FIRST RESPONDERS BACK TO BASICS

Transcription

1 FIRST RESPONDERS BACK TO BASICS NHC CONFERENCE 2017 Leonard B. Symons Deputy Commissioner Public Safety Town of Oyster Bay N.Y.

2 SYMONS SAYS: LINE History teaches us that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability you can reduce the effects of a disaster.

3 THE BIG BATTLE 1. HURRICANE HYPE 2. HURRICANE AMNESIA 3. SOCIAL MEDIA 4. MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS

4 Shark Infested Streets in NYC?

5 Wikipedia: Definition of 1 st Responder Employee s of an Emergency Service who are likely to be among the 1 st people to arrive at the scene of An Emergency such as an accident, natural disaster or terrorist attack

6 2007 Such an Innocuous Year? a. Steve Jobs and Apple released the first I-phone. b. Facebook opened itself to anyone with c. Twitter d. Hadoop - software storage e. The Cloud f. Kindle E book revolution g. IBM - Watson

7 1 st Responders - New Definition Emergency Responders / Managers are part of the social safety network and are interpreters of weather information for the public and decision makers for planning and responding to events that threaten life and property

8 The New 1st Responder a. The power of one b. Trusted source c. Decision Makers d. Information Brokers (weather briefers)

9 Meteorologist a. Professionals b. Education to become a (MET) is Demanding, Challenging and Humbling Physics, Math, Technology, Software, Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences.

10 The only certainty in tropical cyclone forecasting is uncertainty

11 The only certainty in tropical cyclone forecasting is uncertainty LEONARD SYMONS Deputy Commissioner Public Safety

12 UNCERTAINTY IS THE FUNDAMENTAL COMPONENT OF WEATHER PREDICTION.MAX MAYFIELD

13 MAX MAYFIELD Former Director of the National Hurricane Center I think the day is coming. I think eventually we are going to have a very powerful hurricane in a major metropolitan area worse than what we saw in Katrina and it is going to be a mega-disaster with lots of loss of lives.

14 Tropical Cyclones Tropical Weather Outlook Classified by Maximum Wind Speed Tropical Depression: < 39 mph Tropical Storm: mph Hurricane: 74 mph or greater Major Hurricane: 111 mph or greater

15 Tropical Weather Outlook Climatology Atlantic Hurricanes & Tropical Storms

16 Tropical Outlook 2-Day Formation Potential Current location of disturbances (discussed in the Tropical Weather Outlook) Formation chance during the next 48 hrs Categorical (Low, Medium, and High) Probabilities

17 Tropical Outlook 2-Day Formation Potential Should we be concerned?

18 Tropical Outlook 5-Day Formation Potential Formation potential during the next 5 days Initial location of disturbance (X) indicated Shading represents potential formation area What s the chance this area forms beyond two days?

19 Tropical Outlook 5-Day Formation Potential Tropical Outlook July 31 8am 2 Day 70% 30% 5 Day 70%

20 There is a storm. How confident is the NHC? Contingencies? Are watches possible? Forecast Discussion

21 Forecast Discussion Confidence. Scenarios. Key Concerns. HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT WED AUG AL Hurricane Isaac is inland over southeastern Louisiana near Houma. The cyclone has maintained an impressive radar signature, which includes a ragged 40-nmi diameter eye. Curved convective rain bands have increased in the eastern semicircle, and Doppler radar velocities of near 80 kt over water support keeping Isaac as a minimal hurricane for this advisory. Similar Doppler velocities over land and over Lake Pontchartrain suggest wind gusts to near 80 kt could occur over southeastern Louisiana into this afternoon. By late this afternoon or evening, however, Isaac is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm, and become a tropical depression by Thursday night. Since Isaac is forecast to move slowly over the next hours, there will be a prolonged threat of flooding from heavy rains over the northern Gulf coast area and the south-central United States. Forecasts reasoning Relevant Observations Model Guidance Forecast Uncertainties FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 29.6N 90.7W 12H 30/0000Z 30.2N 91.4W 24H 30/1200Z 31.2N 92.2W 36H 31/0000Z 32.8N 93.1W 48H 31/1200Z 34.6N 93.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

22 Forecast Discussion Confidence. Scenarios. Key Concerns. HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT WED AUG AL Hurricane Isaac is inland over southeastern Louisiana near Houma. The cyclone has maintained an impressive radar signature, which includes a ragged 40-nmi diameter eye. Curved convective rain bands have increased in the eastern semicircle, and Doppler radar velocities of near 80 kt over water support keeping Isaac as a minimal hurricane for this advisory. Similar Doppler velocities over land and over Lake Pontchartrain suggest wind gusts to near 80 kt could occur over southeastern Louisiana into this afternoon. By late this afternoon or evening, however, Isaac is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm, and become a tropical depression by Thursday night. Since Isaac is forecast to move slowly over the next hours, there will be a prolonged threat of flooding from heavy rains over the northern Gulf coast area and the south-central United States. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 29.6N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0000Z 30.2N 91.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1200Z 31.2N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 32.8N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z 34.6N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND Table of track and intensity forecasts

23 $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN/ZELINSKY Tropical Cyclone Update Unexpected Changes. Location. Landfall. HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM CDT WED AUG AL ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... HEAVY SQUALLS LASHING NEW ORELANS AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST... Unexpected changes occur in the cyclone At 1100 am CDT UTC...The center of hurricane Isaac was Estimated near latitude 29.6 north...longitude 90.7 west...or very Near Houma Louisiana...And about 45 miles southwest of New Orleans Louisiana. Isaac is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph...9 Km/h and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A gust to 67 mph was recently reported at Shell Beach, Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions continue along the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION N 90.7W ABOUT 1 MI...2 KM W OF HOUMA LOUISIANA ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MB INCHES Cyclone landfall Issuing international watches and warnings 1-hourly position estimates when a cyclone with an eye is nearing land

24 There is a storm. When is the next update? Can we get a briefing? Timeline for advisories

25 Time in EDT Timeline for Advisories Scheduled Updates 5 am Advisory No Watches/Warnings In Effect 11 am Advisory 5 pm Advisory 11 pm Advisory

26 Timeline for Advisories Scheduled Updates Watches/Warnings In Effect 5 am Advisory 8 am Intermediate Advisory 11 am Advisory 2 pm Intermediate Advisory 5 pm Advisory 8 pm Intermediate Advisory 11 pm Advisory 2 am Intermediate Advisory Time in EDT

27 There is a storm. Where is the greatest concern? When will the hazards begin? Watches and Warnings Notification Fatigue

28 MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS The Global Hawk is a new Bird recently discovered in Butterfly world in Florida.

29 Global Hawk

30 FOLLOW THE LONG SKINNY BLACK LINE AND YOU WILL KNOW WHERE THE STORM IS GOING

31 The Long Skinny Line

32 Hurricane Charley Don t focus on the skinny black line.

33 Tropical Weather Outlook Hurricane Charley Don t focus on the skinny black line.

34 Hurricane Charley Tropical Weather Outlook Don t focus on the skinny black line. 37

35 THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS MY GUIDE THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS MY GUIDE TUNE IN TO YOUR FAVORITE TUNE IN TO YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER PERSON WEATHER PERSON SEE IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CIRCLE SEE IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CIRCLE IF NOT DON T WORRY NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO YOU IF NOT DON T WORRY NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO YOU

36 NHC Forecast Cone The cure for the skinny black line? Probable track of tropical cyclone center Formed by connecting circles centered on each forecast point Each circle uses NHC historical track errors Actual storm position will be within the circle 67% of the time.

37 NHC Atlantic Track Error Trends Significant Reduction in Track Errors Since 1990

38 Change in Average 2-day Track Error Since 1990

39 Change in Average 2-day Track Error Since 1990

40 Cone On a Diet 2005 Cone for Katrina

41 Cone On a Diet 2015 Cone - Smaller cone means more impacts occur outside the cone!

42 Impacts Outside the Cone!

43 NHC Forecast Cone No worries, not in the cone? Only shows information about track uncertainty No information about specific impacts Impacts can occur well outside of the cone Center is expected to move outside the cone about 1/3 of the time.

44 CONE WIND ENHANCEMENT

45 SYMONS SAYS: a. Don t just look at the graphics b. Don t just look at the cone c. Don t just look at the long skinny line

46 Little Progress with Intensity Notable improvements in intensity forecasts over the past few years. Beginning of a trend? h intensity forecasts likely to be off by one SSHS category, and off by two SSHS categories perhaps 5-10% of the time

47 Increasing Error (kt) Forecast Intensity Errors NHC 5-Year Averages The 24 and 48 hour NHC intensity forecasts are on average off by one Saffir-Simpson category Forecast Period (Days)

48 Forecast Intensity Errors Rapid Strengthening Rapid intensification remains a forecast challenge and often results in very large errors Our ability to recognize conditions that favor rapid intensification has improved, however forecasting the extent and timing of that intensification remains difficult. 2 Rapid Strengthening Examples Wilma Advisory 11 (2005) Initial Intensity: 60 kt 24h Intensity Forecast: 80 kt Actual Intensity: 150 kt Error: 70 kt Gonzalo Advisory 7 (2014) Initial Intensity: 75 kt 24h Intensity Forecast: 90 kt Actual Intensity: 115 kt Error: 25 kt

49 SYMONS SAYS: A Category 4 hurricane ( mph) causes 250 times the damage as a Category 1 Even though the major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 & 5 storms) comprise only 21% of all U.S. land falling hurricanes, they account for 83 % of all damage.

50 SYMONS SAYS: FORECAST MODELS a. Computer Simulation of the Global Atmosphere b. Dynamical, Statistical, Ensembles,consensus c. The future of Forecasting Ensemble Predictions vs Deterministic d. GFS vs. Euro (Initialization/Members/Grid Spacing) e. The Future High Resolution (4 NM Grid Spacing) Ensemble Forecast System

51 HOW ABOUT THOSE SPAGHETTI PLOTS? I like my pasta al dente Some of those lines are nowhere near my home. Homemade sauce anyone?

52

53 WHEN I WAS IN SCHOOL, I DID VERY WELL IN MATH. WHEN IT COMES TO NUMBERS, I KNOW WHAT I M DOING. 25% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS 75% FOR NONE. NO NEED TO PANIC NO NEED TO PREPARE

54 Wind Speed Probabilities How Likely. Arrival Times. Inland Threat Location-specific probabilities Tropical-storm-force 58 mph Hurricane-force Text product (fixed set of locations) Cumulative probabilities Onset probabilities Graphical product Cumulative probabilities for points over a large domain

55 Wind NHC Speed Tropical Probabilities Cyclone Advisory Products How are they generated? 1,000 realistic alternative scenarios are created Official NHC forecast Historical NHC track and intensity forecast errors Climatology and persistence wind radii model Weakening over land Track model spread Past NHC track forecast errors are correlated to the spread of track model guidance

56 Wind Speed Probabilities How are they generated? New York City, NY 590 of 1,000 scenarios produce tropical storm winds at that location.

57 Wind Speed Probabilities How are they generated? 59% New York City, NY 590/1,000 = 59% chance of TS force winds

58 Wind Speed Probabilities Tropical Storm Isaac (2012) TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL UTC SUN AUG WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI When are Tropical Storm (34kt) winds most likely to start at Pensacola, FL? FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 30(55) 16(71) 2(73) 1(74) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 15(29) 2(31) 1(32) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 32(42) 31(73) 5(78) X(78) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 5(39) 1(40) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) X(18) Pensacola, FL MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 35(64) 8(72) 1(73) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 8(33) 1(34) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 34(58) 10(68) 1(69) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 7(28) 2(30)

59 Wind Speed NHC Tropical Probabilities Cyclone Advisory Products Hurricane Katrina Landfall of a marginal hurricane in South Florida Low probabilities of hurricane force winds Landfall of a major hurricane along the Gulf Coast Increasing probabilities along the forecast as landfall approaches

60 Wind Speed NHC Tropical Probabilities Cyclone Advisory Products Hurricane Katrina Adv #5 10% chance of hurricane-force winds at any individual point along SE Florida coast 36hr Forecast 80 mph Cat 1 Hurricane Low Probability Uncertainty if Katrina will be a hurricane and the small size of hurricane wind field

61 Wind Speed NHC Tropical Probabilities Cyclone Advisory Products Hurricane Katrina Adv #14 New Orleans TS probability: 59% H probability: 15% 72 hour forecast intensity = 130 mph category 4 hurricane Increasing Probabilities Increasing intensity forecast and decrease in track forecast uncertainty 64

62 Wind Speed NHC Tropical Probabilities Cyclone Advisory Products Hurricane Katrina Adv #18 48 hour forecast intensity = 145 mph category 4 hurricane New Orleans TS probability: 86% H probability: 34% High Probability Increasing intensity forecast and greater track certainty 48hr until landfall

63 Hurrevac Hurrevac Wind threat Wind Speed Probabilities 66 66

64 Hurrevac Hurrevac: Wind Timing All Affected Areas Wind timing Report for Hurricane Arthur Based on Advisory 11 Issued 7/3/ AM EDT Wind Timing All Affected Areas Location 34kt(39mph) 50kt(58mph) 64kt(74mph) 64ktEND(dur) 50ktEND(dur) 34ktEND(dur) Peak Wind NC Dare 07/03 22E 07/04 02E 07/04 03E 07/04 06E [03] 07/04 07E [05] 07/04 09E [11] 90kt (104mph) 07/04 04E NC Hyde 07/03 21E 07/04 01E 07/04 02E 07/04 04E [02] 07/04 06E [05] 07/04 08E [11] 90kt (104mph) 07/04 03E NC Carteret 07/03 16E 07/03 21E 07/04 00E 07/04 03E [03] 07/04 04E [07] 07/04 07E [15] 90kt (104mph) 07/04 02E NC Craven 07/03 18E 07/03 23E 07/04 01E 07/04 02E [01] 07/04 03E [04] 07/04 05E [11] 64kt (74mph) 07/04 01E NC Pamlico 07/03 19E 07/04 00E 07/04 04E [04] 07/04 06E [11] 61kt (70mph) 07/04 02E NC Onslow 07/03 15E 07/03 21E 07/04 01E [04] 07/04 04E [13] 60kt (69mph) 07/03 23E NC Tyrrell 07/03 23E 07/04 03E 07/04 06E [03] 07/04 08E [09] 58kt (67mph) 07/04 04E NC Jones 07/03 18E 07/03 22E 07/04 01E [03] 07/04 04E [10] 56kt (64mph) 07/04 00E NC Beaufort 07/03 20E 07/04 01E 07/04 03E [02] 07/04 06E [10] 55kt (63mph) 07/04 02E NC Currituck 07/04 01E 07/04 05E 07/04 06E [01] 07/04 09E [08] 52kt (60mph) 07/04 05E NC Pender 07/03 15E 07/03 21E 07/03 23E [02] 07/04 02E [11] 52kt (60mph) 07/03 21E NC New Hanover 07/03 13E 07/03 18E 07/03 21E [03] 07/04 01E [12] 52kt (60mph) 07/03 19E NC Brunswick 07/03 12E 07/03 18E 07/03 20E [02] 07/04 00E [12] 52kt (60mph) 07/03 18E NC Washington 07/03 23E 07/04 07E [08] 49kt (56mph) 07/04 03E NC Camden 07/04 01E 07/04 08E [07] 46kt (53mph) 07/04 05E MA Nantucket 07/04 21E 07/05 04E [07] 45kt (52mph) 07/05 00E NC Pasquotank 07/04 02E 07/04 08E [06] 44kt (51mph) 07/04 04E 67

65 WIND TIMING CHARTS AND REPORTS BASED UPON A DETERMINISTIC FORCAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTIES NOT A GOOD PLATFORM OFF OF WHICH TO MAKE DECISIONS UNTIL THE STORM IS CLOSE GOOD FOR GENERAL INFORMATION AND SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

66 EXPERIMENTAL TIME OF ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS GRAPHIC Winds-A critical Planning Threshold 2. Timing estimated using Deterministic NHC Track 3. Monte Carlo wind Speed Probability Model ( 1000 Plausible Scenarios ) 4. Two graphics: 10% Chance of Onset of Trop Winds 50% chance of Onset of Trop Winds

67 Probability Of Arrival Of Tropical Storm Force Winds

68 SURGE IS,LIKE A TSUNAMI A HIGH WALL OF WATER LIKE WHEN YOU HAVE AN EARTHQUAKE There is nothing out there to tell me whether my area will be flooded except my own eyes and ears. I know an earthquake when I see one.

69 Hurricane Katrina Storm Surge

70 IF THE WIND INCREASES, I WOULD CONSIDER EVACUATION. WIND SPEED IS THE CRITERIA FOR EVACUATION.

71 SYMONS SAYS: Old Hurricane adage Hide from the wind and run from the water.

72 I HAVE THIS MAP COLOR CODED WHERE FLOODING IS LINKED TO CATEGORY OF STORM UNDER THE SAFFIR SIMPSON WIND SCALE. IT TELLS ME HOW FAR THE WATER WILL PENETRATE INLAND. THE STORM IS ONLY A CAT 2 I M HOME FREE Remember Ike, Charlie and Irene

73 LONG ISLAND FLOOD MAP

74 WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS GRANDMA SAYS IF WE GO TO THE BEACH, WE CAN T GO INTO THE WATER BECAUSE IT IS TOO DANGEROUS. DAD SAYS GRANDMA MISSED THE LATEST FORECAST SUNNY AND WARM NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT.

75 Waves Tropical and Weather Rip Currents Outlook Can occur when a storm is well offshore Swells from a large hurricane can affect the beach of the entire western Atlantic Hurricane Bertha (2008) - Over 1500 rescues in Ocean City, Maryland - 3 people drowned along the coast of New Jersey Hurricane Bill (2009) - 1 person died in Maine - 1 person died in Florida

76 I HAVE LIVED ALL MY LIFE HERE THE STORMS ALWAYS CURVE AWAY. ANYWAY I AM WORRIED ABOUT WIND NOT WATER.

77 U.S. Tropical Cyclone Deaths Water is responsible for vast majority from

78 SATTELLITES ARE REALLY NOT THAT IMPORTANT SOMEONE TOLD ME THAT IF THE EURO MODEL DID NOT HAVE THE DATA FROM THE 14 POLAR ORBITING SATTELLITES, THE FIVE DAY FORECAST WOULD HAVE HAD SANDY MISSING THE NORTHEAST.

79 ECMWF

80 GOES 16 - High Def from the Heavens a. Launch date 11/19/16 b. 1 st major redesign in more then 20 years c. Image of Conus once / 5 minutes d. Higher Resolution e. Lightning Mapper

81 HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS AFFECT THOSE LIVING ALONG THE COAST. INLAND THERE IS NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT. INLAND FLOODING RESPONSIBLE FOR 50% + DEATHS

82 WHEN I WAS IN 9TH GRADE, I TOOK EARTH SCIENCE. YES, THAT WAS 30 YEARS AGO BUT I KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT HURRICANES. THIS STORM IS NO SANDY AND NO IRENE.

83 What did we learn?

84 The strongest winds in a hurricane typically are on the left side of the storm.

85 Hurricane Sandy Track Track maximized storm surge

86 STORM SURGE WHAT IS THE MEANING OF 20 OF SURGE? OFTEN THE GREATEST THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY DOES NOT ALWAYS OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME OR LOCATION AS HAZARDOUS WINDS SEPARATE WARNINGS FOR WIND AND WATER 10% EXCEEDENCE VALUE- INUNDATION

87 Storm Tropical Surge Weather Outlook Storm Surge vs Storm Tide STORM SURGE An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide. STORM TIDE The water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide.

88 Tropical Weather Outlook Storm Surge Factors Affecting Storm Surge Intensity Stronger storm = More storm surge Size (RMW) Bigger storm = More storm surge Forward Speed Slower storm = Storm surge farther inland Width and Slope of Shelf (Bathymetry) Gradual shelf = More storm surge Angle of approach Alters focus of storm surge Central Pressure Pressure driven surge about 5% of total storm surge

89 Storm Surge SLOSH Model Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes A numerical model used to estimate storm surge heights resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes NHC Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products

90 Storm Surge

91 Storm Tropical Surge Weather Outlook Components of Total Water Level Total Water Level Storm surge + Tides + Wave Setup + Freshwater

92 Tropical Weather Outlook Hurricane Ivan What a difference a bay makes.

93 Hurricane Ivan What a difference a bay makes.

94 Hurricane Ivan What a difference a bay makes. Deterministic SLOSH Limited surge threat to Pensacola area

95 Hurricane Ivan What a difference a bay makes.

96 Probabilistic Storm Surge Multiple Tracks and Landfall Locations Hurricane Irene Advisory #22 Forecast Track Alternate P-surge Tracks

97 Probabilistic NHC Tropical Storm Cyclone Surge Advisory Products Web Based. Timing. Availability. Available when a Hurricane Watch/Warning is in effect 48 hours prior to arrival of TS winds Available approx 1 hour after full advisory times ADVISORY TIME P-SURGE AVAILABLE 0600 EDT 1200 EDT 1800 EDT 0000 EDT

98 SYMONS SAYS: What are two items not included in storm surge watch/warning graphics and inundation?

99 SYMONS SAYS: What are two items not included in storm surge watch/warning graphics and inundation? WAVE ACTION FRESH WATER FLOOD

100 STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING 1. Life threatening inundation from a tropical cyclone, sub tropical cyclone, post tropical cyclone and maybe a potential tropical cyclone 2. National Storm Surge Hazard Maps- Interactive/ Risk Eval 3. Hurricane local statements 4. NHC public advisory 5. Issuance of watches and advisories for potential tropical cyclones will include potential cyclone advisory package 6. Tropical Tidbits

101 INUNDATION MAP / WATCH WARNING When available?

102 INUNDATION MAP / WATCH WARNING When available? WHEN A WATCH / WARNING IS POSTED OR ANYTIME WITHIN 48 HOURS OF EXPECTED TROPICAL WINDS ON LAND.

103 Storm Surge Potential Inundation Graphic

104 Storm NHC Surge Tropical Warning Cyclone Advisory Products Graphic

105 SYMONS SAYS: The greatest peacetime evacuation in American history was Hurricane Floyd (category 4) in 1999 Over 3.5 million people, from 4 states, (Fla, GA, N.C. and S.C) evacuated. Trips that normally took 2 hours lasted hours. 2 million Floridians left their homes.

106 FLOODING SOURCES a. The sea b. Fresh water c. Rain runoff, river and stream rise Where do we find rainfall forecasts?

107 FLOODING SOURCES a. The sea b. Fresh water c. Rain runoff, river and stream rise Where do we find rainfall forecasts? LOCAL WFO HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT OR NHC/NWS (WPC).

108 WHO S THE BOSS NHC OR WFO? a. All Hazards are Local Downscaled and refined at the WFO b. HLS Hurricane Local Statement Lead Statement Areas Covered Watch/Warning Recommend Precautionary Action/Timing Surge and Storm Tide Information

109 National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) Work together to provide a clear and consistent tropical message trustworthy message NHC Storm Specific Information Large Scale Storm Intensity, track, size Domain of interest moves with storm Potential Surge Values Wind Values WFO Offices - Downscaled Focus on local storm impacts Domain of interest is local County Warning Area

110 SITUATION OVERVIEW EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION IN SURGE-PRONE AREAS OF COLLIER/MAINLAND NWS Forecast Offices Hurricane Local Statements HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL AM EDT SUN OCT THIS PRODUCT COVERS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA Issued by local NWS office Hurricane (Tropical Storm) Watch/Warning in effect **EXTENSIVE TO DEVASTATING DAMAGE AND LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HURRICANE WILMA MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA** NEW INFORMATION * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR MIAMI-DADE BROWARD PALM BEACH COLLIER GLADES AND MONROE COUNTIES * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI -DADE BROWARD PALM BEACH COLLIER HENDRY GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES * STORM INFORMATION: - ABOUT 405 MI SW OF NAPLES FL N 86.6W - STORM INTENSITY 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS - MOVING NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH Situation overview Watch/warning information Potential impact information Preparedness actions

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112 REMEMBER Biggest single enemy in this high consequence, low probability event is COMPLACENCY!!!