FISH PASSAGE CENTER AGENDA ITEMS

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FISH PASSAGE CENTER 847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR 97232 Phone: (503) 833 3900 Fax: (503) 232 1259 www.fpc.org/ e mail us at fpcstaff@fpc.

meeting On December 19, 2017, FPAC met via conference call for monthly face to face meeting at the Fish Passage Center office in Portland, OR.

Charlie Morrill (WDFW) Dave Benner (FPC) Erick Van Dyke (ODFW, via phone) Erin Cooper (FPC) Gabe Scheer (FPC) Jay Hesse (Nez Perce Tribe, via phone)

Trevor Conder (NOAA, via phone) AGENDA ITEMS Review and Approval of Notes from November 14 Meeting (00:00:05) FPAC notes from November 14, 2017 were

1 FISH PASSAGE CENTER 847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR Phone: (503) Fax: (503) e mail us at fpcstaff@fpc.org MEMORANDUM To: From: Fish Passage Advisory Committee (FPAC) FPC Staff Date: December 21, 2017 Subject: Action Notes from December 19, 2017, FPAC meeting On December 19, 2017, FPAC met via conference call for monthly face to face meeting at the Fish Passage Center office in Portland, OR. The following people participated in the meeting: Paul Wagner (FPAC Co Chair NOAA) Tom Lorz (FPAC Co Chair CRITFC, via phone) Brandon Chockley (FPC) Charlie Morrill (WDFW) Dave Benner (FPC) Erick Van Dyke (ODFW, via phone) Erin Cooper (FPC) Gabe Scheer (FPC) Jay Hesse (Nez Perce Tribe, via phone) Jennifer Graham (Warm Springs Tribe, via phone) Kyle Dittmer (CRITFC) Sheri Sears (Colville Tribes, via phone) Tom Iverson (Yakima Nation, via phone) Trevor Conder (NOAA, via phone) AGENDA ITEMS Review and Approval of Notes from November 14 Meeting (00:00:05) FPAC notes from November 14, 2017 were approved without changes. It was noted that notes from November 21, 2017 are still outstanding. G:\STAFF\DOCUMENT\2017_Documents\2017_Files\FPAC\1219\12-19_DraftNotes_BRC+EEC.docx

2 Water Supply and Reservoir Status (00:01:15) Dave Benner (FPC) provided a summary of the current reservoir operations, water supply forecasts, snowpack estimates, and ESP runoff volumes. See the attached document. o There was an error in Water Supply summary, elevation at GCL was 1,284.4 on December 17 th (not 1,287 ) Water supply forecasts are as follows (based on December 18 th ESP, unless otherwise noted): Location % Average ( ) The Dalles (Apr Aug) 104 Grand Coulee (Apr Aug) 103 Libby (Apr Aug) 106 (COE forecast 114) Hungry Horse (Apr Aug) 105 Lower Granite (Apr July) 113 Brownlee (Apr July) 123 Dworshak (Apr July) 103 (COE 129) Weather (00:05:05) Kyle Dittmer (CRITFC) provided a summary of precipitation for season to date and month of November (see attached). Forecast calls for precipitation coming to valley today and tomorrow, will be significant snow at elevations 3,500. Cold and dry after ~Dec day QPF showing precipitation coming back on Pacific NW ~Dec. 26, possible snow at low elevations MEI index curving back to Enso Neutral, other ENSO indices still strengthening and cold water temperatures in Pacific. December expected to be peak of La Niña. NOAA calling for 80% probability of La Niña. Chum Operations, Observes Data, and Recommended Operation (00:11:00) Latest info from WDFW survey crews indicates that chum spawning below BON is nearing end. Plan is to stop spawning operations at end of next week and transition to operation to protect emergence at beginning of Anticipated operation for emergence protection will be TW elevations. Final decision on 12 or 12.5 will be made after TMT discussion on Wednesday, Dec. 20 and WDFW staff survey area on Thursday, Dec. 21. Summer Transport at Lower Monumental Discussion and Fish Passage Plan Inclusion? (00:19:55) Paul Wagner (NOAA) provided two proposed plans for termination of late season transportation from Lower Monumental (see attached). Proposal would be for one of these plans to be included in 2018 FPP. o Paul noted that the COE prefers Option 1, which is to terminate on or after August 16, when collections at LMN drop below 50 per day for three consecutive days. Page 2 of 5

3 Brandon Chockley (FPC) suggested clarification on two questions o What happens if collections increase after transportation at LMN has been terminated? Does transportation resume or stay terminated? o When do you start looking at criterion of 50 fish per day for three consecutive days: August 13 th or August 16 th? Paul clarified that the criteria would start on August 13 th. Jay Hesse (Nez Perce Tribe) stated that he does not think this operation will matter either way in terms of adult returns resulting from this operation. Jay questioned what the future BiOp might have for spill in August. Current BiOp has language to terminate spill at Snake River projects in August, based on collection counts at LGR. This proposal will need to be revisited if future BiOp contains similar operation. Tom Lorz (CRITFC) agreed that this proposal would need to be for 2018 only and may need to be revisited in future years. Paul Wagner (NOAA) reiterated that the FPP is a living document and can be adjusted in future years. FPAC was ok with Option 1 with the following suggestions: o WDFW wants language added to include the option to resume transportation if numbers at LMN increase. Sheri Sears (Coleville Tribes) agrees with this and would like language added. Paul Wagner (NOAA) will incorporate language noting that, if substantial increase in numbers occurs, transportation from LMN may be resumed. NOAA will submit revised Option 1 as a change form for 2018 FPP. Submittal will be from NOAA and FPOM can continue discussions on ultimate fate. Erick Van Dyke (ODFW) noted that it may still be confusing as to how this might be applied. Erick asked what primary objective of proposal is. Paul Wagner (NOAA) stated that the primary objective is to use resources as efficiently as possible. After reviewing recent year s data, is it out best use of resources to truck so few fish from LMN to below BON? Jay Hesse (Nez Perce Tribe) suggested that, if motivation is to save money, should capture that somewhere. Paul reminded FPAC that money savings is negligible, objective is to be efficient with people s time and resources. Report from Little Goose Modeling Trip (00:40:00) Spill Ops Team went to ERDC first week of December to review Little Goose model and potential operations for Tom Lorz (CRITF) summarized his take home from modeling trip: o Tailrace hydraulics are highly sensitive to changes in percent spill and percent flow o Feels that group came up with better pattern but not too optimistic. Will depend on what spill proportions will gas cap spill at LGS result in. TDG levels coming downstream from LGR will be a factor. o Tom suggested looking at enhancing LGR study to evaluate new JBS to monitor route specific passage and survival at LGS. Page 3 of 5

4 o Tom suggested that FPAC needs to review methods for how to diagnose an adult delay problem at LGS. Suggested at least reviewing methodology used by/developed by IDFG. o Will circulate trip report when finished. Jay Hesse (Nez Perce Tribe) summarized his take home from trip: o Reiterated differences in tailrace conditions by various flow patterns and turbine unit priority. Turbine unit priority made big difference in tailrace hydraulics. o Patterns with potential did not include use of Unit 5, given that it is expected to be out most of next year Charlie Morrill (WDFW) summarized his take home from trip: o North powerhouse loading with higher spill generally had better tailrace hydraulics but still much uncertainty on what will happen. Devil is in the details on how adults will respond to conditions near north powerhouse entrance. o Charlie questions who will make the call on whether there is an issue with adult delay at LGS. Does not feel this has been worked out, nor has methodology been settled on. Trevor Conder (NOAA) summarized his take home from trip: o Agreed with most of what has been stated by Tom, Jay, and Charlie. o Added that still need to evaluate methodology of how delay will be diagnosed. Suggested evaluating methodology for a year (or years) with delay vs. year (or years) without delay. o Also suggested that managers should work through solutions to problem, if delay is found. Would be best to outline solution(s) ahead of time and make it as simple as possible. o COE is working on modifications to LGR juvenile study by adding detection arrays at LGR and LGS to evaluate passage routes at LGS. Erick Van Dyke (ODFW) summarized his take home from trip: o Devil in details comment fits well with this issue o Reiterated need for stepwise approach for solutions to adult delay issue instead of immediately going to status quo spill reduction and for longer periods. o Concerned with adding to LGR study because will not address life cycle issues. Two outstanding issues for FPAC to continue working on with respect to LGS operations o Still need to evaluate methodology (or methodologies) for diagnosing delay at LGS. Charlie Morrill (WDFW) requested that FPC evaluate IDFG model over several years. NOAA will circulate IDFG model (again) for FPC to evaluate. o Work on stepwise approach for solutions to adult delay problem at LGS, ahead of time. Paul Wagner (NOAA) asked what unit priority will be at LGS. Unit priority at LGS will likely be 6, 4, 1, [3, 2]. Order of units 3 and 2 is optional. Page 4 of 5

5 FPAC noted that there is still debate on what unit priority should be if LGS spill is reduced. Should unit priority go back to what has been outlined under 30% spill operation or should stay with order outline above (6,4,1,[3,2])? NOAA will recommend typical south PH priority if gas cap spill equates to 30% or less, which can happen. If spill cap equates to >30%, then switch unit priority to 6,4,1,[2,3]. Dworshak Operation (01:04:45) Current STP has PH discharge continuing at 4.6 Kcfs through 1 st week of January, then going to single unit. o Jay Hesse (Nez Perce) said this was consistent with request to minimize risk to refill and limit TDG. Dave Benner (FPC) provided four modeled scenarios for FPAC to consider. Scenarios were covered in Water Supply memo (attached) o All four scenarios used December 10 th ESP, assumed starting elevation of 1,520 on January 1 st, and assumed maximum January outflow of 5 Kcfs (one unit + estimated 115% TDG gas cap spill) and maximum outflow in February through July of 10.4 Kcfs (two small units + estimated 115% TDG cap spill). In all cases, tried to reach April 15 th and April 30 th flood control elevations. o Scenario 1 50% ESP Exceedence (2.41 MAF) resulted in maximum outflows not exceeded over entire season and April 15 th and April 30 th FC elevations were met and no problem with refill. o Scenario 2 30% ESP Exceedence (2.73 MAF) had similar results as 50% Exceedence scenario except had longer period of 10.4 Kcfs outflows (Feb. 15 Apr 15). Met April 15 th and April 30 th FC elevations and no problems with refill. o Scenario 3 70% Exceedence (2.1 MAF) missed April 15 th and April 30 th FC elevations (5 10 feet below) but no problem with refill. o Scenario 4 COE December Forecast (3.1 MAF) ended up slightly above April 15 th FC target (~2 ) target and hits April 30 th target. No problems with refill. Charlie Morrill (WDFW) requested that Dave include a scenario with 2017 April July inflow (thinks it was about 3.7 MAF). Dave requested feedback if assumed maximum flows were not correct. Coordination (01:16:15) 2018 FPP change form deadline is tomorrow TMT tomorrow and January 3 rd No FPAC on December 26 th or January 2 nd. IF needed, can schedule meetings on these dates but doubtful. Next FPAC conference call will be Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 9:00 AM. The next FPAC face to face meeting will be Tuesday, January 16, 2018 at 1:00 PM. **Note 1:00 start time to account for Monday holiday day before** These minutes have been reviewed and approved by the Fish Passage Advisory Committee. Page 5 of 5

6 FPAC Agenda for Tuesday December 19, 2017 Meeting time: 10:00 AM Location: FPC Conference Room 1. Review and approval of notes from November 14, meeting 2. Water supply and reservoir status 3. Weather update and climate forecast 4. Chum operations, observed data and recommended operation 5. Summer transport at Lower Monumental discussion and Fish Passage Plan inclusion? 6. Report on Little Goose modeling trip 7. Dworshak operation 8. Other 9. Coordination for other schedule meetings

7 FISH PASSAGE CENTER 847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR Phone: (503) Fax: (503) us at MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: FPAC David Benner, FPC DATE: December 19 th, 2017 RE: Reservoir Operations/Snowpack/Water Supply/Dworshak Scenarios Grand Coulee Reservoir is at 1,287.0 feet ( ) and has held steady over the last week. Outflows at Grand Coulee have ranged between 66.9 Kcfs and Kcfs over the last week. The Libby Reservoir is currently at elevation 2,421.7 feet ( ) and has drafted 5.4 feet over the past week. Daily average outflows at Libby Dam have been Kcfs for the last week. Hungry Horse is currently at an elevation of 3,542.4 feet ( ) and has drafted 0.2 feet last week. Outflows at Hungry Horse have been 1.6 Kcfs over the last week. Dworshak is currently at an elevation of 1,521.8 feet ( ) and has drafted 1.0 foot over last week. Dworshak outflows have been 1.7 to 4.7 Kcfs. The Brownlee Reservoir was at an elevation of 2,071.5 feet on December 17, 2017, and drafted 1.5 feet last week. Outflows at Hells Canyon have ranged between 13.9 and 22.5 Kcfs over the last four days. g:\staff\document\2017_documents\2017_files\fpac\1219\fpac summary docx

8 Location December 18, day QPF ESP % Average ( ) Runoff Volume (Kaf) The Dalles (Apr-Aug) ,612 Grand Coulee (Apr-Aug) ,246 Libby Res. Inflow, MT (Apr-Aug) Hungry Horse Res. Inflow, MT (Apr-Aug) Lower Granite Res. Inflow (Apr- July) Brownlee Res. Inflow (Apr-July) Dworshak Res. Inflow (Apr-July) * 6,246 6,697* 105 2, , , * 2,504 3,134* Page 2 of 10

9 Snow Water Equivalent Basin (% Avg.) Columbia above the Snake River Confluence Kootenai River in Montana 83 Flathead River 92 Upper Clark Fork River 118 Bitterroot 89 Lower Clark Fork River 83 Idaho Panhandle Region 75 Columbia above Methow 104 Chelan, Entiat, Wenatchee 69 Yakima, Ahtanum 79 Average * 88 Snake River Snake above Palisades 115 Henry Fork, Teton, Willow, Blackfoot, Portneuf 82 Big and Little Wood 82 Big and Little Lost 98 Raft, Goose, Salmon Falls, Bruneau 52 Weiser, Payette, Boise 71 Owyhee Malheur 28 Grande Ronde, Powder, Burnt, Imnaha 42 Clearwater and Salmon 88 Average * 73 Lower Columbia between Bonneville and McNary Umatilla, Walla Walla, Willow 49 Deschutes, Crooked, John Day 42 Lower Columbia, Hood River 44 Average * 45 Page 3 of 10

10 Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation February FC March FC April FC Figure 1. Grand Coulee Time Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation February FC March FC April FC Figure 2. Libby Time Page 4 of 10

11 Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation February System FC March System FC April FC Time Figure 3. Dworshak Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation January FC February FC March FC April FC Figure 4. Hungry Horse Time Page 5 of 10

12 Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation February FC March FC April FC Figure 5. Brownlee Time Page 6 of 10

13 Dworshak Scenarios Scenario #1: ESP 50% Exceedance: December 10 th 5day ESP (50%) = 2.41 Maf, Jan-July Inflows = 2008 (Apr-July = 2.38 Maf), Flood Control = 2012 (COE Jan Forecast = 2.47 Maf). Max January Outflow = 5 Kcfs. Max February through July Outflows = 10.4 Kcfs (115% TDG). 30 1, DWR Inflow 2004, Apr-July, 2.38 Maf) DWR Mod Outflow (kcfs) 1, DWR Modified Elevation DWR URC Elevations 2.47 Maf FC 1, Discharge (Kcfs) , , GCL Elevation (feet) 5 1, , Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May Jun Jun-18 Date Page 7 of 10

14 Scenario #2: ESP 30% Exceedance December 10 th 5day ESP (30% Exceedance) = 2.73 Maf, Jan-July Inflows = 2006 (Apr- July = 2.67 Maf), Flood Control = 2008 (COE Jan Forecast = 2.72 Maf). Max January Outflow = 5 Kcfs. Max February through July Outflows = 10.4 Kcfs (115% TDG) , DWR Target Outflow (kcfs) DWR Inflow 2006, Apr-July, 2.67 Maf) DWR Modified Elevation DWR URC Elevations 2.72 Maf FC 1, , , Discharge (Kcfs) , , GCL Elevation (feet) 1, , , Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May Jun Jun-18 Date Page 8 of 10

15 Scenario #3: ESP 70% Exceedance December 10 th 5day ESP (30% Exceedance) = 2.1 Maf, Jan-July Inflows = 2014 (Apr- July = 2.15 Maf), Flood Control = 2015 (COE Jan Forecast = 2.1 Maf). Max January Outflow = 5 Kcfs. Max February through July Outflows = 10.4 Kcfs (115% TDG). 30 1, DWR Inflow 2014, Apr-July, 2.15 Maf) DWR Target Outflow (kcfs) DWR Modified Elevation DWR URC Elevations 2.1 Maf FC 1, , , Discharge (Kcfs) , , GCL Elevation (feet) 1, , , Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May Jun Jun-18 Date Page 9 of 10

16 Scenario #4: COE December Forecast COE December 2017 Forecast = 3.1 Maf, Jan-July Inflows = 1999 (Apr-July = 3.1 Maf), Flood Control = 2009 (COE Jan Forecast = 3.1 Maf). Max January Outflow = 5 Kcfs. Max February through July Outflows = 10.4 Kcfs (115% TDG) , DWR Target Outflow (kcfs) DWR Inflow 2009, Apr-July, 3.15 Maf) DWR Modified Elevation DWR URC Elevations 3.1 Maf FC 1, , , Discharge (Kcfs) , , GCL Elevation (feet) 1, , , Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May Jun Jun-18 Date Page 10 of 10

17 Water Year 2018 Precipitation Monthly Clim Norm Monthly Seasonal Temp. (degf) Nov (Oct. 1 - now) (pro-rated) Portland 114% 128% 0.8 UPPER-COLUMBIA: Kamloops 64% 103% 0.9 Revelstoke 36% 52% 0.7 Cranbrook 180% 158% 1.8 Creston 141% 113% 0.5 average: 105% 107% 1.0 Normal: MIDDLE-COLUMBIA: Pendleton 103% 117% 1.7 Redmond 49% 62% 2.6 Yakima 109% 121% 3.8 Wenatchee AP 126% 143% -0.3 Omak 96% 99% 0.8 Spokane 125% 123% 2 average: 101% 111% 1.8 Normal: LOWER SNAKE: Lewiston 149% 137% 1.8 Pullman 132% 152% 3.1 Stanley 261% 193% 2.7 Challis 131% 81% 4.6 average: 168% 140% 3.1 Normal: UPPER and MIDDLE SNAKE: McCall 149% 129% 2.6 Ontario 152% 125% 3.5 Boise 131% 113% 3.8 Twin Falls 131% 111% 2.6 Burley 119% 74% 5.6 Pocatello 118% 91% 5.7 Idaho Falls 84% 95% 5 average: 126% 105% 4.1 Normal:

18 Water Year 2018 Precipitation Monthly Clim Norm Monthly Seasonal Temp. (degf) Dec (Oct. 1 - now) (pro-rated) Portland 13% 96% 0.1 UPPER-COLUMBIA: Kamloops 15% 66% 5.6 Revelstoke 7% 34% 5.0 Cranbrook 21% 106% 2.3 Creston 38% 74% 2.5 average: 20% 70% 3.9 Normal: MIDDLE-COLUMBIA: Pendleton 0% 0% -1.8 Redmond 0% 0% -5.3 Yakima 0% 0% 3.7 Wenatchee AP 13% 97% 1.9 Omak 23% 75% 2.9 Spokane 52% 103% 2.9 average: 15% 46% 0.7 Normal: LOWER SNAKE: Lewiston 107% 131% -2.4 Pullman 39% 128% -1 Stanley 69% 172% 0.8 Challis 25% 66% 2.4 average: 60% 124% 0.0 Normal: UPPER and MIDDLE SNAKE: McCall 49% 112% 0.6 Ontario 31% 92% 1.2 Boise 45% 93% -2.4 Twin Falls 8% 82% -2.2 Burley 10% 56% 1.8 Pocatello 73% 86% -0.7 Idaho Falls 40% 82% -0.7 average: 37% 86% -0.3 Normal: Forecasted Daily Rain (in inches), BON dam area: 19-Dec Dec Dec Dec 0 23-Dec 0 24-Dec 0 25-Dec 0

20 Option 1. Proposal to end transportation based on daily collection data Collection of fish for transport from Lower Monumental will terminate when daily collection is less than 50 fish for three consecutive days after August 16. The facility will continue to assess the fish condition at this project through September. Option 2. Proposal to end transportation based on date Collection of fish for transport from Lower Monumental will terminate on August 31. The facility will continue to assess fish condition at this project through September.

21 mm/dd 2017:LMN 2016:LMN 2015:LMN 2014:LMN 2013:LMN 2012:LMN 2011:LMN 2010:LMN 2009:LMN 2008:LMN 2007:LMN 2006:LMN 1-Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug NA Aug Aug NA Aug Aug NA Aug NA Aug Aug NA Aug NA Aug Aug NA Aug Aug Aug Aug NA 26-Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug NA NA 8 1-Sep NA Sep Sep NA Sep NA Sep Sep NA Sep Sep NA Sep Sep NA Sep Sep NA Sep Sep NA NA Sep NA 8 16-Sep NA NA NA Sep Sep NA NA NA Sep Sep NA Sep Sep NA NA Sep NA Sep NA Sep Sep NA Sep 2 3 NA NA 8 28-Sep NA NA 9 29-Sep Sep 4 3 NA NA NA 23

FISH PASSAGE CENTER. On January 8, 2019, FPAC met for its weekly conference call. The following people participated in the call:

FISH PASSAGE CENTER. On January 8, 2019, FPAC met for its weekly conference call. The following people participated in the call: FISH PASSAGE CENTER 847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR 97232 Phone: (503) 833-3900 Fax: (503) 232-1259 www.fpc.org/ e-mail us at fpcstaff@fpc.org MEMORANDUM To: From: Fish Passage Advisory Committee