Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update

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Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27

59 112 92 56 62 102 130 102 56 48 130 120 111 January 9, 2018 Teleconference #: 877-848-7030 Access #: 3773588 Security Code: 1801 1:00 pm CST http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.

1 Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers January 9, 2018 Teleconference #: Access #: Security Code: :00 pm CST The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.

2 WEATHER / CLIMATE Mr. Doug Kluck Climatologist, Central Region Climate Services Director National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Kansas City, MO 2

3 Conditions Last 30 days 3

4 Conditions Since 10/1/

5 Mountain Snowpack 5

6 Plains Snowpack (January 7 th, 2018) (snow water equivalent) 6

7 Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (1/16-1/22/17) 7

8 January Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities 8

9 3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (January - February - March) 9

10 Drought Update 10

11 Key Points (Summary) Current Conditions Current ENSO condition La Niña Plains snowpack widespread but relatively shallow Mountain snowpack average to above normal north (MT, WY) and below normal south (CO and s. WY) Predictions La Niña will fade to neutral in the spring Likely continued cool north through early spring, warm south/west Precipitation into spring Leans wet northern basin (slightly greater than normal chances) Slightly better chances of continued dry to the south and west 11

12 BASIN CONDITIONS / FLOOD OUTLOOK Kevin Low Hydrologist, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center National Weather Service Pleasant Hill, MO 12

13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER SUMMARY POINTS Mountain snowpack is slightly above normal. Plains snowpack is widespread, but very shallow. Not a significant player at this time. Warm and dry Fall and early Winter should help decrease flood potential over much of the basin. Significant ice jamming has not been reported, but will need to be watched through early Spring. NWS will issue first Spring Flood Outlook on Thursday, February 15 th. 13 Building a Weather-Ready Nation

14 UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT UPDATE FOR 2018 John Remus, P.E., Chief U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 14 12

15 UPPER BASIN RUNOFF FOR 2018 Nicole Shorney, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 15 12

7 6 5 4 Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2018 Forecast 2018 Calendar Year Forecast =

16 Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2018 Forecast 2018 Calendar Year Forecast = 26.6 MAF Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Observed 2018 Forecast Average 16

17 Inches of Water Equivalent Missouri River Basin Mountain Snowpack Water Content January 1, 2018 Total above Fort Peck O N D J F M A M J J A S Inches of Water Equivalent % of average 134% of average Total Fort Peck to Garrison O N D J F M A M J J A S Ave Ave Normally by January 1, about 44% of the peak mountain SWE has occurred in both reaches. 17

18 Missouri River at Omaha January 8,

19 RESERVOIR SYSTEM REGULATION Joel Knofczynski, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 19

20 MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM SYSTEM STORAGE ZONES AND ALLOCATIONS Exclusive Flood Control 6% Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% Historic max Jan 8, Storage In MAF* Current Storage Carryover Multiple Use 53% Historic min *Storages updated in August 2013 based on reservoir surveys. Permanent Pool 25%

21 CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS JAN 8, 2018 Fort Peck Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & 2234 Multiple Use Elevation in feet msl Garrison Elevation in feet msl Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool 1.8 feet above base of Flood Control zone Permanent Pool 2.4 feet above base of Flood Control zone Oahe Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Elevation in feet msl Fort Randall Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Elevation in feet msl Permanent Pool 1.4 feet below base of Flood Control zone Permanent Pool 8.9 feet below base of Flood Control zone

22 KEY POINTS Currently, 16.1 MAF of 16.3 MAF of flood storage space is available. Full navigation season. Full service flow support for season. Annual power production of 10.1 BKWhrs (average is 9.3 BKWhrs) Good service to all authorized purposes. 22

23 21 23

24 FEBRUARY S UPDATE Tuesday, Feb 6, :00 pm CST 24

25 CONTACT INFORMATION Name Office Address Phone Number Eileen Williamson Doug Kluck Kevin Low John Remus Nicole Shorney Joel Knofczynski USACE, NWD Public Affairs Office NOAA, Kansas City, Climatologist National Weather Service, Hydrologist USACE, Chief, Missouri River Basin Water Management USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer

Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update

Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric