Improving Operational Use of Scanning Rain Radar Estimates with Vertically Pointing Radar
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1 Improving Operational Use of Scanning Rain Radar Estimates with Vertically Pointing Radar Luke Sutherland-Stacey Weather Radar NZ Tom Joseph Mott MacDonald Geoff Austin Weather Radar NZ Ken Williams, Nick Brown, Auckland Council Healthy Waters Department
2 Scanning the atmosphere to do useful stuff
3 Talk Overview 1. What we ve done so far with Rain Radar 2. Motivation for better rainfall measurements 3. Technical Problem Z-R Relationship, sampling scale mm 4. How does vertically pointing radar help? 5. What it means for Auckland Council. 6. What it means for other Councils in NZ.
4 1. What We ve Done So Far.
5 Like, So Last Year! Live stream Metservice Rain Radar to online platform Corrected radar depth accumulation from gauge based bias adjustment Convert to ARI As real time as the gauge network is
6 2. What We Want to Do
7 We d like to predict events like this
8 Forecasting
9 Uncertainty increases every time we extrapolate Flood Forecasting Numerical Weather Prediction (90 minutes 6 hours) Radar now casting (0-90 minutes) Real time radar
10 Reducing Uncertainty in Base Data High resolution localised radar? Real time VPR corrected? Climatic average VPR corrected Confidence in data High Increased Same (but faster) Situational Awareness Best Better Good Gauge corrected radar Reduced Increased Rain Gauges High Low
11 3. Technical Problem - Z-R Relationship - Sampling Scale 4. How does Vertical Pointing Radar (VPR) help?
12 Caution.
13 How did we get there? - more QC. Requires very careful calibration of the NZ Metservice radar Difficult to compare radar with rain gauges because of the C-band Radar Sampling Volume ~125x1000x1000m Sampling Scale Problem. X-band Radar Sampling Volume ~100x100x100m Local X-band 100x100x pixels, every 20 sec Rain Gauge Sampling Area 20cm dia., not within either volume, and possibly not even under the volume Local X-band 125x1000x pixels every 7.5 minutes
14 How did we get there? - QC. Calibrate the VPR by comparison with a colocated rain gauge, Calibrate the C-band radar by comparison with the coincident VPR measurements Requires very careful calibration of the NZ Metservice radar Easier to compare C-band radar, and rain gauges with Vertically pointing radar.
15 How did we get there? - QC. Calibrate the VPR by comparison with a colocated rain gauge, Calibrate the C-band radar by comparison with the coincident VPR measurements Requires very careful calibration of the NZ Metservice radar The correlation between VPR and gauge measurements is excellent.
16 How did we get there? - QC. Calibrate the VPR by comparison with a colocated rain gauge, Calibrate the C-band radar by comparison with the coincident VPR measurements Requires very careful calibration of the NZ Metservice radar Vertically Pointing Radar addresses the differences in the measurements at the ground and aloft,
17 How did we get there? - QC. Calibrate the VPR by comparison with a colocated rain gauge, Calibrate the C-band radar by comparison with the coincident VPR measurements Requires very careful calibration of the NZ Metservice radar Vertically Pointing Radar addresses the differences in the measurements at the ground and aloft, allowing for meaningful comparisons with the Metservice Radar, and identification of calibration bias.
18 How did we get there? - QC. Calibrate the VPR by comparison with a colocated rain gauge, Calibrate the C-band radar by comparison with the coincident VPR measurements Requires very careful calibration of the NZ Metservice radar Proper calibration of the C-band radar results in better gauge correction results - remember there is large uncertainty associated with the Sampling scale problem and we haven't actually resolved this!
19 5. What does it mean for Auckland Council?
20 Customer Benefits * Auckland Emergency Management * Stormwater Operations * Watercare Operations * Better facts and figures for customers * Helping our customers understand and prepare for events
21 Addressing uncertainty at the base level Flood Forecasting Numerical Weather Prediction (90 minutes 6 hours) Radar now casting (0-90 minutes) Real time radar
22 A significant step High resolution localised radar? Real time VPR corrected? Climatic average VPR corrected Confidence in data High Increased Same (but faster) Situational Awareness Best Better Good Gauge corrected radar Reduced Increased Rain Gauges High Low
23 Next steps for Auckland Council: We are identifying improvements in rain estimates from radar. Now we need to try and better identify the uncertainty. We re using something that existed in academia, and operationalizing it with real benefit.
24 5. For other Councils
25 For other Councils Significant radar network exists. Radar is not a silver bullet coverage and geographic limitations. It is useful. VPR can help overcome some limitations There s still a lot of work needed for the ultimate goal of forecasting with some certainty.
26 Questions, but only simple ones please. I m not the guy with the PhD here.
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