Coastal forecasting and training in the Netherlands
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1 Coastal forecasting and training in the Netherlands Annette Zijderveld, Firmijn Zijl, Martin Verlaan, Saskia Vermeer, Micheline Hounjet, Casper Hartefeld
2 Outline Coastal forecasting Operational forecasters NL Models and model developements FEWS North Sea Challenges and questions Training of forecasters Basis elements Serious gaming Serious Game LCO Plans 2010
3 Coastal forecasting
4 Operational storm surge forecast center NL KNMI Hydro-Meteo Center (HMC) Storm surge warning department Operational team of the Maeslant barrier RWS SVSD KNMI HMCN HMCZ Maeslant barrier
5 Operational services RWS Hydro-Meteo Centrum Noordzee (HMCN) 7x24 4x a day (minimum), tide driven Hydro-meteo Centrum Zeeland (HMCZ) 7x16 4x a day (minimum), at regular times Stormsurge warning department (SVSD) Only during storm situations Warnings 12 hours ahead
6 Hydro Meteo center North Sea Measurements and forecasts of water levels, currents and waves.. North Sea / Wadden Sea / Eems-Dollard
7 Models
8 New North Sea model: DCSM v6 New model DCSM v6 (based on WAQUA) Grid size: 1.5 by 1.0 (~2 km), 1120 x 1260 cells New bathymetry (based on NOOS gridded data set) Tide Generating Forces (TGF) included Calculation time: 1 hour computation time for 2 day forecast on linux cluster (4 nodes) Red line: DCSM v5 model boundary
9 DCSM v6 model development Calibration computations cover the full year of 2007, tidal analysis for 94 constituents Meteorological forcing added, inverse barometer correction included Station locations slightly improved Some major difficulties with correct bathymetry data (not yet solved completely) Sensitivity analysis of Charnock parameter: Best results with value of (previously 0.032) Improvement in tide and surge representation compared to DCSM v5
10 Some improvements Station RMSE (cm) Station RMSE (cm) BROUWHVSGT (13.0) OOSTSDE (13.5) BROUWHVSGT (13.8) OOSTSDE (15.9) CADZD 12.8 (17.6) PETTZD 10.5 (14.2) DENHDR 10.9 (15.0) SCHEVNGN 11.2 (14.2) EURPFM 10.6 (11.4) TERSLNZE 11.1 (11.5) HARVT (13.7) TEXNZE 11.0 (16.6) HOEKVHLD 11.8 (13.1) VLAKTVDRN 11.4 (14.0) HUIBGT 13.4 (12.9) VLISSGN 13.8 (18.6) IJMDBTHVN 11.0 (12.9) WESTKPLE 12.3 (16.0) K13APFM 8.4 (11.0) WIERMGDN 12.1 (12.3) LICHTELGRE 10.6 (11.5) RMS over above stations: 11.5 cm (14.1 cm) Further validation ongoing, especially on storm situations
11 FEWS North Sea
12 FEWS North Sea Developments: New hydrodynamic North Sea model: DCSM v6 New neural network models for specific locations FEWS North Sea will contain information of: Wind forecast information (KNMI, UKMO) Hydrodynamic models (DCSM v5, DCSM v6) Hydrodynamic model with Kalman filter (DCSM v5) Baysian model averaging module Wave model: SWAN North Sea Neural network models for specific locations NOOS model forecasts (UK, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Norway) In-situ measurements Radar information
13 FEWS North Sea concept ICT platform FSS 1 FEWS Database Clients: OC SVSD ICT platform FSS 2 Master Controller OC HMCN OC HMCZ ICT platform FSS 3 Archive Database (Matroos) OC Maeslant barrier
14 FEWS North Sea
15 DCSM v6 water levels
16 SWAN North Sea: wave hight
17 Water level forecast
18 Surge forecast
19 FEWS North Sea Issues to be addressed: Central hosting, back-up Support & maintenance (RWS Deltares) Sharing of information: defining client profiles to be set in the FEWS launcher Data streams: robust and efficient concept (what to get how from where and what to store where how long for whom) FEWS developments: Start large hydrodynamics model on cluster (parallel computing) Visualization of wave spectra information (?) Building up a training environment
20 Training
21 Training elements (1) Process knowledge (2) Domain knowledge (3) Software and tools (Delft-FEWS) Training sessions
22 Process knowledge OK? Act? Data More data/ information Operator Flood forecaster Issue? Model Forecast Hydrologist Flood Warner Warning
23 Process knowledge
24 Domain knowlegde (SVSD) Springtide and neaptide S2 M2 M2+S2 Zon
25 Software and tools Manuals, FEWS training courses
26 Training methods Process knowledge Manuals and check lists Seminars, discussions Observe the process, take part in training sessions Domain knowledge Course, seminar Books and papers, Software and tools FEWS training course Training sessions
27 Training sessions Collect data/ information Set up training scenario s Training session Evaluate training Maintain material/ tools for next session
28 Serious Gaming
29 Gaming No, that s not what we mean!
30 Game - phasethat s 3 more like it
31 Comparisson with not so serious gaming Real Time Strategy Games have 3 important training options: You can play with the rate at which time passes. This gives you the important advantage of taking more time to think situations over and make better decisions You can modify the situations in such a way that you can practice only those areas you are interested in, or those situation that need the most practice You can start over any time you like and erase mistakes, until you find the right solution that works in that particular situation
32 The three Building blocks of Serious Gaming The fusion ofplay, reality, meaning Play Meaning Serious Game Reality Source: Harteveld et al. Balancing pedagogy, game and reality: The design philosophy of LEVEE PATROLLER
33 Serious games Players Process Environment Facilitators OK? Data In game Operator Model Forecast
34 Example Levee Patroller normal situation (potential) flooding normalization Strategic Roles Daily forecast LCO game Time Tactical Operational Levee patroller
35 Scale of ambition On the scale of ambition we defined two extremes: The current level of the levee patroller, which trains one role in a fictive world A total virtual crisis with all stakeholders in a virtual world modeled from real life data Serious Game Current Current Levee Levee Patroller Patroller Virtual Virtual crisis crisis
36 Example Serious game LCO
37 Example Serious game LCO Not a virtual 3D game, but Card game, combined with digital information Time button (speed up) Incoming information Orders/ tasks Interruptions (press) Set up game: 3 teams playing, Each team 6 players: Chairman Expert hydrology Expert local area Expert communication Operational forecaster
38 LCO Game
39 LCO Game
40 LCO Game
41 Serious game for forecasters The SVSD GAME: And now the FEWS forecasters!!! Players Forecasters at SVSD Information users (waterboards) Process Environment Interrupting elements (press) Urgent matters (politicians, managers) SVSD FEWS North Sea MATROOS (data archive) Virtual shell Telephone/ fax
42 Delft-FEWS GAME What are your ideas? Which elements should be in the game? Who would like to join a brainstorming?
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