Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales

Transcription

1 Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales AUGUST 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The August average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 73.0 F, 0.9 F above average and the 31st warmest on record. The August contiguous U.S. maximum (daytime) temperature was 85.8 F, 0.7 F above average, the 40th warmest on record. The August contiguous U.S. minimum (nighttime) temperature was 60.1 F, 1.1 F above average, the 25th warmest on record. Five states in the West Arizona, California, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington and five states in New England Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island were much warmer than average during August, no state was record warm. Several locations in both the Northwest and Northeast were record warm for August, including JFK airport in New York City, New York; Caribou, Maine; Rome, Oregon; and Crescent City, California. Below-average August temperatures were observed across the Central Plains and Midwest, no state was record cold. In general, maximum temperatures were cooler compared to history than the minimum temperatures in the region. During August, there were 3,675 record warm daily high (1,442) and low (2,233) temperature records, which is about two and a half times the 1,498 record cold daily high (985) and low (513) temperature records.

2 Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during August was 37.2 percent above average and the 25th highest in the period of record. The August precipitation total for the Lower 48 was 2.36 inches, 0.26 inch below average, and the 28th driest on record. Below-average precipitation was observed across parts of the West, South, and Northeast. Connecticut and Louisiana were much drier than average. Parts of the Northern Plains and Southeast were wetter than average. In the Southeast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Ericka brought beneficial rainfall at the end of the month to drought-stricken areas of southern Florida. South Dakota was much wetter than average during August. A heavy precipitation event in and around Sioux Falls, South Dakota at the end of the month brought torrential rainfall and flash flooding to the area. On the south side of the city, over 7.5 inches of precipitation was observed. According to the South Dakota State Climatologist, one of the South Dakota Mesonet stations recorded 4.00 inches of rain in 70 minutes with 1.35 inches of that fell in only 10 minutes. According to the September 1st U.S. Drought Monitor report, 30.4 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, up 3.3 percent since late July. Drought conditions improved across parts of the Central Plains and Northeast, where it rained. Drought worsened across the Northwest, Northeast, and Southeast. Drought conditions degraded rapidly in parts of the South where hot temperatures and lack of precipitation quickly stressed manmade and natural systems. Drought conditions remain dire in the West, where wildfires charred over one million acres in August. Outside of the contiguous U.S., drought changed little in Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. The remnants of several tropical systems impacted both Hawaii and Puerto Rico, but the beneficial rainfall did little to improve longer-drought conditions.

3

4

5

6 Climate Highlights Year to Date January August 2015 The year-to-date average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 55.5 F, 1.6 F above average, the ninth warmest year-to-date on record and warmest since Above-average temperatures were observed in the West and Southeast. Thirteen states were much warmer than average, of which California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington were record warm. Alaska had its second warmest year-to-date, with a temperature 4.0 F above average, only January- August of 1981 was warmer. Below-average temperatures were observed in the Midwest and Northeast. The January-August contiguous U.S. maximum (daytime) temperature was 67.4 F, 1.4 F above average, the 16th warmest on record. The January-August contiguous U.S. minimum (nighttime) temperature was 43.5 F, 1.8 F above average, the 10th warmest on record. Based on REDTI, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during January-August was 17.1 percent above average and the 40th highest in the period of record. The year-to-date precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was inches, 1.43 inches above average, and the 24th wettest on record. Above-average precipitation was observed across the central US, where eights states were much wetter than average. Oklahoma had its wettest January-August on record with a precipitation total 156 percent of average. Below-average precipitation was observed along both coasts. California, Connecticut, and Oregon each had precipitation totals that were much below-average. California had its fifth driest year-to-date receiving less than half the average precipitation.

7 The USCEI for the year-to-date was 35 percent above average and the 17th highest value on record. On the nationalscale, extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures, one-day precipitation totals, and days with precipitation were much above average. On the regional scale, the Northwest had its highest CEI for the year-to-date due to extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures, the spatial extent of drought, and one-day precipitation totals. The West had its second highest year-to-date CEI due to extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures and the spatial extent of drought. Only the January-August CEI of 2014 was higher in the West Climate Highlights Soil Moisture Conditions

8

9

10

11

12

13 Climate Highlights Severe Weather Analysis All Event Distribution August Tornado Event Distribution August

14 Wind Event Distribution August Hail Event Distribution - August

15 Long Range Analog Analysis Due to the overwhelming evidence for a strong and building ESNO, I am departing from the above analog mapping and have installed the following ENSO years from NOV. 1, 2015 out through 2016 and beyond: , 20% , 10% , 15% , 20% , 5% , 30% Thus, November 2015 using these ENSO analogs trend as follows:

16 December 2015 using these ENSO analogs trend as follows: January 2016 using these ENSO analogs trend as follows: February 2016 using these ENSO analogs trend as follows:

17 March 2016 using these ENSO analogs trend as follows: European Model Outputs: OCT, NOV, DEC NOV, DEC, JAN

18 DEC, JAN, FEB JAN, FEB, MAR

19 NOAA CFS V2 Model Outputs:

20

21 NOAA Official Seasonal Forecasts Temperature and Precipitation:

22

23 AccuWeather s 2015 Summer Forecast Monthly CDDs for SUMMER 2015 (out of 66 past summer s from , GCS = Gas Consuming States): Forecast Made June 22, 2015: o Summer 2015 Full USA: 52,752 CDDs; 21 st Warmest; o Summer 2015 GCS: 23,119 CDDs; 34 th Warmest; Forecast Made July 17, 2015: o Summer 2015 Full USA: 53,851 CDDs; 16 th Warmest; o Summer 2015 GCS: 24,076 CDDs; 29 th Warmest Forecast Made August 18, 2015: o Summer 2015 Full USA: 55,549 CDDs; 10 th Warmest; o Summer 2015 GCS: 24,850 CDDs; 18 th Warmest Forecast Made Sept. 25, 2015: o FINAL Summer 2015 Full USA: 57,672 CDDs; 6 th Warmest; o FINAL Summer 2015 GCS: 25,853 CDDs; 11 th Warmest Summer 2014: Summer 2013: Summer 2012: Summer 2011: Summer 2010: Summer 2009: Summer 2008: Summer 2007: 5-Year Summer Average: 10-Year Summer Average: HOTTEST SUMMER since 1950: COLDEST SUMMER since 1950: 52,711 CDDs; 22 nd Hottest 57,211 CDDs; 7 th Hottest 62,104 CDDs; 1 st Hottest 59,346 CDDs; 2 nd Hottest 57,960 CDDs; 3 rd Hottest 49,025 CDDs; 40 th Hottest 52,756 CDDs; 20 th Hottest 57,361 CDDs; 6 th Hottest 57,866 CDDs 56,291 CDDs 2012, 62,104 CDDs 1950, 41,519 CDDs

24

25

26

27

28