What is Climate Change? How is it Manifested in the Western U.S.?
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1 What is Climate Change? How is it Manifested in the Western U.S.? Kelly T. Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Climate Change Science for Effective Resource Management and Public Policy in the Western United States EPSCoR Western Tri-State Consortium UNLV Las Vegas 2013 March 27-28
2 What s all the fuss about??? 316 ppmv % 395 January 2013
3 The Planetary Radiation Budget Net incoming = 235 W/m 2 Net outgoing = 235 W / m 2 IPCC AR4, Kiehl and Trenberth (1997)
4 How much energy? 60 watt light bulb Mostly heat (infrared radiation) 2 x CO 2 forcing increase is about 4 W / m 2 +/- 10 % 4 W / m 2 is about one bulb per 4x4 m Earth surface covers about 510 trillion square meters Place 30 trillion 60-watt bulbs uniformly over the earth As of 2013, about 19 trillion in place
5 Not a climate issue (not too much). But it is (very much) a carbon issue. A major issue, by itself. Warming influences Cooling influences Greenhouse gases CO2 - carbon dioxide ** (about 2/3 of total effect) CH4 - methane N20 - nitrous oxide 03 - ozone CFC - chloroflourocarbons Pollution and most aerosols Direct reflection Make clouds brighter Occasional volcanoes Some land use changes (minor) Some kinds of soot Some land use changes (minor) Solar activity (minor) ** Side Note. Ocean Acidification.
6 MODIS
7 090327:1925 GMT Redoubt Eruption From Homer AK. Jonathan Dehn.
8 History of Atmospheric Forcings Warming Hansen et al, Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science, 308, Cooling Radiative Factors that Control Global Climate
9 Gazing into the future...
10 Western Great Basin Temp and Precip Projections One style of presentation
11 Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, USGS / Scripps start Dettinger MD From climate change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st Century California. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science. Vol. 3, Issue 1, (March 2005), Article 4.
12 Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, USGS / Scripps Dettinger MD From climate change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st Century California. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science. Vol. 3, Issue 1, (March 2005), Article 4.
13 Central Great Basin Temp and Precip Projections Another style of presentation
14 Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn East Central Nevada Projected Temperature Changes ( C ) Early 21 st Middle 21 st Late 21 st Figure: John Abatzoglou
15 East Central Nevada Projected Precipitation Changes ( % ) Early 21 st Middle 21 st Late 21 st Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn Figure: John Abatzoglou
16 Temperature Change (~ 2055) minus Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142. Draft January Part 9. Climate of the Contiguous United States
17 Average of 19 climate models years from 2013 Figure by Gabriel Vecchi. es/div/ocp/drought/scienc e.shtml R. Seager, M.F. Ting, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, N. Naik, Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, DOI: /science
18 Precipitation change (~2055) percent change from Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142. Draft January Part 9. Climate of the Contiguous United States
19
20 53 Western United States (11 states) Annual Jan-Dec Temperature Red: Individual Years. Blue: 11-year running mean. Units: Deg F. Data from NOAA Cooperative Network thru Dec Annual Mean Temperatuire ( F ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
21 Annual from NOAA NCDC
22 Nevada Climate Tracker (state average only for now) With thanks to John Abatzoglou
23 Nevada Statewide Temperature Annual Calendar Year
24 Nevada Statewide Maximum Temperature Annual Calendar Year
25 Nevada Statewide Minimum Temperature Annual Calendar Year
26 United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
27 thru Feb United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
28 Nevada Statewide Precipitation Water Year Oct - Sep 1895 / 1896 thru 2011 / 2012
29 Trends in North America Surface Temperature CRUTS3.1 (thanks to John Abatzoglou) Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn Deg C / Decade Redmond and Abatzoglou, submitted 2013 Current Climate and Recent Trends. Ch 2. Climate Change in North America. George Ohring, ed. Springer.
30 March 10, / 1800 mm 55 / 1400 mm 12 / 300 mm 7.5 / 170 mm
31 North American Freezing Level Tracker
32 Annual mean freezing level over Ely Nevada NCEP Reanalysis
33 Winter Freezing Level over Ely Nevada Spring Summer Autumn
34 White Mountain Summit (14,245 ft) Summit Station Measured Daily Temp vs Temp Estimated from 600mb Global Reanalysis Correlation Coefficient 30-day running mean Frequency Distribution of errors Estimated minus Observed For NPS Southern Sierra Project Thanks to Matt Fearon
35 Reconstructed Annual Temperature of White Mountain Summit (14245 ft) based on NCAR/NCEP Global Reanalysis ~4 years of overlap Thanks to Matt Fearon
36 Trends in North America Freezing Level Elevation CRUTS3.1 (thanks to John Abatzoglou) Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn meters / Decade Redmond and Abatzoglou, submitted 2013 Current Climate and Recent Trends. Ch 2. Climate Change in North America. George Ohring, ed. Springer.
37 Trends in North America 700 mb ( ~10,000 ft) Temperature CRUTS3.1 (thanks to John Abatzoglou) Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn Deg C / Decade Redmond and Abatzoglou, submitted 2013 Current Climate and Recent Trends. Ch 2. Climate Change in North America. George Ohring, ed. Springer.
38 Water Year Precipitation ( inches ) Western United States (11 states) Water Year (Oct-Sep) Precipitation. Blue: Individual Years. Red: 11-Year Running Mean. Units: Inches. Data source NOAA cooperative network thru Feb End Year Western Regional Climate Center
39 15 Western United States (11 states) Winter (Oct-Mar) Precipitation. Blue: Individual Years. Red: 11-Year Running Mean. Units: Inches. Data source NOAA cooperative network thru Feb Oct - Mar Precipitation ( inches ) End Year Western Regional Climate Center
40 Trends in North America Station Precipitation CRUTS3.1 (thanks to John Abatzoglou) Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn Percent / Decade Redmond and Abatzoglou, submitted 2013 Current Climate and Recent Trends. Ch 2. Climate Change in North America. George Ohring, ed. Springer.
41 Water Year Oct 2010 Thru 30 Sep 2011
42 Water Year Oct 2011 Thru 30 Sep 2012
43 Precipitation Water Year To Date (Mar 22, 2013) Temperature
44 Long Draw Fire 557,648 acres as of July 17 Oregon s largest fire ever MODIS 1 km 2012 July 11
45 Long Draw Fire SE Oregon 2012 July 24 Jamie Francis, Oregonian
46 Long Draw Fire SE Oregon 2012 July 24 Jamie Francis, Oregonian
47 Acres burned U.S. Fires through December 31, 2012 Values after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in Ave from = 6.08 M acres. Number of acres Year Western Regional Climate Center Source: National Interagency Fire Center
48 Sep 28, 1999 Sep 26, 2000 Sep 25, 2001 Sep 24, 2002 Sep 30, 2003 Sep 21, 2004
49 Sep 27, 2005 Sep 26, 2006 Sep 25, 2007 Sep 30, 2008 Sep 29, 2009 Sep 28, 2010
50 Sep 30, 2008 Sep 29, 2009 Sep 28, 2010 Sep 27, 2011 Sep 25, 2012 Mar 19, 2013
51 Jan - Dec 1934 A New Tool WRCC web pages Monthly 4 km PRISM data T, P, Palmer, SPI, SPEI 1-12 months current Maps and Time Series Updated monthly
52 Idaho Nevada New Mexico WestWide Drought Tracker West-Wide (or Fine Scale) Drought Tracker Palmer Drought Severity Index August
53 Flow Projections Temperature increase is equivalent to Precipitation decrease Colorado River at Lees Ferry Decline of 2-9 % per degree C Decline of 1-5 % per degree F Or, for +3 C rise by 2060, Best estimate: % decline Vano, Das, Lettenmaier, Hydrologic Sensitivities of Colorado River Runoff to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature. J Hydrometeorology, 13, DOI: /JHM-D
54 Lake Powell Storage Through March 22, 2013 Currently 49 % full (capacity MAF) Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005
55 Lake Powell Elevation Through March 22, 2013 Water level on Mar 3, 2011 was ft, ft below full. Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full. Source:
56 2013 Mar 1 Powell 49 % Mead 53% Powell WY2011 fcst inflow is 54 % of average (Apr-July 54 %)
57 Lake Mead, October 2007 Photo by Ken Dewey
58 Lake Powell Apr-Jul Inflow Revised normal drops by 11 % 7927 KAF 7158 KAF Idaho Example, Too. Snake River near Heise. drop by 9 %
59 Lessons from History. Colorado River Flow. Lees Ferry. Reconstructed 762 thru 2005 A.D. Red: Gauged record. Blue: Reconstructed record. 20-Year moving averages. Meko, D.M., C.A. Woodhouse, C.H. Baisan, T. Knight, J.J. Lukas, M.K. Hughes, and M.W. Salzer, Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River basin. Geophysical Research Letters 34m L10705, doi: /2007GL029988
60 The Climate We Remember Extremes
61
62
63 72 Las Vegas Airport. Mean annual temperature. Units: Deg F. Data from Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-yr running mean. 71 Mean Annual Temp ( F ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
64 83.0 Las Vegas Airport. Average Annual Maximum Temperature. Units: Deg F. Data from Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-yr running mean. Average Annual Tmax ( F ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
65 Annual Min Temp ( F ) Las Vegas Airport. Mean Annual Min Temperture. Units: Deg F. Data from Blue: Individual years. Red: 9-yr running mean Year Western Regional Climate Center
66 Las Vegas Airport. Annual extreme high max temperature. Units: Deg F. Data from Annual Extreme Max ( F ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
67 55 Las Vegas Airport. Annual extreme lowest max temperature. Units: Deg F. July thru June. Data from thru Annual lowest Tmax ( F ) Ending Year Western Regional Climate Center
68 35 Las Vegas Airport. Annual extreme low min temperature. Units: Deg F. July thru June. Data from thru Lowest Winter Temperature ( F ) Ending Year Western Regional Climate Center
69 Extreme high min ( F ) Las Vegas Airport. Annual extreme high min temperature. Units: Deg F. Data from Year Western Regional Climate Center
70 How much water can the atmosphere hold? Clausius-Clapeyron relation for plane (flat) water surface Saturation vapor pressure increases % per 5 C increase
71 Precipitable Water Maximum Values 7 CMIP5 Models Present mm Future / Percent increase Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Climate Change. Kunkel, Karl, Easterling, Redmond, Young, Yin, Hennon Geophysical Research Letters
72 3.00 Las Vegas Airport. Annual maximum 1-day precipitation. Units: Deg F. Data from Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-yr running mean. Wettest single day ( inches ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
73 3.00 Las Vegas Airport. Extreme max 2-day precipitation. Units: Inches. Data from Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-yr running mean. Wettest 2 cons. days ( in ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
74 3.00 Las Vegas Airport. Annual maximum 3-day precipitation. Units: Inches. Data from Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-yr running mean. Wettest 3 cons days ( in ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
75 3.00 Las Vegas Airport. Annual maximum 4-day precipitation. Units: Inches. Data from Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-yr running mean. Wettest 4 cons days ( in ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
76 3.00 Las Vegas Airport. Annual maximum 7-day precipitation. Units: Inches. Data from Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-yr running mean. Wettest 7 cons days ( in ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
77 3.50 Las Vegas Airport. Annual maximum 10-day precipitation. Units: Inches. Data from Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-yr running mean. Wettest 10 cons days ( in ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
78 4.00 Las Vegas Airport. Annual extreme 20-day precipitation. Units: Inches. Data from Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-yr running mean. Wettest 20 cons days ( in ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
79 5.00 Las Vegas Airport. Annual extreme 30-day precipitation. Units: Inches. Data from Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-yr running mean. Wettest cons 30 days ( in ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
80
81 1 - Year Return Value Trends in 1-Day Exceedance Values 2 - Year Return for Precipitation. 5 - Year Return Southwest USA Year Return 25 - Year Return 50 - Year Return Year Return Value Geoffrey M Bonnin, Kazungu Maitaria, Michael Yekta Trends in Rainfall Exceedances in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47(6),
82 Bonnin et al, Figure 6.
83 Observed difference in extreme event precipitable water: minus (Kunkel, AMS 2011)
84 The Global Average Temperature Can Change Fairly Rapidly Microwave Sounding Unit Daily Temperatures 2011, 2012, 2013 thru Mar 22 The likely suspect: Clouds. Half-Degree C variations in 1-2 weeks
85 Climate Complexity Our ability to predict aspect of this system is not as hopeless as it might seem! Stitched Image IR, 2013 Mar GMT
86 How would climate change actually be played out? 50 years = 18,262 days = 438,291 hours Fluctuations in climate will be experienced through weather
87 Elko Daily Temperatures Past ~387 days 2012 Jan Jan 21
88 Elko Daily Temperatures Past ~752 days 2011 Jan Jan 21
89 Elko Daily Temperatures Past ~3673 days 2003 Jan Jan 21
90 Elko Daily Temperatures Past ~18283 days 1963 Jan Jan 21
91 Elko Daily Precipitation Past ~387 days 2012 Jan Jun 21
92 Elko Daily Precipitation Past ~752 days 2011 Jan Jan 21
93 Elko Daily Precipitation Past ~3673 days 2003 Jan Jan 21
94 Elko Daily Precipitation Past ~18283 days About 3500 days with 0.01 or more 1963 Jan Jan 21
95 One of 36 ensembles (models/runs) 9 CMIP3, A2, Annual T, Tahoe City. Individual and 7-year running mean. Smooth rise not expected! 8 Mean Annual Temperature ( C ) Year Data Thanks to Justin Huntington
96 10 6 Models, CMIP-3, A2, Tahoe City. 7-year running means, annual Tave. Runs 5, 9, 11, 20, 28, 36. Annual Mean Temperature ( C ) Year Data Thanks to Justin Huntington
97 Climate Fluctuates on Different Time Scales for Different Reasons IRI Time Scales Map Room Exploratory Tool Slowly Changing Trend Decadal Scale Variability Year-to-Year Variability Graphs are averages of domain above 13 % 21 % 66 % Annual Mean Temperature
98 13 % 21 % 65 % Climate variability remains a very big deal! A.M. Green, L. Goddard, R. Cousin. Web Tool Deconstructs Variability in Twentieth-Century Climate. Nov EOS, AGU, 92(45),
99 Change is not new. Change in the pipeline. Cannot be called back.
100 Summary Points Climate Change and the West Provides one more source of variability. Old variability continues. Local and regional responses do not have to be the same as global scale. Temp Strongest consensus among the various climate elements Temp All show warming, amounts differ modestly among projections. Precip Sign, amounts, seasonality, frequency all matter. Precip Character of precipitation can be as important as amount. Precip More consensus for T than P, but some precip progress Precipitation change more winter, less spring, summer, autumn? Precipitation change Annual increase north / decrease south More floods (winter) & droughts (summer) possible Temperature is a hydrologic element has significant implications Temperature change is under way, began without our noticing. Western Mountains seem particularly vulnerable to climate change System still has unrealized warming; earth radiation not in balance Choice: Adaptation versus mitigation Managing the unavoidable and avoiding the unmanageable
101 Thank You!
102 Discards
103 Precip Days Per Year 0.01 Ave Hours Precip Per Year Ave Percent Hours Precip / yr Once per year wettest hour (in.) Ann wettest hr Pct of Ann Ave Intermountain Precipitation Stats Importance of a few opportunities Precip Days per Year (POR) Hourly (approx 1949 to 2009) How many hours per year? Wettest hour of typical year? Percent of hours with precip How important is wettest hour?
104 Oct-Mar Apr-May-June Fraction of Annual Total Precipitation, by Season July-Aug
105 Nevada Annual Precipitation Cycle
106 Next to Long Draw Fire SE Oregon 2012 July 24 Jamie Francis, Oregonian
107 Lowest Arctic Ice Pack on record mid-sept 2012 Surrounding ocean absorbed much more solar radiation this summer.
108 Trends in North America 850 mb ( ~5000 ft) Temperature CRUTS3.1 (thanks to John Abatzoglou) Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn Deg C / Decade Redmond and Abatzoglou, submitted 2013 Current Climate and Recent Trends. Ch 2. Climate Change in North America. George Ohring, ed. Springer.
109 Trends in North America mb Thickness (Lower Atm Temperature CRUTS3.1 (thanks to John Abatzoglou) Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn meters / Decade Redmond and Abatzoglou, submitted 2013 Current Climate and Recent Trends. Ch 2. Climate Change in North America. George Ohring, ed. Springer.
110 Trends in North America Estimated Rain vs Snow at 2000 m (~6600 ft) CRUTS3.1 (thanks to John Abatzoglou) Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn Percent / Decade Redmond and Abatzoglou, submitted 2013 Current Climate and Recent Trends. Ch 2. Climate Change in North America. George Ohring, ed. Springer.
111 Trends in North America Estimated Rain vs Snow at 1000 m (~3300 ft) CRUTS3.1 (thanks to John Abatzoglou) Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn Percent / Decade Redmond and Abatzoglou, submitted 2013 Current Climate and Recent Trends. Ch 2. Climate Change in North America. George Ohring, ed. Springer.
112 Summer vegetation anomaly. Navajo Nation ctsy Barry Middleton, USGS.
113 Years of drought out of 13 springs ctsy Barry Middleton, USGS
114 Years of drought out of 13 summers ctsy Barry Middleton, USGS
115 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan thru Dec 1933
116 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan thru Dec 1934
117 Oct - Apr Annual 1933 Annual 1934
118 Jan - Jun 1934 Temp Jan - Jun 2012 Temp
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