Improving Numerical Weather Forecasting for Ghana/West Africa

Transcription

1 Improving Numerical Weather Forecasting for Ghana/West Africa Amos T. Kabo-bah, PhD Head, Earth Observation Research and Innovation Centre University of Energy and Natural Resources Sunyani Ghana/West Africa E: Contributors: M. Amo-Boateng, K. Kabo-bah, C. Mensah, S. Frimpong, E. Adom, M. Domefeh

2 Outline INTRODUCTION THE WEST AFRICAN CLIMATE SYSTEM CHALLENGES WITH NWP OVER WEST AFRICA EXPECTATIONS FROM COSMIC-2 GROUND RECEIVER INSTALLATION IN GHANA PROJECTIONS PREPARATIONS FOR GROUND STATION IN GHANA

3 Earth Observation Research and Innovation Centre (EORIC) VISION: To become a leading Research Centre in Africa in the promotion and dissemination of value-added satellite and in-situ based data and information, transfer of ultra-modern affordable space science skills and technologies for meeting the needs of society MISSION: To promote, facilitate and support the acquisition and application of geospatial technologies in interdisciplinary research and education in areas of water, disasters, energy, climate, agriculture, ecosystems, weather health and biodiversity. DIVISIONS: 1. Satellite, Weather and Climate 4. Applied Computational Modelling and Research Laboratory 2. Advanced Virtual Fire 5. Virtual Environmental Laboratory Laboratory 3. Climate Informatics 6. Unmanned Aerial Systems

4 Ground Receiving station at Centre Direct broadcast from 8 different Satellites TERRA AQUA Suomi NPP NOAA 18 NOAA 19 METOP-A METOP-B FENGYUN 3B

5 Computational Fluid Dynamics UAV Ground station for COMIC-2 (launch due in Sept Graphic Processing Unit Programming Carbon Cycle Monitoring Tower (November 2016) Existing and Near Future Infrastructure at Centre

6 INTRODUCTION The Earth Observation Research and Innovation Centre (EORIC) conducts in-situ observations, satellite and meteorological data analyses, numerical modeling and simulations through partnerships with other institutions. EORIC is aimed at advancing the current knowledge on severe weather and atmospheric dynamics of the West African region.

7 INSTRUMENTS ACCESSED Metop A&B Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR/3) Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A1 And A2 (AMSU-A) HKTM,ADCS,HIRS,GR AS,ASCA,MHS,SEM TERRA & AQUA Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) Suomi NPP Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) NOAA AVHRR/3,HIRS/4,AMSU-A

8 PRODUCTS FROM EORIC Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) VIIRS Aerosol Environmental Data Record (EDR) VIIRS Suspended Matter (SM) EDR VIIRS Aerosol Geolocation VIIRS Vegetation Index EDR VIIRS Active Fire Level 2 (NASA algorithm) VIIRS Fire Location Text File VIIRS Land Surface Temperature EDR VIIRS Imagery and Moderate Resolution Corrected Reflectance Level2 Products VIIRS Active Fires Application Related Product (ARP) (with Fire Mask) and many more OMPS OMPS Total Column Level 1A EV (TCL1AEV) OMPS Total Column SDR EV(TCSDREV) OMPS Total Column Total Ozone (TCTO3) OMPS Total Column Total SO2 NRT (TCTSO2NRT) OMPS Nadir Profile Level 1A EV (NPL1AEV) OMPS Nadir Profile SDR EV (NPSDREV) OMPS Nadir Profile SDR Deluxe (NPSDRDELUXE) OMPS Nadir Profile Ozone (NPO3) Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MODIS Cloudmask Level 2(MOD35) MODIS Cloudtop Properties, Cloud Phase and Cloud Optical properties Level 2 (MOD06) MODIS Atmospheric Profiles Level 2(MOD07) MODIS Aerosol Level 2(MOD04) MODIS Ocean Color Level 2 (daytime product, includes Chlorophyll-a [CHLOR_A] concentration) MODIS Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Level 2 MODIS Active Fires Daily Composite Level 3 MODIS Prescar and Burnscar Level 3 and many more

9 THE WEST AFRICAN CLIMATE SYSTEM DRY SEASON: The dry season is dictated by the intensification and orientation of the Azores High pressure belt which passes over the Sahara desert, and pushes very dry north easterly winds towards the coast. WET SEASON: In summer, the land gets hotter than the ocean and as the air over the Sahara starts to rise, cooler, more humid air from the Ocean is drawn further inland. The humid air supports intense thunderstorms in the Sahel zone, and the first of these storms announce the arrival of the rainy season.

10 Complexity of the West African Monsoon System Key features of the West African Monsoon Climate System during Boreal summer SAL Heat Low AEJ ITCZ Source: Chris Thorncroft, ANACIM, SENEGAL Cold Tongue

11 Scale interactions Figure adapted from Redelsperger et al, BAMS 2006 Global 10 4 km Regional Monsoon Systems Global SST Teleconnections Remote effects of MJO Scale interactions 10 3 km Mesoscale 10 2 km Local 10 1 km Shallow Cells AEWs Deep Conv Cells Mesoscale Convective Systems Catchments Pools Vegetation Soil Vegetation Soil Major River Basins Intraseasonal scale is a central scale for the understanding of Monsoon variability and its impacts Hour Day Diurnal Cycle Season Seasonal Cycle Year Interannual Variability

12 CHALLENGES IN NWP OVER WEST AFRICA Poor skill in Numerical Weather Prediction to forecast the major features of the West African Monsoon (WAM) from the diurnal (convection, nocturnal jet) to the synoptic scales (as African Easterly Waves). Scarcity and quality of weather observations but data assimilation can reduce these effects (Karbou et al., 2010). Sparse network of surface and upper air observations in the tropics. Tropical Weather is difficult to forecast. Inadequate regional NWP products to improve numerical weather forecasting over the tropics especially West Africa. Local and mesoscale effects are dominant than synoptic influences except for tropical cyclones. West Africa weather forecasting like in other tropical regions cannot fully rely on mid-latitude synoptic models or even climatology.

13 CHALLENGES IN NWP OVER WEST AFRICA (cont d) NWP systems unable to forecast Meso-scale Convective Systems. Temperature and humidity profiles from GPS is radio occultation is limited. Need to evaluate NWP models and the impact on observations. Need for more Satellite real time imagery. Polar orbiting satellites only view the same area twice per day and that creates large gaps in the orbit paths across the region.

14 COSMIC-2 Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) is the world s first operational GPS-RO mission for global Earth weather forecasting and climate monitoring. System architecture of FS-7/C-2 (image credit: NSPO, NOAA)

15 EXPECTATIONS FROM COSMIC-2 INSTALLATION Satellite observation improves the accuracy of numerical weather prediction. Especially data over remote areas would be easily accessible. From COSMIC-2 instruments and ground software which uses GPS signal characteristics, near real time images and atmospheric soundings, can be accessed, especially on temperature and humidity. Products will further improve upon the numerical weather prediction and climate analyses at the centre and Ghana Meteorological Agency, a partner institution. The data obtained will help in validation studies at the Centre, as the performance of COSMIC-2 over the West African Region will be studied.

16 EXPECTATIONS FROM COSMIC-2 INSTALLATION COSMIC-2 will produce higher Spatial and temporal density of profiles over tracking GPS signals alone to improve weather prediction models and severe weather forecasting. It s accuracy of the predictions in tropical cyclones, long range weather forecasts and climate change monitoring over the tropics will improve the study of Tropical Meteorology and Climatology at the centre and University.

17 PROJECTIONS The Weather and Climate Section of EORIC is determined at improving the observation and better understanding of the West African Monsoon through numerical modeling. (Works to be published and presented at conferences). Capacity building in the use of efficient forecasting tools and products for forecasters and researchers in numerical weather prediction. Opportunity to evaluate NWP models and the impact on observations.

18 Preparations - Ground Station for COSMIC-2 Held telecom discussions with NOAA about COSMIC-2 initiative Leaders of University ready to support the COSMIC-2 programme with any available local logistics Initial Agreement with Atlas Corp, a US-based organisation to deploy antenna Received draft schedule from Atlas Corp, indicating a ready ground station one-month ahead of launch. It is expected to finalise discussions between NOAA, Atlas Corp and Centre by the end of this month

19 THANK YOU For inquires and questions Write to: