Synthesis of Modeling & Algorithm Development Projects
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1 Synthesis of Modeling & Algorithm Development Projects Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Principal March 24, 2011 Presented by Sarah Cooley
2 Algorithm development based state algorithm (O 2, T, hydrography) (Feely/Alin/ Juranek) (Cascadia Margin, Oregon Coast, S. Calif. Bight, NE Pacific) ph, pco2 climatologies (Takahashi) (Global) Satellite based Surface state (Gledhill) (Greater Caribbean) Phys/BGC interplay (Signorini) (Nordic Seas) OA & (Cai/Lohrenz) (Mississippi/Gulf) Other Geochemical proxies: larval ph exposure (Levin/Tanner) (Mussels & Squid) CO2calc (Robbins) (Global)
3 Key categories being parameterized Geochemistry affec/ng biology state/ hydrography algorithm Takahashi climatology Baseline determina/on Biology resul/ng from (?) geochemistry Satellite algorithms Caribbean Gulf of Mexico Nordic Seas Mul/ layered processes Larval history/geochemistry Significance of chemistry to biology
4 Algorithm coverage of water column Levin/Tanner Alin Cai/Lohrenz Robbins (CO2Calc) Feely Juranek Alin Takahashi Gledhill Cai/Lohrenz Signorini Juranek
5 Modeling projects Biogeochemistry Coupled ocean models CESM (Doney); OA forecasts, variability, model data/skill + Satellites: Biogeographic niche of calcifiers (Glover) OCMIP 2 (Kwon/Sarmiento); carbonate pump strength change GFDL/NOAA Ocean BGC model development (Dunne); anth. change effects on global local cycles HAMOCC (Zeebe); OA forecasts, effects on marine calcifiers Box models LOSCAR (Zeebe); behavior of paleo ocean in prior CO2 releases Baseline assessment: Monitoring/modeling W. FL shelf carbonate chemistry (Robbins) Ecosystem/individual based (SLAM) Lifecycle model/direct & indirect effects on dungeness crabs (McElhany) (ECOPATH/ECOSIM) Ecosystem effects of OA on Puget Sound food web (Busch) Stage based model on popula@on (Waldbusser) Physical OA effects on sound transmission: sensi@vity, frequencies (Joseph) Human communi@es Socioeconomic effects of OA (Cooley) Economic effects of OA on reefs (Palardy)
6 Key processes being modeled Chemistry forecasts Ω/pH/[CO 3 2 ] & variability Response dynamics Calcifiers Model data comparison, model improvement Carbonate dissolu@on/ export Mul/cellular organisms Popula@on effects (crabs, bivalves) Ecosystem behavior Human communi/es OA s effects on marine ecosystem services Food security Economic opportuni@es
7 Modeling coverage of water column Coastal Robbins McElhany Busch Waldbusser People Models Palardy Cooley Sabine & Feely, 2007 Satellite/Ocean Cai/Lohrenz Signorini Glover Coupled & Box Models Kwon Zeebe Doney Models Joseph
8 Algorithm & Model Scales
9 Algorithm & Model Scales Biological/ geochemical interplay Chemical equilibria
10 Algorithm & Model Scales Biological/ geochemical interplay Chemical equilibria Hydrographic algorithms ph/pco2 climatologies Satellite algorithms
11 Algorithm & Model Scales Response dynamics Chemistry forecasts
12 Algorithm & Model Scales Calcifiers/Carbonate pump organisms Response dynamics Chemistry forecasts
13 Algorithm & Model Scales Biological/ geochemical interplay Chemical equilibria Calcifiers/Carbonate pump organisms Response dynamics Hydrographic algorithms Chemistry forecasts ph/pco2 climatologies Satellite algorithms
14 Discussion Can we extend data in more ways with other climatologies & algorithms? Obstacles? What obstacles prevent more model data comparisons? Obstacles development of high res models? New geographically specific algorithms or datasets needed? Challenges to overcome to merge BGC and ecological models? Steps to bring in human
Outline u Krill u Pteropods u Copepods u Forams
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