Date: March 31, 2014 PATE; fyril 2.3,2 >H

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1 aj BRAMPTON fifs Rower City XH-l-f r.t "»* City Council The Corporation of the City of Brampton SRAMPTON CITY COUNCIL Date: March 31, 2014 PATE; fyril 2.3,2 >H File: POO GR VisWhtoJed ^t'th-meeh'^a Subject: Contact: City of Brampton and Region of Peel Population and Employment Forecast Updates Brian Lakeman, Growth Management Policy Planner, Planning and Building Division ( ) Overview: Hemson Consulting Ltd. has provided the City with revised preliminary population and employment forecasts. The revised preliminary forecasts project a Brampton population of 837,200 persons in 2031 and 890,100 in The revised preliminary forecasts call for 292,820 jobs in 2031 and 321,340 in Staff recommends that the revised preliminary forecasts be used for completion of the City's Development Charges By-law Update. Staff from the Region of Peel and the three area municipalities worked on the distribution of the population and employment allocated to Peel Region in Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan amongst the area municipalities. The sums of the preliminary area municipal population and employment forecasts did not match the forecasts allocated to Peel in Amendment 2, so adjustments to the preliminary area municipal forecasts were required. The forecasts arising from the Region of Peel's forecast distribution exercise assign Brampton a population of 833,000 persons in 2031 and 919,000 in Brampton is assigned 296,000 jobs in 2031 and 329,000 in This report recommends endorsement of the 2031 forecasts for Brampton for use in Regional Official Plan Amendment (ROPA 27). This report does not recommend the use of the 2041 population and employment forecasts assigned to Brampton in ROPA 27 unless it is determined that the forecasts do not substantially impact the City's activity rate. Staff will, as part of the review of the City's employment policies, as directed by Council resolution C , review the impact of the assigned forecasts on the City's activity rate. Regional staff intends to bring the draft ROPA 27 to Regional Council on April 24, 2014, seeking direction to take the ROPA to open houses and public meetings in May and June. It is anticipated that Regional Council will consider 1

XM-l-2 the final ROPA on July 3, 2014. City Staff will report back to Council with information on the growth management component of ROPA 27 in advance of its formal consideration by Regional Council.

2 XM-l-2 the final ROPA on July 3, City Staff will report back to Council with information on the growth management component of ROPA 27 in advance of its formal consideration by Regional Council. Recommendations: 1. That the report from Brian Lakeman, Growth Management Policy Planner, Planning and Infrastructure Services Department, dated March 31, 2014, to the City Council meeting of April 23, 2014, re: City of Brampton and Region of Peel Population and Employment Forecast Updates, be received; 2. That the following preliminary population and employment forecasts for the City of Brampton be used In completing the City's Development Charges By-law Update: Population of 837,200 persons in 2031 and 890,100 in Employment of 292,800 jobs in 2031 and 321,340 in 2041; 3. That, whereas the Region of Peel's forecasts must comply with the population and employment allocated to Peel Region in Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, the following forecasts for Brampton for 2031 be endorsed for use as input to draft Regional Official Plan Amendment 27: Population of 833,200 persons and employment of 296,000 jobs in 2031; 4. That the Region be advised that Brampton does not support the assignment of a population of 919,000 persons and employment of 329,000 jobs in 2041 to the City, as developed to comply with the forecasts allocated to Peel Region in Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, unless the City determines that the 2041 population and employment assigned to Brampton do not substantially impact the City's activity rate; 5. That, pursuant to Recommendation 4, as part of the review of the City's employment policies, as directed by Council resolution C (below), staff review the impact of the assigned forecasts on the City's activity rate. Council Resolution C (Item PDD , Recommendation 8): "That Planning and Economic Development staff be directed to conduct a detailed review of the City's employment policies to identify strategies dealing with the policies, zones and implementation mechanisms to best further the City's long term vision for viable, prosperous employment lands of quality design"; 6. That City staff report back to Council in advance of formal consideration by Regional Council of the final Regional Official Plan Amendment 27; and, 7. That this report and Council resolution be forwarded to the Region of Peel and to the City of Mississauga and the Town of Caledon for information.

IH-l-3 Background: Planning for continued growth in Brampton requires an understanding of both past development activity and likely future development activity.

3 IH-l-3 Background: Planning for continued growth in Brampton requires an understanding of both past development activity and likely future development activity. Population and employment forecasts provide the City with information on which to base decisions about how, where, and when Brampton will grow. As outlined in a report brought to Council on October 21, 2013, City staff is working with Hemson Consulting Ltd. on the preparation of population and employment forecasts for Brampton to At that meeting, Council endorsed the use of preliminary forecasts for use in the City's Development Charges By-law Update and the Transportation Master Plan Update. Council also endorsed the use of the City's preliminary forecasts by the Region of Peel in its preparation of a Regional Official Plan Amendment (ROPA) with forecasts that conform to Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan). Current Situation: This section provides updates on two population and employment forecasting exercises: (1) the preparation of forecasts for Brampton; and (2) the distribution of the population and employment allocated to Peel Region in Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan to the area municipalities (which used Brampton's preliminary forecasts as input). City of Brampton Preliminary Forecast Revisions Hemson Consulting Ltd. provided the City with revised preliminary forecasts in February The revisions reflect reconciliation with detailed data from the 2011 Census. These technical revisions resulted in changes to the 2011 base population and employment numbers and how they were distributed across Brampton, which in turn impacted the 2031 and 2041 forecasts. The revised preliminary forecasts (February 2014) indicate that Brampton's population will be 837,200 persons in 2031 and 890,100 in The revised preliminary forecasts call for 292,820 jobs in 2031 and 321,340 in (See Appendix 1 for a comparison of the October 2013 and February 2014 preliminary forecasts.) Given the timing for the completion of the Development Charges By-law Update, staff recommends that the revised preliminary forecasts (February 2014) be used for this purpose. The travel demand modeling work for the Transportation Master Plan Update will continue to use the October 2013 preliminary forecasts. The timing of this project does not permit the use of the revised preliminary forecasts and staff and Hemson Consulting Ltd. see little impact arising from the continued use of the October 2013 preliminary forecasts for this purpose. The revised preliminary 2031 population and employment forecasts, and the split of the forecast population between the built-up and greenfield areas, continues to result in achievement of the density and intensification targets established for Brampton in the City's Official Plan. The combination of Brampton's revised preliminary 2031 and 2041

14-1-4 population and employment forecasts and the preliminary forecasts of the other area municipalities, do not, however, sum to the population and employment allocated to Peel Region in Amendment

4 population and employment forecasts and the preliminary forecasts of the other area municipalities, do not, however, sum to the population and employment allocated to Peel Region in Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan (see below). Region of Peel Forecast Distribution Exercise Regional and area municipal staff have been working to reconcile area municipal forecasts with the population and employment allocated to Peel Region in Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan. The City's revised preliminary forecasts (February 2014) were provided to the Region of Peel for use in the forecast distribution exercise, replacing the preliminary forecasts sent to Peel in October 2013 for this purpose. City of Mississauga Council endorsed the use of the staff-recommended Steady Growth forecasts prepared for that city for the purpose of input into the Region of Peel's forecast distribution exercise on November 1, (Hemson Consulting Ltd. prepared three scenarios for Mississauga - Conservative Growth, Steady Growth and Progressive Growth.) At their March 18, 2014 meeting, Town of Caledon Council endorsed staff-recommended population and employment forecasts for use in the Peel exercise. City of Brampton staff had Hemson Consulting Ltd. create two new forecast scenarios for the City for use in the forecast distribution exercise (Steady Growth and Progressive Growth). These new scenarios reflect the same intensification rates used in the City of Mississauga's forecasts and allowed the distribution exercise to use a methodology based on common assumptions as to intensification in Peel. (See Appendix 2 for information on the additional forecasting scenarios.) The sum of the preliminary area municipal population forecasts for 2031 exceeded the population allocated to Peel Region in Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan for that year. The sum of the preliminary area municipal employment forecasts for 2031 and of both the preliminary population and employment forecasts for 2041 fell short of the forecasts allocated to Peel Region. Regional and area municipal staff agreed that, given the reliance on the forecasts for growth management, capital program development and other purposes, there should be no unallocated population or employment in either 2031 or That decision and consideration of the projected pace and location of growth in Peel region (i.e., intensification within the built boundary and growth in the designated greenfield areas) and the role of each of the area municipalities in achieving the projected regional growth informed the adjustments made to the preliminary area municipal forecasts. (See Appendix 3 for information on the area municipal and the Amendment 2 forecasts.) The Region of Peel forecast distribution exercise assigned Brampton a population of 833,000 persons in 2031 and 919,000 in Brampton was assigned 296,000 jobs in 2031 and 329,000 in 2041 (see Appendix 3). Staff recommends endorsement of the 2031 forecasts for Brampton for use in the draft ROPA 27. It is further recommended, however, that the Region be advised that Brampton does not support the use of the 2041 forecasts assigned to Brampton in draft ROPA 27, unless the City determines that the 2041 population and employment assigned to Brampton do not substantially impact the City's activity rate.

XH-I-S Growth management is one of five focus areas in ROPA 27. The other focus areas are housing, age-friendly planning, health and the built environment, and housekeeping modifications.

5 XH-I-S Growth management is one of five focus areas in ROPA 27. The other focus areas are housing, age-friendly planning, health and the built environment, and housekeeping modifications. The forecasts assigned through the forecast distribution exercise will enable higher rates of intensification in Brampton and Mississauga and reduce the need for significant boundary expansions while accommodating Caledon's projected growth. In addition, the 2031 population and employment forecasts, and the split of the forecast population between built-up and greenfield areas, results in achievement of the density and intensification targets established for Peel Region and the area municipalities in the Regional and area municipal Official Plans. For Brampton, the assigned forecasts result in a minor decrease in forecast population in 2031 as compared to the City's revised preliminary forecast, with the decrease coming from deferring a number of dwelling units inside the built boundary from prior to 2031 until after that year. This will not impact the City's plans to focus intensification in the Urban Growth Centre, along the Queen Street Corridor, or along the Hurontario- Main Street Corridor (which will support the City's ongoing higher order transit initiatives). The assigned forecasts result in increases in forecast employment in 2031 and increases in both forecast population and employment in 2041 for Brampton as compared to the City's revised preliminary forecasts. The 2031 and 2041 employment increases will require careful consideration of how and where this additional employment can be accommodated and what the impact on the City's activity rate (the proportion of jobs to population) will be. Staff proposes that a policy approach aimed at increasing employment densities and encouraging the redevelopment of existing employment lands be adopted. In addition, staff will undertake a review of the City's employment lands and their capacity to attract higher density employment uses, including Major Office, as part of the study directed by Council resolution C This review will include consideration of the impact of the assigned forecasts on the City's activity rate. Regional staff intends to bring the draft ROPA 27 to Regional Council on April 24, At that meeting, Regional staff will seek direction to take the draft ROPA to open houses and public meetings in May and June. It is anticipated that Regional Council will consider the final ROPA on July 3, These dates are in general accordance with the timelines agreed to in April 2013 by the Regional and area municipal CAOs. City Staff will report back to Council with information on ROPA 27 in advance of its formal consideration by Regional Council. Once adopted by Regional Council, the ROPA will be sent to the Province for approval. Once the Province has approved ROPA 27, the City's Official Plan will be need to be amended to formally adopt the ROPA's new forecasts for Brampton. Regional and area municipal staff expect to revisit the forecasts for 2041 as part of the upcoming (2016) review of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe and/or following the next census of Canada. 5

6 IH-I-& Corporate Implications: City Planning and Finance staff have agreed to use the revised preliminary forecasts to complete the City's Development Charge By-law Update. Strategic Plan: This report achieves the Growth Management and Economic Development Strategic Plan priorities by providing information that supports the City's efforts to manage the benefits of growth to build a preeminent city with vibrant and connected communities and to encourage economic growth and the provision of an appropriate mix and supply of employment lands. Conclusion: Progress toward arriving at final population and employment forecasts for the City of Brampton continues. Staff recommends the use of the revised preliminary forecasts for Brampton in completing the City's Development Charges By-law Update. Staff further recommends endorsement of the 2031 forecasts assigned to Brampton through the Region's forecast distribution exercise for use in draft ROPA 27. Brampton does not support the assigned 2041 forecasts for Brampton, unless the City determines that the 2041 population and employment assigned to Brampton do not substantially impact the City's activity rate. Staff will report back to Council with information on ROPA 27 in advance of its formal consideration by Regional Council. X- Brian Lakeman, MCIP, RPP Growth Management Policy Planner Planning and Building Division Planning and Infrastructure Services Department HdnrlkZbog^nflviaiP, RPP Director.(Acting)/Planning Policy and Growth Management Planning and Building Division Planning and Infrastructure Services Department CPISO c*6 : Appendices: I /^ /y Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Appendix 3 City of Brampton Preliminary Forecast Revisions City of Brampton Additional Forecast Scenarios Growth Plan Amendment 2 and Area Municipal Forecasts Report authored by: Brian Lakeman, Growth Management Policy Planner

7 rm-i-7 Appendix 1: City of Brampton Preliminary Forecast Revisions October 2013 Preliminary Forecasts Total Population (including undercount) 842, ,500 Total Employment 290, ,430 February 2014 Preliminary Forecasts Total Population (including undercount) 837, ,100 Total Employment 292, ,340

8 xm-i-e Appendix 2: City of Brampton Additional Forecast Scenarios Regional Intensification Rate February Steady Progressive 2014 Growth Growth Preliminary Forecasts % 40.0% 40.0% % 45.0% 47.5% % 50.0% ' 55.0% % 55.0% 60.0% % 55.0% 65.0% Population and Employment bv Scenario February 2014 Preliminary Forecasts Steady Growth Progressive Growth , , , , , , , , , , , ,390

9 Appendix 3: Growth Plan Amendment 2 and Area Municipal Forecasts Growth Plan Amendment 2 and Area Municipal Forecasts Population 2031 Employment Brampton (Steady Growth Scenario) 841, ,000 Caledon (Council-Endorsed Forecasts) ,000 Mississauga (Steady Growth Scenario) ,000 Area Municipal Totals "1,783,000' 868,000 Amendment 2 Forecasts for Peel 1, ,000 Difference -13,000 12, , , , , ,928, ^000 1,970, ,000 42,000 23,000 Note: Area municipal forecasts are rounded to the nearest thousand Forecasts Assigned to the Area Municipalities 2<D31 Brampton 833, ,000 Caledon 113,000 49,000 Mississauga 824, ,000 Area Municipal Totals 1,770, ;000 Amendment 2 Forecasts for Peel 1,770, ,000 Difference , , ,000 78, , ,000 1,970, ,970, , Note: Area municipal forecasts are rounded to the nearest thousand

A Method for Mapping Settlement Area Boundaries in the Greater Golden Horseshoe

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