The Future of NOAA Satellite Systems and Data

Transcription

1 The Future of NOAA Satellite Systems and Data -- H.R. 353 Weather Research & Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 Committee on Earth Science & Applications from Space (CESAS) Washington, DC March 28, 2017 Conrad C Lautenbacher, Jr CEO, GeoOptics, Inc 1

2 Agenda The Task Current System Issues Business Model Changing Technical Landscape Weather Satellite Pipeline Resource Use U.S. Policies & Practices The Weather Enterprise Discussion 2

3 Study of NOAA Future Satellites Systems* Recommendations for more robust and cost-effective data Costs and benefits of constellations of many small satellites, standardized bus design, purchasing of data Identify weather model essential observations based on observations, assessment of weather research, and cost Identify current observations that could improve the model quality today identify and prioritize future observations that could contribute to existing and future weather models Develop recommendations on a portfolio of observations that balances the best of private and non-private sources, and space and Earth-based sources. * Presenter s edit of H.R.352 Weather Research and Forecasting innovation Act of

4 Business Model Issues GOES-R 13 yrs Y e a r s Developmental Satellites METEOSAT loaned to U.S. NPP SUOMI 16 yrs D e l t a TIROS 10 mos GOES-8 11 yrs GOES loaned to Japan Small Operational Satellite Numbers 1 loss a disaster Operational Satellites that are really Developmental Inherent Cost Growth and Schedule Delays 4

5 Changing Technical Landscape Aging Work Force Pioneers are retiring Challenge and Opportunity A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it. Max Planck Scientific Autobiography and Other Papers, trans. F. Gaynor (1950), 33. Technology Moving Rapidly New Space Business Model(s) Battle Stars vs. Cellularized constellations Expand Commercial Roles (e.g. data continuity) 5

6 The U.S. Weather Satellite "Pipeline Research Government Academia Industry NASA Terra -- Aqua MODIS* Operations Government Industry NOAA JPSS VIIRS** Time $$$ Cost Overruns Schedule Delays Potential Data Gaps New Concept Demonstration 1 of a kind What is missing?? *Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer **Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite 6 Reliable Continuous Timely Lowest Cost Data Gap Goals Not

7 The U.S. Weather Satellite "Pipeline Research Government Academia Industry NASA Terra -- Aqua MODIS* Operations Government Industry NOAA JPSS VIIRS** Time $$$ Cost Overruns Schedule Delays Potential Data Gaps New Concept Demonstration 1 of a kind What is missing?? *Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer **Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite 7 Reliable Continuous Timely Lowest Cost Data Gap Goals Not

8 The U.S. Weather Satellite "Pipeline Utopian Concept Research Operations New Concept Demonstration 1 of a kind Reliable Continuous Timely Lowest Cost Missing Today Reality Research Development Test & Evaluation Operations New Concept Demonstration 1 of a kind Technology Engineering Manufacturability Cost Benefit Simulation Cost Benefit Prove on Orbit Reliability Timely Reliable Continuous Lowest Cost 8

9 The U.S. Weather Satellite "Pipeline Research Government Academia Industry NASA Terra -- Aqua Development Test & Evaluation Government Academia Industry NOAA Free Flyer Instrument licensed by government Fixed Price Data Buys Operations Government Industry NOAA Commercial Data JPSS MODIS MODIS ++ VIIRS New Concept Demonstration 1 of a kind Technology Manufacturability Cost Benefit Prove on Orbit Reliable Continuous Timely Lowest Cost Time and Budget Flexible 9 On Time and Budget

10 Weather Satellites Current Satellite costs escalating $B per satellite Can afford only 1-2 at a time year development time technology out of date by launch Future $K per satellite Very small, 100 or more Short development time Replenish annually as needed New technology Easy to test & introduce U.S. Annual Funding ($B) NWS Year NESDIS Best balance of funding for weather forecast improvement? 10

11 Business Models: Old vs New Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Satellite = 3 story, 2 car 8600 Lbs CubeSat = 4 cube 5 8 lbs 11

12 U.S. Policies & Practices Government develops, owns and operates all weather satellites (Practice) Cannot be sold to private entities (Law) Government Data & Products free to: government agencies, researchers, public U.S. Commercial Weather Industry (Practice) Government Space Policy (Executive Order) Purchase commercial space services to maximum Do not compete with US commercial space activities World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Resolution 40 Data Sharing Fair Weather Report National Academies Recognition of Commercial Weather industry Academia, Government, Commercial 12

13 U.S. Policies & Practices Government develops, owns and operates all weather satellites (Practice) Cannot be sold to private entities (Law) Government Data & Products free to: government agencies, researchers, public U.S. Commercial Weather Industry (Practice) Government Space Policy (Executive Order) Purchase commercial space services to maximum Do not compete with US commercial space activities World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Resolution 40 Data Sharing Fair Weather Report National Academies Recognition of Commercial Weather industry Academia, Government, Commercial About to end! Contradictory? Not Necessarily! 13

14 The Weather Enterprise Products and Services Maximizing Value Government Academia Science Research Public Safety Economic Health National Defense Regulation Commercial Services Efficiency Competition Robust Economy Communication 14

15 The End We are really the generation that reached the limits. Research Earth scientists. are the only ones who can explain the basic processes that are threatening us Jeffrey Sachs* Accept the challenge Work for a sustainable future Education *Eos News Vol 95, No 51, 23 Dec Conrad C Lautenbacher, Jr.