Drought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico
|
|
- Allyson Atkins
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Drought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico David S. Gutzler University of New Mexico * The big drought of 2018 * Longer term challenges for water supply * Forecasting streamflow Elephant Butte Reservoir Lush & Lean March 1, 2018
2 USGS Monitoring Well Network Water for Las Cruces and the Mesilla Valley City of Las Cruces: Supplied by groundwater Agriculture: Supplied by groundwater and Rio Grande surface water (released from storage in Elephant Butte Reservoir) à Rio Grande is mostly snow-fed Ultimately, surface water and groundwater are connected 2/21
3 New Mexico reservoir volumes Elephant Butte Reservoir storage 31 Jan 2018 Recovery above 400 Kaf since mid-dec (487 kaf or 24.7% full as of Feb 26) waterdatafortexas.org CLIMAS / U Arizona 3/21
4 Status of Drought: February 2018 The US Drought Monitor is largely based on precipitation At present: DM suggests severe drought across the northern 2/3 of NM and extreme drought in the northern mountains 4/21
5 Snowless Winter of across the Southwest Basin SWE (% Average) 27 Feb 2018 Upper San Juan SNOTEL Feb 27 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun A horrendously dry snow accumulation season across the Southwest 5/21
6 Current U.S. seasonal outlook: for Mar-May 2018 Temperature Precipitation issued 15 February /21 Warmer and drier than average across southern NM
7 NOAA Earth Systems Research Lab La Niña Isn't Helping Precipitation at Las Cruces During La Niña Winter Months Current Global Ocean Temperature Anomaly Map Univ of Arizona / CLIMAS
8 Pacific Decadal Oscillation warm phase; AK salmon PNW salmon cold phase; AK salmon PNW salmon wet wet à correlated with "cold season" precipitation across the Southwest dry dry /21 Mantua et al. (1997)
9 NRCS Feb 1 Water Supply Outlooks for 2018 Spring/Summer Forecast for: Rio Grande Del Norte (headwaters): 50% average Otowi (northern NM): 21% average San Marcial (southern NM): ~0 Upper San Juan R: 45% of avg Upper Pecos basin: 26% of avg Upper Gila basin in NM: 24% of avg These forecasts have tended to overestimate flows in recent years!! 9/21 We are here
10 NRCS Rio Grande Streamflow Outlooks for 2018 Del Norte Colorado gage Apr-Sep Flow [KAF] J F M A M J 2017 obs (107%) 30-year median WY 2018: median forecast = 255 Kaf (50% avg) 10/21 NRCS Water Supply Outlooks
11 Snowpack-streamflow regressions Based on 1 Apr SWE In later epoch: Apr-Jul Discharge [Mm 3 ] Better linear fit (Q depends more directly on SWE) Shallower regression slope (reduced sensitivity of Q to SWE) 11/21 Chavarria & Gutzler (2018)
12 Reconstructed precipitation change, northern NM 140% based on tree ring data NM Climate Division 2 80% Taos Pueblo NMOSE (2006), from G. Garfin (U. Arizona) 12/21 ±20% changes on decadal time scales is typical
13 Proxy Rio Grande streamflow: Otowi gage Reconstructed Rio Grande Streamflow at Otowi 11-year running average ±20% based on tree ring data flow (million acre-feet) Otowi gage / year Huge multidecadal fluctuations in precipitation and streamflow treeflow.org Gutzler (2012)
14 Decreasing snowpack Peak Snowpack Upper Rio Grande Basin 21 st Century Projected Snowpack Chavarria & Gutzler (2018) 14/ % observed decrease since late 1950s Large projected decrease in mean winter snowpack especially where temperature is barely cold enough for snow Brown and Mote (2009) Diminished snowpack also melts earlier in the year... hence earlier timing of snowmelt runoff peaks in seasonal hydrographs
15 Observed climate variability in NM T [F] Temperature Precipitation T: rising ~7 F/century (~4 C/century) P: huge variability P+T: episodic droughts become much worse P [in] 1950s drought 15/21 NOAA divisional data from WRCC
16 Projected temperature change in the Southwest Temperature Projections A1B scenario * Enhanced polar warming * Continents warm more than oceans IPCC AR4 * US Mountain West is a "hot spot" for warming (already happening) 16/21
17 Projected Change in Precipitation by CMIP3 global models, A2 scenario Winter: Strong South-North gradient in Δprecip Much drier across northern Mexico Summer: Weak general tendency toward less precip, but more variable & extreme events Considerable model disagreement 17/21 USGCRP (2009)
18 Projected Middle Rio Grande Streamflow current climate different model projections (A1B-forced) Hurd and Coonrod (2012) Snowpack currently feeds a late Spring flood pulse on the upper Rio Grande and its tributaries 18/21 In the future (warmer) climate: Earlier & weaker snow-fed flood pulse Reduced total streamflow volume, especially in late spring/early summer 2030s: 4-14% reduction 2080s: 8-29% reduction
19 Short term Outlook: Severe Hydrologic Drought The extreme lack of precipitation this Fall and Winter is probably a persistent weather event Some degree of snowpack recovery could happen, but it is very unlikely we'll see close to average snowpack or streamflow this year and EB Res level is already low At least we can see it coming and plan accordingly Yikes, is there any good news? La Niña ocean anomalies (associated with warm, dry winters in New Mexico) tend to decay within a year Summer monsoon rains won't necessarily fail 19/21
20 The Longer-Term Outlook We do not expect this year's extreme dryness to become a new "normal" condition. but All credible climate change projections call for a trend toward warmer, dryer conditions this century warmer temperatures very likely (count on it) some average reduction in precipitation is probable At least we can see it coming and plan accordingly collaborative USDA project in the works 20/21
21 So What To Do? Protect and conserve your water (we're getting better at this!) Treat your groundwater supply as a truly precious buffer against surface water shortages Las Cruces is not Cape Town Future generations would appreciate it if we took climate change seriously thanks! 21/21
Climate change and snowfed rivers in southwestern United States
Climate change and snowfed rivers in southwestern United States Climatic and hydrologic setting Declining snowpack declining streamflow? Uncertainties in climate impacts assessments David S. Gutzler University
More informationA Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado
A Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center, CSU Mike Gillespie Snow Survey Division, USDA, NRCS Presented at the 28 th Annual AGU Hydrology Days, March 26, 2008,
More informationClimate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector. Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist
Climate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist Presented at EPA Extreme Events and Climate Adaptation Planning Workshop June 3, 2015 Water Year Precip. % of Average
More informationClimate Variability. Eric Salathé. Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. Thanks to Nathan Mantua
Climate Variability Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Thanks to Nathan Mantua Northwest Climate: the mean Factors that influence local/regional
More informationUpper Missouri River Basin February 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast February 6, 2018
Upper Missouri River Basin February 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast February 6, 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast Explanation and Purpose of Forecast U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division
More informationPresentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
More informationOutline. Precipitation. How would you describe precipitation patterns in your area? Bottom line: one-page summary
Outline Precipitation June 13, 2013 Phoenix, AZ Measuring rainfall Patterns of precipitation in time and space Predicting precipitation Patterns related to extreme events (floods & drought) Paleo-climate
More informationUpper Missouri River Basin December 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast December 5, 2017
Upper Missouri River Basin December 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast December 5, 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast Explanation and Purpose of Forecast U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division
More informationKey Findings & Implications
A Tree-Ring Based Assessment of Synchronous Extreme Streamflow Episodes in the Upper Colorado & Salt-Verde-Tonto River Basins Key Findings & Implications August 10, 2005 Workshop A Collaborative Project
More informationHighlights of the 2006 Water Year in Colorado
Highlights of the 2006 Water Year in Colorado Nolan Doesken, State Climatologist Atmospheric Science Department Colorado State University http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Presented to 61 st Annual Meeting
More informationThe Colorado Drought of 2002 in Perspective
The Colorado Drought of 2002 in Perspective Colorado Climate Center Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu Known Characteristics of
More informationQuenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply
Quenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply Roger Bales, UC Merced Snow conditions Snow & climate change Research directions Sierra Nevada snow
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System February 7, 2017
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System February 7, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS,
More informationWebinar and Weekly Summary February 15th, 2011
Webinar and Weekly Summary February 15th, 2011 -Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought Monitor Upper Colorado Normal Precipitation Upper Colorado
More informationColorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook
Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu How we got into this drought! Fort
More informationUpper Missouri River Basin January 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast January 3, 2018
Calendar Year Runoff Forecast Upper Missouri River Basin January 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast January 3, 2018 Explanation and Purpose of Forecast U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division
More informationOregon Water Conditions Report May 1, 2017
Oregon Water Conditions Report May 1, 2017 Mountain snowpack in the higher elevations has continued to increase over the last two weeks. Statewide, most low and mid elevation snow has melted so the basin
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 12, 2019
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 12, 2019 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More information2003 Moisture Outlook
2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu Through 1999 Through 1999 Fort Collins Total Water
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationClimate Change RMJOC Study Summary
Climate Change RMJOC Study Summary Erik Pytlak Weather and Streamflow Forecasting Bonneville Power Administration Portland, OR IPCC: International Panel on Climate Change Established by the United Nations
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sroot@weatherbank.com MARCH 2017 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average contiguous
More informationOregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017
Oregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017 Mountain snowpack continues to maintain significant levels for mid-april. By late March, statewide snowpack had declined to 118 percent of normal after starting
More informationModeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman. CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan
Modeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan The Dworshak reservoir, a project operated by the Army Corps
More informationBecky Bolinger Water Availability Task Force November 13, 2018
Colorado Climate Center WATF Climate Update Becky Bolinger Water Availability Task Force November 13, 2018 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Water Year 2018 Colorado s Climate in Review COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
More informationThe following information is provided for your use in describing climate and water supply conditions in the West as of April 1, 2003.
Natural Resources Conservation Service National Water and Climate Center 101 SW Main Street, Suite 1600 Portland, OR 97204-3224 Date: April 8, 2003 Subject: April 1, 2003 Western Snowpack Conditions and
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 6, 2018
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 6, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More informationMissouri River Basin Climate Outlook 1 May Dr. Dennis Todey State Climatologist South Dakota State Univ.
Missouri River Basin Climate Outlook 1 May 2014 Dr. Dennis Todey State Climatologist South Dakota State Univ. dennis.todey@sdstate.edu 605-688-5141 Photo taken Feb 19, 2013 General Information Providing
More informationSierra Weather and Climate Update
Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University February 7, 2017 What a difference from last year at this time. Temperatures in January and February
More informationAssessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective
Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective Flavio Lehner, Andrew Wood Eugene Wahl Dagmar Llewellyn, Douglas Blatchford NCAR Research Applications
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System April 18, 2017
1 of 11 4/18/2017 3:42 PM Precipitation NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System April 18, 2017 The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations.
More informationThe Colorado Drought : 2003: A Growing Concern. Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center.
The Colorado Drought 2001-2003: 2003: A Growing Concern Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 2 2002 Drought History in Colorado
More informationClimate also has a large influence on how local ecosystems have evolved and how we interact with them.
The Mississippi River in a Changing Climate By Paul Lehman, P.Eng., General Manager Mississippi Valley Conservation (This article originally appeared in the Mississippi Lakes Association s 212 Mississippi
More informationNIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary. Upper Colorado River Basin June 21, 2011
NIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary Upper Colorado River Basin June 21, 2011 PrecipitaEon and Snowpack Fig. 1: June month to date precipitaeon in inches. Fig. 2: 24 hour accumulated
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 11, 2018
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 11, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and
More informationDK DM M EMORANDUM D ECEMBER 28, 2018 SUBJECT:
TO: CC: FROM: SUBJECT: BOARD OF DIRECTORS M EMORANDUM D ECEMBER 28, 2018 ANDY MUELLER, GENERAL MANAGER DAVE DK KANZER, P.E. & DON MEYER, P.E. DK DM COLORADO RIVER BASIN WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS UPDATE AND
More informationMinnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture. Today. 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date
Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture Kenny Blumenfeld, State Climatology Office Crop Insurance Conference, Sep 13, 2017 Today 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date
More informationUpper Missouri River Basin May 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast May 4, 2018
Calendar Year Runoff Forecast Explanation and Purpose of Forecast Upper Missouri River Basin May 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast May 4, 2018 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division Missouri
More informationPrecipitation. Standardized Precipitation Index. NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System September 5, 2017
9/6/2017 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System September 5, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS,
More informationJanuary 2011 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast
January 2011 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast 2010 Runoff Year Calendar Year 2010 was the third highest year of runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City with 38.8 MAF, behind 1978 and 1997 which
More informationA Review of the 2003 Water Year in Colorado
Hydrology Days 24 A Review of the 23 Water Year in Colorado Nolan J. Doesken 1 Colorado Climate Center, Atmospheric Science Department, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado Michael A. Gillespie
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 7, 2018 Summary: The ridge pattern that brought drier and warmer conditions from December through most
More informationNIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary. Upper Colorado River Basin
NIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary Upper Colorado River Basin August 3, 2010 Precipitation and Snowpack Fig. 1: July precipitation in inches Fig. 2: July precip as percent of average
More informationNIDIS Drought and Water Assessment
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment PRECIPITATION The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom, and left to right: most recent 7-days
More informationMarch 1, 2003 Western Snowpack Conditions and Water Supply Forecasts
Natural Resources Conservation Service National Water and Climate Center 101 SW Main Street, Suite 1600 Portland, OR 97204-3224 Date: March 17, 2003 Subject: March 1, 2003 Western Snowpack Conditions and
More information-Assessment of current water conditions. - Precipitation Forecast. - Recommendations for Drought Monitor
April 27, 2010 -Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought Monitor 7 Day Precipitation 19-25 April 2010 Month-to-Date Precipitation 1-25 April 2010
More informationNIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary. Upper Colorado River Basin February 12, 2013
NIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary Upper Colorado River Basin February 12, 2013 Fig. 1: January precipitagon as a percent of average. Fig. 2: February 1 9 precipitagon in inches.
More informationDrought in Southeast Colorado
Drought in Southeast Colorado Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 1 Historical Perspective on Drought Tourism
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College April 4, 2018 Summary: A near Miracle March played out bringing cooler and wetter conditions to the majority
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System May 23, 2017
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System May 23, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 21, 2017
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 21, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationDirection and range of change expected in the future
Direction and range of Air Temperature Over the past 30 years, air Across the greater PNW and temperature has been Columbia Basin, an ensemble increasing an average of forecast from ten of the best 0.13
More informationPRECIPITATION. Last Week Precipitation:
12/3/2014 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment PRECIPITATION The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom, and left to right: most
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System January 15, 2019
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System January 15, 2019 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and
More informationPRECIPITATION. Last Week Precipitation:
2/24/2015 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment PRECIPITATION The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom, and left to right: most
More informationColorado weather and climate update: a bit more than halfway through the water year (Or: What s going on with the weather?? )
Colorado weather and climate update: a bit more than halfway through the water year (Or: What s going on with the weather?? ) Russ S. Schumacher Colorado State Climatologist Director, Colorado Climate
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationColorado Water Supply Outlook Report April 1, 2016
Colorado Water Supply Outlook Report April 1, 216 Kevin Houck and Allison Franz of the Colorado Water Conservation Board measure the Willow Creek Pass snow course. This snow course recorded 129% of normal
More informationAlbeni Falls Operations Meeting 2015
Albeni Falls Operations Meeting 2015 Katherine Rowden NWS Joel Fenolio Corps of Engineers Agenda Introductions Drought-Weather Conditions Free flow operations Review of Clarified Operations Albeni Falls
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales sroot@weatherbank.com MARCH 2016 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The March
More informationMontana Drought & Climate
Montana Drought & Climate MARCH 219 MONITORING AND FORECASTING FOR AGRICULTURE PRODUCERS A SERVICE OF THE MONTANA CLIMATE OFFICE IN THIS ISSUE IN BRIEF PAGE 2 REFERENCE In a Word PAGE 3 REVIEW Winter 219:
More informationINVISIBLE WATER COSTS
Every Drop Every Counts... Drop Counts... INVISIBLE WATER COSTS Corn - 108.1 gallons per pound How much water it takes to produce... Apple - 18.5 gallons to grow Beef - 1,581 gallons per pound Oats - 122.7
More informationNational Integrated Drought Information System. Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 20-March-2012
National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 20-March-2012 Current drought status from Drought Monitor http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
More informationFlood Risk Assessment
Flood Risk Assessment February 14, 2008 Larry Schick Army Corps of Engineers Seattle District Meteorologist General Assessment As promised, La Nina caused an active winter with above to much above normal
More information-Assessment of current water conditions. - Precipitation Forecast. - Recommendations for Drought Monitor
2 June 12, 2012 -Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought Monitor 7-day average discharge compared to historical discharge for the day
More informationMidwest and Great Plains Climate and Drought Update
Midwest and Great Plains Climate and Drought Update June 20,2013 Laura Edwards Climate Field Specialist Laura.edwards@sdstate.edu 605-626-2870 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University General
More informationPreliminary Runoff Outlook February 2018
Preliminary Runoff Outlook February 2018 Prepared by: Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency General Overview The Water Security Agency (WSA) is preparing for 2018 spring runoff including
More informationMidwest and Great Plains Drought and Climate Summary 20 February 2014
Midwest and Great Plains Drought and Climate Summary 20 February 2014 Wendy Ryan Assistant State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University wendy.ryan@colostate.edu 970-491-8506 General
More information-Assessment of current water conditions. - Precipitation Forecast. - Recommendations for Drought Monitor
2 May 1 st, 2012 -Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought Monitor AHPS Water Year Precipitation as Percentage of Normal 7-day average
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System January 16, 2018
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System January 16, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and
More informationNIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary. Upper Colorado River Basin September 27, 2011
NIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary Upper Colorado River Basin September 27, 2011 PrecipitaFon and Snowpack Fig. 1: Water year to date precipitafon as a percent of average. Fig.
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 30, 2018
1/2/2019 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 30, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS,
More informationMidwest and Great Plains Climate- Drought Outlook 17 April 2014
Midwest and Great Plains Climate- Drought Outlook 17 April 2014 Dr. Dennis Todey State Climatologist South Dakota State Univ. dennis.todey@sdstate.edu 605-688-5141 Photo taken Feb 19, 2013 Tornado-Trenton,
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System October 30, 2018
10/30/2018 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System October 30, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS,
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College December 5, 2017 Summary: November was relatively cool and wet from central California throughout most of
More information2015 Fall Conditions Report
2015 Fall Conditions Report Prepared by: Hydrologic Forecast Centre Date: December 21 st, 2015 Table of Contents Table of Figures... ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 BACKGROUND... 2 SUMMER AND FALL PRECIPITATION...
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 5, 2018 Summary: A persistent ridge of high pressure over the west in December produced strong inversions
More information-Assessment of current water conditions. - Precipitation Forecast. - Recommendations for Drought Monitor
June 1, 2010 -Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought Monitor Snotel WYTD Precipitation as Percentage of Average Upper Colorado Headwaters 88% of
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management
Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Navigator s Meeting February 12, 2014 Bill Doan, P.E. Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College February 5, 2018 Summary: For the majority of the month of January the persistent ridge of high pressure
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 18, 2018
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 18, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More informationNIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary. Upper Colorado River Basin June 28, 2011
NIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary Upper Colorado River Basin June 28, 2011 PrecipitaFon and Snowpack Fig. 1: June month to date precipitafon in inches. Fig. 2: June 19 25 precipitafon
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 4, 2018
12/4/2018 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 4, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS,
More information-Assessment of current water conditions. - Precipitation Forecast. - Recommendations for Drought Monitor
April 20 th, 2010 -Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought Monitor 7 Day Precipitation 12-18 April 2010 Month-to-Date Precipitation 1-28 March 2010
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Date issued: Oct 26, 2017 1. Overview The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to develop towards a La Niña state, and is expected to be in at
More information-Assessment of current water conditions. - Precipitation Forecast. - Recommendations for Drought Monitor
2 May 8 th, 2012 -Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought Monitor AHPS Analysis 5/7/12 7-day average discharge compared to historical
More informationWind River Indian Reservation and Surrounding Area Climate and Drought Summary
Northern Arapaho Tribe Wind River Indian Reservation and Surrounding Area Climate and Drought Summary Winter Events & Spring Outlook 2015-2016 Winter Was Warm And Dry Winter was warm and dry for the Wind
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 14, 2017
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 14, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System April 24, 2018
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System April 24, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More information2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care
2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days
More informationUpper Colorado River Basin Flows and Paleohydrology Jenny Ta
Upper Colorado River Basin Flows and Paleohydrology Jenny Ta Introduction The Colorado River flows from its headwaters in the Rocky Mountains, through seven U.S. and two Mexican states into the Colorado
More informationJanuary 25, Summary
January 25, 2013 Summary Precipitation since the December 17, 2012, Drought Update has been slightly below average in parts of central and northern Illinois and above average in southern Illinois. Soil
More information1. Recent Conditions: Temperature (up to 1/14/04) Sources: WRCC, HPRCC
1. Recent Conditions: Temperature (up to 1/14/4) Sources: WRCC, HPRCC 1a. Water year '3-'4 (through 1/14) departure from average temperature ( F). 1c. Previous 3 days (12/16-1/14) departure from average
More informationForecast Challenges for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Forecast Challenges for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center John Lhotak, Development and Operations Hydrologist Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Workshop May 16th, 2018 1 River Forecast Centers
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com JANUARY 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review During January, the average
More informationASO in Colorado: supporting resilient water management through research support & emerging partnerships
ASO in Colorado: supporting resilient water management through research support & emerging partnerships Jeffrey S. Deems Airborne Snow Observatory Western Water Assessment National Snow and Ice Data Center
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System October 17, 2017
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System October 17, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and
More informationClimatic and Ecological Conditions in the Klamath Basin of Southern Oregon and Northern California: Projections for the Future
Climatic and Ecological Conditions in the Klamath Basin of Southern Oregon and Northern California: Projections for the Future A Collaborative Effort by: CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE INSTITUTE FOR A SUSTAINABLE
More information