Development of Marine Risk Information for Safety Traditional Sailing Cenderawasih Bay, Eastern Maritime Continent (WTP- 717)

Transcription

1 Development of Marine Risk Information for Safety Traditional Sailing Cenderawasih Bay, Eastern Maritime Continent (WTP- 717) Furqon Alfahmi Bluepoint,Bali Marine Meteorology Center Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (BMKG) Jl. Angkasa I No. 2 Kemayoran, Jakarta Pusat, INDONESIA T: ext F: furqon.alfahmi@bmkg.go.id, furqonalfahmi@gmail.com Session 5 : Indonesian Region met-ocean services on safety and socio-economic benefits with focus on improvement of prediction accuracy

2 Largest archipelago country Second longest coastal line ( km) and has Islands 80% of population live at coastal area (65% are coastal city) 2.7 million of citizen are Fisherman The Coral Triangle : world s center for marine diversity (37 % coral fish) 2014 : recorded that tuna catch MC s reach 16% of world s tuna supply

3 Fisheries Management Area (WPP) Source : KKP IMC has divided area of fishing into 11 zone Potential fishing : WPP % of total fishing ship is small fishing

4 No Machine No Radio No Safety Tools

5 SHIP ACCIDENT REPORT Source : NTSC 85% of total accident caused by Nature and Technique

6 Traditional fishing ship ships with criteria < 30 GT Gross tonnage (GT) is a function of the volume of all of a ship's enclosed spaces (from keel to funnel) measured to the outside of the hull framing. m GT = 0.25 x Volume Mod 2.5 Slight 1.25 small fishing Smooth 0.5 Calm 0 Sea State 3GT 5GT 10GT 20GT 30GT

7 Marine Information : BMKG - Ocean Forecast System (OFS) PRODUCT Significant wave height Sea surface Salinity Sea current Up welling FORECAST DATA UPDATE EVERY 12 HOURS DELIVERED WITH WEBSITE AND SMS (Short Message Service)

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9 Risk Information --- Historical data WRF WRF Risk Information

10 Configuration for WRF and Wavewatch3 WRF Domain 1 Domain 2 Grid 27 km 9 km MP_PHYSICS WRF Single momen WRF Single momen RA_LW_PHYSICS Dudhia Dudhia RA_SW_PHYSICS Dudhia Dudhia SF_SURFACE_PHYSICS Noah Noah BL_PBL_PHYSICS Yonsei University Scheme (YSU) Yonsei University Scheme (YSU) CU_PHYSICS Kain Fritsch Scheme Kain Fritsch Scheme WAVEWATCH III 3.14 Rain fall( Remote sensing, TRMM)

11 What is Risk? Risk includes two elements the likelihood of something happening, and the consequences if it happens Risk is a combination of the likelihood of the occurrence of unexpected events and the consequences of the events (magnitude of impact of the events). A "risk" is the expectation that a threat may succeed and the potential damage that can occur

12 Risk has wide range of consequences, started from catastrophic (disfunction of all system or completely collapse) to ignorable (no harm on the system being affected). Thus matrix of risk can be arranged based on the likelihood of events and the level of its consequences Impact / Consequence Critical / catastrophic Likelihood of event Very likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikely Very High High Medium-High Medium Serious High Medium-High Medium Low-medium Moderate Medium-High Medium Medium-Low Low Minor Medium Low-medium Low Very Low Negligible/ ignore Low-medium Low Very Low Very Low

13 (1) Identify of Marine Fishing Hazards Weather Hazards Tropical cyclone High Sea Heavy Rainfall Anything that may cause harm Geographic Hazards coral reefs, icebergs, sandbars and other spots that are risky to navigate Technological Hazards structural problems, engine issues, navigational equipment failures, etc

14 (2) Determine Consequences Range for Wave and Rainfall Hs 3 meters, what is the impact for ship? Hs 1 meters, what is the impact for ship? Engineering approach : Small ship Critical Serious Minor Negligible Moderate Note : - just determine for one ship one type, but there are various ship type sizes - different skill of captain

15 (2) Determine Consequences Range for Wave and Rainfall Social - Economics approach : Community The purpose of fishing is to meet the needs of the community. If fishermen do not go to sail, then the supply will be reduced. Demand >> Supply >> crisis New Description consequences based on Social Economis Approach Category Description Critical 90 % Ship not sail Serious 70 % Ship not sail Moderate 50 % Ship not sail Minor 30 % Ship not sail Negligible 10 % Ship not sail

16 Daytime Result : Significant wave Nighttime Just slight difference for Hs nighttime and daytime Hs over Cendrawasih m

17 Daytime Marine Risk based on Significant Wave Nighttime Increasing intensity of risk from medium low to medium at western of Cendrawasih Bay on nightime

18 Diurnal Variation of Rain Rate Base on TRMM 12 LT 15 LT 18 LT 21 LT 24 LT 03 LT 06 LT 09 LT Increasing rainfall over Cendrawasih Bay at nightime Alfahmi, 2017

19 Marine Risk based on Significant Wave + Rainfall Daytime Nighttime Rainfall has a significant role in increasing risk at nightime

20 Summary An impact-based forecasting information is required, specially for traditional ship Formulations for risk calculation still need to be developed, risk based on Engineering approach or Social - Economics approach It takes the participation of fishermen ( sharing knowledge ) to develop the marine information that will be provided for them

21 Thank you