Flood Risk Reduction Strategies and the Early Warning Systems for Alerting the Population in Western Balkan Countries Presentation

Transcription

1 2018/TEL58/DSG/WKSP1/004 Track: 1 Flood Risk Reduction Strategies and the Early Warning Systems for Alerting the Population in Western Balkan Countries Presentation Submitted by: Alfa BK University Workshop on Earthquakes and Waterfloods Monitoring System with the Application of the Internet of Things Taipei, Chinese Taipei 1 October 2018

2 FLOOD RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES AND THE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR ALERTING THE POPULATION IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES Emeritus prof. dr Larisa Jovanović ALFA BK University, Belgrade, Serbia, ECOLOGICA Society, Belgrade, Serbia

3 Introduction Balkan is one of the most dynamic and complex system in the world. It is also extremely fragile and sensitive to the effects of climate change. Climate change is gradually increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and natural disasters in the region, which has led to higher levels of risk for population in Balkan countries. The aim of this presentation is to assess the capacity for flood monitoring and early flood warning systems for risk reduction in Balkan countries.

4 The EU Flood Directive and management of flood risks in Western Balkan In order to avoid and reduce the adverse effects of floods, the European Parliament and Council adopted Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks.tthe flood risk management plans should take into account the specific characteristics of Western Balkan areas they cover and provide for solutions according to the needs and priorities of those areas and promoting the achievement of environmental objectives laid down in Community legislation. The Directive states that flood risk management plans should focus on prediction, prevention, protection and preparedness. The legal framework of flood management in all countries of Western Balkan is aligned with the EU Flood Directive.

5 History of significant floods in the Western Balkans countries The torrential rains and catastrophic floods that raged in the spring 2014 through parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia were unprecedented in the historical record of the region, going back 120 years. In just a few days, some areas received an amount of rain equivalent to one third of their annual total. During 18 years of XXI century there was 22 floods in West Balkan countries.

6 Figure 1. Catastrophic floods in Balkan countries (B&H), May 2014

7 Strategy of Flood Risk Reduction in Serbia In 2017, the Government of the Republic of Serbia adopted the Strategy for Water Management in the Republic of Serbia up to On the basis of the Strategy, sector reforms will be implemented in order to achieve the necessary standards in water management. The new Water Act should be brought to an end in 2019.

8 Structural and nonstructural measures of flood risk reducing Structural measures (construction of flood defenses such as riverbed regulation and the rehabilitation or construction of dikes) were the most prevalent measures in Serbia and B&H in the previous period. Structural measures identified as non-regret in the Action Plan will be implemented through the EU Instrument for pre-accession assistance (IPA 2) and World Bank (WB) programs. Out of 39 areas identified as under high flood risk, implementation of the above mentioned programs is planned for 15.

9 Non-structural measures are proposed for the remaining 24 areas in 19 municipalities. Non-Structural Measures encompass activities that can be categorized as nonphysical (planning and designing structural measures, preparedness measures, environmental measures, government and legislative measures, financial measures) or physical (emergency response measures).

10 The existing system of protection in the Republic of Serbia relies primarily on passive measures. Thus, in the waters of the first order, there were about 2,500 km of embankments, linear structures at a length of about 1,275 km, 58 dams. In spite of such important infrastructure facilities, the concept of the fight against floods has proved to be unsustainable in recent times, especially after the flood events recorded over the past ten years.

11 Flood monitoring and mapping Most countries have developed some sort of flood risk maps for some areas, although it is highly different how these are made. Many countries are referring to the EU Flood Directive (EU, 2007). Flood maps are still missing for many rivers, or are only based on previous floods (Macedonia). The flood risk maps will to some degree be used as a planning tool for future flood protection. The EU Flood Program for B&H recognizes the importance of investing in future risk informed decision making and thus initiated the development of a Flood and Landslide Risk Assessment for the Housing Sector in B&H. The total population living in the areas exposed to very significant risk of flooding (category 4 hazard maps) is 283,777, while the total population living in areas at very significant risk of landslides (category 4 hazard maps) is 260,731.

12 Figure 2.a. Relative flood risk assessment for the housing sector per municipality Figure 2.b. Relative landslide risk assessment for the housing sector per municipality

13 Meteorological and hydrological networks The Weather Watch Department of the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, as part of the World Weather Watch, monitors weather 24 hours a day through its sections: Upper-air Observations Section, makes upper-air and ground measurements of meteorological parameters, process data and gives reports. Radio sounding is the basic method for upper-air measurements and observations and is made by balloon-borne radiosondes. The meteorological network density is very low for Bosnia and Hercegovina and for Montenegro, also. Serbian meteorological network has 458 stations, only 28 of these are automatic. The manual stations observe 3 times per day (53 stations) or once per day (390 stations).

14 Additionally, Serbia is covered by15 Doppler radars. Radar Meteorology Section, using the radar at Kosutnjak, tracks down clouds and cloud systems in the area of 300 km around Belgrade. This is very precise method for time-spatial estimation of precipitation and extreme weather events. Weather Forecast Section, incorporates work of all other Sections of the Weather Watch Department by making operational forecasts. Numerical Weather Prediction Section, makes objective analysis, initialization of meteorological fields and preparation of the boundary conditions for synoptic and mesoscale numerical weather models (ETA model), using collected and processed data. Table 1 gives overview of meteorological network for Balkan countries.

15 Table 1. Overview of the meteorological network Country Manual Automatic Data transfer Radar(s) Albania Immediately - monthly 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina Macedonia Daily 0 Immediate - monthly Montenegro Immediate - monthly 0 Serbia Immediate 15 (1) These radars are old and/or there are problems with maintenance. 2 (1)

16 Figure 3. Monitoring of meteorological data

17 Hydrological network Table 2 gives an overview of the hydrological networks for each country. Compared to the area, the highest numbers of stations are found in Israel, with high density also in Albania, and Serbia. Serbian hydrological network consists of 180 manual stations and 95 automatic stations. The automatic stations are collocated with manual stations, hence the total can be regarded to be 180 stations. Automatic stations measure every hour (10 minutes in some cases) whereas observations at the manual stations are taken once per day. Observations are available on the website of RHMSS and in data base.

18 Table 2. Overview of the hydrological network Country Manual Automatic Hydrological data transfer Albania hours - monthly Bosnia and Herzegovina Daily FYR Macedonia Immediate - daily Montenegro 3 24 Daily - monthly Serbia Immediate

19 Forecasting and modelling Most countries with own forecasting service are running WRF, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro. Serbia have ongoing projects for implementing a domestic weather forecasting model.

20 Table 3. Weather forecasting in different countries Member ECMWF (1) National NWP (2) ECMWF COSMO/ ICON GFS/ NCEP DWD WRF Aladin/ Arpege/ Arome Albania I (3) I I X Bosnia and X X Herzegovina (4) X X X Macedonia C X X (4) X Montenegro C X X X X Serbia X X X X X X (1) X means member, C means cooperating state (2) Which countries have their own numerical weather prediction (3) I - the country receives images (charts) from the large scale forecasters (4) X - the country receives numerical forecasts from the large scale forecasters

21 Several models are used for forecasting for different rivers. For the large ones, it is mainly a combination of statistical methods and river routing. For small and medium catchments, the HBV model is applied. For catchments without models, the forecasts depend on expert judgement by experiences hydrologists. Several weather forecast models are used, including global models (ECMWF, DWD, NMMB) and limited area models (WRF Europe, WRF Balkan, NMMB Europe, NMMB Balkan and ETA).

22 Sava Super Model - Sava SM (Croatia) The Sava Super Model (Sava SM) is a 1D / 2D model, created on the MIKE11-DHI software platform, covering the Sava River Basin on the territory of the Republic of Croatia, from the border with the Republic of Slovenia to the border with the Republic of Serbia. deli&param=sava_sm

23 Figure 4. Hydrological state and prognosis: The scope of the model with indicated prognostic points

24 International cooperation Flooding is quite often a transboundary issue, and all countries have the cooperation with the neighboring countries. All of the assessed countries that are covered by the current extent of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), are now also partners of EFAS. EFAS is a partner-based service under the umbrella of Copernicus Emergency Management Service, monitoring and forecasting flood events across Europe. This system offers probabilistic 1-10 day flood forecasts for all rivers above km 2 in addition to flash flood forecasts and a range of related products: forecast precipitation, remotely sensed and estimated soil moisture content and snow depth. Serbia also has bilateral agreements with Romania and Hungary, and is partner of the Sava Flood Forecasting and Warning System (Sava FFWS).

25 There are some international projects aiming at better flood forecasting across country borders. Two of these are on Balkan, for the Sava basin and for the Drina basin. One example is the project Climate change adaptation in the Western Balkans, managed by GIZ and funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The project focuses on the Drin river, implementing a flood forecasting model for the basin - in Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro and Kosovo.

26 There are also other EU driven projects that bring countries together: IPA FLOODS - has been developed in order to support the approximation to the EU Floods directive in Western Balkans countries. It is a Program for Prevention, Preparedness and Response to Floods ( IPA DRAM - In the same framework, the Program for Disaster Risk Assessment and Mapping (IPA DRAM) contributes to enhance the capabilities of the partner countries to strengthen disaster risk management (

27 Early Warning System Framework for Balkan cities Early Warning Systems (EWS) can play a crucial role in mitigating flood risk by detecting conditions and predicting the onset of a catastrophe before the event occurs, and by providing real time information during an event. EWSs thus fulfil multiple roles as general information systems, decision support systems and alarm systems for multiple stakeholders including government, companies, NGOs and the general population.

28 Figure 5. Model of EWS (

29 Meteoalarm EU ( provides the most relevant information needed to prepare for extreme weather, expected to occur somewhere over Europe (today or tomorrow). This information is presented consistently to ensure coherent interpretation as widely as possible throughout Europe and Balkan countries.

30 Figure 6. Community based flood early warning system

31 CONCLUSION Meteorological and flood records will give an indication of flood risk and help in developing flood forecasts. Real-time monitoring, access to meteorological forecasts and a capacity to issue qualitative or quantitative forecasts will give more time for evacuation and installation of temporary flood protection measures along rivers. Developing comprehensive domestic monitoring tools and early warning systems for flood response at local and regional level requires not only an effective monitoring infrastructure for hydrometeorological variables, but also specific expertise, adequate IT and a solid administrative and legal framework.

32 The capacity for flood monitoring and modelling is highly different in the different countries. Some countries have a large number of automatic meteorological and hydrological stations, others are still relying on manual stations. The main need in Balkan countries are more automatic meteorological and hydrological stations (in mountainous regions, specially). Also, more staff would be necessary to be able to implement and run rainfallrunoff models.

33 REFERENCES Directive 2007/60/EC H. Unnerstall, Legal Framework for Public Participation in Flood Risk Mapping A Comparative Study of the Responses of Different European Member States to Some Requirements of the Floods Directive, Utrecht Law Review, Vol. 8, No. 3, A. Keessen, H.F.M.W. van Rijswick, Adaptation to Climate Change in European Water Law and Policy, Utrecht Law Review, Vol. 8, No. 3, L. Jovanović, D. Stojadinović, Managing of water resources in urban areas of Serbia. 4th European congress on regional geoscientific cartography and information systems, Bologna 2003, Proceedings, Vol. I, p L. Jovanović, The study of floods and landslides in Belgrade. 14th Meeting of the Association of European Geological Societies (MAEGS 14), Torino 2005, Abstracts, pp Strategy for Water Management in the Republic of Serbia up to Law on Water, Official Gazette of RS, No. 30/2010, 93/2012 and 101/2016. EU Flood Recovery Program for Bosnia and Herzegovina

34 Thank you for your attention!