FMI & MULTIHAZARD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

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1 FMI & MULTIHAZARD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS Prof. Petteri Taalas Director General FMI FMI Director General

2 PETTERI TAALAS, BACKGROUND Director General of the Finnish Meteorological Institute , 2007-, 700 staff, ~80 M /year Doubling of external funding level Very high customer & staff satisfaction, No1 public sector organization in Finland One of the major NMHSs in Research & Development, tripling of scientific publication level Major emphasis on supporting sister NMHSs & partnerships with advanced NMHSs Modern weather, marine & climate services Director at the World Meteorological Organization (Development & Regional Act.) Emphasis on serving the Members/NMHSs, establishment of resource mobilizing office Reorganization of the department together with the staff Support to modernization/efficiency of WMO as Executive Council member Chairman of EUMETSAT Council 2010-, 500 staff, ~400 M /year Effective management of EUMETSAT & its Council meetings Support to new polar programme (~1.5 B ) & developing countries Univ. of Eastern Finland, Chairman of the Board 2009-, 2800 staff, students, 260 M Merging of two universities to form a large university successfully Application of a new semi-private administrative model Fortum energy company, board member 2014-, advisory board 2011-, staff, 6100 M Second largest government partly owned company in Finland, business in ~10 countries FMI Director General

3 EARLY WARNINGS FOR VARIOUS CUSTOMERS => ALLOCATION OF EXTRA STAFF & RESOURCE PLANNING WIND STORMS SNOW STORMS LIGHTNING COLD SPELLS HEAT WAVES SPACE WEATHER FMI Director General Deviation from mean (ºC)

4 SERVICES AND KNOW-HOW OF FMI FOR FINLAND 1) SAFETY, PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY TRAFFIC SAFETY: ROAD, AIR, MARITIME & RAIL WINTER ROAD & AIPORT MAINTENANCE ICEBREAKER SERVICES TRAFFIC FLUENCY EMISSIONS: CLIMATE AND HEALTH IMPACTS RESCUE & SAFETY HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER OIL & HAZARDOUS RELEASES FOREST FIRES DEFENCE AIR FORCE, NAVY AND GROUND HEALTH AND LIFE NUCLEAR RELEASE DISPERSION AIR QUALITY & TEMPERATURE 2) PRIVATE SECTOR 3) INTERNATIONAL RESPONSIBILITIES ENTERPRIZES INSTRUMENTS WIND-SOLAR-HYDRO POWER ENERGY SECURITY ARCTIC TECHNOLOGY FORESTRY & AGRICULTURE CLIMATE ADAPTATION DISASTERS AND FLOODING FARM OPERATIONS GREENHOUSE GAS FLUXES FOREIGN AFFAIRS DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER GLOBAL DISASTERS ORGANIZATIONS WMO, IPCC ECMWF, EUMETSAT, EUMETNET GEO, SCAR, ESA 4) RESEARCH & ENVIRONMENT R & D UNIVERSITY PARTNERSHIPS PROFESSORS INFRASTRUCTURES ENVIRONMENT AIR QUALITY CLIMATE

5 SERVICES AND SCIENCE DG & DG & office Petteri Taalas ~10 my 2014 Weather & safety Jussi Kaurola ~291 my Weather & safety centre Customer services Service development Weather service IT Observation services Research & dev. Yrjö Viisanen ~355 my Climate centre Climate research Atmospheric composition Meteorological research Marine research Earth observation Arctic research E-Finland research centre Expert services Total budget 76 M 65 % government, 35 % external (commercial, R&D) 63 % of R & D external (EC, Academy of Finland, ESA, EUMETSAT etc.) 66 % Academic, 20 % PhD 51 foreign experts, 9 professor level FMI Director General Administration Marko Viljanen ~30 my

6 HEAT WAVE JUL-AUG 2010 EUROPE: DEATHS Finnish Meteorological Institute 04/01/2016 6

7 WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCTION SYSTEM Observations Forecast models 24/7 control and editing Automatic production Special products FMI Director General

8 FREE MOBILE & INTERNET SERVICES Free Mobile phone applications: Apple, Android, Windows WWW page: weather, climate, floods, disasters Finland 60 % of internet users visit FMI every week, most visited government page Free access to all data & products (7000 registered users) Net-TV: normal weather reports, extreme events special attention FMI Director General

9 ARCTIC SATELLITE CENTRE (Sodankylä, 67 N) International partners: ESA, EUMETSAT, NASA, NOAA & CMA National weather, safety and environment services E-GEOS for flood monitoring FMI Director General

10 FMI RESULTS/GOALS 2014 ACCURACY OF FORECASTS GOAL 2014 RESULT 2014 Temperature 24 h, % Temperature 2-5 days, % TAFs(aviation), % Wind warnings 1-2 days, % Ability to forecast rain, hours in advance DELIVERY RATES Delivery rate of weather and marine services, % STAKEHOLDER AND CUSTOMER SATISFACTION Stakeholders/partners (scale 1-5) Customers(scale 1-5) RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Peer-reviewed articles, # Externalresearchfunding, M FMI Director General

11 EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EWS) IS PART OF NATIONAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (DRR) Likelihood of major natural disasters has increased - Affecting people and property - Causing economic losses Vulnerability and exposure to natural hazards has increased - Earlier same hazards caused less damage Implementation of EWS - Save lives - Reduce losses - Increase efficiency of response FMI Director General 11

12 FINNISH NATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION LUOVA A strong political commitment by the government, legislation and national programs ensuring that DRR is a national and local priority Tsunami in Asia on 26 December 2004, proposal for action by Accident Investigation Committee Internal Security Programme(adopted by government 2008) Security Strategy for Society (adopted by government 2010) National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (appointed 2010), Hyogo Framework for Action To reduce risk factors of disasters caused by natural hazards and to improve society s preparedness for disasters caused by natural hazards - To identify areas that require further action or development FMI Director General 12

13 GOALS OF LUOVA Clarify and improve dissemination of information on natural hazards Collect and compile forecasts, analysis and warnings from disaster information providers A single fast communication system between experts and authorities 24/7 on-call duty monitoring, warning and communication system FMI Director General 13

14 LUOVA Operative system since the beginning of year /7 early warning system, which produce timely and analysed information of natural hazards for the use Finnish government and safety authorities Operation is steered by the Ministry of Transport and Communication The system supports society s preparedness and decision-making of the safety authorities Photo: A-J. Punkka Photo: M. Rauhala FMI Director General 14

15 PARTICIPATING ACTORS System is based on an expert network of hydrologists, meteorologists, oceanographers and seismologists Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) Weather related phenomena and sea water level Technical operation of the system and transmission Co-ordination between actors and end users Finnish Environmental Institute (SYKE) Lake and river flooding University of Helsinki, Institute of Seismology Earthquakes FMI Director General 15

16 LUOVA SYSTEM Monitoring service, which monitor various information sources, produce forecast, issue warnings and maintain situation picture Expert networkprovides analysed information on disaster and potential impacts Secured communication and dissemination system for warnings Feedback mechanisms between service provides and end-users to facilitate evaluation and improvement of the warning system Seismologi cal Institute Internet Firewall Firewall Luova portal FMI Luova services Luova FTP server Luova server Luova database SYKE FMI Director General 16 End- User Private link FMI data

17 LUOVA OPERATION 24/7 continuous monitoring Highly skilled forecasters/duty officers present During hazard on-line contact with experts FMI duty officer issue warnings

18 DATA AND INFORMATION SOURCES Observations Surface observation Weather radars (e.g. heavy rains, storms) Mareographs(sea level) Satellite data (e.g. forest fires, floods, earthquakes) National and International models Numerical weather models (Hirlam and ECMWF models) Hydrological watershed model Numerical sea level model National and international information centres Earthquakes Seismic data processing system SeisComP3 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Tsunamis NOAA Tsunami Warning System in the West Coast/Alaska NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre IOC Sea Level Station Monitoring Facility Hurricanes Tropical Cyclones Centre NOAA National Hurricane Centre FMI Director General 18

19 LUOVA WARNING LEVELS Three warning levels are used and thresholds are linked to severity of danger and potential impacts 1 Phenomenon is very dangerous. May cause great damage to people, infrastructure and economy. 2 Phenomenon is dangerous. May cause locally great damage to people, infrastructure and/or economy. 3 Phenomenon is potentially dangerous. May cause locally damage to people, infrastructure and/or economy FMI Director General 19

20 PHENOMENA COVERED BY LUOVA LUOVA alert threshold is exceeded, when natural disasters affect Finnish population, economy or critical infrastructure in Finland Storms (Europa) Tropical storms (Global) Forest fires (Europa) Thunderstorms (Finland) Heavy rain (Finland) Snowstorm (Finland) Sea water level (Finland) Floods (Finland) Earthquakes (Global) Volcanic eruption (Europe) Tsunamis (Global) Space weather (Finland) FMI Director General 20

21 CONTENT OF WARNING MESSAGE Warning message is based on specific needs of end users Summary of hazard Present situation, forecasts and warnings Location and time of danger Impacts Potential impacts on people Potential damages Critical infrastructure

22 DISSEMINATION OF WARNINGS Alert message SMS Warning message Web portal FMI Director General 22

23 CUSTOMERS OF LUOVA Prime Minister s Office - situation awareness centre Maintenance of the security-related situation picture Ministry for Foreign Affairs Assistance and advise Finnish nationals in distress abroad Ministry of the Interior Maintenance of internal security and rescues services Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Flood risk management Defence forces Provide executive assistance The Finnish Red Cross National and international aid work Rescue Departments Rescue operations FMI Director General 23

24 BENEFITS OF LUOVA Provides real-time information on natural disasters for government and authorities Provides analysed and accurate information on natural disaster, which affect Finnish population at home or abroad Impact estimations on disasters provide new type of information for end users Expert network is able to develop the system Established system and processes can be copied and utilized FMI Director General 24

25 DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE New type of warnings heat waves Improved flood forecasts and warnings Development of the content of warnings Impact analysis Utilization of geographical information services (GIS) Utilization of satellite data and images FMI Satellite Data Centre in Sodankylä

26 TAPANI STORM 2011 First storm warnings were issued 3 days before the event in 23 December Warning level red very dangerous Impact assessment: - Falling trees - Power cuts lack of electricity Realized damages Blocked roads and railroads Trees on buildings households out of electricity Breaks in water supply Breaks in telecommunication network

27 EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI 11 MARCH 2011 IN JAPAN FMI issued weather information until 10 May for Fukushima area FMI Director General 27

28 NUCLEAR SAFETY SERVICES ROUTINE ACCIDENT CALCULATIONS 4/DAY REAL CASE, FUKUSHIMA FMI Director General

29 SPECIAL EVENTS Services for authorites Rescue, boarder guard, radiation and environment autorities Government/ministries Private sector Drifting sea (oil, human beings) Trajectories/nuclear releases Dispersion, e.g. radioactivity/ash Forest fires

30 CONSULTING PROJECTS OF FMI, so far > 100 M Central Asia Caribbean SIDS Pacific SIDS FMI Director General Project Ongoing Project in Preparation Scientific Collaboration Completed cooperation or consulting project in the country

31 THANK YOU! ありがとう FMI Director General