On January 12, 2016, FPAC met via conference call for its weekly meeting. The following people participated in the meeting:

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FISH PASSAGE CENTER 847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR 97232 Phone: (503) 833-3900 Fax: (503) 232-1259 www.fpc.org/ e-mail us at fpcstaff@fpc.

1 FISH PASSAGE CENTER 847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR Phone: (503) Fax: (503) us at MEMORANDUM To: From: Fish Passage Advisory Committee (FPAC) FPC Staff Date: January 13, 2016 Subject: Action Notes from January 12, 2016, FPAC meeting On January 12, 2016, FPAC met via conference call for its weekly meeting. The following people participated in the meeting: Paul Wagner (FPAC Co-Chair NOAA) Tom Lorz (FPAC Co-Chair CRITFC) Brandon Chockley (FPC) Charlie Morrill (WDFW) Dave Benner (FPC) Erick Van Dyke (ODFW) Joe Skalicky (USFWS) Kyle Dittmer (CRITFC) Margaret Filardo (FPC) Rick Martinson (PSMFC) Russ Kiefer (IDFG) Sheri Sears (Colville Tribe) Tom Skiles (CRITFC) Tommy Garrison (FPC) AGENDA ITEMS Approval of Notes from December 15 Meeting December 15 notes were approved. A few FPAC members had comments on Draft notes from January 5 meeting. FPC will incorporate comments and post new draft on the web. FPAC should provide comments on new draft by next week s meeting (Jan. 19). \2016_Files\FPAC\0112\ DraftNotes.doc

2 Water Supply/Flood Control Dave Benner (FPC) provided a summary of the current reservoir operations and water supply forecasts, snowpack estimates, and ESP runoff volumes. See the attached document. Weather Kyle Dittmer (CRITFC) provided a summary of weather conditions and water year status. See attached. El Niño has weakened over past month. Peak was in Sept./Oct. of Still a chance that may strengthen within the next 30 days. Kyle provided a brief synopsis of current CRITFC water supply forecast at The Dalles. o Jan.-July 95.5 MAF (94% of normal) o Apr.-July 74.6 MAF (93% of normal) CRITFC water supply forecast includes the following El Niño years: o WY 1940, ʹ41, ʹ42 Warm PDO, El Niño o WY 1958, ʹ64, ʹ66, ʹ70, ʹ73 Cold PDO, El Niño o WY 1977, ʹ78, ʹ80, ʹ83, ʹ76, ʹ95, ʹ98 Warm PDO, El Niño o WY 2003, ʹ04, ʹ10, ʹ13, ʹ15 Cold PDO, El Niño Chum Operations for Incubation Average tailrace elevations at BON have ranged from 13.0 to 13.9 feet over the last week. This is higher than the requested feet and Grand Coulee (GCL) was being drafted during this period. According to BPA, the higher elevations are due to releases from Canada (20 Kcfs from Arrow), per Non-Treaty Storage Agreement (NTS). BPA staff stated that the accounting for the 20 Kcfs is based on flows in Lower Columbia at Bonneville Dam above the base chum operation of 12.2ʹ. Unclear why draft from GCL occurred to meet chum operation, given that Canada is releasing water for NTS. Why can t GCL operation take advantage of Canadian NTS water when it s there? o FPAC will be seeking a more thorough explanation for this operation at tomorrow s TMT call. FPAC members asked if there are other options for NTS water. o No, Canada gets to decide when they want to release NTS water. Paul Wagner (NOAA) circulated a new COE analysis for Chum operations (attached). COE analysis uses current water supply forecast and assumes hypothetical chum operations to estimate probability of meeting the April 10 GCL Upper Rule Curve (URC) elevation. o COE analysis likely does not account for any additional water from Canadian NTS releases. FPAC would like to continue to get this analysis, with the following suggested additions: o Instead of 60-year ESP trace, could we focus on analog years? Suggested that perhaps focus on El Niño years (similar to CRITFC water supply forecast). Page 2 of 4

3 o COE should track daily information on when tailrace elevations exceeded elevations specified by Chum operation in addition to providing information as to why elevations exceeded desired levels (i.e., local rainfall, NTS releases, drafting of GCL, etc.) and for what purpose. Question at hand is: Is there sufficient information to recommend dropping current Chum operation elevation below foot recommendation? o No (stay the course). Joe Skalicky (USFWS) suggested that we need to have a conversation about the types of data that need to be incorporated into Chum monitoring for Ives/Pierce complex. Important to have these conversations now in order to have them in place for fall Comment on Draft Transport COP Paul Wagner (NOAA) had a conversation with new COE Point-of-Contact to explain that this COP should not be considered final because agencies and tribes are still waiting for COE to address past comments on the draft COP. o Paul will follow-up on this conversation with an to COE POC. NOAA has not approved this COP as final and does not plan to until these past comments are formally addressed. Russ Kiefer (IDFG) suggested that FPC should review the Transportation COP and provide comments on accuracy of data/analyses, appropriate uses of data, etc. Tom Lorz (CRITFC) will follow-up with official request to FPC. FPAC members should review newest version of Transportation COP and provide comments to the COE. Once FPAC members have submitted comments, FPAC will request a meeting with the COE to officially address comments from past drafts and comments from this latest draft. The proposed time frame for new comments to be submitted is by late January/early February with a late February meeting with the COE. IDFG suggested this agenda item should stay on future FPAC agendas until a meeting with COE occurs. Other CSS Sort-By-Code o CSS submitted Sort-by-Code for 2016 outmigration. Similar to past requests with two additions: (1) additional tags for subyearling fall Chinook marking and (2) only one hatchery sockeye group (Springfield Hatchery) o Brandon Chockley (FPC) provided a brief review of CSS tagging and changes that were incorporated in Changes for 2015 are being carried into o No objections from FPAC. Paul Wagner will check with NOAA to make sure there are no conflicts and will approve by end of the week. Update on PIT-Tag Detection System Interference o In fall 2015, the U.S. Navy broadcast a low-frequency signal that interfered with detection abilities of several PIT-tag detection systems in the basin. o To date, it is unclear if the Navy plans to test these frequencies again. Page 3 of 4

4 o Discussions/Investigations are on-going but it appears that they might need to occur at a higher level within agencies. Coordination TMT conference call tomorrow (Jan. 13, 2016) FPAC face-to-face at FPC next week (Jan. 19, 9:00 AM). These minutes have been reviewed and approved by the Fish Passage Advisory Committee. Page 4 of 4

5 FPAC Agenda for Tuesday January 12, 2016 Meeting time: 9:00 AM 1. Approval of notes from December 15 meeting 2. Water supply and reservoir status 3. Weather update and climate forecast 4. Chum operations for incubation 5. Comments on draft Transport COP 6. Other 7. Coordination for other schedule meetings

6 FISH PASSAGE CENTER 847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR Phone: (503) Fax: (503) us at MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: FPAC David Benner DATE: January 11, 2016 RE: Reservoir Operations/Water Supply/Snowpack/BON TW Grand Coulee Reservoir is at 1,280.9 feet ( ) and has drafted 2.4 feet over the last week. Outflows at Grand Coulee have ranged between 91.7 and Kcfs over the last week. The Libby Reservoir is currently at elevation 2,414.2 feet ( ) and has drafted 0.4 feet over the previous week. Daily average outflows at Libby Dam have been 4.0 Kcfs over the last week. Hungry Horse is currently at an elevation of 3,521.4 feet ( ) and drafted 1.0 feet over the last week. Outflows at Hungry Horse have been Kcfs over the last week. Dworshak is currently at an elevation of 1,522.6 feet ( ) and has refilled 0.2 feet over the last week. Outflows have been Kcfs over the last week. The Brownlee Reservoir was at an elevation of 2,065.6 feet on January 10, 2016, and has drafted 3.8 feet over the last week. Hells Canyon outflows have ranged between 11.0 and 18.7 Kcfs over the last four days with the minimum outflow now set at 9.6 Kcfs. \fpac\0112\db_fpac summary docx

7 December 13, day QPF ESP January 11, day QPF ESP Location % Average ( ) Runoff Volume (Kaf) % Average ( ) Runoff Volume (Kaf) The Dalles (Apr Aug) , ,400 Grand Coulee (Apr Aug) , ,646 Libby Res. Inflow, MT 109 6,388 (Apr Aug) 98** 5,793** 93 5,498 Hungry Horse Res. Inflow, MT (Apr Aug) 89 1, ,581 Lower Granite Res. Inflow (Apr July) 96 18, ,303 Brownlee Res. Inflow (Apr July) 81 4, ,528 Dworshak Res. Inflow (Apr July) 96 69** 2,316 1,626** 90 79* 2,169 1,913* * COE January Forecast ** COE December Forecast Page 2 of 6

8 Snow Water Equivalent (% Avg.) Snow Water Equivalent (% Avg.) Basin Columbia above the Snake River Confluence Kootenai River in Montana Flathead River Upper Clark Fork River Bitterroot Lower Clark Fork River Idaho Panhandle Region Columbia above Methow Chelan, Entiat, Wenatchee Yakima, Ahtanum Snake River Average * Snake above Palisades Henry Fork, Teton, Willow, Blackfoot, Portneuf Big and Little Wood Big and Little Lost Raft, Goose, Salmon Falls, Bruneau Weiser, Payette, Boise Owyhee Malheur Grande Ronde, Powder, Burnt, Imnaha Clearwater and Salmon Average * Lower Columbia between Bonneville and McNary Umatilla, Walla Walla, Willow Deschutes, Crooked, John Day Lower Columbia, Hood River Average * Bonneville TW (2016) Date Average Minimum Maximum 4-Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Page 3 of 6

9 Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation April FC Elevations Figure 1. Grand Coulee Time Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation April FC Elevations Figure 2. Libby Time Page 4 of 6

10 Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation April System FC Time Figure 3. Dworshak Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation April FC Elevations Figure 4. Hungry Horse Time Page 5 of 6

11 Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation April FC Elevations Figure 5. Brownlee Time Page 6 of 6

12 Water Year 2016 Precipitation Monthly Clim Norm Monthly Seasonal Temp. (degf) Dec (Oct. 1 - now) (pro-rated) Portland 278% 166% 3 UPPER-COLUMBIA: Kamloops 166% 124% 3.6 Revelstoke 97% 105% 3.2 Cranbrook 155% 145% 2.9 Creston 303% 93% 3.4 average: 180% 117% 3.3 Normal: MIDDLE-COLUMBIA: Pendleton 155% 107% 3.8 Redmond 162% 129% 1.6 Yakima 227% 149% 2.8 Wenatchee AP 201% 131% 2.7 Omak 174% 110% 1.9 Spokane 193% 110% 3.3 average: 185% 123% 2.7 Normal: LOWER SNAKE: Lewiston 164% 106% 3.5 Pullman 284% 154% 1.7 Stanley 391% 156% 9.5 Challis 112% 121% 5.4 average: 238% 134% 5.0 Normal: UPPER and MIDDLE SNAKE: McCall 329% 171% 2.8 Ontario 170% 139% 3.2 Boise 110% 119% 1.1 Twin Falls 131% 135% -0.5 Burley 75% 99% 4.2 Pocatello 76% 111% 6.5 Idaho Falls 45% 90% 7 average: 134% 123% 3.5 Normal: Forecasted Daily Rain (in inches), BON dam area: 12-Jan Jan Jan Jan 0 16-Jan 0 17-Jan 0 18-Jan 0

13 Mt. Hood Test Site, Oregon (north Oregon Cascades). Elevation 5370 feet. Irish Taylor, Oregon (central Oregon Cascades). Elevation 5540 feet.

14 Stevens Pass, Washington (central Washington Cascades). Elevation 3950 feet. Mountain Meadows, Idaho (Panhandle, Salmon River drainage). Elevation 6360 feet.

Model Data: ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICITON (ESP) MODEL ANALYSIS RESULTS Used 06-Jan-2016 forecast data set from Northwest River Forecast Center with 61 ensemble years (1949-2009) and 5 days QPF.

Flood Risk Management Assumptions and Elevation Targets Out-month Flood Risk Management elevations are based on individual ESP trace volumes for February onward.

15 Model Data: ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICITON (ESP) MODEL ANALYSIS RESULTS Used 06-Jan-2016 forecast data set from Northwest River Forecast Center with 61 ensemble years ( ) and 5 days QPF. Corresponds to a median April-August forecast volume at The Dalles of 83,171 KAF. Flood Risk Management Assumptions and Elevation Targets Out-month Flood Risk Management elevations are based on individual ESP trace volumes for February onward. Best estimates of the January forecast were used for Flood Risk Management Elevations in January in all ESP years. Grand Coulee April 15 Flood Control Elevation Target (feet) Model Scenarios: Maximum Minimum Median Three scenarios are analyzed: targeting Bonneville tailwater elevations of 1.) 11.5 feet, 2.) 12.0 feet, and 3.) 12.5 feet corresponding to flow rates of 125, 130, and 135 kcfs, respectively. Results Summary: Scenario Bonneville Tailwater Target (feet) Median April 15 Ending Elevation at Grand Coulee (feet) Percent of 61 ESP Simulation Years Meeting April 15 URC Page 2 shows histograms of the magnitude of April 15 elevation target misses for each scenario. Page 3 shows summary plots of Grand Coulee ending elevations for each scenario. Page 4 shows summary plots of Bonneville flows for each scenario 1

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17 Elevation (feet) Grand Coulee Forebay Elevation ESP BON TARGET 125 KCFS (~11.5') Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr Min-5% 5-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-95% 95%-Max Obsv Median Elevation (feet) Grand Coulee Forebay Elevation ESP BON TARGET 130 KCFS (~12.0') Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr Min-5% 5-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-95% 95%-Max Obsv Median Elevation (feet) Grand Coulee Forebay Elevation ESP BON TARGET 135 KCFS (~12.5') Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr Min-5% 5-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-95% 95%-Max Obsv Median 3

18 Bonneville ESP BON TARGET 125 KCFS (~11.5') Flow (cfs) Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr Min-5% 5-75% 25-50% 50-75% 75-95% 95%-Max Median Obsv Bonneville ESP BON TARGET 130 KCFS (~12.0') Flow (cfs) Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr Min-5% 5-75% 25-50% 50-75% 75-95% 95%-Max Median Obsv Bonneville ESP BON TARGET 135 KCFS (~12.5') Flow (cfs) Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr Min-5% 5-75% 25-50% 50-75% 75-95% 95%-Max Median Obsv 4

FISH PASSAGE CENTER. On January 8, 2019, FPAC met for its weekly conference call. The following people participated in the call:

FISH PASSAGE CENTER. On January 8, 2019, FPAC met for its weekly conference call. The following people participated in the call: FISH PASSAGE CENTER 847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR 97232 Phone: (503) 833-3900 Fax: (503) 232-1259 www.fpc.org/ e-mail us at fpcstaff@fpc.org MEMORANDUM To: From: Fish Passage Advisory Committee