Hurricane Sandy. Background Information and (first) Disaster Assessment Report. ( as of) Nov, 2 nd 2012

Transcription

1 Background Information and (first) Disaster Assessment Report ( as of) Nov, 2 nd 2012 Wasserbau und Küsteningenieurwesen BSc Bau- und Umweltingenieurwesen - WS2012/13 Prof. Dr. T. Schlurmann Franzius-Institute für Wasserbau und Küsteningenieurwesen, Leibniz Universität Hannover Vorsitzender des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats des Deutschen Komitees Katastrophenvorsorge e.v. (DKKV)

2 - Development and hurricane track ("Frankenstorm") posttropical cyclone (Cat 1) that severely affected the Carribean, Mid- Atlantic and NE United States in late Oct (Oct. 22 nd 31 th ) Landfall 8 km southwest of Atlantic City, NJ, at about 8 pm on Oct 29. Largest Atlantic Hurricane on record (with strong winds in between km/h of D = 1800km) Storm surge height ht approx. 4.5m above msl Affected 24 states (Florida to New England) and as far as W-Virginia NOAA, 2012 Slide 2

3 Losses and Damages (1) Cyclone brought destructive storm surge to NYC on Oct. 29th, flooding numerous streets, tunnels and subway lines and cutting off electricity in many parts of the city and its suburbs. Extensive damage occurred in New Jersey, especially in the communities along the Jersey Shores. Up-to-date 88 fatalities Some tens of millions affected, some tens of thousands lost homes and livelihoods Slide 3

4 Losses and Damages (2) First estimates run into more than 55 bn. US$ in the US only, yet the scope and sum of the direct and indirect damages is still unknown. For correlation: Irene (2011): 55bn US$, Katrina (2005): 125bn US$, Tohoku-Quake-Tsunami (2011): 210bn US$ Approx. 12,000 flights canceled Three airports serving NYC were shut down for two days. Worst damage in the NY subway's s 108-yearhistory. Over 4.8 million people remained without power on Nov. 1 st in 15 states Slide 4

5 Early warning, preparedness and perception (1) NOAA, FEMA and other state authorities announced early warning dossiers and set evacuations guidelines well in advance Broadest media coverage since 9/11: More than 3,5 million tweets on Twitter (hashtag #Sandy), Instagram counted 10 pictures per second (hashtag #sandy) Most people did react accordingly gyand prepared p for the worst mostly by means of coordinated evacuation! Slide 5

6 Early warning, preparedness and perception (2) Yet, others perceived disaster as a sort of entertainment and funny natural event! Slide 6

7 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (1) Crisis management in regard of evacuation, disaster aftermath and recovery outstandingly organized! FEMA - Fed. Emergency Management Agency, 2012 Though prolonged power cuts in mayor urban agglomerations FEMA, 2012 FEMA, 2012 Slide 7

8 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (2) Crisis management in regard of evacuation, disaster aftermath and recovery outstandingly organized! Though prolonged power cuts in mayor urban agglomerations New Crisis Response maps feature preparedness information for Sunday 10/28/ :47:00 PM Slide 8

9 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (3) New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC, >2008) under guidance and patronage of Mayor Michael Bloomberg in full effect? NYC and State of New York as global role model on Climate Change Adaptation concepts, communications and actions: The structure of climate change adaptation in New York City. [Rosenzweig et al., 2010] Slide 9

10 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (4) New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC, >2008) under guidance and patronage of Mayor Michael Bloomberg in full effect? Sources of information: Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response, New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), Vol. 1196,2010 Ready New York preparedness for emergencies in New York City, NYC Office of Emerg. Mngt, 2009 Response to Climate Change in New York State (ClimAID), New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, 2011 Climate Risk Information New York City Panel on Climate Change, 2009 Responding to Climate Change in New York State: Technical Report, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Dec pp Rosenzweig, C., W. Solecki, S.A. Hammer, and S. Mehrotra, 2010: Cities lead the way in climate-change action. Nature, 467, NYC and State of New York as global role model on Climate Change Adaptation concepts, communication and actions: Slide 10

11 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (5) New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC, >2008) under guidance and patronage of Mayor Michael Bloomberg in full effect? (Credit: NPCC, 2010) Slide 11

12 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (6) New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC, >2008) under guidance and patronage of Mayor Michael Bloomberg in full effect? taken from Horton et al., 2009 Quantitative Changes in Extreme Events Note: Extreme events are characterized by higher uncertainty than mean annual changes. The central range (middle 67% of values from model-based probabilities) across the GCMs and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios is shown. See Appendix B for the full range of values. Slide 12

13 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (7) New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC, >2008) under guidance and patronage of Mayor Michael Bloomberg in full effect? taken from Horton et al., 2009 Slide 13

14 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (8) New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC, >2008) under guidance and patronage of Mayor Michael Bloomberg in full effect? Sector-specific impacts [taken from Horton et al., 2009, see pp ] 59] clearly outline likely implications for NYC on: Communication Infrastructure Energy Infrastructure Transportation infrastructure Waste & Water Infrastructure Slide 14

15 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (9) New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC, >2008) under guidance and patronage of Mayor Michael Bloomberg in full effect? Sept., 12th 2012 Sea walls, marshes and trees in Brooklyn Bridge Park, part of efforts by New York City agencies to cope with rising seas City officials are pursuing a so-called resilience strategy that calls for strengthening the city s ability to weather the effects of serious flooding and recover from it. It s a million small changes that need to happen said Adam Freed, until August the deputy director of NCY s Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability. Everything y g you do has to be a calculation of the risks and benefits and costs you face. ( ) in any case, Mr. Freed said, you can t make a climate-proof city. Slide 15

16 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (10) Triggered and cascading effects due to storm and subsequent storm surges have evidently not been anticipated adequately?! Slide 16

17 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (11) Triggered and cascading effects due to storm and subsequent storm surges have evidently not been anticipated adequately?! Slide 17

18 Aftermaths, recovery and critical voices (12) Triggered and cascading effects due to storm and subsequent storm surges have evidently not been anticipated adequately?! Slide 18

19 to be continued... Nov., 6 th 2012 AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, 2012 Prof. Dr. T. Schlurmann Franzius-Institute für Wasserbau und Küsteningenieurwesen, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Vorsitzender des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats des Deutschen Komitees Katastrophenvorsorge e.v. (DKKV), Nov, 2 nd, 2012