HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES : Overview of main BSHAP results

Transcription

1 Zagreb, Croatia Hotel Sheraton May 2011 NATO SfP Project no HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES : Overview of main BSHAP results Prof. Branislav Glavatović, PPD

2 Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries (BSHAP) Project Proposal preparation we started more then 4 years ago And on 2 nd October 2007, the BSHAP was launched in Podgorica Project was carried out by: 12 institutions from 6 countries, 7 Co-Directors and 48 key members and by other institutional staff Participating countries: Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia FYR Macedonia Montenegro Serbia

3 End Products = Main Goals: 1. Integrated database organized in a GIS application for the whole region: regional earthquake catalogue, seismotectonic data, focal mechanism data, morphological and geological data, etc. 2. Seismogenic model of the Region, 3. Seismic hazard maps, harmonized with the EU standards - as a base for seismic safety improvement, seismic risk management, and seismic design codes, 4. Improved seismic monitoring networks through the deployment of new instrumentation, 5. Improved scientific collaboration between the participating countries and institutions, 6. Trained young scientists in earthquake-hazard related topics, 7. Published and disseminated the major Project results.

4 Some basic time steps during the Project preparation: DPPI INITIATIVE of the EU Stability Pact initiated the idea on preparation of a Project related to seismic hazard assessment and harmonization for the western Balkan countries in the middle of 2006 PROJECT DOCUMENT was prepared through several regional meetings, also supported by DPPI Project Document was presented to the NATO SfP Envirement Panel in the middle of 2007, accepted and Project granted with EUR Project was planned to last from 2007 to 2010, but was postponed for 6 months due to delay in contributions of some participating countries.

5 Total of EUR were awarded by NATO SPS, or by partner institutions: Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey (NPD) Montenegro Seismological Observatory, Podgorica, Montenegro University St. Cyril and Methodius, Skopje, Macedonia Seismological Institute (now Institute of GeoSciences) Tirana, Albania Ministry of Civil Affairs, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Seismological Survey of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Zagreb

6 Main Project working packages 1. Compilation of earthquake catalogue data Structure and contents of main Project working packages 1.1. Earthquake catalogue completion 1.2. Unification of magnitude scale 2. Seismic source modelling 2.1. Seismotectonical elaboration 2.2. Recurrence of earthquakes inside the identified seismic sources 2.3. Modeling of seismic sources using smoothed seismicity approach 3. Determination of GMP models 3.1. Investigation of available GMP models 3.2. Comparison of results from different GMP models 4. Seismic hazard assessment 4.1. Preparation and testing of input database 4.2. Computation of hazard probabilities 5. GIS implementation 5.1. Preparation of GIS background and thematic maps 5.2. Elaboration of hazard GIS maps 6. Equipment purchase and deployment 7. Software purchase 7.1. Accelerogram analysis software 7.2. GIS software 7.3. Alternative hazard computation software with limited license 8. Project coordination activities and issuing information and results in the Project 8.1. WEB site preparation 8.2. Web maintenance, Workshops, coordination and dissemination of the results 8.3. Presentation and dissemination of the final hazard results 9. Training of young scientists

7 Coordination - through WG meetings and workshops: 1) Podgorica, Montenegro Project presentation and launching (October 2, 2007). 2) Ig, Ljubljana, Slovenia (ARSO 7-9 November 2007), covering: Hazard software analysis (OHAZ); Spatial smoothing seismicity; Seismic source zones delineation and characterization and Earthquake catalogue unification. Donation by: Administration of the Republic of Slovenia for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief and Stability Pact/DPPI. 3) Skopje, Macedonia (17-18 December, 2007) to discuss: how to synchronize national earthquake catalogues and seismic zones affecting the region under the study. 4) Dubrovnik, Croatia - WG Meeting (26-27 March 2008) covering discussion and decisions on: Earthquake catalogue compilation, declustering, completeness, format; Seismic source zones delineation and characterization; Strong ground motion attenuation models; Seismic hazard assessment methodology; Seismic instrumentation analysis and selection. 5) Belgrade, Serbia Workshop (25-26 September 2008): National Earthquake Catalogues compilation, Ground Motion Prediction Models, Seismic Hazard estimation software OHAZ further development. 6) Budva, Montenegro - WG Meeting (16-17 December 2008), covering discussion and decisions on: Overview of the ongoing Project results (finalized data bases); Decision on specific elements on thematic maps; Decision on purchasing GIS software (MapInfo+VMapper) and hazard assessment software, decision on ground motion prediction. 7) Divcibare, Serbia - Workshop and GIS training seminar (20 24 April 2009 ): MapInfo and VerticalMapper software training, preparation of thematic layers, georeferencing and digitizing maps. 8) Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina WG Meeting (26-27 October 2009): Overview of the ongoing Project results, Improvements in OHAZ software for seismic hazard calculation and it BSHAP implementation; further thematic maps consideration. 9) Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) Workshop (April 9, 2010): Overview of the BSHAP achieved results, national reports on activities, discussion on open questions. 10) Tirana, Albania Co-directors Meeting (October 29, 2010): Project Progress overview, Seismic Instrumentation, Hazard estimation topics, Maps production, GIS preparation. 11) Zagreb, Croatia - Workshop on final Project results presentation (12-13 May 2011): Presentation of the Project final results; Publishing of the results.

8 For the purpose of the BSHAP Project visibility, the Web site: was design and regularly refreshed for these three and a half of years

9 GIS software MapInfo and Vertical Mapper (mostly) were purchesed, training organized (Divcibare, Serbia) and then GIS layers were developed parallel with the developement of the Project results GIS training, Divcibare, Serbia

10 All national Seismic Monitoring Networks were significantly improved through the BSHAP Seismic BB stations Quantity Bosnia and Herzegovina 5 Croatia 5 Montenegro 3 Total Strong motion stations 13 Quantity Albania 10 Mrs. S. Kovacevic presentation follow Bosnia and Herzegovina 7 Croatia 2 Macedonia 13 Montenegro 3 Serbia 11 Total 36 Protocol on seismic data exchange in real time was signed between the institutions

11 Hazard assesment results BSHAP catalogue was created by integration and filtering (declustering) of all national catalogues countries in the region; In 2 nd step: unification of magnitude type, coordinate systems and clarification of doubtful events is ongoing, due to the produced delays in contributions Prof. M. Herak presentation follow

12 Contributions from all 6 countries on active tectonic fault systems were defined, digitized and integrated and seismotectonic zones delinated and characterized Miss J. Mihaljevic presentation follow

13 SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESMENT Prof. N. Kuka presentation follow on the methodology and software Prof. Z. Milutinovic presentation follow on seismic hazard assesment results

14 Numerous End Users of the BSHAP results can be recognized: 1. Civil protection agencies, 2. Agencies for urban planning, 3. Ministries responsible for seismic safety improvement and seismic risk management, 4. Authorities for seismic design code legislation, 5. National seismic networks, 6. Seismological, geological and geophysical institutions in the Region, 7. Insurance companies, 8. The whole community of the Region - by implementing seismic hazard maps in planning, design and building of earthquake resistance structures

15 BSHAP relation to FP7 Project Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) Regional research Project Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) financed through the FP7 Programme was launched in the middle of 2009 and MSO was appointed as the regional partner for the BSHAP Region. The full collaboration between BSHAP and SHARE unfortunately was limited by the decision of BSHAP Dubrovnik Meeting (March 2008) not to allow BSHAP earthquake catalogue to be used for any purposes untill the end of the Project. To awoyed excluding the BSHAP region from SHARE seismic hazard maps, MSO prepared a separate regional earthquake catalogue using its own data (ML 4) and all the published catalogue data and the results of additionally realized seismotectonic research and made it available for SHARE.

16 Concluding remarks Improved cooperation between all the institutions in the western Balkan region involved in seismic hazard assessment and seismic risk reduction Significantly improved technical capacity of all national seismic networks in the western Balkan countries and seismic monitoring capacity of the region Established real-time seismic data exchange between national seismic networks Advocated for the importance of mitigation of seismic risk in the region and education of society Improved international cooperation (e.g. with EU institutions) Introduced many governmental, scientific and public institutions to the benefits of the NATO SPS Programme Fostered other NATO SfP Projects Young scientist trained in the methodology of seismic hazard assessment through Project workshops Fostered further cooperation and collaboration between partner institutions Convinced that technical support and advising made by SfP staff was exelent during complete realization of the Project

17 Additional conclusions: 1. We reached very valuable scientific experience in such a complex Project with so many participating countries and institutions, 2. We collected new knowledge on seismotectonics and seismicity of the Region, 3. Realized the need to devote more scientific efforts in research of seismotectonic and geodynamic processes, and to develope institutional capacity for that kind of research, Some difficulties in coordination and the delays were caused mostly by: The complexity of the Project (6 countries and 14 institutions) Absense in some cases of proper personal motivation for reaching the results The luck of experience in such kind of projects The luck of high quality expertise in seismotectonic analysis