Modeling Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Wetlands: Understanding Potential Impacts and Their Implications for Management on Cape Cod

Transcription

1 Modeling Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Wetlands: Understanding Potential Impacts and Their Implications for Management on Cape Cod C a p e C o a s t a l C o n f e r e n c e H y a n n i s R e s o r t a n d C o n f e r e n c e C e n t e r D e c e m b e r 7, Photo credit: Mike McHugh, MassDEP Marc Carullo Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management

2 Four scenarios with estimates of SLR by 2100 Rick Meyerowitz, From Forecast by Nicholas Blechman.

3 Project Objectives Understand potential for coastal wetland habitat conversion/loss under multiple scenarios of SLR Identify and assess opportunities for and barriers to marsh migration Engage stakeholders to better incorporate wetlands into adaptation strategies and planning efforts

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5 Four scenarios with estimates of SLR by 2100 United States National Climate Assessment (Parris et al. 2012), adjusted for local subsidence Projected Scenario Lowest Intermediate Low Intermediate High Highest Total Sea Level Rise (Boston) m (0.82 feet) m (2.32 feet) m (4.54 feet) m (7.10 feet) Project Timescale M o d e l s u s e d : Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM)*

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7 Cape Cod Cape Cod SLAMM Project Panels

8 Cape Cod Cape Cod SLAMM Project Panels

9 Annual Change in Area (Ha) Average annual change in area by decade* from for Cape Cod project panels Macrotidal areas* Microtidal areas* -150 Dry Land Open Ocean Estuarine Open Water Regularly- Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Fl ooded Marsh Transitional Marsh Time Period (Decade) for Select SLAMM Classes D R A F T

10 Potential Salt Marsh Trends from Cape Cod Intermediate High SLR Scenario > 3500 ha increase in reg-flooded marsh (low marsh zone), 225% > 5500 ha decrease in irreg-flooded marsh (high marsh zone), 87% Total loss of approximately 2000 ha of salt marsh, 25% Marshes draining to Vineyard and Nantucket Sounds are potentially more susceptible to loss from SLR than those draining to Cape Cod Bay (i.e., tidal range sensitivity). 100 Years of Estuarine Marsh Trends in Massachusetts (1893 to 1995)

11 Area (Hectares) Potential Upland Marsh Migration w/in 100 ft Buffer South Shore Intermediate High SLR Scenario Migration Area (MA) MA w/in Buffer Low Int Low Int High High SLR Scenario D R A F T North River, Marshfield

12 SLR Scenarios Upland Marsh Migration South Shore Land Use / Land Cover Distribution of Potential Migration Areas Low 103 Int Low Int High Total Area (ha) Forest Agricultural Golf Course Residential Other* High 772 D R A F T 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

13 2100 Marsh Migration Potential *For illustrative purposes only Lidar DEM 12 m 5m -2 m Marsh-Upland Border Westport River - East Buzzards Bay West DRAFT Intermediate High SLR Static accretion

14 2100 Marsh Migration Potential *For illustrative purposes only C O A S TA L SQUEEZE Select SLAMM Classes Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Tidal Flat Westport River - East Buzzards Bay West DRAFT Intermediate High SLR Static accretion

15 Cape Cod SLAMM Project Panels Chase Garden Creek

16 Chase Garden Creek Dennis Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh 2011 D R A F T

17 Chase Garden Creek Dennis Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh 2030 D R A F T

18 Chase Garden Creek Dennis Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh 2050 D R A F T

19 Chase Garden Creek Dennis Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh 2070 D R A F T

20 Chase Garden Creek Dennis Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh 2100 D R A F T

21 Marsh Migration Potential Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh 2100 Marsh-Upland Border D R A F T

22 Marsh Migration Potential Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh 2100 Marsh-Upland Border D R A F T

23 Marsh Migration Potential Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Lidar DEM 10 m 5 m -0.5 m Marsh-Upland Border Impervious Surface D R A F T

24 Cape Cod SLAMM Project Panels Nauset Marsh

25 Nauset Marsh Eastham Intermediate High SLR Static accretion 2011 Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh D R A F T

26 Nauset Marsh Eastham Intermediate High SLR Static accretion 2030 Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh D R A F T

27 Nauset Marsh Eastham Intermediate High SLR Static accretion 2050 Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh D R A F T

28 Nauset Marsh Eastham Intermediate High SLR Static accretion 2070 Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh D R A F T

29 Nauset Marsh Eastham Intermediate High SLR Static accretion 2100 Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh D R A F T

30 Potential Wetland Distribution by 2100 Under Four SLR Scenarios Parkers River, Yarmouth Low ~ 0.8 ft Int Low ~ 2.3 ft Int High ~ 4.5 ft High ~ 7.1 ft D R A F T

31 Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y L a n d C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g

32 Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y Land C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g

33 Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y Land C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g

34 Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y Land C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g Photo: Delaware DNREC

35 Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y Land C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g Illustration: Mass Audubon Photo: David Johnson

36 Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y Land C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g Illustration: The Blue Carbon Initiative s Coastal Blue Carbon

37 Project website Next Steps Final SLAMM report Overview and highlights Additional data analyses and summaries Esri Story Map and MORIS web tools Stakeholder meetings Long-term monitoring projects Remote sensing and field-based <insert pic of CZM wetlands landing page, example Esri Story Map, etc.

38 Acknowledgements Funding U.S. EPA Region 1 NOAA Office for Coastal Management Project Team MA CZM MA DFG - Division of Ecological Restoration (MA DER) Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL) Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term Research (PIE LTER) Project MassDEP Woods Hole Group Data Contributors MBL/PIE LTER USFWS Parker River NWR NPS Cape Cod NS MassDOT MA DER Waquoit Bay NERR NOAA (CO-OPS) OPS) Woods Hole Group University of South Carolina Jim Morris Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc. SLAMM 6.2 James Morris, University of South Carolina MEM marc.carullo@state.ma.us