Atmospheric rivers as triggers for post-fire debris flows in the Transverse Ranges of Southern California
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1 Atmospheric rivers as triggers for post-fire debris flows in the Transverse Ranges of Southern California International Atmospheric Rivers Conference,10 August 2016 Nina Oakley, Jeremy Lancaster, Mike Kaplan, Marty Ralph
2 Transverse Range Study Area
3 Fire and Flood Debris flows from the Old/Grand Prix Fires killed 16 people 25 Dec 2003 Santa Barbara News Press front page, 29 Dec 2015
4 Previous work- post-fire debris flows for Transverse Ranges 7.2 mm h -1 from Cannon et al. (2008)
5 Purpose of study Identify common atmospheric features among post-fire debris flow events Communicate findings to non-meteorological audience (geomorphology, natural hazard communities) Help NWS forecasters put potential post-fire debris flow events in context of historic events
6 Event Database 19 storm dates, 21 debris flow events Date Location- burn area Date Location-burn area Daley (western SB) Daley (western SB) Daley (western SB) Daley (western SB) Creek Road (Topa) San Dimas (SG) Steckel (Topa) Grand (Topa) Hopper/Grand (Topa) Grand Prix/Old (SG/SB) Simi (Santa Susana) Sayre (western SG) Sayre (western SG) Sayre (western SG) Station (western SG) Station (western SG) Station (western SG) Station (western SG) Station (western SG) Springs (western SM) Springs (western SM)
7 Fire perimeters
8 Case studies Generated for each event from variety of data sources: NARR (32 km) SSM/I Radar ESRL profilers Precipitation gauges Subset of plots for individual case study: 18 Jan 2010
9 Was it an AR event? Compared to AR catalog (Rutz et al. 2014) Compared to closed low (CL) catalog (Oakley and Redmond 2014) At grid point closest to study area If event occurred within +/- 12 h of AR/CL, associated Classification of Events (total 19 events) AR only CL only AR/CL Other Total events with AR Total events with CL 14 (of 19) 5 (of 19)
10 Composites- IWV and IVT AR threshold Compositing of values at 12 NARR grid points pertinent to each of the 21 debris flow events (two storm dates have debris flows in 2 locations) Thresholds: 20 mm IWV (Ralph et al. 2004) 250 kg/m/s IVT (Rutz et al. 2014)
11 Composites- IWV and IVT IVT > 250 kg/m/s Composite of 19 storm events
12 Composite Winds 300 hpa winds from WSW, >= 40 m/s Composite of values at 12 NARR grid points pertinent to each event
13 Composite Winds 700 hpa winds from SW, >= 20 m/s Composite of values at 12 NARR grid points pertinent to each event
14 Composite Winds 925 hpa winds from south, >5 m/s favorable for orographic enhancement on south facing slopes Composite of values at 12 NARR grid points pertinent to each event
15 Composites- 300 hpa and 925 hpa wind Upper level jet to south of study area IVT (vectors) from southwest IWV over threshold
16 Composites- 300 hpa and 925 hpa wind entrance exit Study area lies in curved jet exit IVT (vectors) from southwest IWV over threshold
17 Composites- 300 hpa and 925 hpa wind L exit Study area lies left jet streak exit IVT (vectors) from southwest IWV over threshold
18 Composites- 300 hpa and 925 hpa wind Southerly low level winds IVT (vectors) from southwest IWV over threshold
19 Stability and Moisture Flux 75% of moisture flux below based on NARR grid point over ocean upstream of each burn area at time of event
20 Conclusions- synoptic scale
21 Conclusions- mesoscale
22 Conclusions- transect after Ralph et al. 2005
23 Next steps Product: manuscript to Natural Hazards Includes table of event details with both met and geomorphology focus Communicate findings, AR science to geology/geomorphology community Share and promote AR tools with this community Events without AR? High resolution modeling of PFDF event Need more debris flow obs! Similar projects for shallow landslides throughout CA
24 Thank you! Camarillo Springs post-fire debris flow, 12 Dec 2014 Photo: Ventura County Star
25 Extra slides
26 Cross section location
27 Table for publication showing some of the common features extracted from the individual case studies
28 CAPE/LI Composites
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