Atmospheric River Reconnaissance
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1 Air Force C 130 Aircraft Weather Recon Squadron NOAA G IV Atmospheric River Reconnaissance F. Marty Ralph Forest Cannon FMA Annual Conference 6 Sep Reno NV
2 Atmospheric River Reconnaissance FM Ralph (Scripps/CW3E), V Tallapragada (NWS/NCEP), J Doyle (NRL) Water managers, transportation sector, agriculture, etc require improved atmospheric river (AR) predictions AR Forecast skill assessment establishes a performance baseline error 400 km AR Landfall position forecast error at 3 day lead time Wick et al. 2013
3 Atmospheric River Reconnaissance FM Ralph (Scripps/CW3E), V Tallapragada (NWS/NCEP), J Doyle (NRL) Three primary sources of error in numerical weather prediction: New Adjoint includes moisture and finds AR is prime target 36-h Sensitivity (Analysis) 00Z 13 February (Final Time 12Z 14 February 2014) J. Doyle, C. Reynolds, C. Amerault, F.M. Ralph (International Atmospheric Rivers Conference 2016) Color contours show the forecast sensitivity to 850 mb water vapor (grey shading) uncertainty at analysis time 00Z 13 Feb 2014 for a 36 h forecast over NorCal valid 12Z 14 Feb Unresolved subgridscale processes Parameterization error Initial condition error (WSWC Report 2013) Forecast improvement area Potential Impact of Targeted Observations is Maximized Moisture sensitivity is strongest along AR axis; located > 2000 km upstream Moisture sensitivity substantially larger than temp. or wind sensitivity.
4 An example forecast challenge: 7 Feb (Oroville) Was the Oroville Incident Related to an AR? Yes. An AR of Extreme intensity hit the area.
5 NCEP GEFS dprog/dt Example from February 2017 Oroville Case (dam spillway issue) Moderate Strong Extreme Init: 12Z/5 Feb Init: 12Z/6 Feb Init: 12Z/7 Feb F. M. Ralph and J. Cordeira
6 AR Outlook: 22 March 2018 CNRFC 24 hr QPF issued 20 March valid 5 AM PDT 21 to 5 AM 22 March 2018 CNRFC 24 hr QPE valid 5 AM PDT 21 to 5 AM 22 March 2018 The 24 hr accumulated precipitation forecast for 6 + The 24 hr quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) indicated that ~6 fell along the Coastal Mts. and ~2 fell over the Santa Ynez Mts. The QPE accumulations resulted in a over forecast of ~4 in. over the Santa Ynez Mts. and an under forecast of ~3 in. over Big Sur
7 96-h TIVT Analysis and Forecast Verification: Valid 00Z 20 Mar. 00Z 24 Mar h TIVT (10 7 kg m -1 ) Analysis 96-h TIVT Forecast - Analysis h 40 o N 30 o N 130 o W 120 o W 130 o W 120 o W The errors in the precipitation forecasts were partly driven by errors in weather model forecast of AR landfall location However, the observations (GFS analysis) showed that the core of the AR was instead over Big Sur (~ km from the predicted position). Big Sur did receive up to 8+ inches of rain, while mountains above Santa Barbara received 2 4 inches
8 AR RECON: USAF C 130 NOAA G IV Average Number of AR Days and Percentage of Precipitation Attributable to ARs (Jan Feb, ) USAF C 130 NOAA G IV USAF C 130 Address model initial condition errors through targeted observation profiles Number of AR Days % of Precipitation Attributable to ARs
9 60N 55N 50N 3.5 h 3.0 h 2.0 h Upper level trough/pv anomaly G IV Ferry time from Seattle (black numbers) 1.0 h 2018 Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Flight Strategies Center time: 0000 UTC Dropsonde deployment window: UTC 45N Example of a target for 40Nthe NOAA G IV 35N Example of 30N Atmospheric River target for AF C 130s (color fill: IVT) 160W 150W AF C 130 AF C h 6 h 4 h 3 h 140W 130W 120W On station time for G IV (red text) 6 storms in 2018 Air Force C 130 Aircraft Weather Recon NOAA G IV 3 storms in 2018 Each aircraft has a range of about 3500 nm F.M. Ralph (AR Recon PI) and AR Recon Team
10 AR Recon 2018 Flight Operations Planning and Execution NWS Co PI V. Tallapragada (NCEP) Co PI A. Edman (NWS WR) Co PI AR Recon PI and Mission Director F.M. Ralph (SIO/CIMEC & CW3E) J. Doyle (NRL) Alternate Coordinators: A. Wilson, J. Kalansky, F. Cannon (CW3E) Flight Execution Major A. Lundry (AF C 130s) J. Parrish (NOAA G IV) Flight Directors C 130 & G IV Crews; CARCAH AR Core Target Planning Two C 130s J. Rutz (NWS WR) Primary J. Cordeira (Plym. St.) Alternate AR Core Target Advisors C. Reynolds (NRL) backup C. Smallcomb (NWS) D. Lavers (ECMWF) R. Demirdjian (SIO/CW3E) Planning Data and Flight Summaries iterate *Meetings led by either Cordeira, Rutz, Lavers, or alternate Moist Adjoint Team C. Reynolds (NRL) Primary J. Doyle (NRL) Alternate R. Demirdjian (SIO/CW3E) Support Flight Summaries TBD (SIO/CW3E) PDocs/GrStud Flight Track Assessment Air Force Navigator NOAA (Parrish/Cowan) Coordinator: F. Cannon (CW3E) Daily Forecasts, Flight Summaries and Planning 800 AM PT* AR Recon Forecasting Team J. Cordeira (Plymouth St.) Primary D. Lavers (ECMWF) Alternate J. J. Rutz (NWS WR) Alternate C. Hecht (SIO/CW3E) Alternate B. Kawzenuk (SIO/CW3E) K. Howard (NCEP), Other TBD iterate Secondary Target Planning NOAA G IV C. Davis (NCAR) Primary T. Galarneau (U.AZ) Alternate Secondary Target Advisors J. Doyle (NRL) L. Bosart (SUNY Albany) R. Demirdjian (SIO/CW3E) TBD *Attended by primary and alternate from each group (not by all members of each group) Modeling and Data Assimilation SC F.M. Ralph (SIO/CW3E) Co Chair V. Tallapragada (NCEP) Co Chair J. Doyle (NRL), C. Davis (NCAR) F. Pappenberger (ECMWF), A. Subramanian (SIO/CW3E) Key dates 19 January: commit where to deploy the 2nd C Jan 10 Feb: G IV is available for 3 storm flights from Seattle 25 Jan 27 Feb: two C 130s available for 6 storm flts from Hawaii, Seattle, Travis AFB or San Diego
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12 AR Recon Modeling and Data Assimilation Steering Committee Contacts: F. M. Ralph (PI; V. Tallapragada (Co PI; 80 N 60 N 40 N 20 N 0 N 20 S 40 S 60 S 80 S IOP5 Feb 26, z ECMWF data coverage (used observations 27/01/ Total number of obs = 86 TEMP-SHIP TAC (1) Dropsonde (80) TEMP-Land TAC (46 TEMP-Ship (BUFR) (6) 150 W 120 W 90 W 60 W 30 W 0 E 30 E 150 W 120 W 90 W 60 W 30 W 0 E 30 E Steering Committee F. Martin Ralph (UCSD/Scripps/CW3E) AR Recon PI and AR DA SC Co Chair Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NWS/NCEP) AR Recon Co PI and AR DA SC Co Chair Jim Doyle (NRL) Aneesh Subramanian (UCSD/Scripps/CW3E) Chris Davis (NCAR/MMM) Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
13 Contacts: F. M. Ralph (PI; V. Tallapragada (Co PI; IOP5 Feb 26, z IOP6 Feb 28, z Integrated Vapor Transport (kg s 1 m 1 )
14 AR Recon 2019: Requesting 3 Aircraft to Sample 9 Storms Two Air Force C-130s and NOAA s G-IV Feb 2016: 3 Storms (2 aircraft per storm) Jan Feb 2018: 6 Storms (3 aircraft per storm in 3 storms; 2 aircraft in 1 storm; 1 aircraft in 2 storms) o Jan Mar 2019 (Requested): 9 storms (3 aircraft per storm) o Target total number of cases: 18 storms, with 1, 2 or 3 aircraft sampling each storm Interagency, International Steering Committee in place Carry out assessments Refine data assimilation methods Create appropriate evaluation metrics Provide impact results in peer reviewed publications
15 Summary of AR Recon Advancements and Continued Investment Considerable effort is still required to quantify the impact of assimilating targeted dropsonde observations of offshore ARs on forecast skill and the potential for enhanced prediction of West Coast extreme weather events through the annual implementation of AR Recon. The potential upside of observing AR properties ahead of landfall warrants a large investment of aircraft, instrumentation and research resources at the national level. Lavers, D.A., M.J. Rodwell, D.S. Richardson, F.M. Ralph, J.D. Doyle, C.A. Reynolds, V. Tallapragada, and F. Pappenberger, 2018: The Gauging and Modeling of Rivers in the Sky. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: /2018gl079019
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