Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook
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1 Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss
2 How we got into this drought!
3 Fort Collins Total Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sep) Precipitation (inches) Month
4 Through 1999
5 Through 1999
6
7
8
9
10 Reservoir Storage Statewide Reservoir Levels for Colorado Percent of Average Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Feb Date Provisional Data Provided by NRCS
11 Colorado Statewide Annual Temperatures through Colorado Average Annual Temperature ( ) Temperature (degrees F) Year From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center
12 Summer Temperatures Fort Collins, Fort Collins Summer Average Temperature (June - August), Summer Total 7 year running mean 74 Temperature (Deg. F) Years
13 Where do we stand now?
14 Oct Jan 2003 Precipitation as percent of average
15 Temperature - Water Year Departure from average, degree F Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys
16 Water Year 2003 UPPER SAN JUAN SNOTEL
17 Water Year 2003 HOOSIER PASS SNOTEL
18 Water Year 2003 JOE WRIGHT SNOTEL
19
20
21 Grand Lake 1 NW 2003 Water Year (through October '02-January '03) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 35 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
22 Akron 4E 2003 Water Year (through October '02-January'03) Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
23
24 What May Be Ahead in 2003
25 Precipitation Monthly Average Precipitation for Selected Sites in the South Platte Basin Hoosier Pass Denver Stapleton Sterling Precipitation (inches) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month
26 Monthly Average Precipitation for Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Lamar Cheyenne Wells Walsh Center Fruita
27 A few storms contribute a large fraction of annual precipitation while many small events contribute a small fraction. Precipitation
28 Greeley Daily Accumulated Precipitation 20 Accumulated Daily Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Day
29 What Happens Next We have never experienced 2 consecutive extreme statewide drought years. Past multi-year drought, characterized by one extreme year preceded and followed by other dry year. Entire State rarely all recovers quickly and at the same time. Hope for the best, plan for the worst!!
30 Our Path For 2003 Precipitation (inches) Greeley, Colorado Monthly Accumulated Precipitation for Water Year 2003 vs. 30-year Averages ( ). 30-yr Acc WY2003 Acc Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month
31 Positive Indicators Late winter snows Cool spring Multi-day precipitation Low intensity rainfall Light winds High humidity Abundant cloud cover
32 Negative Indicators Little late winter snow Missed opportunities Warm spring Brief, sporadic precipitation High intensity rainfall Frequent, strong winds Low humidity Abundant sunshine
33 Current Indicators El Niño still present Unfavorable Pacific decadal oscillation Missed opportunities February not a good indicator Wet often follows dry Most extreme dry periods last one year (Exceptions: SE CO)
34 Temperature March-May May 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center
35 Precipitation March-May May 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center
36 Temperature June-Aug 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center
37 Precipitation June-Aug 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center
38 Breaking This Drought A wet spring is essential to begin that process. Will Be Tough
39 COAGMET Weather Data for Agriculture Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of: Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Solar energy Evapotranspiration
40 Colorado Climate Magazine Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic $15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs
41
42 CoCo RaHS YOU CAN HELP!
43 Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading click on Drought then click on Presentations
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