PSHA results for the BSHAP region
|
|
- Sabina Norma Nelson
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme CLOSING CONFERENCE OF THE NATO SfP (BSHAP) PROJECT Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries October 23, 2011 Ankara, Turkey PSHA results for the BSHAP region Neki Kuka Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment Polytechnic University of Tirana
2 Mathematical Background Ø Mathematical background background:: total probability theorem (Cornell )). P(U > u ) = òò mmax m0 R P(U > u ) m, R) f M (m) f R ( R) dm dr P(U>u m,r): probability that ground motion level u will be exceeded, P(U>u m,r): given an earthq earthq.. of mag mag.. m on a source at distance R from the site site;; fm(m) (m):: probability distribution of magnitude, fr(r) (R):: probability distribution of site site--source distance distance;; m0, mmax: lower and upper bound of magnitude, m0<m< mmax. Ø Summation over all seismic sources gives the anual rate of ground motion exceedance exceedance:: n mu = å i= 1 n mi (u ) = å i= 1 l i (m0 ) ò ò R mmax m0 P(U > u ) m, R ) f M (m)i f R ( R)i dm dr λi(m0): the annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes with m m0. Assuming earthquake process is Poissonian Poissonian,, prob prob.. that level u will be exceeded at least once during the time period T: PT (U > u) = 1- e- m T u
3 Mathematical Background Ø Except probability distributions of the magnitude fm(m), and site site--to to-source distance fr(r) (R),, implementation of the PSHA also requires requires:: A spatial model to describe reliably the seismic activity rate λi(m0). A model to characterize the process that generates the ground motion P(U>u m,r) P(U>u m,r).. fm(m) is characterized by doubly doubly--truncated exponential model model:: b e- b ( m- m0 ) f M ( m) mo, mmax ) =, m0 m mmax - b ( mmax - m0 ) 1- e Ø λi(m0): different approaches proposed, are distinguished on the way they model seismicity within an area area:: assuming the earthquake rate of occurrence is uniform throughout (source zone approach), or considering it as spatial variable (gridded seismicity seismicity:: spatially smoothed, kernel methodology methodology)).
4 Mathematical Background P(U>u m,r): Assessment of the conditional exceedance probability of a specified level u of seismic intensity U on a certain site, requires an adequate model to predict the ground motion generated at a site when on a source zone has occurred an earthquake with magnitude m and distance R from this site: F U (u*): value of the cdf of the random variable U that corresponds to the fixed values of mag. m, and the distance to the eq. source r. Usually U is characterized by the lognormal law. In this case: µ U: conditioned mathematical expectation of ln(u) for a fixed (m,r); Φ: cdf of the standardized normal distribution N(0,1); σ lnu : logarithmic standard deviation of the regressive model (PGME). Generally: P U u m r F u * * ( >, ) = 1 - U ( ) * * ln u - mu P( U > u m, r) = 1 - F ( ) s ln( U ) = b + f ( M ) + f ( R) + f ( M, R) + f ( S) + f ( F) + e lnu
5 Seismicity Modeling Generally, four different classes of earthquake source models are used for seismic hazard assessment (NSHM, USGS, 2008): 1) Smoothed gridded seismicity, 2) Uniform background source zones, 3) Geodetically derived source zones, 4) Faults. The first two models are based on the earthquake catalog and characterize the hazard from earthquakes between M5 and M The geodetically derived source zones are used to assess the hazard between M6.5 and the largest potential earthquake in a region. Faults mostly contribute to the hazard for earthquakes stronger than M6.5.
6 Seismicity Modeling Fault sources an geodetically derived source zones Within the frame of the BSHAP project, it has been impossible to provide the relevant information, even for the faults that have generated strongest earthquakes with Mw> 6.5 in our region. Seismic hazard assessment is accomplished using the smoothed gridded seismicity methodology. Random seismicity-derived sources account for two types of earthquakes: 1) those that occur off known faults, and 2) moderate-size earthquakes that are not modeled on faults. The gridded-seismicity models are based on historical earthquakes and account for the observation that stronger earthquakes occur at near clusters of previous smaller earthquakes.
7 Application of PSHA requires: PSHA implementation (BSHAP) a homogenous catalog of historical earthquakes, a description of possible faults and earthquake sources, the parameters describing adequately seismicity for faults and earthquake sources, appropriate PGM models in region. The problems related with compiling of a homogenous earthquake catalog - unified in terms of M W mag. scale, completeness magnitude levels, declustering, etc., were just presented by Prof. Duni. Dr. J. Mihaljevic also presented in details the identification, delineation and characterization of the seismotectonic source zones in the BSHAP project region.
8 Estimation of recurrence statistics To calculate the hazard from a particular source, a doubly-truncated exponential model for G-R magnitude-frequency distribution is used: l m exp[ - b( m - m0)] - exp[ - b ( mmax - m0 )] = l m 0 1- exp[ - b( m - m )] max 0, m 0 < m< m max λ m : the mean annual number of earthquakes with M m. λ m0 : the mean annual number of earthquakes with M m 0. m 0 : minimum magnitude with engineering interest (m 0 =4.0 is used) m max : maximum magnitude that can be generated in a seismic source. The recurrence statistics (a- and b-values, λ m0 ) are obtained from analysis of the BSHAP catalog, using a MLE method that accounts for variable completeness (Bollinger et al. 1993; Weichert 1980, Berril and Davis 1980). The recurrence statistics are estimated for about 70 source zones.
9 Estimation of maximum magnitude M max is a difficult parameter to be assessed because the database to derive it is statistically very limited. M max, should be relatively large, because big earthquakes may have a very large interval occurrence, that sometimes exceeds years and probably are not evidenced in the historical or geological documents. Estimation of M max to some extent should reflect the uncertainties that associate this parameter. M max used in our hazard calculations, is source zone dependent. Its assessment is based considering the maximum observed magnitude in a seismotectonic zone and the respective geological settings. For every zone, we have accepted the estimations given by each partner country for the relevant zones.
10 The doubly-truncated G-R exponential model is characterized by three parameters: λ m0, b, and m max. Interactive fitting 0f the G-R model After their assessment, a final manual check and tuning is applied for every zone, inspecting carefully how the model obtained fits the respective observed data. This procedure enables an accurate calculation of the seismicity rates. Cumulative number / year
11 Predictive Ground Motion Models Due to the absence of sufficient strong motion data, an adequate attenuation model is not available so far for our region. Hence, we have to consider PGM models from regions surrounding the country, or models derived for similar seismotectonic characteristics. New PGME are derived last years for the European-Middle East region (Bindi et al. 2009, Akkar and Bommer 2010), and global models worldwide used (NGA project (USA 2008), Cauzzi & Faccioli 2008), using larger and improved ground motions databases. PGME-s are generally the component with the largest influence on the seismic hazard assessment. Therefore, the seismic hazard outputs obtained using different models are combined into a single map, according to a weighting scheme in the framework of a logic-tree approach.
12 Results of seismic hazard assessment Evaluation of the seismic hazard is performed using the smoothed- gridded methodology (Frankel 1995, Lapajne et al., 2003), which is based on seismic activity rate inferred from the earthquake catalogue. Hazard was calculated at grid cells (10x10 km) covering the BSHAP region. Hazard calculations are accomplished using the OHAZ 6.0 software, a joint development of Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia and the Institute of Geosciences of Albania, which is greatly improved for the BSHAP project. At first, the seismicity rates are determined at every grid cell within [ E, N], by counting the earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to the minimum magnitude (M W =4.0), and adjusting this value using a maximum likelihood method (Weichert, 1980) that accounts for variable completeness.
13 Results of seismic hazard assessment Then, the adjusted earthquake rates are spatially smoothed using a two-dimensional Gaussian smoothing operator with correlation distance 20 km, and an elliptical smoothing oriented according to the main tectonic faults within specific seismotectonic zones. Hazard curves that depict the annual frequency of exceedance at given ground-motion levels are calculated at the cells included within a smaller grid ([ E, N]) N]). To calculate hazard from a particular source, we apply a doubly-truncated exponential magnitude-frequency distribution, with b-value corresponding to this zone. M min is M W =4.0, while M max varies according to the respective zones from 5.6 up to 7.5.
14 Results of seismic hazard assessment The hazard is calculated for potential earthquakes at each grid cell. Earthquakes smaller than M6.0 are characterized as point sources at the center of each cell, whereas earthquakes larger than M6 assume hypothetical finite vertical or dipping faults centered on the source grid. Lengths of the finite faults are determined using the Wells and Coppersmith relations, accounting for faulting styles. Calculations are accomplished using four PGMEs: Bindi et al (Bi09), Akkar and Bommer 2010 (AB10), Boore and Atkinson 2008 (BA08), and Cauzzi and Faccioli 2008 (CF08). Assessment is applied for rock conditions, with 800 m/sec shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the soil section. The maximum source-sitesite distance and the magnitude range used, were choosen in accordance with their magnitude-distancedistance domain: D max =100 km and 5 M 7.5 for Bi09 and AB10; D max =200 km and 5.0 M S 7.5 for BA08; D max =150 km and 5 M W 7.5 for BA08.
15 Seismic Hazard Maps The mean hazard map is calculated using the relevant estimates from these models. The respective weights are selected based on a report on the evaluation of PGMEs within the context of SHARE project (M.Segou and S.Akkar, August 2010), as well as on the results of a investigation by Prof. S. Akkar on the validity and ranking of selected PGMEs, using the available strong motion records in the BSHAP region. Following the recomendations of Prof. S. Akkar, we have accepted the weights w=0.3 for AB10 and Bi09, and w=0.2 for BA08 and CF08. The seismic hazard maps we obtained by interpolation of the mean hazard curves at specified annual frequency of exceedance. Seismic hazard maps for PGA corresponding to 10% PE in 10 years (95- year return period), and 10% PE in 50 years (475-years return period) are calculated. Mapping software: GMT (version 4.5.5).
16 Fig. shows the seismic hazard map for PGA on uniform firm rock site conditions (800m/s shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the crust) at 10-percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to the 47-year return period. In compliance with EC8 standards, the map presenting the PGA at 10- percent PE in 10 years, (95- year return period) is also prepared. Seismic Hazard Maps
17 Conclusions The PSHA for the Western Balkan Countries builds upon extensive research and database compilation carried out over the last three years by the institutions participating in the BSHAP project. Hazard assessment is based on the smoothed-gridded seismicity approach. The seismic hazard maps derived in this project are a good basis to characterize the seismic hazard in our region. They will help the national authorities, public and private institutions, civil emergencies agencies, etc. for urban planning, disaster preparedness, etc. But they should not be considered as national documents for design bulding codes. Every country, based on the seismological database (BSHAP catalogue), and the present seismotectonic zones delineation and characterization, methodology and experience from BSHAP project, as well as the present maps, have to improve the seismic hazard assessment for the relevant territories.
18 Recommendations Improving of the seismological and seismotectonic databases. Completing the BSHAP catalogue with events M W 3.5 (better for M W 3.0); eleminating of possible inaccuracies; completing of the extended database in format we already have defined and agreed. Improving of the BSHAP seismotectonic databases (some zones are too small and difficult to estimate reliably the seismicity parameters, especially for the low seismicity areas). Identifying and characterization of the large faults in the BSHAP region, which have generated earthquakes with M W 6.5; combining the smoothed gridded seismicity with the fault generated seismic hazard. Creating of the strong motion database for the BSHAP area; deriving a PGME model - more adequate for our region.
19 Thank You!
Towards a New Seismic Hazard Assessment of Albania
Towards a New Seismic Hazard Assessment of Albania Ll. Duni & N. Kuka Institute of Geosciences, Polytechnic University of Tirana, Albania Sh. Kuka, A. Fundo Faculty of Mathematical and Physical Engineering,
More informationUnified BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue
NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme CLOSING CONFERENCE OF THE NATO SfP 983054 (BSHAP) PROJECT Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries October 24, 2011 Ankara, Turkey
More informationHARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES : Overview of main BSHAP results
Zagreb, Croatia Hotel Sheraton 12-13 May 2011 NATO SfP Project no. 983054 HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES : Overview of main BSHAP results Prof. Branislav Glavatović,
More informationAN OVERVIEW AND GUIDELINES FOR PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING
CO 2 TRACCS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP Bucharest, 2 September, 2012 AN OVERVIEW AND GUIDELINES FOR PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING M. Semih YÜCEMEN Department of Civil Engineering and Earthquake Studies
More informationNATO SfP HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES (BSHAP)
Information Day NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme: Enhancing Partnership through Cooperation 4 February 2010, Istanbul/Turkey Suleyman Demirel Cultural Centre / Istanbul Technical University
More informationEARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN
EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN Dr Ilaria Mosca 1 and Dr Natalya Silacheva 2 1 British Geological Survey, Edinburgh (UK) imosca@nerc.ac.uk 2 Institute of Seismology, Almaty (Kazakhstan) silacheva_nat@mail.ru
More informationResults Achieved and Improvements Needed in the Field of Seismic Hazard Assessment of Republic of Macedonia
Results Achieved and Improvements Needed in the Field of Seismic Hazard Assessment of Republic of Macedonia R.B. Salic, Z.V. Milutinovic & M.A. Garevski Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering
More informationRegional Workshop on Essential Knowledge of Site Evaluation Report for Nuclear Power Plants.
Regional Workshop on Essential Knowledge of Site Evaluation Report for Nuclear Power Plants. Development of seismotectonic models Ramon Secanell Kuala Lumpur, 26-30 August 2013 Overview of Presentation
More informationL. Danciu, D. Giardini, J. Wößner Swiss Seismological Service ETH-Zurich Switzerland
BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR ELABORATION OF NDPs AND NAs OF THE EUROCODES IN THE BALKAN REGION Experience on the field of seismic hazard zonation SHARE Project L. Danciu, D. Giardini, J. Wößner Swiss Seismological
More informationUPDATED PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR TURKEY
UPDATED PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR TURKEY S. Akkar, T. Azak, T. Çan, U. Çeken, M.B. Demircioğlu, T.Y. Duman, M. Erdik, S. Ergintav, F.T. Kadirioğlu, D. Kalafat, Ö. Kale, R.F. Kartal, K. Kekovalı,
More informationPROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING IN SLOVENIA
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING IN SLOVENIA Janez K LAPAJNE 1, Barbara SKET-MOTNIKAR 2 And Polona ZUPANCIC 3 SUMMARY This study of probabilistic seismic hazard mapping in Slovenia is based on: 1 the
More informationOverview of Seismic PHSA Approaches with Emphasis on the Management of Uncertainties
H4.SMR/1645-29 "2nd Workshop on Earthquake Engineering for Nuclear Facilities: Uncertainties in Seismic Hazard" 14-25 February 2005 Overview of Seismic PHSA Approaches with Emphasis on the Management of
More informationTHE ECAT SOFTWARE PACKAGE TO ANALYZE EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUES
THE ECAT SOFTWARE PACKAGE TO ANALYZE EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUES Tuba Eroğlu Azak Akdeniz University, Department of Civil Engineering, Antalya Turkey tubaeroglu@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstract: Earthquakes are one of
More informationUniform Hazard Spectrum(UHS) for performance based seismic design
Uniform Hazard Spectrum(UHS) for performance based seismic design *Jun-Kyoung Kim 1), Soung-Hoon Wee 2) and Seong-Hwa Yoo 2) 1) Department of Fire Protection and Disaster Prevention, Semyoung University,
More informationSEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND SITE-DEPENDENT RESPONSE SPECTRA PARAMETERS OF THE CURRENT SEISMIC DESIGN CODE IN ALBANIA
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND SITE-DEPENDENT RESPONSE SPECTRA PARAMETERS OF THE CURRENT SEISMIC DESIGN CODE IN ALBANIA Ll. Duni & N. Kuka Institute of Seismology, Academy of Sciences, Tirana, Albania ABSTRACT:
More informationSeismic hazard modeling for Bulgaria D. Solakov, S. Simeonova
Seismic hazard modeling for Bulgaria D. Solakov, S. Simeonova Bulgarian seismic network and foreign stations used in epicenter location Sismicity in Bulgaria and surroundings (M 4.) Epicentral map for
More informationDevelopment of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for International Sites, Challenges and Guidelines
Development of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for International Sites, Challenges and Guidelines ABSTRACT Dr. Antonio Fernandez Ares Paul C. Rizzo Associates, Inc. 500 Penn Center Boulevard, Suite
More informationSEISMIC HAZARD CHARACTERIZATION AND RISK EVALUATION USING GUMBEL S METHOD OF EXTREMES (G1 AND G3) AND G-R FORMULA FOR IRAQ
13 th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Vancouver, B.C., Canada August 1-6, 2004 Paper No. 2898 SEISMIC HAZARD CHARACTERIZATION AND RISK EVALUATION USING GUMBEL S METHOD OF EXTREMES (G1 AND G3)
More informationGEM's community tools for probabilistic seismic hazard modelling and calculation
GEM's community tools for probabilistic seismic hazard modelling and calculation Marco Pagani, GEM Secretariat, Pavia, IT Damiano Monelli, GEM Model Facility, SED-ETH, Zürich, CH Graeme Weatherill, GEM
More informationProbabilistic seismic hazard maps for the Japanese islands
Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 20 (2000) 485±491 www.elsevier.com/locate/soildyn Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the Japanese islands A. Kijko a, A.O. OÈ ncel b, * a Council for Geoscience,
More information5. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) proposed by C.A. Cornell (1968) used to determine the design earthquake for all locations in USA. PSHA gives a relative quantification i of the design earthquake,
More informationSEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS. Instructional Material Complementing FEMA 451, Design Examples Seismic Hazard Analysis 5a - 1
SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS Instructional Material Complementing FEMA 451, Design Examples Seismic Hazard Analysis 5a - 1 Seismic Hazard Analysis Deterministic procedures Probabilistic procedures USGS hazard
More informationNew developments in the evaluation of seismic hazard for Romania
New developments in the evaluation of seismic hazard for Romania Florin Pavel Seismic Risk Assessment Research Center CONTENTS Introduction Seismicity of Romania Ground motion models Evaluation of seismic
More informationA NEW PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MODEL FOR NEW ZEALAND
A NEW PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MODEL FOR NEW ZEALAND Mark W STIRLING 1 SUMMARY The Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS) has developed a new seismic hazard model for New Zealand that incorporates
More information6 Source Characterization
6 Source Characterization Source characterization describes the rate at which earthquakes of a given magnitude, and dimensions (length and width) occur at a given location. For each seismic source, the
More informationModule 7 SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (Lectures 33 to 36)
Lecture 35 Topics Module 7 SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (Lectures 33 to 36) 7.4.4 Predictive Relationships 7.4.5 Temporal Uncertainty 7.4.6 Poisson Model 7.4.7 Other Models 7.4.8 Model Applicability 7.4.9 Probability
More informationDevelopment of U. S. National Seismic Hazard Maps and Implementation in the International Building Code
Development of U. S. National Seismic Hazard Maps and Implementation in the International Building Code Mark D. Petersen (U.S. Geological Survey) http://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazmaps/ Seismic hazard analysis
More informationGMPEs for Active Crustal Regions: Applicability for Controlling Sources
GMPEs for Active Crustal Regions: Applicability for Controlling Sources Jonathan P. Stewart University of California, Los Angeles March 19, 2013 Oakland Airport Hilton Outline GMPEs considered GMPE parameter
More informationAppendix O: Gridded Seismicity Sources
Appendix O: Gridded Seismicity Sources Peter M. Powers U.S. Geological Survey Introduction The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) is a forecast of earthquakes that fall
More informationSEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN ROMANIA
Mircea Radulian, Magurele, Ilfov, Romania mircea@infp.ro SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN ROMANIA 13-14 March 2014 SciNetNatHaz Workshop Istanbul 1 Summary Seismic activity in Romania Input data A few significant
More informationDefinitions. Seismic Risk, R (Σεισμική διακινδύνευση) = risk of damage of a structure
SEISMIC HAZARD Definitions Seismic Risk, R (Σεισμική διακινδύνευση) = risk of damage of a structure Seismic Hazard, Η (Σεισμικός κίνδυνος) = expected intensity of ground motion at a site Vulnerability,
More informationPrediction of elastic displacement response spectra in Europe and the Middle East
EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn. 2007; 36:1275 1301 Published online 27 February 2007 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com)..679 Prediction of elastic
More informationWP2: Framework for Seismic Hazard Analysis of Spatially Distributed Systems
Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis for Buildings, Lifeline Networks and Infrastructures Safety Gain WP2: Framework for Seismic Hazard Analysis of Spatially Distributed Systems Graeme Weatherill,
More informationI N T R O D U C T I O N T O P R O B A B I L I S T I C S E I S M I C H A Z A R D A N A LY S I S
I N T R O D U C T I O N T O P R O B A B I L I S T I C S E I S M I C H A Z A R D A N A LY S I S J A C K W. B A K E R Copyright 2013 Jack W. Baker Preferred citation for this document: Baker, Jack W. (2013)
More informationScientific Research on the Cascadia Subduction Zone that Will Help Improve Seismic Hazard Maps, Building Codes, and Other Risk-Mitigation Measures
Scientific Research on the Cascadia Subduction Zone that Will Help Improve Seismic Hazard Maps, Building Codes, and Other Risk-Mitigation Measures Art Frankel U.S. Geological Survey Seattle, WA GeoPrisms-Earthscope
More informationNaturgefahren Erdbebenrisiko. Seismische Gefährdungsanalyse. Evaluation of earthquake hazard
Naturgefahren Erdbebenrisiko Nachdiplomkurs in angewandten Erdwissenschaft 15-19 Mai 2000 Seismische Gefährdungsanalyse ------------------------------------------- Evaluation of earthquake hazard Souad
More informationQuantifying the effect of declustering on probabilistic seismic hazard
Proceedings of the Ninth Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering Building an Earthquake-Resilient Society 14-16 April, 2011, Auckland, New Zealand Quantifying the effect of declustering on probabilistic
More informationSEISMIC INPUT FOR CHENNAI USING ADAPTIVE KERNEL DENSITY ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE
SEISMIC INPUT FOR CHENNAI USING ADAPTIVE KERNEL DENSITY ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE G. R. Dodagoudar Associate Professor, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai - 600036, goudar@iitm.ac.in P. Ragunathan
More informationI N T R O D U C T I O N T O P R O B A B I L I S T I C S E I S M I C H A Z A R D A N A LY S I S
I N T R O D U C T I O N T O P R O B A B I L I S T I C S E I S M I C H A Z A R D A N A LY S I S J A C K W. B A K E R Copyright 2015 Jack W. Baker Preferred citation for this document: Baker, Jack W. (2015)
More informationPROBABILITY-BASED DESIGN EARTHQUAKE LOAD CONSIDERING ACTIVE FAULT
PROBABILITY-BASED DESIGN EARTHUAKE LOAD CONSIDERING ACTIVE FAULT Jun KANDA And Ichiro SATOH SUMMARY The probability-based structural design can provide a specific safety performance demand for the earthquake
More informationAPRIL Progress Report
HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES BSHAP (SfP Project Number 983054) APRIL Progress Report - 2010 Submitted to the Science for Peace and Security Programme Public Diplomacy
More informationOccurrence of negative epsilon in seismic hazard analysis deaggregation, and its impact on target spectra computation
Occurrence of negative epsilon in seismic hazard analysis deaggregation, and its impact on target spectra computation Lynne S. Burks 1 and Jack W. Baker Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
More informationDiscussing SHARE PSHA results for France
International Symposium Qualification of dynamic analyses of dams and their equipments and of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe 31th August 2nd September 2016 Saint-Malo AFPS Working Group
More informationSeismic Analysis of Structures Prof. T.K. Datta Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi. Lecture 03 Seismology (Contd.
Seismic Analysis of Structures Prof. T.K. Datta Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi Lecture 03 Seismology (Contd.) In the previous lecture, we discussed about the earth
More informationSeismic Hazard & Risk Assessment
Seismic Hazard & Risk Assessment HAZARD ASSESSMENT INVENTORY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK VULNERABILITIES RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND SOFTWARE LOSS RESULTS Event Local Site Effects: Attenuation of Seismic Energy
More informationAn Introduction to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) Jack W. Baker
An Introduction to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) Jack W. Baker Version 1.3 October 1 st, 2008 Acknowledgements This document is based in part on an excerpt from a report originally written
More informationDIRECT HAZARD ANALYSIS OF INELASTIC RESPONSE SPECTRA
DIRECT HAZARD ANALYSIS OF INELASTIC RESPONSE SPECTRA ABSTRACT Y. Bozorgnia, M. Hachem, and K.W. Campbell Associate Director, PEER, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA Senior Associate,
More informationUpdating the Chiou and YoungsNGAModel: Regionalization of Anelastic Attenuation
Updating the Chiou and YoungsNGAModel: Regionalization of Anelastic Attenuation B. Chiou California Department of Transportation R.R. Youngs AMEC Environment & Infrastructure SUMMARY: (10 pt) Ground motion
More informationThe Ranges of Uncertainty among the Use of NGA-West1 and NGA-West 2 Ground Motion Prediction Equations
The Ranges of Uncertainty among the Use of NGA-West1 and NGA-West 2 Ground otion Prediction Equations T. Ornthammarath Assistant Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of
More informationPROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS AT GROUND SURFACE IN JAPAN BASED ON SITE EFFECTS ESTIMATED FROM OBSERVED STRONG-MOTION RECORDS
13 th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Vancouver, B.C., Canada August 1-6, 2004 Paper No. 3488 PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS AT GROUND SURFACE IN JAPAN BASED ON SITE EFFECTS ESTIMATED FROM
More informationTHE EFFECT OF THE LATEST SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE TO MALAYSIAN PENINSULAR
JURNAL KEJURUTERAAN AWAM (JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING) Vol. 15 No. 2, 2002 THE EFFECT OF THE LATEST SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE TO MALAYSIAN PENINSULAR Assoc. Prof. Dr. Azlan Adnan Hendriyawan Structural Earthquake
More informationGround Motion Studies for Critical Sites in North-West Bangladesh
Science & Technology Conference 2011 Vienna, June 8-10, 2011 Ground Motion Studies for Critical Sites in North-West Bangladesh Dr. Tahmeed M. Al Hussaini Professor of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University
More informationDCPP Seismic FAQ s Geosciences Department 08/04/2011 GM1) What magnitude earthquake is DCPP designed for?
GM1) What magnitude earthquake is DCPP designed for? The new design ground motions for DCPP were developed after the discovery of the Hosgri fault. In 1977, the largest magnitude of the Hosgri fault was
More informationTHE ROLE OF EPSILON FOR THE IDENTIFICATION OF GROUPS OF EARTHQUAKE INPUTS OF GIVEN HAZARD
THE ROLE OF EPSILON FOR THE IDENTIFICATION OF GROUPS OF EARTHQUAKE INPUTS OF GIVEN HAZARD Tomaso TROMBETTI Stefano SILVESTRI * Giada GASPARINI University of Bologna, Italy THE ISSUE 2 THE ISSUE 3 m 3 u
More informationSouthern California Earthquake Center Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) Thomas H. Jordan
Southern California Earthquake Center Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) Thomas H. Jordan SCEC Director & Professor, University of Southern California 5th Joint Meeting of
More informationCodal provisions of seismic hazard in Northeast India
Codal provisions of seismic hazard in Northeast India Sandip Das 1, Vinay K. Gupta 1, * and Ishwer D. Gupta 2 1 Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur 208 016, India 2
More informationModule 7 SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (Lectures 33 to 36)
Lecture 34 Topics Module 7 SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (Lectures 33 to 36) 7.3 DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS 7.4 PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS 7.4.1 Earthquake Source Characterization 7.4.2
More informationWhat is the impact of the August 24, 2016 Amatrice earthquake on the seismic hazard assessment in central Italy?
What is the impact of the August 24, 2016 Amatrice earthquake on the seismic hazard assessment in central Italy? MAURA MURRU *, MATTEO TARONI, AYBIGE AKINCI, GIUSEPPE FALCONE Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica
More informationlog 4 0.7m log m Seismic Analysis of Structures by TK Dutta, Civil Department, IIT Delhi, New Delhi. Module 1 Seismology Exercise Problems :
Seismic Analysis of Structures by TK Dutta, Civil Department, IIT Delhi, New Delhi. Module Seismology Exercise Problems :.4. Estimate the probabilities of surface rupture length, rupture area and maximum
More informationIGC. 50 th INDIAN GEOTECHNICAL CONFERENCE PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR WARANGAL CONSIDERING SINGLE SEISMOGENIC ZONING
50 th IGC 50 th INDIAN GEOTECHNICAL CONFERENCE 17 th 19 th DECEMBER 2015, Pune, Maharashtra, India Venue: College of Engineering (Estd. 1854), Pune, India PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR WARANGAL
More informationCHARACTERIZING SPATIAL CROSS-CORRELATION BETWEEN GROUND- MOTION SPECTRAL ACCELERATIONS AT MULTIPLE PERIODS. Nirmal Jayaram 1 and Jack W.
Proceedings of the 9th U.S. National and 10th Canadian Conference on Earthquake Engineering Compte Rendu de la 9ième Conférence Nationale Américaine et 10ième Conférence Canadienne de Génie Parasismique
More informationProbabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Nepal considering Uniform Density Model
Proceedings of IOE Graduate Conference, 2016 pp. 115 122 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Nepal considering Uniform Density Model Sunita Ghimire 1, Hari Ram Parajuli 2 1 Department of Civil Engineering,
More informationEarthquake catalogues and preparation of input data for PSHA science or art?
Earthquake catalogues and preparation of input data for PSHA science or art? Marijan Herak Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia e-mail: herak@irb.hr EARTHQUAKE
More informationProcedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Incomplete and Uncertain Data
Procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Incomplete and Uncertain Data A. Kijko (1), A. Smit (1), G.A. Papadopoulos (2), 1. University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre University of Pretoria,
More informationI.D. Gupta. Central Water and Power Research Station Khadakwasla, Pune ABSTRACT
ISET Journal of Earthquake Technology, Paper No. 480, Vol. 44, No. 1, March 2007, pp. 127 167 PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS METHOD FOR MAPPING OF SPECTRAL AMPLITUDES AND OTHER DESIGN- SPECIFIC
More informationSeismic Performance Assessment Uses Incremental Dynamic Analysis
J. Basic. Appl. Sci. Res., 3(8)757-764, 2013 2013, TextRoad Publication ISSN 2090-4304 Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research www.textroad.com Seismic Performance Assessment Uses Incremental
More informationSeismic Hazard Assessment for Specified Area
ESTIATION OF AXIU REGIONAL AGNITUDE m At present there is no generally accepted method for estimating the value of the imum regional magnitude m. The methods for evaluating m fall into two main categories:
More informationPreliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Nuclear Power Plant Bohunice (Slovakia) site
Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Nuclear Power Plant Bohunice (Slovakia) site P. Labák, A. Bystrická & P. Moczo Geophysical Institute, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Dúbravská cesta
More informationGround Motion Prediction Equations: Past, Present, and Future
Ground Motion Prediction Equations: Past, Present, and Future The 2014 William B. Joyner Lecture David M. Boore As presented at the SMIP15 meeting, Davis, California, 22 October 2015 The William B. Joyner
More informationSELECTION OF GROUND-MOTION PREDICTION EQUATIONS FOR PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS : CASE STUDY OF TAIWAN
5 th IASPEI / IAEE International Symposium Effects of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion SELECTION OF GROUND-MOTION PREDICTION EQUATIONS FOR PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS : CASE STUDY OF TAIWAN
More informationReliability-based calibration of design seismic response spectra and structural acceptance criteria
Reliability-based calibration of design seismic response spectra and structural acceptance criteria C. Loth & J. W. Baker Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Stanford University ABSTRACT:
More informationIncorporating simulated Hikurangi subduction interface spectra into probabilistic hazard calculations for Wellington
Incorporating simulated Hikurangi subduction interface spectra into probabilistic hazard calculations for Wellington G.H. McVerry & C. Holden GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand. 2014 NZSEE Conference
More informationRecolouring GSHAP: Challenging the status quo of Australian earthquake hazard
Recolouring GSHAP: Challenging the status quo of Australian earthquake hazard Trevor Allen, Jonathan Griffin, Dan Clark, Hadi Ghasemi, Mark Leonard & Theodora Volti Australia in the Global Context SCRs
More informationThe effect of bounds on magnitude, source-to-site distance and site condition in PSHA-based ground motion selection
The effect of bounds on magnitude, source-to-site distance and site condition in PSHA-based ground motion selection K. Tarbali & B.A. Bradley Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University
More informationComment on Why Do Modern Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates? by Julian J. Bommer and Norman A.
Comment on Why Do Modern Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates? by Julian J. Bommer and Norman A. Abrahamson Zhenming Wang Kentucky Geological Survey 8 Mining and
More informationGutenberg-Richter recurrence law to seismicity analysis of Bangladesh
IABSE-JSCE Joint Conference on Advances in Bridge Engineering-III, August 21-22, 2015, Dhaka, Bangladesh. ISBN: 978-984-33-9313-5 Amin, Okui, Bhuiyan, Ueda (eds.) www.iabse-bd.org Gutenberg-Richter recurrence
More informationEstimation of Regional Seismic Hazard in the Korean Peninsula Using Historical Earthquake Data between A.D. 2 and 1995
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 94, No. 1, pp. 269 284, February 2004 Estimation of Regional Seismic Hazard in the Korean Peninsula Using Historical Earthquake Data between A.D.
More informationSeismic Source Characterization in Siting New Nuclear Power Plants in the Central and Eastern United States
Seismic Source Characterization in Siting New Nuclear Power Plants in the Central and Eastern United States ABSTRACT : Yong Li 1 and Nilesh Chokshi 2 1 Senior Geophysicist, 2 Deputy Director of DSER Nuclear
More informationEstimation of Gutenberg-Richter seismicity parameters for the Bundaberg region using piecewise extended Gumbel analysis
Estimation of Gutenberg-Richter seismicity parameters for the Bundaberg region using piecewise extended Gumbel analysis Abstract Mike Turnbull Central Queensland University The Gumbel statistics of extreme
More informationSeismic Displacement Demands for Performance-Based Design and Rehabilitation of Structures in North America
Seismic Displacement Demands for Performance-Based Design and Rehabilitation of Structures in North America P. Daneshvar& N. Bouaanani Department of Civil, Geological and Mining Engineering École Polytechnique
More informationPeak Ground Acceleration on Bedrock and Uniform Seismic Hazard Spectra for Different Regions of Golpayegan, Iran
International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering (IJITEE) ISSN: 2278-3075, Volume-4 Issue-5, October 2014 Peak Ground Acceleration on Bedrock and Uniform Seismic Hazard Spectra
More informationSEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS
SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS Instructional Material Complementing FEMA 451, Design Examples Seismic Hazard Analysis 5a - 1 This topic addresses deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, ground
More informationAn earthquake is the result of a sudden displacement across a fault that releases stresses that have accumulated in the crust of the earth.
An earthquake is the result of a sudden displacement across a fault that releases stresses that have accumulated in the crust of the earth. Measuring an Earthquake s Size Magnitude and Moment Each can
More informationSeismic Hazard Estimate from Background Seismicity in Southern California
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 86, No. 5, pp. 1372-1381, October 1996 Seismic Hazard Estimate from Background Seismicity in Southern California by Tianqing Cao, Mark D. Petersen,
More informationEstimation of Strong Ground Motion: Aleatory Variability and Epistemic Uncertainty
Estimation of Strong Ground Motion: Aleatory Variability and Epistemic Uncertainty 5th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering 1st National Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology Bucharest,
More information(Seismological Research Letters, July/August 2005, Vol.76 (4): )
(Seismological Research Letters, July/August 2005, Vol.76 (4):466-471) Comment on How Can Seismic Hazard around the New Madrid Seismic Zone Be Similar to that in California? by Arthur Frankel Zhenming
More informationTectonic Hazard Evaluations for Korean Nuclear Sites
Tectonic Hazard Evaluations for Korean Nuclear Sites June 13-17, 2011 Jakarta, INDONESIA Hyunwoo LEE (heanu@kins.re.kr) Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety 1 2 3 4 5 Introduction Tectonic Environment of
More information"Research Note" PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS OF QUETTA PAKISTAN * A. Q. BHATTI **
IJST, Transactions of Civil Engineering, Vol. 37, No. C1, pp 157-162 Printed in The Islamic Republic of Iran, 2013 Shiraz University "Research Note" PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS OF QUETTA PAKISTAN
More informationEARTHQUAKE CLUSTERS, SMALL EARTHQUAKES
EARTHQUAKE CLUSTERS, SMALL EARTHQUAKES AND THEIR TREATMENT FOR HAZARD ESTIMATION Gary Gibson and Amy Brown RMIT University, Melbourne Seismology Research Centre, Bundoora AUTHORS Gary Gibson wrote his
More informationAn Approach for Seismic Design in Malaysia following the Principles of Eurocode 8
An Approach for Seismic Design in Malaysia following the Principles of Eurocode 8 by Dr J. W. Pappin, Ms. P. H. I. Yim and Mr. C. H. R. Koo 1. INTRODUCTION Eurocode 8 is a useful document providing systematic
More informationOPTIMIZATION OF RESPONSE SIMULATION FOR LOSS ESTIMATION USING PEER S METHODOLOGY
13 th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Vancouver, B.C., Canada August 1-6, 2004 Paper No. 1066 OPTIMIZATION OF RESPONSE SIMULATION FOR LOSS ESTIMATION USING PEER S METHODOLOGY Hesameddin ASLANI
More informationInternational Journal of Advance Engineering and Research Development. Development of Site Specific Seismic Inputs for Structures
cientific Journal of Impact Factor (JIF: 4.7 International Journal of Advance Engineering and Research Development Volume 4, Issue, December -07 e-i (O: 348-4470 p-i (P: 348-6406 Development of ite pecific
More informationUsability of the Next Generation Attenuation Equations for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Malaysia
Azlan Adnan, Patrick Liq Yee Tiong, Yue Eng Chow/ International Journal of Engineering Vol. 2 Issue 1, Jan-Feb 212, pp.639-644 Usability of the Next Generation Attenuation Equations for Seismic Hazard
More informationDepartment of Civil Engineering, Serbia
FACTA UNIVERSITATIS Series: Architecture and Civil Engineering Vol. 10, N o 2, 2012, pp. 131-154 DOI: 10.2298/FUACE1202131B TOWARDS PREPARATION OF DESIGN SPECTRA FOR SERBIAN NATIONAL ANNEX TO EUROCODE
More informationSEISMOLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR DISPLACEMENT-BASED SEISMIC DESIGN A STRUCTURAL ENGINEER S WISH LIST
SEISMOLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR DISPLACEMENT-BASED SEISMIC DESIGN A STRUCTURAL ENGINEER S WISH LIST Nigel Priestley Rose School Pavia, Italy 1. FORMULATION OF THE DIRECT DISPLACEMENT-BASED (DDBD) APPROACH
More informationThe New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model: Rethinking PSHA
Proceedings of the Tenth Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering Building an Earthquake-Resilient Pacific 6-8 November 2015, Sydney, Australia The New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model: Rethinking
More informationUncertainties in a probabilistic model for seismic hazard analysis in Japan
Uncertainties in a probabilistic model for seismic hazard analysis in Japan T. Annaka* and H. Yashiro* * Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd., Japan ** The Tokio Marine and Fire Insurance Co., Ltd.,
More informationDeterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Quetta, Pakistan
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Quetta, Pakistan M.A. Shah Micro Seismic Studies Programme, Islamabad, Pakistan Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Islamabad, Pakistan M.
More informationGROUND MOTION SUITE SELECTION FOR BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS ABSTRACT
Proceedings of the 8 th U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering April 18-22, 2006, San Francisco, California, USA Paper No. 916 GROUND MOTION SUITE SELECTION FOR BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS Sonia
More informationSEISMIC HAZARD AND SEISMIC DESIGN REQUIREMENTS FOR THE ARABIAN PENINSULA REGION
SEISMIC HAZARD AND SEISMIC DESIGN REQUIREMENTS FOR THE ARABIAN PENINSULA REGION V. Pascucci 1, M.W. Free 2 and Z.A. Lubkowski 2 1 Seismic Engineer, Arup, London W1T 4BQ, UK 2 Associate Director, Arup,
More information