May 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center

29 Temperature June-Aug 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center

30 Precipitation June-Aug 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center

31 Breaking This Drought A wet spring is essential to begin that process. Will Be Tough

32 COAGMET Weather Data for Agriculture Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of: Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Solar energy Evapotranspiration

33 Colorado Climate Magazine Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic $15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs

34 CoCo RaHS YOU CAN HELP!

35 Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading click on Drought then click on Presentations

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