Western States Water Council Forecasting Weather Data June 24, 2014
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1 Western States Water Council Forecasting Weather Data June 24, 2014 Roger V. Pierce Meteorologist -in- Charge NOAA / National Weather Service San Diego CA
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3 Mission- to provide forecasts and warnings: The protection of life and property The enhancement of the national economy The NWS is the official voice for issuing forecasts and warnings during life-threatening weather. Zero to 10 days in advance
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5 San Diego Forecast and Warning Area
6 Meteorological Forecasting Date Needs Focus not just on San Diego but California and the west Great opportunity to work with WSWC Data are key to our success as a group
7 Scale / Forecast Funnel impacting the data used Global picture large scale global storms and how they will impact your individual area Continental Picture / United States and adjacent waters Western US and Eastern Pacific area SoCal - coastal waters / AZ / NV Mesoscale mountains/passes/coastal zones
8 Scale / Forecast Funnel Start with a global picture. Satellites Yes there is more than just satellite data: Balloons sounding data Aircraft data Profilers Surface based observations airports / ship reports Buoys - Mesonet data for great localized surface data
9 Pacific Water Vapor Image from 11/29/12 4 am PST
10 Visible Image - 12/04/12 2PM PST
11 WSR-88D Sacramento Radar on Friday at about 10 am. Red s and bright yellows indicating heavy rainfall.
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13 Radiosonde Launch
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16 Standard - Aviation Surface Observation System
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19 Other Data MesoWest University of Utah citizen weather observers to corporate weather observing companies with surface data user beware. GPS Water Vapor Unmanned Areal Systems Hurricane Hunter Aircraft COOP Data
20 Rain Gauge Locations
21 Pattern Recognition
22 Pattern Recognition
23 Nov 2002 El Nino
24 Nov 2007 La Nina
25 What does your customer want? Warning Coordination Meteorologist (Customer Service Representative) Map the desires of the customer to the science Improve the science - Infuse new technology - Improve products Private Public Partnerships
26 U.S. point and click weather - San Diego point and click NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction -longer range forecasts Climate Prediction Center -shorter range forecasts Hydromet. Pred. Center
27 Backup
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29 Lightning strikes ahead of monsoon surge Generally mid to late summer and/or between breaks in the monsoon
30 Break Down of the upper ridge low RH + strong southwest winds Late summer/fall and/or ahead of any strong dry troughs
31 Downslope/Offshore Winds very warm and very dry air Strongest in the late fall months, but can occur anytime of year
32 Longer Period Forecasts Oceanography sea surface temperatures Global circulation patterns Modern era measurements ie. outgoing longwave radiation Pattern recognition on a monthly to decadal scale Trend analysis Generalizations in forecasting and skill
33 Madden-Julian Oscillation
34 Outgoing Longwave Radiation
35 North Atlantic Oscillation Lisbon, Portugal and Stykkisholmur/Reykjavik, Iceland Azores high and the Icelandic low
36 Pacific Decadal Oscillation
37 Global Forecast System (Surface)
38 Numerical Weather Models
39 18 hour forecast product
40 24 hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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42 CAZ ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS- 755 PM PDT MON JUL TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 60 TO 65. LIGHT WINDS..TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 69 TO 74 NEAR THE COAST TO 82 TO 87 INLAND. LIGHT WINDS..TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 60 TO 65. LIGHT WINDS..WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 69 TO 74 NEAR THE COAST TO 82 TO 87 INLAND. LIGHT WINDS..WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 59 TO 64. LIGHT WINDS..THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 70 TO 75 NEAR THE COAST TO 82 TO 87 INLAND..THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR IN THE EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 58 TO 63..FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 69 TO 74 NEAR THE COAST TO 81 TO 86 INLAND..FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 58 TO 63..SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 69 TO 74 NEAR THE COAST TO 81 TO
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