Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective
|
|
- Caitlin Cummings
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective Flavio Lehner, Andrew Wood Eugene Wahl Dagmar Llewellyn, Douglas Blatchford NCAR Research Applications Lab NOAA Paleoclimatology Bureau of Reclamation
2 Upper Rio Grande Basin 2
3 Upper Rio Grande Basin Management goal: Early planning of allocations based on seasonal streamflow forecast Issues: Only mediocre forecast skill prior to critical allocation deadline in April Anecdotal evidence of systematic forecast biases in recent years End goals: Confirm systematic forecast bias Find cause Improve forecasts based on lessons learned 3
4 Motivation streamflow forecasting Apr-Jul streamflow Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2015 Forecast issue month 4
5 Motivation streamflow forecasting Apr-Jul streamflow Streamflow of interest Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug st week of April: allocations Forecast issue month 5
6 Motivation streamflow forecasting 1 st forecast (based on snowpack and weather climatology ) 90% Apr-Jul streamflow 50% 10% Streamflow of interest Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug st week of April: allocations Forecast issue month 6
7 Motivation streamflow forecasting 1 st forecast 2 nd 3 rd 4 th last forecast Apr-Jul streamflow Streamflow of interest Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug st week of April: allocations Forecast issue month 7
8 Motivation streamflow forecasting 1 st forecast 2 nd 3 rd 4 th last forecast Apr-Jul streamflow + Streamflow of interest Observed streamflow volume Apr-Jul Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug st week of April: allocations Forecast issue month 8
9 Motivation streamflow forecasting Streamflow forecast bounds (NRCS) and observed Apr-Jul value for Otowi Bridge, NM 9
10 Motivation streamflow forecasting Streamflow forecast bounds (NRCS) and observed Apr-Jul value for Otowi Bridge, NM Recent tendency towards overforecasting in early phase of the calendar year 10
11 Decreasing basin efficiency? Wateryear precipitation Wateryear streamflow (x3) 11
12 Decreasing basin efficiency? Wateryear precipitation Wateryear streamflow (x3) 12
13 Decreasing basin efficiency? Similar behavior observed in Upper Colorado basin Woodhouse et al. (2016) 13
14 Upper Rio Grande Basin Management goal: Early planning of allocations based on seasonal streamflow forecast Issues: Only mediocre forecast skill prior to critical allocation deadline in April Anecdotal evidence of systematic forecast biases in recent years Questions: How common are such trends? What role does temperature play? Is this important for forecasting? End goals: Confirm systematic forecast bias Find cause Improve forecasts based on lessons learned 14
15 Reconstructions r =
16 Reconstructions r =
17 Reconstructions r = 0.80 r =
18 Reconstructions r = 0.80 r = 0.78 r =
19 Reconstructions r = 0.80 Probability that this recent trend is the strongest in 445 years: 99.1% r = % r = % 19
20 Reconstructions 20
21 Role of temperature Median precipitation Median temperature 21
22 Role of temperature 22
23 Role of temperature 23
24 Role of temperature 24
25 Role of temperature Very low runoff ratio ~2.5-3 times more likely when temperatures are above-median than when they are below 25
26 Role of temperature 26
27 Role of temperature 27
28 Role of land use change 28
29 Role of temperature 29
30 Role of temperature 1980s 2000s 30
31 Circulation composites CESM 31
32 Circulation composites CESM 57% El Niño events 44% PDO > 1 38% La Niña events 38% PDO < -1 32
33 Upper Rio Grande Basin Management goal: Early planning of allocations based on seasonal streamflow forecast Issues: Only mediocre forecast skill prior to critical allocation deadline in April Anecdotal evidence of systematic forecast biases in recent years Questions: How common are such trends? Answers: Apparently not that common End goals: Confirm systematic forecast bias Find cause Improve forecasts based on lessons learned 33
34 Upper Rio Grande Basin Management goal: Early planning of allocations based on seasonal streamflow forecast Issues: Only mediocre forecast skill prior to critical allocation deadline in April Anecdotal evidence of systematic forecast biases in recent years Questions: How common are such trends? What role does temperature play? Answers: Apparently not that common Acts to make low runoff ratio years even lower End goals: Confirm systematic forecast bias Find cause Improve forecasts based on lessons learned 34
35 Upper Rio Grande Basin Management goal: Early planning of allocations based on seasonal streamflow forecast Issues: Only mediocre forecast skill prior to critical allocation deadline in April Anecdotal evidence of systematic forecast biases in recent years Questions: How common are such trends? What role does temperature play? Is this important for forecasting? Answers: Apparently not that common Acts to make low runoff ratio years even lower Adds additional skill End goals: Confirm systematic forecast bias Find cause Improve forecasts based on lessons learned 35
36 Thank you Lehner, F., E. R. Wahl, A. W. Wood, D. B. Blatchford, D. Llewellyn (submitted): Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective
37 Supplementary slides 37
38 Role of temperature Relationship mainly driven by low precipitation years 38
39 Internal variability or climate change or both? Water year precipitation trend Sea level pressure trend 39
40 Internal variability or climate change or both? Water year precipitation trend
41 Internal variability or climate change or both? Water year precipitation trend
42 Internal variability or climate change or both? Water year precipitation trend
43 Climate change: predictable? RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 Number of models (CMIP5) IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) 43
44 Climate change: predictable? Hatching = signal < 1 σ RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) 44
45 Internal variability: predictable? Wallace and Gutzler (1981) and others Atmospheric pressure indices are (anti-)correlated afar Modes of atmospheric circulation variability Emerge from a sufficiently large sample size Hoskins and Karoly (1981), Trenberth et al. (1998) and others Tropical heating is balanced by divergence aloft Pressure anomalies alter jet stream and incite Rossby waves Affects weather in mid-latitudes Barsugli and Battisti (1998) and others Coupling of ocean and atmosphere increases variance in both Deser et al. (2012) and others The butterfly effect works on decadal time scales, and not only on synoptic Barnes and Screen (2015), Shaw et al. (2016) and others Tug of war between opposing effects of climate change on mid-latitude jet position 45
46 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and ENSO 46
47 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and ENSO
48 PDO and ENSO teleconnections Correlation Observations M. Newman et al. (2016) 48
49 PDO and ENSO teleconnections Correlation Observations Newman et al. (2016) 49
50 PDO CESM Large Ensemble Ensemble member
51 PDO Pacemaker simulations Observations
52 PDO Pacemaker simulations Ensemble member Observations
53 PDO Pacemaker simulations Ensemble member
54 (Forced) internal variability Water year precipitation trend
55 (Forced) internal variability 56
56 Contributions from (forced) internal variability Pacemaker simulations Rio Grande basin Free-running simulations Observations 57
57 Contributions from (forced) internal variability Pacemaker simulations Rio Grande basin Free-running simulations Observations Confirms earlier results based solely on observations Hamlet et al. (2005) 58
58 Contributions from (forced) internal variability Rio Grande basin Observations 59
59 Rio Grande seasons 60
60 Tug of war 61
61 62
62 63
63 64
64 65
Drought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico
Drought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico David S. Gutzler University of New Mexico gutzler@unm.edu * The big drought of 2018 * Longer term challenges for water supply * Forecasting streamflow Elephant
More informationPresentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).
More informationRelative importance of the tropics, internal variability, and Arctic amplification on midlatitude climate and weather
Relative importance of the tropics, internal variability, and Arctic amplification on midlatitude climate and weather Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center College Park, Maryland, USA Workshop on Arctic
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through
More informationClimate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector. Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist
Climate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist Presented at EPA Extreme Events and Climate Adaptation Planning Workshop June 3, 2015 Water Year Precip. % of Average
More informationImpacts of modes of climate variability, monsoons, ENSO, annular modes
Impacts of modes of climate variability, monsoons, ENSO, annular modes Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti National Institute for Space Research INPE Modes of variability- preferred patterns of variability.
More informationUS Drought Status. Droughts 1/17/2013. Percent land area affected by Drought across US ( ) Dev Niyogi Associate Professor Dept of Agronomy
Droughts US Drought Status Dev Niyogi Associate Professor Dept of Agronomy Deptof Earth Atmospheric Planetary Sciences Indiana State Climatologist Purdue University LANDSURFACE.ORG iclimate.org climate@purdue.edu
More informationAtmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting
Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV Data to Seasonal Forecast Products 18 21 January 2011 Tokyo, Japan Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting Shotaro Tanaka Climate
More informationExtreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S.
Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University March 7, 2016 Causes of Extreme Rainfall
More informationLa Niña impacts on global seasonal weather anomalies: The OLR perspective. Andrew Chiodi and Ed Harrison
La Niña impacts on global seasonal weather anomalies: The OLR perspective Andrew Chiodi and Ed Harrison Outline Motivation Impacts of the El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal weather anomalies
More informationInflow Forecasting for Hydro Catchments. Ross Woods and Alistair McKerchar NIWA Christchurch
Inflow Forecasting for Hydro Catchments Ross Woods and Alistair McKerchar NIWA Christchurch Inflows Water flowing into hydro storages Usually measured by monitoring the levels and outflows from hydro storages
More informationInterpre'ng Model Results
Interpre'ng Model Results Clara Deser Na'onal Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO CESM Tutorial, 12 August 2016 Interpre'ng Model Results 1) What kind of model? 2) What kind of simula'on? 3) What
More informationDelayed Response of the Extratropical Northern Atmosphere to ENSO: A Revisit *
Delayed Response of the Extratropical Northern Atmosphere to ENSO: A Revisit * Ruping Mo Pacific Storm Prediction Centre, Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada Corresponding author s address: Ruping
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Ocean Warmth Headed into Summer Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationAPPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES
APPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering For presentation at Workshop on Regional Climate Research NCAR
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño
More informationENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency
ENSO Outlook by JMA Hiroyuki Sugimoto El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Outline 1. ENSO impacts on the climate 2. Current Conditions 3. Prediction by JMA/MRI-CGCM 4. Summary
More informationSeasonality of the Jet Response to Arctic Warming
Seasonality of the Jet Response to Arctic Warming Bryn Ronalds Adv: Elizabeth Barnes CVCWG Meeting: March 2, 27 The story: Midlatitude jets are fundamental to weather and climate It is generally agreed
More informationP3.6 THE INFLUENCE OF PNA AND NAO PATTERNS ON TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE MIDWEST DURING FOUR RECENT El NINO EVENTS: A STATISTICAL STUDY
P3.6 THE INFLUENCE OF PNA AND NAO PATTERNS ON TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE MIDWEST DURING FOUR RECENT El NINO EVENTS: A STATISTICAL STUDY Dayton Vincent 2, Sam Lashley 1, Sam O Connor 2, Michael Skipper
More informationTrends in Climate Teleconnections and Effects on the Midwest
Trends in Climate Teleconnections and Effects on the Midwest Don Wuebbles Zachary Zobel Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois, Urbana November 11, 2015 Date Name of Meeting 1 Arctic
More informationReservoir Operations (FBO) (FIRO)
A Methodology for Adaptive Water Management Forecast-Based Forecast-Informed Operations Reservoir Operations (FBO) (FIRO) Mike McMahon Senior Hydro-Meteorologist/Climate Science/Resiliency Lead - HDR Engineering
More informationTHE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION, REVISITED. Matt Newman, Mike Alexander, and Dima Smirnov CIRES/University of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD
THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION, REVISITED Matt Newman, Mike Alexander, and Dima Smirnov CIRES/University of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD PDO and ENSO ENSO forces remote changes in global oceans via the
More informationClimate Variability. Andy Hoell - Earth and Environmental Systems II 13 April 2011
Climate Variability Andy Hoell - andrew_hoell@uml.edu Earth and Environmental Systems II 13 April 2011 The Earth System Earth is made of several components that individually change throughout time, interact
More informationIntroduction to Climate ~ Part I ~
2015/11/16 TCC Seminar JMA Introduction to Climate ~ Part I ~ Shuhei MAEDA (MRI/JMA) Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA) 1 Outline of the lecture 1. Climate System (
More informationInvestigate the influence of the Amazon rainfall on westerly wind anomalies and the 2002 Atlantic Nino using QuikScat, Altimeter and TRMM data
Investigate the influence of the Amazon rainfall on westerly wind anomalies and the 2002 Atlantic Nino using QuikScat, Altimeter and TRMM data Rong Fu 1, Mike Young 1, Hui Wang 2, Weiqing Han 3 1 School
More informationTHE SYNERGY OF HISTORY AND EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION FOR ENHANCED DROUGHT AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT
THE SYNERGY OF HISTORY AND EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION FOR ENHANCED DROUGHT AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT Kamran Emami kkemami@gmail.com Workshop on History of water crisis, old and recent issues (WG HIST) 1 Presentation
More informationGlobal climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues
www.bsc.es Ispra, 23 May 2017 Global climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes BSC Earth Sciences Department and ICREA Many of the ideas in this presentation
More informationThe South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative Phase 2 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) is a three-year (2009 2012), $9 million research program investigating the causes and
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts
ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts Medium-Range (0-day) Partial coupling Extended + Monthly Fully coupled Seasonal Forecasts Fully coupled Atmospheric model Atmospheric model Wave model Wave
More informationKey Findings & Implications
A Tree-Ring Based Assessment of Synchronous Extreme Streamflow Episodes in the Upper Colorado & Salt-Verde-Tonto River Basins Key Findings & Implications August 10, 2005 Workshop A Collaborative Project
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: More climate models! Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: West Pacific Typhoons Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review
More informationClimate Variability. Eric Salathé. Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. Thanks to Nathan Mantua
Climate Variability Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Thanks to Nathan Mantua Northwest Climate: the mean Factors that influence local/regional
More informationOutline. Precipitation. How would you describe precipitation patterns in your area? Bottom line: one-page summary
Outline Precipitation June 13, 2013 Phoenix, AZ Measuring rainfall Patterns of precipitation in time and space Predicting precipitation Patterns related to extreme events (floods & drought) Paleo-climate
More informationSeasonal forecasting with the NMME with a focus on Africa
Seasonal forecasting with the NMME with a focus on Africa Bill Merryfield Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Victoria, BC Canada School on Climate System Prediction and Regional
More informationSkillful climate forecasts using model-analogs
Skillful climate forecasts using model-analogs Hui Ding 1,2, Matt Newman 1,2, Mike Alexander 2, and Andrew Wittenberg 3 1. CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder 2. NOAA ESRL PSD 3. NOAA GFDL NCEP operational
More information(1) Arctic Sea Ice Predictability,
(1) Arctic Sea Ice Predictability, (2) It s Long-term Loss and Implications for Ocean Conditions Marika Holland, NCAR With contributions from: David Bailey, Alex Jahn, Jennifer Kay, Laura Landrum, Steve
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: 2018 Wildfire Season Update Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationRecent Analysis and Improvements of the Statistical Water Supply Forecasts for the Upper Klamath Lake Basin, Oregon and California, USA
Recent Analysis and Improvements of the Statistical Water Supply Forecasts for the Upper Klamath Lake Basin, Oregon and California, USA Jolyne Lea and David Garen, USDA/NRCS, Adam Kennedy, Portland State
More informationPUBLICATIONS. Geophysical Research Letters. Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective
PUBLICATIONS Geophysical Research Letters RESEARCH LETTER Key Points: The decreasing runoff efficiency trend from 1986 to 2015 in the Upper Rio Grande basin is unprecedented in the last 445 years Very
More informationSouth Eastern Australian Rainfall in relation to the Mean Meridional Circulation
South Eastern Australian Rainfall in relation to the Mean Meridional Circulation Bertrand Timbal, Hanh Nguyen, Robert Fawcett, Wasyl Drosdowsky and Chris Lucas CAWCR / Bureau of Meteorology Long-term SEA
More informationlecture 11 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Part II
lecture 11 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Part II SYSTEM MEMORY: OCEANIC WAVE PROPAGATION ASYMMETRY BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN The atmosphere and ocean are not symmetrical in their responses
More information1. INTRODUCTION 2. HIGHLIGHTS
Bulletin Issue January 2017 Issue Number: ICPAC/03/44 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Seasonal Bulletin, Review for October to December (OND) Season 2016 For referencing within this bulletin,
More informationWinter Climate Forecast
Winter 2018-2019 Climate Forecast 26 th Winter Weather Meeting, OMSI and Oregon AMS, Portland Kyle Dittmer Hydrologist-Meteorologist Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Portland, Oregon Professor
More informationEl Niño / Southern Oscillation
El Niño / Southern Oscillation Student Packet 2 Use contents of this packet as you feel appropriate. You are free to copy and use any of the material in this lesson plan. Packet Contents Introduction on
More informationWeather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio
Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Outline A Look Back At 2014 Spring 2015 So Far El Niño Update Climate Prediction
More informationConference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans November Fall-to-winter changes in the El Nino teleconnection
1968-19 Conference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans 17-20 November 2008 Fall-to-winter changes in the El Nino teleconnection BLADE MENDOZA Ileana Universitat de Barcelona, Department D'Astronomia
More informationWinter Climate Forecast
Winter 2017-2018 Climate Forecast 25 th Winter Weather Meeting, OMSI and Oregon AMS, Portland Kyle Dittmer Hydrologist-Meteorologist Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Portland, Oregon Professor
More informationHow can we explain possible human contribution to weather events?
WMO-IPCC Tokyo workshop for weather presenters, November 11, 2015 How can we explain possible human contribution to weather events? Masahiro Watanabe Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University
More informationDifferent impacts of Northern, Tropical and Southern volcanic eruptions on the tropical Pacific SST in the last millennium
Different impacts of Northern, Tropical and Southern volcanic eruptions on the tropical Pacific SST in the last millennium Meng Zuo, Wenmin Man, Tianjun Zhou Email: zuomeng@lasg.iap.ac.cn Sixth WMO International
More informationPredictability of the duration of La Niña
Predictability of the duration of La Niña Pedro DiNezio University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (UTIG) CESM Winter Meeting February 9, 2016 Collaborators: C. Deser 1 and Y. Okumura 2 1 NCAR, 2 UTIG
More informationGPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office
GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere
More informationUse of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America
Use of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America Christopher L. Castro,, Stephen Bieda III, and Francina Dominguez University of Arizona Regional Climate Forum for Northwest
More informationSierra Weather and Climate Update
Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of
More informationInitialized decadal climate predictions focusing on the Pacific Gerald Meehl
Initialized decadal climate predictions focusing on the Pacific Gerald Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder Colorado Following Zhang, Wallace and Battisti (1997) the Interdecadal Pacific
More informationaccumulations. The annual maximum SWE and the rate of snowpack accumulation and
Exploratory analysis of snowpack in Washington State Nian She and Daniel Basketfield Seattle Public Utilities, Seattle, Washington Abstract. Snow water equivalent (SWE) is used to measure seasonal snowpack
More informationClimate change and snowfed rivers in southwestern United States
Climate change and snowfed rivers in southwestern United States Climatic and hydrologic setting Declining snowpack declining streamflow? Uncertainties in climate impacts assessments David S. Gutzler University
More information2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care
2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days
More information2016 Hurricane Season Preview
2016 Hurricane Season Preview Eric Uhlhorn, Ph.D. 1 2 Recap of 2015 Hurricane Season - El Niño played a significant role in activity - Atlantic activity was slightly below normal 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes,
More informationTROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS
Notes of the tutorial lectures for the Natural Sciences part by Alice Grimm Fourth lecture TROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS Anomalous tropical SST Anomalous convection Anomalous latent heat source Anomalous
More informationSeasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections
Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections Doug Smith Walter Orr Roberts memorial lecture, 9 th June 2015 Contents Motivation Practical issues
More informationClimate System Monitoring
Climate System Monitoring Climate Prediction Division of JMA iroshi asegawa (h_hasegawa@met.kishou.go.jp) 1 Contents What is the climate system? Purpose of climate system monitoring View points for monitoring
More informationNortheast River Forecast Center s
Northeast River Forecast Center s Apr 13 th Spring Outlook Brought to you by: Edward Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Overview to Include: Potential flood outlook convective/synoptic conditions
More informationColorado weather and climate update: a bit more than halfway through the water year (Or: What s going on with the weather?? )
Colorado weather and climate update: a bit more than halfway through the water year (Or: What s going on with the weather?? ) Russ S. Schumacher Colorado State Climatologist Director, Colorado Climate
More informationHurricane Risk: Importance of Climate Time Scale and Uncertainty
Hurricane Risk: Importance of Climate Time Scale and Uncertainty FCHLPM Workshop Peter S. Dailey, Ph.D. July 23-24, 2009 2009 AIR WORLDWIDE CORPORATION 1 Agenda Importance of Understanding Climate Change,
More informationAssessment of the Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events on Rainfall Amount in South-Western Nigeria
2016 Pearl Research Journals Journal of Physical Science and Environmental Studies Vol. 2 (2), pp. 23-29, August, 2016 ISSN 2467-8775 Full Length Research Paper http://pearlresearchjournals.org/journals/jpses/index.html
More informationSupplementary appendix
Supplementary appendix This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. We post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Lowe R, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Petrova D, et al.
More informationInterpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System
Interpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System Hiroshi OHNO Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)/ Climate Prediction Division of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Procedure of Seasonal Forecast (1) 1.
More informationGlobal Climate Patterns and Their Impacts on North American Weather
Global Climate Patterns and Their Impacts on North American Weather By Julie Malmberg and Jessica Lowrey, Western Water Assessment Introduction This article provides a broad overview of various climate
More informationHail and the Climate System: Large Scale Environment Relationships for the Continental United States
Hail and the Climate System: Large Scale Environment Relationships for the Continental United States 1979-2012 John T. Allen jallen@iri.columbia.edu Co-author: Michael K. Tippett WWOSC 2014, Thursday August
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. January 23, 2015 Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Services
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING January 23, 2015 Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Services Today Climate Forecast Basics Review of recent climate forecasts and conditions CPC Forecasts and observations
More informationWhat does the El Niño have in store for the Upper Colorado Basin?
What does the 2015-16 El Niño have in store for the Upper Colorado Basin? Klaus Wolter NOAA-Earth System Research Lab & University of Colorado at Boulder-CIRES klaus.wolter@noaa.gov El Niño: Current situation
More informationLecture 28. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) part 5
Lecture 28 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) part 5 Understanding the phenomenon Until the 60s the data was so scant that it seemed reasonable to consider El Nino as an occasional departure from normal
More informationRegional Climate Variability in the Western U.S.: Observed vs. Anticipated
Regional Climate Variability in the Western U.S.: Observed vs. Anticipated Klaus Wolter University of Colorado at Boulder, klaus.wolter@noaa.gov Kudos to Joe Barsugli and Jon Eischeid Seasonal Precipitation
More informationAn Introduction to Coupled Models of the Atmosphere Ocean System
An Introduction to Coupled Models of the Atmosphere Ocean System Jonathon S. Wright jswright@tsinghua.edu.cn Atmosphere Ocean Coupling 1. Important to climate on a wide range of time scales Diurnal to
More informationHigh-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes
High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes ALLISON MICHAELIS, GARY LACKMANN, & WALT ROBINSON Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North
More informationENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM
ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM El Nino is still hanging on but likely not for very long. Warmer than normal water can still be seen along the equator in the tropical Pacific. It is even warmer in the
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationAugust Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012 Issued: 6 th August 2012 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationPRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response
PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin
More informationIntroduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast
Introduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast TCC Training Seminar on One-month Forecast on 13 November 2018 10:30 11:00 1 Typical flow of making one-month forecast Observed
More informationClimate Projections and Energy Security
NOAA Research Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division Climate Projections and Energy Security Andy Hoell and Jim Wilczak Research Meteorologists, Physical Sciences Division 7 June 2016
More informationATMOSPHERIC MODELLING. GEOG/ENST 3331 Lecture 9 Ahrens: Chapter 13; A&B: Chapters 12 and 13
ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING GEOG/ENST 3331 Lecture 9 Ahrens: Chapter 13; A&B: Chapters 12 and 13 Agenda for February 3 Assignment 3: Due on Friday Lecture Outline Numerical modelling Long-range forecasts Oscillations
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationThe Texas drought. Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA
The 2011-2012 Texas drought Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA 1 outline Evolution of the 2011-2012 Texas drought Climatology and historical perspective The 2011 drought Onset Feedback
More informationDynamics of the Extratropical Response to Tropical Heating
Regional and Local Climate Modeling and Analysis Research Group R e L o C l i m Dynamics of the Extratropical Response to Tropical Heating (1) Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WegCenter) and
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationGlobal Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions
Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions Prepared by Climate Prediction Center, NCEP November 6, 2009 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/godas/ This project to deliver
More informationThe 2009 Hurricane Season Overview
The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview Jae-Kyung Schemm Gerry Bell Climate Prediction Center NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP 1 Overview outline 1. Current status for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific basins
More informationTeleconnections and Climate predictability
Southern Hemisphere Teleconnections and Climate predictability Carolina Vera CIMA/CONICET University of Buenos Aires, UMI IFAECI/CNRS Buenos Aires, Argentina Motivation Large scale circulation variability
More informationForecasting. Theory Types Examples
Forecasting Theory Types Examples How Good Are Week Out Weather Forecasts? For forecasts greater than nine days out, weather forecasters do WORSE than the climate average forecast. Why is there predictability
More informationENSO and U.S. severe convective storm activity
ENSO and U.S. severe convective storm activity Michael K. Tippett Columbia University Willis Research Network Autumn meeting Nov 1, 2017 Summary What is ENSO? Unusual warming or cooling of tropical Pacific
More informationThe ECMWF Extended range forecasts
The ECMWF Extended range forecasts Laura.Ferranti@ecmwf.int ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Slide 1 TC January 2014 Slide 1 The operational forecasting system l High resolution forecast: twice per day 16 km 91-level,
More informationUsing a high-resolution ensemble modeling method to inform risk-based decision-making at Taylor Park Dam, Colorado
Using a high-resolution ensemble modeling method to inform risk-based decision-making at Taylor Park Dam, Colorado Michael J. Mueller 1, Kelly Mahoney 2, Kathleen Holman 3, David Gochis 4 1 Cooperative
More informationTCC Training Seminar on 17 th Nov 2015 JMA s Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) and their Products for Climate Forecast.
TCC Training Seminar on 17 th Nov 2015 JMA s Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) and their Products for Climate Forecast Takashi Yamada Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency 1 Contents
More informationMarch was 3rd warmest month in satellite record
April 4, 2016 Vol. 25, No. 12 For Additional Information: Dr. John Christy, (256) 961-7763 john.christy@nsstc.uah.edu Dr. Roy Spencer, (256) 961-7960 roy.spencer@nsstc.uah.edu Global Temperature Report:
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics
More informationESM development at the Met Office Hadley Centre
ENSEMBLES RT1/RT2A Meeting ECMWF, 8-9 th Jun 2006 ESM development at the Met Office Hadley Centre Tim Johns, and HadGEM model development teams Crown copyright Page 1 Model Development Timeline: HadGEM1a/GEM2/GEM2ES
More information