Population Research Center (PRC) Oregon Population Forecast Program

Transcription

1 Population Research Center (PRC) Oregon Population Forecast Program 2013 Oregon League of Cities Conference Risa S. Proehl Jason R. Jurjevich, Ph.D. Population Research Center (PRC)

2 Population Research Center (PRC) Research Areas: Oregon State Data Center (SDC) Demographic Advisory Services Applied Demography Instruction Oregon Population Estimates Program Oregon Population Forecast Program [Today s Focus]

3 Oregon Population Estimates Program Population Estimates Refers to a point in time estimate of population in the present or in the past Usual estimate date of July 1 Distribution of state revenue to communities Primary data collection instrument: Annual Estimates Survey Now electronic!

4 Population Forecasts Population Forecasts An estimation of future population based on historic and current trends, and assumptions about likely future events Oregon law requires counties to prepare and update coordinated population forecasts 20-year horizon Serve as the basis for growth management UGB expansions Planning-related issues (transportation planning, school facility plans, and capital improvement)

5 Population Forecast Workgroup June 2011 Oregon stakeholders meet to identify and address concerns specific to population forecasting and Oregon land-use laws Some identified issues: Cost Different demographic methods City and county coordination Outdated population forecasts Controversial and subject to litigation

6 Outlining a New Way Forward for Population Forecasting Presentation objectives: 1. What is the Oregon Population Forecast Program? 2. What do the changes in population forecasting mean for my city? 3. What are the benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program? 4. In the coming months, what can I expect (in terms of process) and how can I prepare my city to be ready for these changes?

7 Oregon Population Forecast Program 1. Charges PSU with city-county coordinated population forecasting (reassigned from counties) 2. PSU provides county-level forecasts annually, and; 3. Coordinated city-county forecasts every four years 4. Process is dependent on local public input and public participation

8 Oregon Population Forecast Program: 4-Year Schedule Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 County- Level Forecasts* Update County- Level Forecasts 1st Set of Coordinated City- County Forecasts Update County- Level Forecasts 2nd Set of Coordinated City- County Forecasts Update County- Level Forecasts 3rd Set of Coordinated City- County Forecasts *Includes 5-year age groups by sex

9 Benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program Updated, timely forecasts 50-year time horizon for other planning requirements Consistent forecast methodology Systematic incorporation of local and public input Reduction of challenges and lawsuits Adoption of PSU forecast is not a land-use decision and therefore, not appealable to LUBA

10 Benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program Improved efficiency Allows us to leverage data from existing Population Estimates program Fully funded by state resources Cost savings to cities and counties

11 Population Forecasting Models Cohort-Component model Disaggregates population into 5-year age cohorts and explicitly assumes: Likelihood of demographic events (fertility, mortality, and migration) is inextricably linked to a persons gender and age Housing Unit model Population forecasts driven by total housing units, occupancy rate, and persons per household Includes group quarters populations

12 Types of Data Collected Primary data 1. Public officials, planners, and other city personnel 2. Housing developer survey Secondary data U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 decennial Censuses of Population and Housing Enumerated population by age and sex, and housing American Community Survey (ACS) Migration, income, poverty, and educational attainment Oregon Employment Department, Workforce and Economic Research Historical and current employment data, and projections General economic trends Likely future employers

13 Types of Data Collected Secondary data continued Oregon Department of Transportation Transportation infrastructure Future plans Oregon Center for Health Statistics Birth and death data Population Research Center (PRC) Certified annual population estimates Oregon Department of Education K-12 school enrollment data City, Regional, and County Planning departments Qualitative data not obtained in surveys

14 Local and Public Input Two meetings 1 st meeting (Month 2) Explain forecasting methodology and process Gather additional data and local input Provide background of locally-specific demographic trends 2 nd meeting (Month 8) Provide officials with proposed forecast results Seek input for potential modifications Gather additional data and local input not previously received

15 Proposed Annual Coordinated Forecast Approach Month 1 Update county- level forecasts Month 2 Hold 1st public meedng Month 3 Distribute data collecdon surveys Months 4-6 Build models Accept addidonal data Month 7 Release Preliminary Forecasts Month 8 Hold 2nd public meedng Month 9 Issue Proposed PopulaDon Forecast Begin Review period Month 11 Issue Final PopulaDon Forecast Challenge process Commences with the release of the proposed population forecast 45 day review period during which a city can challenge the forecast by providing additional information to support proposed change

16 Deliverables Annual county-level forecasts [Years 1-4] 50 year horizon 5-year age cohorts by sex Coordinated county and city-level (UGB) forecasts [Years 2-4] Report containing: Includes information for all cities and counties Summary of demographic trends, data gathered from surveys, information collected from city and county officials, as well as the public, and assumptions about future growth Short technical document specific to forecast methods employed

17 Forecast Program Timeline 1. Currently developing an advisory committee to develop program rules Timeline: October - November Program planning, database development, and county forecast logistics Timeline: October - December Develop county-level population forecasts Timeline: December 2013 May Develop 1 st set of city-county coordinated forecasts Timeline: July 2014 June 2015

18 Oregon Population Forecast Program Team Xiaomin Ruan, Coordinator Kevin Rancik, GIS Analyst Risa Proehl Jason Jurjevich

19 PRC Website:

20 Population Research Center (PRC) Oregon Population Forecast Program 2013 Oregon League of Cities Conference Jason R. Jurjevich, Ph.D. Risa S. Proehl Population Research Center (PRC)