Tsunami Protection Height Prediction

Transcription

1 Tsunami Protection Height Prediction

2 Predicting Tsunamis Level I Tsunami Protection Height 1. Coastal structures protect property or help the evacuation process 2. For frequent but low-level events (several decades to 15 years) Level II Tsunami Evacuation Height 1. Soft measures (evacuation) to protect lives 2. For infrequent higher level events (1, years)

3 Central Government Guidelines to Local Governments Deciding Tsunami Design Height (Tsunami Protection Height), Level I 1. Research Historical Tsunamis 2. Plot the Data 3. Select Level I Tsunami Heights 4. Numerical Simulations to Calculate Tsunami Height 5. Map the Data 6. Decide the Level I Tsunami Protection Height 7. Considerations of Tsunami Barrier Height

4 Japanese Old Documents: Kamakura Oonikki Kamakura Oonikki (a Chronicle from 118 to 1589) In August 15, 1498, there was a big earthquake. A big flood attacked Kamakura city. It ran up close to the first archway of the main shrine. The water came to the temple of the Great Buddha and destroyed the hall. There were more than 2 deaths by drowning. Photo: Kamakura Oonikki Kokushokankokai Manuscript

5 Local Government Analysis Analysis for Kamakura, Yokohama and Tokyo Bay Tokyo Kanagawa Chiba Japan Maps: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Data Japan Hydrographic Association, 216 ZENRIN, Image Landsat

6 Local Government Analysis Analysis for Kamakura, Yokohama and Tokyo Bay 1. Numerical simulation results of past tsunamis: Genroku Kanto Earthquake (173) Keicho Earthquake (165) Meiou Tokai Earthquake (1498) 2. Numerical tsunami simulation results for earthquake scenarios: North Tokyo Bay Earthquake Miura-Boso (Tokyo Bay Mouth) Earthquake 3. Recorded past tsunami heights (analysis of old documents) Kamakura - Old Capital City 4. Bored (drilled) for samples of tsunami sediments

7 Tsunami Height (m) Tsunami Height (m) Tsunami Height Evaluation Kamakura, Zushi, and Hayama Historical Record Meio Earthquake Genroku Earthquake 2 Ansei 1 Earthquake Year Taisho-Kanto Earthquake Source: Kanagawa Prefectural Government, 212 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO 216 ZENRIN Numerical Simulation Tsunamis

8 Calculated Tsunami Flood Area: Kamakura, Meiou Earthquake (1498) Kamakura City Zushi City Flood Depth.1 ~.3 (m).3 ~ 1. (m) 1. ~ 2. (m) 2. ~ 3. (m) 3. ~ 4. (m) 4. ~ 5. (m) 5. ~ 1. (m) 1. ~ 2. (m) ~ 2. (m) Source: Kanagawa Prefectural Government, 212

9 Calculated Tsunami Flood Area: Yokohama, Keicho Earthquake (165) Yokohama Central Station Minatomirai Nishi-Ku Flood Depth.1 ~.3 (m).3 ~ 1. (m) 1. ~ 2. (m) 2. ~ 3. (m) 3. ~ 4. (m) 4. ~ 5. (m) 5. ~ 1. (m) 1. ~ 2. (m) ~ 2. (m) Naka-Ku Minami-Ku Source: Kanagawa Prefectural Government, 212

10 Application to Tohoku

11 Tsunami Propagation over the Ocean Data used for Calculations Topography Data (Japanese Cabinet Office) Grid size A. 135m B. 45m C. 15m Initial Profile of Tsunami Wave (Geospatial Information Authority of Japan) Model of Mansinha and Smylie (1971) Two different faults are given at the same time Solve the Non-linear Long Wave Equation 15m 45m 135m Faults Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 212

12 Source: Sekine and Shibayama, minutes

13 Wave height (m) Wave height (m) Wave height (m) Measurement Comparison Estimates are evaluated against NOWPHAS wave gauge observations. Northern Iwate Prefecture Time (min) Estimation Observation Southern Iwate Prefecture Time (min) Estimation Observation Central Miyagi Prefecture Time (min) Estimation Observation Data: NOWPHAS, 211. Observation Data of Tohoku Tsunami in 211 [ Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 212 / Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image Landsat

14 Wave height (m) Wave height (m) Wave height (m) Simulation Results Oshika Peninsula Natori River min Time (min) 15 1.The first wave was reflected to the north of Oshika Peninsula 2.The reflected wave was refracted and traveled into the Sendai gulf Time (min) Time (min) Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 212 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image Landsat Sendai Gulf

15 Flood Calculation Topography Data (Japanese Cabinet Office) Grid Size: 5m Input Data Inland water level is calculated using the offshore results for shoreline boundary conditions. Front condition of incoming wave is given as Aida (1977) Roughness (Kotani et al., 1988) Area High Density Residential Area Middle Density Residential Area Low Density Residential Area Roughness q orq C x y H gh Forest, Trees.3 C q H :.5 : Flow rate per unit width : Wave Height Paddy field.2 Ocean, River.25 Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 212

16 Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 212 / Map: OpenStreetMap contributors 18 minutes

17 Flood Simulation Results: Flood Area Overestimated Area Blue contour: Observation Underestimated Area Red contour: Simulation There are still some inaccuracies in simulation results Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 212 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image 216 TerraMetrics

18 Inundation height (m) Inundation height (m) Inundation height (m) Inundation height (m) Flood Simulation Results: Flood Area According to the location, simulated inundation heights were overestimated or underestimated POINT12 obs POINT1 obs1 Time (min) Time (min) POINT6 obs POINT5 obs5 Time (min) Time (min) Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 212 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image 216 TerraMetrics

19 Inundation height (m) Inundation height (m) Inundation height (m) Inundation height (m) Flood Simulation Results: Flood Area The second wave had a greater influence on inland areas than on coastal areas POINT12 obs POINT1 obs1 Time (min) Time (min) POINT6 obs POINT5 obs5 Time (min) Time (min) Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 212 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image 216 TerraMetrics

20 Effects of Global Warming

21 Components of a Storm Surge Rapid Development: Yolanda (213), Nemuro (214) Route Change: Nargis (28) Typhoon, Cyclone, Hurricane Wind (1) Wave (Run-up) (2) Wind Driven Surge (3) Pressure Surge (4) Tide 2. Wind Driven Surge with Wave Coast levee or Dike

22 Storm Surge Simulation Model Typhoon Simulation WRF (Skamarock et al., 28) Weather Research and Forecasting TC-Bogus (Hsiao et al., 21) 1. Wind velocity 2. Atmospheric pressure 1&2 1 Storm Surge Simulation Unstructured Grid, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model FVCOM (Chen et al., 23) SWAN (Booji et al., 1999) Third-generation wave model for coastal regions WXtide (Flater, 1998) Result of Storm Surge

23 Future predictions This simulation used the surface temperature from MIROC 5 (Watanabe et al., 28) that was calculated under the RCP8.5 scenario. Surface Temperature (K) Surface temperature at 2:, November 7, 213 (PHT) Source: Oyama, 214 Surface temperature at 2:, November 7, 21 (PHT) (IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 scenario, MIROC5)

24 213 21

25 Surge Height (m) Calculation of storm surge height in 21 Calculations for 213 and 21 and measured storm surge height Leyte Tacloban Samar FVCOM + setup 21 (m) FVCOM + setup (m) Measured (m) FVCOM + wave setup 21 (m) FVCOM + wave setup (m) Measured (m) Source: Oyama, 214

26 Effects of Global Warming Kanagawa

27 Future Projections To forecast 1 years later PAST FORECAST PROJECTION Present days 16 days later? 1 yrs later Past Future Temporal axis

28 Prediction of Future Cyclone Future potential weather field and storm surge for the year 21 IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario A1B Integrated world, the economy and way of life will converge between regions Increased socio-cultural interactions Balanced emphasis on all energy sources Future Scenario A1B Atmospheric CO2 concentration will reach 72 ppm in the year 21 Population growth, land use change are low GDP growth and energy use is very high Medium resource availability New and efficient technologies are rapidly introduced Calculation condition for the year 21 Sea surface temperature will increase, e.g. around the Bay of Bengal by +2.2ºC Sea level will rise by.35m Source: IPCC AR4 Summary for Policy makers, 27

29 Forecast: 1 years later IPCC A1B In Tokyo Bay Sea Surface Temperature (SST) A1B Typhoon Fitow (27) in 21 Sea Level Rise (SRL (cm)) A1B [+2] SST ( / 1y) Sep 6 : Sep 7 18: Sea Level (cm / 1y) Maps and Source: Japan Meteorological Agency website, 213 [

30 Results: Comparison between 27 and a. c. b. d. g e. f. SLR: Sea Level Rise Surge: Wind driven surge and Pressure surge Source: Ohira et al., 212 h. a. Shibaura b. Haneda c. Edogawa d. Yokohama e. Funabashi f. Chiba g. Futtsu h. Tateyama

31 Conclusions for Future Calculation of Storm Surges In the future, due to climate change, we can expect: WARMER Increase of surface temperature HIGHER Higher waves caused by typhoons STRONGER Stronger typhoon wind speed

32 Effects of the Rise in Sea Level and the Increase in Typhoon Intensity on Coastal Structures in Tokyo Bay Tokyo Bay 8 Sagami Bay 1 9 Small Area (Grid size=1km) Connecting Boundary Large Area (Grid size=3km) Source: Hoshino et al., 216 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Data Japan Hydrographic Association, Image Landsat

33 Outline of Effects Global warming Rise in seawater temperature Change in typhoon behavior Change in storm surge height What will happen to Tokyo Bay?

34 Global Ocean and Land Temperature Global Land Temperature Global Ocean Temperature Data: NASA, 21

35 Occurrence probability (%) Effect of Global Warming: Previous Study Typhoon s radius of maximum sustained wind based on Yasuda et al., hpa 9 hpa 91 hpa 92 hpa 93 hpa 94 hpa Central pressure shift under global warming based on Knutson and Tuleya, Present 現在の大気条件 Climate Condition Future Climate Condition (high CO2 concentration) CO2 増加後の大気条件 Central Pressure (hpa)

36 Target Area Sagami Bay Tokyo Bay 9 8 Small Area (Grid size=1km) The simulation uses a nesting approach No Place Prefecture 1 Yokosuka 2 Yokohama Kanagawa 3 Kawasaki 4 Shinagawa 5 Shibaura Tokyo Connecting Boundary Large Area (Grid size=3km) 6 Toyosu 7 Funabashi 8 Sodegaura 9 Futtsu Chiba Source: (Google Hoshino et al., 216 Map: ) Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Data Japan Hydrographic Association, Image Landsat

37 Target Typhoon Taisho 6th year (1917) typhoon 3 th September - 1 st October Typhoon Route: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image Landsat

38 Taisho 6 th Year (1917) Typhoon Damage Flooded and hard-hit areas by the Taisho typhoon Shinjuku Muko-jima Kami-hirai Dead or Missing 1,324 Wounded 2,22 Completely destroyed houses Half destroyed houses Houses w ashed away Flooded houses 36,459 21,274 2,442 32,917 Naka-gawa Sumida River Edo River Flooded area 215km² (in Tokyo) Flooded area Hard-hit area Observed storm surge at Komatsugawa Haneda Tama River Source: Miyazaki, 23

39 Taisho 6 th Year (1917) Typhoon Typhoon Course The lowest pressure of the typhoon was reported to be hpa according to Miyazaki (23) Recorded course Collinear approximation Source: Hoshino et al., 216 / Data: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2 Maps (left and center): Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image Landsat

40 Change in Typhoon: Central Pressure Central Pressure (Yasuda et al., 21) Using the Stochastic Typhoon Model (STM) Data of 1468 observed typhoons from 1951 to 25

41 Probability Probability Change in Typhoon: Cumulative Distribution 4.E-2 Central pressure 3.E-2 2.E-2 1.E-2 Future Present.E Pressure (hpa) 1 Cumulative distribution function Future Present Pressure (hpa) Based on: Yasuda et al., 21

42 Change in Typhoon: Calculations for Tokyo Bay Conversion Table Present Future Taisho Typhoon Present Future Source: Hoshino et al., 216

43 Change in Typhoon: Radius of Maximum Wind Speed Yasuda et al., (21) 895 hpa 9 hpa 91 hpa 92 hpa 94 hpa 93 hpa Based on: Yasuda et al., 21

44 Change in Typhoon: Example If the central pressure is less than 895 (hpa), the radius of typhoon will be 3 (km) with 11 (%) probability. 895 hpa Central pressure (hpa) ~895 Radius (km) Probability Source: Hoshino et al., 216

45 Typhoon and Sea Level Rise Scenario Historical Central Pressure (hpa) Climate-Change Modified Central Pressure (hpa) Radius of Maximum Wind Speed Sea Level Rise Probability distribution function according to Yasuda et al., 21 1 computations for each scenario below : cm / : 28 cm / : 59 cm / :19 cm scenario B1 of the IPCC scenario A1FI of the IPCC Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 29 Source: Hoshino et al., 216

46 Probability(%) Calculation Example (SLR Scenario: cm) Probability (%) Radius(km) Storm surge (m) Storm surge (m) Probability(%) Storm surge(m) Source: Hoshino et al., 216

47 Probability Frequency Result Example Scenario Ⅰ Scenario Ⅱ 5% Scenario Ⅲ Breakwater A 95% Storm surge(m) Storm surge B7% A: the probability a storm surge will reach at least 5cm below the top of the flood defense B: the probability a storm surge will overflow the flood defense B A Overflow 5c m Flood defense Tide level Source: Hoshino et al., 216 Bottom of the sea

48 Target Area Tokyo Bay 8 No Place Prefecture 1 Yokosuka 2 Yokohama Kanagawa Sagami Bay Kawasaki 4 Shinagawa Connecting Boundary Small Area (Grid size=1km) Large Area (Grid size=3km) 5 Shibaura 6 Toyosu 7 Funabashi 8 Sodegaura 9 Futtsu Tokyo Chiba Source: (Google Hoshino et al., 216 Map: ) Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Data Japan Hydrographic Association, Image Landsat

49 Sea Level Rise cm Taisho 6th Consider global warming Sea level rise cm Overflow ~ -5 cm < -5 cm.4 1. Yokosuka 2. Yokohama 3. Kawasaki.8.8 KANAGAWA TOKYO Shinagawa 5. Shibaura 6. Toyosu CHIBA Source: Hoshino et al., Funabashi 9. Sodegaura Futtsu

50 Sea Level Rise 28cm Taisho 6th Consider global warming Sea level rise 28cm Overflow ~ -5 cm < -5 cm.4 1. Yokosuka 2. Yokohama 3. Kawasaki.8.8 KANAGAWA TOKYO CHIBA Shinagawa 5. Shibaura 6. Toyosu Funabashi 9. Sodegaura Futtsu Source: Hoshino et al., 216

51 Sea Level Rise 59cm Taisho 6th Consider global warming Sea level rise 59cm Overflow ~ -5 cm < -5 cm.4 1. Yokosuka 2. Yokohama 3. Kawasaki KANAGAWA TOKYO CHIBA Source: Hoshino et al., Shinagawa 5. Shibaura 6. Toyosu Funabashi 9. Sodegaura Futtsu

52 Sea Level Rise 19cm Taisho 6th Consider global warming Sea level rise 19cm Overflow ~ -5 cm < -5 cm.4 1. Yokosuka 2. Yokohama 3. Kawasaki KANAGAWA TOKYO CHIBA Source: Hoshino et al., Shinagawa 5. Shibaura 6. Toyosu Funabashi 9. Sodegaura Futtsu

53 Storm Surge Height Probability Probability (%) that storm surge height will be higher than A or B defenses Sea level rise cm 28cm 59cm 19cm Level of Storm Surge Height A ( ~ -5cm) B (overflow) A ( ~ -5cm) B (overflow) A ( ~ -5cm) B (overflow) A ( ~ -5cm) B (overflow) 1. Yokosuka Yokohama Kawasaki Shinagawa Shibaura Toyosu Funabashi Sodagaura Futtsu Source: Hoshino et al., 216

54 Population Density Living Population per 1km square 1~ 45~1 12~45 3~12 2~3 Source: Hoshino et al., 216

55 Population Density: Elevation Height The elevation of storm surge height considering 59(cm) sea level rise 2.5m The elevation of storm surge height considering 19(cm) sea level rise 2.2m B. Tokyo B 2.7m 1.4m A C 1.8m 3.1m A. Kanagawa C. Chiba Source: Hoshino et al., 216

56 Conclusion Wave Height <HIGH> Shibaura and Toyosu in Tokyo Funabashi in Chiba <LOW> All points in Kanagawa Sodegaura and Futtsu in Chiba Overflow Risk <HIGH> All points in Kanagawa Futtsu in Chiba <LOW> All points in Tokyo Funabashi in Chiba It is necessary to increase flood defense heights by.5m or more at these locations. Population Density <HIGH> All points in Tokyo and Kanagawa <LOW> All points in Chiba Elevation <HIGH> All points in Kanagawa and Chiba <LOW> All points in Tokyo