EMMA / METEOALARM - European Weather Warnings. B. Niedermoser M. Ungersböck, A. Ohms, M. Staudinger,

Transcription

1 EMMA / METEOALARM - European Weather Warnings B. Niedermoser M. Ungersböck, A. Ohms, M. Staudinger,

2 EMMA / METEOALARM History and present situation of the project European Warning structures Open problems Chances for the future

3 Nature of catastrophies

4

5

6 Europa Regional

7 METEOALARM operational maps for today + tomorrow

8 METEOALARM operational maps for today + tomorrow

9 METEOALARM operational maps for today + tomorrow

10

11 METEOALARM Production Centre Salzburg Intranet user Via Munich Via Vienna WWW Backbone Firewall Internet user Load-Balancer FTP Server Partner (XML Files) Applikationsserver für meteoalarm prim. IIS webserver sec IIS webserver every 10 minutes MS SQL server (Visualisation) New MS SQL server (Producing ) XML Statistik : -> maps generated / day 7.5 Mio year -> archive maps 1500 maps day Access from outside: 12 Mio/day (Max) 1 to 6 (average)

12 feedback UK July 20th green when floods / METEO - HYDRO Differences between countries RSS feed Missing info on ozon, air pollution Missing EU member states Congratulations....

13 Recent events Cooperation with other institutions: Presentation of METEOALARM at the EU Commission, Brussels Cooperation with MIC (Monitorung and Information Center) Integration in BOSS4GMES Cooperation with ECMWF Coming up: WMO PWS GEOSS

14 Recent events European partners in the process of joining: Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Latvia Slovakia Slovenia

15 METEOALARM - environment Market interest Media Visibility Concept / Content Internal Harmonisation Technical Performance

16 Relationship warnings - damages Aim of warnings: avoid damages To achieve best results: adequate reactions necessary special category necessary for large scale damages E.g. large numbers of people displaced Frequencies of warnings as most important element for reactions If vaild for all of Europe: consistent warning- damage relation needed Chances of a Multihazard Warning system

17 Relationship warnings - damages Avoid the following cases: Warning for a heat wave in Greenland Missing warnings for frost in the Azores More than 1 element yellow - extreme damages Excessive red cases missing adequate reactions

18 Type of forecasts - Warnings Type of forecast economic / social implications General forecast (often automatically produced) Special weather report Warnings for single clients Warnings Users relate the term Warnings with damages

19 scales

20 scales

21 Damages - Warnings Damage / Impact What to do? Used how often? (per approx. 300 kkm 2 ) Meteo Treshholds Rain area related + Damage related Green --- usual phenomena yellow exposed objects (avoidable) caution with exposed activities > 30 per year > 30 mm/12h orange general damages (not avoidable) keep informed in detail, follow advice of authorities 1 to 30 per year > 54 mm/12h red extreme damage and /or casualties extreme damage (mostly) on large areas, threatning life and properties (not avoidable, even in otherwise safe places) follow order of authorities under all circumstances be prepared for extraordinary measures less then 1 year for large (5000km2) scale phenomena > 80 mm/12h

22 Integration into national procedures

23 September floods + snow

24 September floods + snow

25 Precipitation sums Station 24h sums 48 h sums Bad Goisern 84,4 143,4 Gmunden 79,7 121,1 St. Wolfgang 90,0 147,3 Windischgarsten 81,0 157,4 Lofer 79,1 137,4 Radstadt 66,6 107,5 Rudolfshütte 71,1 132,7 Salzburg-Freisaal 65,1 96,5

26 Return period for 24h event

27 Return period for 48h event

28

29

30

31

32

33 Lower Austria

34 Lower Austria

35 Lower Austria

36 Damages Niederösterreich 2 4 Mio Oberösterreich 1 2 Mio All of Austria 1 fatality Present concept: red Damages and warnings in neighbouring countries: orange

37 Natural catastrophies extent of damage Severity of the event community regional country

38 Who knows how much? competence of single actors Complexity of the event

39 European Structures - MIC (Monitoring and Information Center)

40 GMES - Emergency Response Core Services EU focal point Service Governance Space infrastructure End-user focal point National downstream services Requestes G A T E W A Y EROS focal point Negotiation of EO data availability Q C MM data ground segment interface EO value added data providers Space Ground Segments Fast Tracks and other data sources Delivery Thematic maps providers In situ data networks Models Emergency Response Core Services

41 Europäische Warnstrukturen In situ data Meteo Models Additional Info EFAS, EFI Windstorm... Forecaster Hydrometeo SMHI training Civil protection SE nationally taylored datasets Dataset, model # 1,2,4,5,7 Media public Sat Obs

42 In situ data Meteo Models Additional Info EFAS, EFI Windstorm... Forecaster Hydrometeo SMHI training Civil protection SE nationally taylored datasets Dataset, model # 1,2,4,5,7 Media public Sat Obs In situ data Meteo Models Additional Info EFAS, EFI Windstorm... Sat Obs Meteo FMI Hydro Finland training Civil protection SF nationally taylored datasets Dataset, model # 1,2,3,6,10 Media public

43 Meteo Models In situ data Additional Info EFAS, EFI Windstorm... Sat Obs Forecasters Hydro / Met (Europe 30) Definition + training MIC METEOALARM day 1-6 All datasets model 1, 3, 4 Models 1 to 10 CP EU (Intranet) Media Public In situ data Meteo Models Additional Info EFAS, EFI Windstorm... e.g. forecaster Hydrometeo SMHI training Civil protection SE nationally taylored datasets Dataset, model # 1,2,4,5,7 (Protected website) Media public Sat Obs In situ data Meteo Models Additional Info EFAS, EFI Windstorm... Sat Obs e.g. Meteo FMI Hydro Finland training training Civil protection SF nationally taylored datasets Dataset, model # 2,3,6,7 (Protected website) Media public

44 Website for Civil Prot. / MIC What? Allows access for CP to datasets from neighbouring countries gives MIC a condensed overview of all necessary sets of data How? Passwordprotected Defined user rights by different countries for their Civil. Prot (levels) enhanced activities from level orange onwards When? Starts as overview for MIC and gets enlarged according to the request of different countries

45 possible warning parameters / meteorological features Day 0 Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4 Rain Snow/Road conditions Wind Cloudiness (Sat obs)

46 Information for civil protection Impact >20/year 20/year 10/year 1/year (return period) + area criteria + area criteria + area criteria Probability + other factors + other factors + other factors 1-30% 30 70% 70 90% %

47 Statistics February October (all parameters) percentage of shown country colors 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% AT BE CH CY DE DK ES FI FR GB GR HU IR IS IT LU NL NO PT SE

48 Forecasters forum

49 Statistics February October (all parameters) percentage of shown country colors 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% AT BE CH CY DE DK ES FI FR GB GR HU IR IS IT LU NL NO PT SE

50 Rain

51 thunderstorms

52 Snow

53 decision tree for red criteria at one point/station no red / lower level area criteria (parameter) met? no red / lower level extreme impact possible 1 no red / lower level Pos feedback from civ pro? no red / lower level red optional steps 1 might be caused by a combination of parameters

54 Expert team for red Senior forecaster (teamleader) Member of the board Expert on clima / statistics Contact point to the media Civil protection

55 decision tree for orange criteria at one point/station no orange / lower level area criteria (parameter) met? no orange / lower level extreme impact possible 1 no orange / higher or lower level orange optional steps 1 might be caused by a combination of parameters

56 Meteo Hydro Warnungen e.g. Combined precipitation / flood warnings France: SCHAPI system

57 Austria Carinthia Platform for Experts on Meteorology Hydrology Civil protection Relieve units

58 Meteo Hydro Warnungen

59 METEOALARM Pyramid of information - present Problems: EU map (Countries) all parameters Regional info? Which parameter/country? Country information (partly with icons) Missing icons Regional information (Partly with text) Missing texts

60 METEOALARM Pyramid of information - future Solutions: EU map (Regions) Imminent hazards No oversizing of regional info Country maps All countries with icons Non imminent hazards: Forest fires, fog, avalanches?, More info through icons Potential risks less visible Regional text information in all countries available info made visible

61 Open questions for WP (David Richardson) Which products help users in providing early warnings? What should be expected for 3 days, 1 week, 1 month How important post processing/calibration of model data Verification for early warning: Extreme / rare events sample size observations do we know what happened? extrapolate from moderate events what scores to use? how should case studies be used (consider false alarms and missed events)?

62 Open questions for WP (David Richardson) Which products help users in providing early warnings? What should be expected for 3 days, 1 week, 1 month How important post processing/calibration of model data Verification for early warning: Extreme / rare events sample size observations do we know what happened? extrapolate from moderate events what scores to use? how should case studies be used (consider false alarms and missed events)?

63 Information from damage observations to the system Awareness for details of damages and potential preconditions Needed: Networks between civil protection & meteorologists Feedback mechanism about damages to NMHS / member states / ECMWF Case studies on all aspects of skill needed (hit, missed, FA, corr rejection) Dependence on consequences of climatic changes / adaptation

64 Merci for your attention!