APRIL Progress Report

Transcription

1 HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES BSHAP (SfP Project Number ) APRIL Progress Report Submitted to the Science for Peace and Security Programme Public Diplomacy Division NATO Progress Report prepared by: Sinan Akkar, Ankara, Turkey, NPD Branislav Glavatovic, Podgorica, Montenegro, PPD PROJECT CO-DIRECTORS: Ismail Hoxha, Tirana, Albania Vlado Kuk, Zagreb, Croatia Amer Zoranic, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Mihail Garevski, Skopje, FYR Macedonia Svetlana Kovacevic, Belgrade, Serbia

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THE PROJECT PLAN PROJECT CO-DIRECTORS BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES PROJECT STRUCTURE AND ACTIVITIES TECHNICAL PROGRESS Montenegro Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia FYR Macedonia Serbia Turkey FINANCIAL STATUS SfP NATO BUDGET TABLES SfP NATO SUMMARY BUDGET TABLE SfP NATIONAL CONTRIBUTION TABLES SfP REPORT ON CO-FUNDING EQUIPMENT INVENTORY RECORDS CRITERIA FOR SUCCESS TABLE SUMMARY REPORT

3 1. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THE PROJECT PLAN ARSO DTM Environmental Agency of The Republic of Slovenia Digital Terrain Model DEMA Danish Emergency Management Association EC GIS GPS IGEO IPR IZIIS METU MSO MSK PGA GMP PSHA European Commission Geographical Information System Global Positioning System Institute of Geosciences, Tirana, Albania Intellectual Property Right Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology at the University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius", Skopje, FYR Macedonia Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey Montenegro Seismological Observatory Scale of Seismic Intensity (Medvedev-Sponhouer-Karnik) Peak Ground Acceleration Ground Motion Prediction Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 3

4 2. PROJECT CO-DIRECTORS: Prof. Sinan Akkar, PhD in Civil Engineering, NPD Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University Ankara, Turkey Tel: sakkar@metu.edu.tr Prof. Branislav Glavatovic, PhD in Geophysics, PPD Montenegro Seismological Observatory, Podgorica Radosava Burica 2, Podgorica, Montenegro, Tel/Fax: ; Tel: seismocg@t-com.me Prof. Ismail Hoxha, PhD in Geoinformatics, Project Co-Director Institute of Geosciences Polytechnical University of Tirana Tel/Fax: i.hoxha@geo.edu.al, i_hoxha@yahoo.com Vlado Kuk, MS in Geophysics, Project Co-Director Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia Tel/Fax: kuk@rudjer.irb.hr Amer Zoranic, B.S. in Political Sciences, Project Co-Director Ministry of Civil Affairs Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Trg Bosne i Hercegovine, br. 1 Tel/Fax: ; ; zoranic@gmx.net Prof. Mihail Garevski, PhD in Civil Engineering, Project Co-Director Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology at the University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius", P.O.Box 101, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia, Tel: ; Fax: garevski@pluto.iziis.ukim.edu.mk Svetlana Kovacevic, MS in Geology, Project Co-Director Seismological Survey of Serbia, bb. Park Tashmaydan St P.O.Box 16, Belgrade, Serbia Tel : ; Fax: svetlana.kovacevic@seismo.gov.rs 4

5 3. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES During past centuries, the southern part of Europe has been devastated by a great number of large earthquakes, resulting in human victims and enormous material loss. Because of intensive building construction and increasing urban population density for the last two decades, the current consequential effects of such disastrous events would be even more drastic. It is therefore, of great importance to assess the seismic hazard properly, raise public awareness and improve disaster planning and management in the whole region. Besides exceptional willingness and cooperation of the participating countries, in developing of this Project the most important role acted Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Initiative (DPPI) of the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe. DPPI recognized possibility to, through launching of this Project, introduce necessary, basic steps towards the complex seismic risk management process in this region. DPPI organized four Project Working Group meetings (Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro and Serbia) for the purpose of elaboration, preparation of the Project Proposal Plan. The main objective of the Project is the preparation of new seismic hazard maps of the region using modern scientific methodologies that will ensure harmonization within the region as well as with the Europian standards. The fact that current seismic provisions have been updated in early 1980-is (practically in all of participating countries) underlines an evident need to upgrade these technical norms. The foreseen logical step is harmonization with EU standards (EUROCODE 8), what impose the seismic hazard harmonization as the first step towards. Another important objective of the Project is to improve scientific collaboration between the project partners. Enhancement of joint cooperation and coordination in the field of seismic hazard will provide an important step towards preparedness and prevention activities in disaster management. Through lecturing of invited experts in seismic hazard related topics introduction of the state of the art of methodology will be achieved as well as the training of young scientists. Also, the project deliverables will help achieving the deployment of new seismic instruments in the participating countries and foster real time data exchange between national seismic networks. The end users of the Project results will be governmental disaster management agencies, ministries of environment or agencies responsible for environmental protection and sustainable development in the Balkan region. The civil protection agencies as well as the insurance companies, in all of the participating countries, may benefit from this Project results using it to estimate seismic risk at certain region/location. Consequently, civil protection agencies should risk prevention, preparedness and mitigation measures. Direct users of Project results should be structural engineers, earthquake engineers, and physical planers in the whole region. 5

6 4. PROJECT STRUCTURE AND ACTIVITIES MILESTONES, DELIVERABLES AND SCHEDULE: SfP st year 2 nd year 3 rd year Milestone: Month no: Month: X-XII I-III IV-VI VII-IX X-XII I-III IV-VI VII-IX X-XII I-III IV-VI VII-IX 1. Compilation of earthquake catalogue data 1.1. Earthquake catalogue completion 1.2. Unification of magnitude scale 2. Seismic source modeling 2.1. Seismotectonical elaboration 2.2. Recurrence of earthquakes inside the identified seismic sources 2.3. Modeling of seismic sources using smoothed seismicity approach 3. Determination of GMP models 3.1. Investigation of available GMP models 3.2. Comparison of results from different GMP models 4. Seismic hazard assessment 4.1. Preparation and testing of input database 4.2. Computation of hazard probabilities 5. GIS implementation 5.1. Preparation of GIS background and thematic maps 5.2. Elaboration of hazard GIS maps 6. Equipment purchase and deployment 7. Software purchase 7.1. Accelerogram analysis software 7.2. GIS software 7.3. Alternative hazard computation software with limited license 8. Project coordination activities, issuing information and results in the Project 8.1 Web site preparation 8.2 Web maintenance, Workshops, coord. and dissemination of the results 8.3. Presentation and dissemination of the final hazard results 9. Training of young scientists Deliverable Web site of Project Depl. instruments & Completed Erthq. catalogue Determined GMP Determined alternat. source models GIS background maps Reporting Seismic hazard maps in GIS form as planned progress 1st Progress Report 2nd Progress Report 3rd Progress report 4th Progress Report 5th Progress Report Final Report 6

7 6. TECHNICAL PROGRESS A) MONTENEGRO On October 2 nd 2007, Montenegro Seismological Observatory in coordination with NATO SfP Office organized the Project Kick-off Meeting in Podgorica, Montenegro. As the leading project partner, MSO, coordinates Project activities, prepares workshop agendas, Minutes of the meetings and finalizes the Six-month reports. MSO has established dedicated Web presentation ( and permanently maintains and updates it with all project-relevant information and documents. Representatives and involved personnel of MSO actively participated to all project workshops: Ig, Skopje, Dubrovnik, Budva and Banja Luka. The major activities realized through and besides these workshops have been as follows: 1. Compilation of national earthquake catalogue (historical and instrumental records of earthquakes occurred on the territory of Montenegro and surroundings) with threshold magnitude 3.0. Later on the national catalogue has been reexamined and filled in with additional catalogue data got through collaboration with NEREIS Project. 2. Compilation of all relevant data on seismotectonics related to the Montenegro territory and surrounding area. 3. Preliminary results of seismic hazard using OHAZ software, based on MSO national catalogue, solely as the input data, presented at Skopje workshop. 4. Testing and deployment of procured instruments. Investigation of possible sites for the instruments and construction work at the chosen sites: Broad band seismometers, sensor type KS2000M, Geotech Instruments: One of the broad band instruments is placed on the newly (April, 2009) constructed station Dracevica, municipality of Bar. All land property right, as well as the station electricity and communication issues were resolved prior to the instrument deployment. Another broad band seismometer is placed in previously existing station Bratogost. The third broad band instrument is to be placed in Cevo station by midst of June Strong motion recorders, sensor type SMART-24A: The strong motion sensors (3 peaces) were placed on existing weak-motion stations Niksic and Herceg Novi while the third one is equipping the Dracevica station. Digitizers model SMART-24D: The purchazed digitizers (two peaces) are equipping existing stations of Bratogost and Plav, Micro wave wireless links are placed on Dracevica station and repeater Sjenica. For the purpose of observation and measuring of earth crust deformations two permanent GPS station were placed (one financed as national contribution and other one as the donation of DEMA): Martinicko Gostilje, municipality of Danilovgrad and Dracevica, municipality of Bar (national contribution) are operating, now. All of deployed instruments become operable starting from June / July, Wishing to establish cooperative mutual relations between NATO SfP Project No partner institutions MSO contributed to: The Protocol on Multilateral cooperation in seismic Data Exchange. According to suggestions and agreements made on Dubrovnik WS, The Protocol document was prepared by MSO. For the purpose of protocol realization the IT capacities 7

8 of the MSO has been broadened so to make possible real-time seismic data exchange. The Protocol on multilateral cooperation in further developing the OHAZ software signed among MSO (on behalf of the BSHAP Project) and Institute of Geosciences of Polytechnic University of Tirana, Albania and Environmental Agency of Republic of Slovenia, Ministry for Environment and Spatial Planning, Slovenia (as the owners of source code of OHAZ software). The cooperation in implementation of new PGM formula between ARSO, IGEO and MSO is intensive. 6. According to gained experience and agreement with other partner institutions the GIS software MapInfo Professional 9.5 has been purchased along with supplementary software Vertical Mapper. Four trainees attended the GIS training arranged for the Project participants by Seismological Survey of Serbia (Divcibare, April 2009). In the previous six month a number of thematic GIS layers were created: geological map, BSHAP catalogue (D version) and related layers of iso-values of Mmax, activity rates, b-value of Gutenberg - Richter form, map of active faults for Montenegro ( Fig. 1) seismic source zones for Montenegro. ( Fig. 1) Map of active faults for Montenegro A.2 Actions to insure the implementation of results Within the previous period, the cooperation with The Real Estate Agency of Montenegro is established through the Agreement on Permanent GPS Observation Data Exchange. The outcome of agreement is availability of additional eight permanent GPS stations (operated by this Agency) measurements data. The major objectives of The NATO SfP and its importance for the tailoring of EUROCODE 8 are nowadays well recognized in community. Since the Montenegro is striving towards European and NATO integrations - on the national level there is an intensive ongoing mission on compliance with EU legislations. In domain of construction provisions the introduction of EURO CODES is of primary importance and several national projects are in preparation. Through the conclusion of Meeting Euro codes in Montenegrin Legislation, organized by Engineering Chamber (Podgorica, October 2, 2009), significance of NATO SfP is emphasized as well as expected implementation of its results in preparation of Euro code 8 Annexes: Nationally Determined Parameters for the Montenegro. 8

9 The implementation of Project results is expected within the IPA Twinning project proposed in cooperation of Ministry of Spatial Planning and Environment of Montenegro and Technical Assistance Exchange Instrument. Preliminary results of analysis of Earth crust kinematics monitoring data obtained by permanent GPS stations Martinicko Gostilje and Dracevica had been presented at the Earthquake Engineering conference organized on the occasion of 40 th anniversary of devastating 1969Banja Luka earthquake. A.3 Milestones for the next six months During the final stage of project realization deployment of last single purchased instrument should be realized the Cevo station should become operable by midst of June, The compiled joint seismotectonical model for the BSHAP region should be adopted (Montenegrin seismotectonical file is already prepared) as well as harmonized seismic source zone delineation. According to conclusions of co-directors meeting held in Sarajevo (April 9 th, 2010.) the MSO member of Working group that will finalize the unified seismotectonic file and input for OHAZ software is Ms. Jadranka Mihaljevic (term - May 2010). Final decision on predictive ground motion model to be used had to be adopted, in accordance to discussion of Banja Luka Workshop. For adopted zones and PGM relations, the OHAZ software will be used for hazard calculation of the entire region. The output hazard computation data should be presented as the final GIS map layer. A.4 Involvement of young scientists In the time period from the beginning of the project three young scientists were involved in the realization of the project activities. Ms. Ljiljana Vucic, Mathematician assistant researcher, has prepared the Web presentation for the Project, and maintains it as the permanent task. With respect to the Protocol on Multilateral cooperation in seismic Data Exchange Ms Vucic is the nominated MSO liaison officers in charge of coordinating the activities listed in the areas of cooperation. Nowadays, real-time data exchange is established with: MEDNET, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria and Greece. Ms. Jadranka Mihaljevic, civil eng. presented the first results of OHAZ software in seismic hazard assessment for the territory of Montenegro (Skopje Workshop). On behalf of the Montenegro as the Project leading country, Ms. Mihaljevic presented the current state of the Project realization on XV DPPI SEE Regional Meeting in Zagreb, Also, in the role of the invited key-speaker she participated on Seminar for Experts and Senior Managers on NATO Standards and Project Evaluation Procedures, focusing on Hydro-Meteorological aspects that was organized by DPPI. Ms. Mihaljevic is the person in charged for the coordination and preparation of Six month reports. On the invitation of Prof Akkar, she attended ADEA - The 2 nd Euro Mediteranean Meeting on Acclerometric Data Exchange and Archiving, held in Ankara, November 10-12, and presented the current results of BSHAP Project in the Poster session. The Report on the Conference is posted at the BSHAP Project Web. Six day training of young scientists Ljiljana Vucic and Natasa Kaludjerovic of the introductory course into Bernese GPS Software, including lectures on Global Navigation Satellite Systems, was realized in Bern, Switzerland in January The training was realized for the purpose of putting into practice permanent GPS data observations, analysis of obtained kinematical parameters and consequently, determination of geodynamic model of the region. 9

10 Additionally all nominated MSO young scientists involved in Project activities attended the GIS MapInfo Professional 9.5 &Vertical Mapper training arranged by Seismological Survey (Divcibare, April 2009). A.5 Major travel Major travels were related to participation to Project related workshops: Ig, Slovenia (7-9 November 2007) and Skopje, Macedonia (17-18 December 2007), Dubrovnik (26-27 March 2008) and Banja Luka (26-27 October, 2009.) In the role of project leading country, MSO representatives traveled to Zagreb, Croatia (20-22 February) ( Seminar for Experts and Senior Managers on NATO Standards and Project Evaluation Procedures, focusing on Hydro- Meteorological aspects ) as well as to Brussels to NATO Forum on Environmental Security. In April 2009, the four trainees went to Divcibare, Serbia for GIS training workshop. PPD Prof Branislav Glavatovic and Ms. Vucic use Project funds to participate on International Workshop on Real Time Seismology held in Italy, Erice (May, 2009). By the beginning of September engineer Marin Cavelis went to study stay in Geotech Dallas TX. The purpose of the stay was to familiarize with the equipment maintenance as well as to clear up the evidences of malfunction of purchased instrument. Travel costs for Ms. Mihaljevic to ADEA Meeting, Ankara, Turkey are covered by project budget, while the accommodation costs were covered by host METU (Fig. 2) Fig.2: ADEA Poster session BSHAP presentation A number of domestic travels were realized for the purpose of site investigation for the placement of new seismic stations, as well as the workshop organized in Budva. A.6 Visit by experts/advisors and NATO consultant As the guest expert from Slovenia, Agency for Environment, Mr. Mladen Zivcic has been invited to Podgorica for the occasion of Official Launching of the Project. A.7 Visibility of SfP project For the purpose of visibility of the Project, the Web site: was dedicated to the Project following the NATO SfP existing recommendations. Besides ongoing and planned activities related to the Project, important document on outcomes, all necessary links to participating institutions, as well as to NATO SfP Programme are available. Web presentation is developed and hosted by Montenegro Seismological Observatory. 10

11 The event of Official Launching of The Project was held in Podgorica on October 2nd 2007, ( with the participation of distinguished guests from NATO SfP Programme, DPPI, diplomatic chore, as well as Montenegro Government representatives and ministries. The event itself was preceded by reports of all major national media: newspapers and TV. A special March addition Security, financed by the British Council, of daily news Vijesti was dedicated to the objectives and significance of the Project. The importance of collaboration within the NATO SfP Project No is emphasized on several occasions as the good example of streaming of Montenegro towards Euro-Atlantic integrations. The main features of NATO Science for Peace Programme as well as the Project progress were presented on Workshop (Ulcinj, May 29,2009), organized for the NGO ecology sector by Alfa mreza, aimed to public debate European integration process and its influence to issues of ecology and environment issues. As the invited speaker to national Panel Disscussion on the subject NATO and Emergency Management (held in Budva, December 15 th, 2009) Prof Glavatovic presented the project objectives and it s implications to EM service in Montenegro. In April 2009, on occasion of 30 th anniversary of destructive 1979 Montenegro earthquake, Ministry for spatial planning and environment organized the Conference to raise public awareness to the issues of seismic risk. The significance of the NATO SfP BSHAP Project, its objectives and progress were presented. The current project results were presented at the Ankara ADEA Meeting, as well as on the Regional Meeting for the Balkans and Eastern Europe (FP7 Project SHARE) that took place in Podgorica during 9-10 March, A.8 Technical and administrative difficulties All technical and administrative difficulties related to establishing of dedicated banking account and tax-free exoneration was successfully resolved. Technical problems with purchased equipement were experienced. The long-period noice was evidented during the testing of instruments. All of three BB seismometers were sent to manufacturer for the calibration and repairements. Finaly, all af the instruments were received back in December A.9 Changies in personel Ms Natasa Kaludjerovic, BS of Physics, employee of MSO, has been involved as the Project participant since midst of A.10 Changes in project plan A special attention was paid to procurement and selection of necessary seismic equipment. Having in mind the significant improvements of acquisition system that MSO undertook during the summer of 2007 and at the beginning of the current year, specific needs to improve capacity and performance of mso seismic network were more precisely defined. In that sense, the final decision regarding the purchase of seismic instruments was, as it has been stated in the justification of procurement. 11

12 B) ALBANIA B.1 Major Accomplishments B.1.1. Instrument deployment. The strong motion instruments are delivered by Guralp Systems Ltd., consisting of 8 CMG-5T strong motion sensors and 10 CMG- 5TD Strong Motion Sensor Systems comprising CMG-5 accelerometers and CMG- DM24 modules, at the total cost of $ 64, So, IGEO successfully finished the process of equipment purchase. But, for more than one year we experienced administrative difficulties related to the tax-free exoneration. Recently this problem is resolved, and IGEO will pay the relevant taxes as local cost. Very soon we will start the instrument deployment. B.1.2. Seismic Data Exchange. In the framework of NATO SfP Project (BSHAP), and taking into account the mutual interest for seismic data exchange between partners (improvement of epicenter determination in the border regions), IGEO has signed The Protocol on Multilateral cooperation in seismic Data Exchange. In order to fulfill its obligations undertaken in the context of this protocol, in the period November 2009 December 2009, IGEO capacities have been broadened so to make possible real-time seismic data exchange. The new monitoring center in the central building of the Institute has been equipped with a number of PC and servers, all dedicated to the acquisition and processing of seismic data. IGEO has established the real-time seismic data exchange with INGV (Rome) and Thessaloniki University, which run the same data acquisition system (Nanometrics). IGEO has contacted the GEOFON team in order to install the SeisComP software also. A contract between us was undersigned, and GEOFON provided the SeisComP 3.0 software. We are working now with the Montenegrin colleagues to implement the real time data exchange with them. The main problem now remains increasing of our Internet link capacity. A particular contribution to the data exchange between neighboring countries resulted also from the EU project (CoSEESNet, A Collaborative South East Europe Seismic Network: Towards Early Earning System and Real Time Seismic Monitoring in South East Europe ). B.1.3. The catalogues of Albanian earthquakes. 1. Catalogue of Albanian earthquakes with Ms 4.5, for the time period 58BC- 2006, sent on November 28, This catalogue includes earthquakes occurred within the area with geographical coordinates N and E. Part of this catalogue, covering the period 58BC-1964, includes earthquakes occurred within the area with coordinates N; E. The catalogue includes in total 667 earthquakes, from which 450 are main shocks assigned the code 1, and 117 earthquakes are for/aftershocks assigned the code 0. The catalogue sources, reported magnitudes and its completeness are given too. 2. Catalogue of the Albanian earthquakes with M L 3.0, for the time period , sent on December 10, The catalogue contains events; from which events has computed magnitudes based on Albanian Seismological Network (ASN) data. Events occurred within the area with geographical coordinates [ N; E]. Reported magnitudes and references are given for this earthquake catalogue. A new catalogue of the Albanian earthquakes for the period January 2000 December 2008 was prepared also in terms of M L 3.0. This catalogue comprises events occurred within the area with geographic coordinates N; E. B.1.4. The unified earthquake catalog in terms of moment magnitude, M W. It is evident, that compilation of a homogeneous earthquake catalog, by expressing the 12

13 size of the earthquakes in a unified magnitude scale is the first step in the PSHA. Because most of PGM models proposed recently (Akkar & Bommer 2007,2010, NGA models 2008, etc.) use the moment magnitude, M W, it is indispensable to have a unified catalogue in terms of M W. That is why regression analysis is carried out to estimate the correlation between moment magnitude M W, and M L magnitudes reported by the seismological agencies of the region (Tirana, Podgorica, Zagreb, Belgrade, Skopje and Thessaloniki). The values of M W corresponding to the events used in the relevant datasets are taken from Harvard CMT catalog and RCMT catalogs compiled by INGV (Rome) and ETHZ (Zurich). The derived relations can be used to convert the local magnitudes M L reported by seismological networks in the region, to the moment magnitude, M W. Because, some new updated PGM models proposed the last years for the European region use surface wave magnitude, MS (Berge-Thierry et al, 2003: Journal of Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2003, pp ), or the magnitude MSP defined by Sabetta-Pugliese (Bindi et al., 2009, Bull. Earthquake Eng: Towards a new reference ground motion prediction equation for Italy - update of the Sabetta- Pugliese (1996), published online March 2009), it would be very useful that the homogenous catalogue compiled for Western Balkan to be also in terms of Ms and M SP, aside from M L and M W. For the earthquakes occurred within Albanian territory we have compiled the unified catalog in terms of M W, M S and M SP for events with M W 3.5. This unified catalog is used in further analysis and in our preliminary hazard calculations. B.1.5. Seismotectonic data for Albanian territory. A digital map with the main active faults on the territory of Albania has been compiled. The relevant database, with the required fault parameters, as decided to be used for the BSHAP project, is now completed. Actually, the seismotectonic data for the Albanian territory, according to the seismotectonic model used in OHAZ software are prepared (delineation and characterization of the seismotectonic zones with homogenous seismotectonic characteristics, determination of predominant tectonic structures (fault types), their orientation and corresponding weights for every zone, as well as the expected maximum magnitude for every seismotectonic zone). B.1.6. Preparation of GIS background maps. During the last year, training of a young scientist (Dr. Enkela Begu) for the common GIS software selected for the BSHAP project needs (MapInfo Professional 9.5 and MapInfo Vertical Mapper) was completed in Divcibare (Belgrade). The software is delivered and installed. Dr. E. Begu, in concert with another young GIS specialist (Mrs. Irena Ymeti) involved in the project, were engaged and almost have completed the background GIS layers (topography, hydrography, settlements, transport infrastructure, etc.) for the seismic hazard maps, based on the existing topographic database in the scale 1: B.1.7. Development and improving of OHAZ software. Further development and improving of OHAZ software, accordingly to the project needs, has been also an important issue for us. As it is already known, IGEO (Albania) and ARSO (Environmental Agency of Republic of Slovenia, Slovenia), as co-owners of the source code of OHAZ software, agreed to make it available for the other partners of the BSHAP project, and signed the Protocol on multilateral cooperation in further developing the OHAZ software with MSO on behalf of the BSHAP Project. Besides, during this period Prof. Neki Kuka in close collaboration with Dr. Barbara Sket Motnikar (ARSO, Slovenia), attained some important improvements in OHAZ: 1) It was implemented a maximum-likelihood procedure to account for unequal observational time periods (completeness periods of the earthquake catalogs). 2) An improved procedure to estimate the reccurrence relationships (incremental and 13

14 cumulative), including estimation of related uncertainties, is also integrated in OHAZ. 3) The approximate function that calculates the distance site-source, is replaced with a more accurate geodetic procedure. 4) The database of Predictive Ground-Motion Models (PGMM) is extended with the following models, which in our opinion are very appropriate for PSHA in our region: a) Berge-Thierry et al. (2003). It seems, this model fully replace the Ambraseys et al It is based on the updated European strong motion database, and use also MS magnitude scale. The only change from the model of Ambraseys et al. 1996, is that the Berge-Thierry et al. model use hypocentral distance instead of the fault distance. b) Bindi et al. Is based on a revised Italian strong motion records, and is an update of the Sabetta-Pugliese 1996 PGM model. c) Akkar & Bommer 2007, This could be used instead of Ambraseys et al. 2005, which it seems to be not appropriate for PSHA (Muson 2009). d) Boore & Atkinson This model is derived in the framework of NGA project in USA (EERI, 2008), and it is based in a very large strong motion database. It is considered very appropriate to be used in the European region (Bommer et al., 2007). B.1.8. Seismicity modeling. Statistical analysis of the earthquake catalog, such as investigation of data completeness with time, declustering the earthquake catalog, estimation of recurrence parameters as well as the maximum expected magnitude for every seismotectonic zone and for entire Albanian territory, are already accomplished. However, a further refinement is necessary, and will be carried out before hazard calculation, using the BSHAP unified earthquake catalog. B.1.9. Preliminary seismic hazard assessment for Albanian territory. Based on the above-mentioned results, a preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Albanian territory is accomplished, using as input the earthquake and seismotectonic data compiled. Methodology used is gridded seismicity (Frankel 1995, Lapajne et al. 2003, Petersen et al (Open-File Report Documentation for the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps )). PSHA analysis is conducted using the OHAZ software. Four PGME are used (Berge- Thierry et al. 2003, Bindi et al. (2009), Akkar & Bommer 2007, Boore & Atkinson 2008). Preliminary seismic hazard maps for PGA, SA 0.2s and SA 1s, corresponding to 10% PE in 50 years (475-years return period) are prepared using GMT software. B.2 Actions to insure the implementation of results The probabilistic seismic hazard map, that is the major objective of the project, shall be adopted by the Albanian authorities as National Annex for the new design standard conform Eurocode 8. IGEO staff is working with the relevant Directorate in the Ministry of Construction for the formulation of the necessary actions that will comprise the relevant Albanian Institutions for the EC8 implementation in our country. B.3 Milestones for the next six months Instrument deployments. Within the next months the deployments of the strong motion instruments should be performed. Some actions related to the land property rights, measurements and selection of sites and houses (structures), as well as the Internet link with the remote stations, shall be concluded. 14

15 As discussed in the meeting of BSHAP Co-Directors, held in Sarajevo on 9 April 2010, we need eight additional digitizers in order to install and operate eight CMG-5T strong motion sensors bought in the framework of BSHAP project, in our existing seismic stations, which use the real-time satellite communications (VSAT). The entire necessary infrastructure (basements, power supply, satellite transceivers and antennas, communication link, etc.), except the digitizers, is ready. We need, as soon as possible, the approval of our revised budget table from the NATO SPP authorities, in order to increase our instrumentation capabilities. Seismic Data Exchange. Extending of seismic data exchange using Seedlink format, with the other partners in BSHAP project (Macedonia, Kosovo, Serbia, Bosnia- Herzegovina and Croatia), will be also our priority for the next six months. Seismic Hazard Assessment. Some refinements of the catalog maybe will be necessary after delivery of the harmonized catalog for the BSHAP project, which is compiled by the Croatian colleagues (M. Herak). We will provide the empirical scaling relationships for magnitude unification in the harmonized BSHAP catalog to the project co-directors, which will provide their comments and approve these empirical relationships for using in PSHA calculations. Our colleagues LL. Duni and R. Koçi will participate and give their contribution in the common BSHAP group, established for identifying and characterizing the seismic sources for the project as a hole. As decided in the Sarajevo BSHAP meeting, PSHA analysis will be conducted using OHAZ and another benchmark software (CRISIS or EZ-FRISK). N. Kuka will coordinate the relevant group. Some other important features in OHAZ, such as combining of hazard curves in the framework of a logic-tree approach, dynamic memory allocation to increase the sizes of certain arrays in order to use OHAZ for large areas, etc., are planned to be finished within the June Statistical data analysis of the harmonized and unified earthquake catalog, and preparing the seismotectonic data file accordingly to the OHAZ specifications, have to be accomplished. It is indispensable to begin with hazard calculation, at latest the beginning of July Also, it is necessary to complete the relevant Digital Terrain Model (DTM) for Albania, which will be used as reference for the seismic hazard maps, together with the background GIS layers. Dr. E. Begu and MSc I. Ymeti are in charge for this component of the project. B.4. Involvement of young scientists Two young researchers, Dr. Enkela Begu - GIS specialist, and Msc. Irena Ymeti - Remote Sensing specialist, are involved in the project. Dr. E. Begu followed the GIS training course (MapInfo) in Serbia, and later was involved in the activities for project results visualization, together with Msc. I. Ymeti. Furthermore, Dr. Begu was involved in the preparation of the presentation in the framework of the Week of technological, scientific and Universitary cooperation Italy-Albania entitled Monitoring infrastructure of the Institute of Geosciences (Tirana, November, 2008). A new young IT specialist, Rrezart Bozo, was also involved in the project activities, giving his support for many IT related problems (data exchange, data processing, etc). B.5 Major travels Major travels were related to participation to the Project related workshops: Ig, Slovenia (7-9 November 2007), Skopje, Macedonia (17-18 December 2007), Dubrovnik, Croatia (26-27 March 2008), Budva, Montenegro (16-17 December 2008), Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina (26 27 October 2009), Sarajevo (9 April 2010). 15

16 B.7 Visibility of SfP project A paper dedicated to the NATO Science for Peace and Security Project No Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries, and entitled The NATO and Albanian Seismology was published by Prof. Shyqyri Aliaj in Albanian Newspaper Albania, February 27, 2008 (in Albanian). B.8 Technical and administrative difficulties Administrative difficulties have been encountered regarding to the tax-free exoneration of the seismological equipments delivered by the NATO SfP project. The administration of IGEO is making intensive efforts to resolve the question. The other technical and administrative difficulties, related to the bank account transfer from the former Co-Director Prof. Aliaj to the new Co-Director, were successfully resolved. B.9. Changes in personnel On 1/01/2008, a new research institute Institute of Geosciences (IGEO), started its activity based on a decision of the Albanian Government (VKM No. 561, date 22/08/2007). IGEO includes the former Institute of Seismology of the Albanian Academy of Sciences and some research units of Albanian Geological Survey (geology, geophysics, geoinformation technologies). The Institute of Geosciences is a national research unit that operates under the umbrella of the Polytechnic University of Tirana. According to the above mentioned decision, all the assets and activities of the former Institute of Seismology, including projects and bilateral contractual agreements, are now transferred to the new Institute of Geosciences. After retirement of the former Albanian Co-director, Prof. Shyqyri Aliaj, and his resign from the Co-Director function for the Albanian partner, Prof. Ismail Hoxha, expressed his interest to take over the Co-Director function for the Albanian partner into the NATO SfP project, and also his engagement to fulfill all the agreements that comply the project objectives. The necessary documents were sent to the NATO SfP project authorities, and we received their official approval. The Albanian Project team was reorganized, in order to fulfill the related BSHAP project activities. Prof. Neki Kuka, Head of Department of Geoinformation Technologies in IGEO, was involved in the BSHAP project. C) BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA C.1 Major Accomplishments In the past two six months period (October 2009 to March 2010), Seismological Survey of Bosnia and Herzegovina conducted tasks consistent to the methodology, project structure and activities of the approved Project Plan. Our planed tasks and activities were significantly obstructed by the long delay in seismic equipment delivery, provided from Geotech, and with the fact that part of equipment was delivered with manufactory mistake (long period noise). Therefore - resolving this issues become main priority to Seismological Survey of Bosnia and Herzegovina and precondition for successful networking. All works on deployment of equipment are already done successfully, but functional connection seismic stations with seismic centers and other partners in Project is 16

17 tightly connected with our efforts to resolve problems with equipment, delivered with manufactory mistake (long period noise). In this period we provide 2 software licenses of MapInfo Professional GIS software and as a part of additional negotiations of Project co-director Mr. Amer Zoranic with Geotech, we provide additional 2 software licenses (for data processing and analysis, worth $6,000 FREE of CHARGE), for successful resolve of long period noise problem. In this period (October 2009-th) we organized workshop in Banja Luka. Most of participants of this workshop took a part in International conference on earthquake engineering that was held at the same time in Banja Luka and Mr. Sinan Akkar NPD. presented Project to this audience. On the end of this period (April 9-th) we organized meeting of all national co-directors and NPD Mr. Sinan Akkar NPD and Mr. Walter Kaffenberger from NATO SfP aiming to discus current issues and better co-ordinate further activities in resolving it. Activities on this will be conducted together with Seismological Survey of Montenegro, as our partner in Project and as Seismological Survey which also choose Geotech, as a vendor. Most of activities, realized within last six months, were financed by Ministry of Civil Affairs of B&H - not using budget of the Project. The main objectives of the Project for this past two years period were as follows: o o o o o Equipment deployment. Further work on unique earthquake catalogue and training of scientists to use sophisticate software for this purpose. Strengthening of co-ordination and work on Project of two seismic institutions Creating pre-conditions for unique seismic network (with two centers) Strengthening of professional capacities of (two) seismic institutions in B&H To fulfill this goal we organized several meetings among representatives of both seismic institutions, and joint our efforts on developing a future unique seismic network with two (main) centers, as described in Project DETERMINE, to be implemented until the end of 2010-th. Improvement of an existing seismic station network in the region and real time data exchange is another important objective of the Project. One of the (major) achievements in a first six months was a meeting with donators (to be) from the Slovak Republic. Meeting was organized in Banja Luka on the end of 2009-th in order to provide donation of Slovak Aid for both participating seismological institutions from Bosnia and Herzegovina. On that meeting is defined time-frame for main goals of the Project, like development of infrastructure for rapid earthquake data collection and exchange in the Bosnia and Herzegovina composed of the six new seismic stations network, education of the young experts. The Project with Slovak Aid plan will be complementary to the activities of the NATO Project SfP C.2 Actions to insure the implementation of results Providing a consistent background is one of the main objectives of the Project. For that purpose we undertake activities on involving Federal Geological Institute - Sarajevo in Project. This institution developed most recent and most updated Map of Hazard, based on (it s own) Geological survey and catalogue of earthquake of seismic institution of Federation of B&H. 17

18 Mr. Hazim Horvatovic, Head of Federal Geological Institute Sarajevo expressed a wish to his institution participate in the Project. We also, provide all necessary back up, from Ministry of Civil Affairs and Council of Ministers of B&H, aiming to fulfill all obligations of Bosnia and Herzegovina, regarding administrational, finance and other kinds of support to the this Project. C.3 Milestones for the next six months According to the Project Plan, in the next six months period, following tasks should be achieved: testing and deployment of the REPAIRED equipment networking; (among institutions and other partners in Project) further activity in additional founding and institutional contribution to the Project. investigation of the existing geological, neo tectonic, remote sensing and other relevant data in the Bosnia and Herzegovina and surrounding regions for the purpose of seismic source determination (in co-operation with Federal Geological Institute Sarajevo) education and training of the young experts C.5 Major travel Mr. Amer Zoranic traveled in Banja Luka (26-28 October) on workshop. All other travels are covered by Ministry of Civil Affairs of B&H. C.8 Technical and administrative difficulties During this two and half year period of time many of technical and administrative difficulties occurred, mostly because of different administrative and financial procedures between NATO and Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, most of (if not ALL) this administrative and financial difficulties were successfully resolved and created conditions for a further successful work on Project of all participants. C.9 Changes in personnel Mrs Snezana Cvijic, young expert, will be absent from the Project due to her pregnancy until the end of the Project. Her work in seismic institution from Banja Luka, will be done by Mr. Sveto Vrhovac, Mrs. Vesna Sipka, and one newly employed young expert. Also, we are creating additional possibilities for involvement of new personnel and young researchers in the Project. C.10 Changes in Project plan No significant changes in the Project plan were undertaken. Our intention to use all available money (for this purpose) in order to provide as much as possible of seismic equipment is in accordance with Project plan. Some changes might be done in that direction, in the future, in order to improve functionality of provided seismic stations. 18

19 D) CROATIA D.1 Major Accomplishments During the last period of the project the main activities were oriented towards completing of Croatian earthquake catalogue. The site preparations and installation of new seismological stations were also performed. Regarding to the seismic map, neotectonic as well as seismotectonic investigations were accomplished. The source modeling was also continued. D.1.1 Completing of Croatian & BSHAP earthquake catalogue Process of verification and completing of Croatian earthquake catalogue has been finished. Completing as well as digitalization of the macroseismic catalogue was also continued. During the Banja Luka Meeting the final version of BSAP catalogue has been adopted (Fig. 1). The additional catalogue analyses (as presented in previous reports) on completeness of magnitude classe, Maximal Magnitudes, isovalues of b- values of G-R relation etc. were presented for this version of catalogue. Fig 1. BSAP main catalogue- version C 19

20 D.1.2 Site preparations and installation of new seismological stations One of five new Guralph seismographs that were purchased within the Project was installed on Brijuni island. The data transmission from that station to the central observatory in Zagreb is realized using satellite equipment that was bought in Germany. The next two stations will be installed on Dugi otok island and Žirje island in few months. All administrative issues concerning different licenses and permissions from relevant national authorities were obtained. Two remaining stations will be installed on Lastovo and Palagruza islands before the end of the project. D.1.3 Seismic source modeling The investigations regarding the source modeling have been also continued as well as collecting and analyzing existing seismotectonical data. The seismotectonical map will be finished in few months. D.2 Actions to insure the implementation of results Croatian team representatives in Croatian Technical Committee for Euro code 8 continued their activities in the harmonization with EU standards. Regarding the collaboration between project members, Croatia will continue with the exchanging real time data with neighboring and other close countries. D.3 Milestones for the next six months In the next six months of project realization, the final seismic map will be finished. Croatia will also install remaining four seismological stations and put them into the national network. D.4 Involvement of young scientist Four young scientists (Krešimir Kuk, Josip Stipčević, T. Fiket and S. Prevolnik) continued their activities participating in the all tasks of the project. K. Kuk participated in Second Euro-Mediterranean meeting on accelerometric data exchange an archiving held in Ankara (November 2009). D.5 Major travel Travels were related to the project meeting held in Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina in October D.7 Visibility of SfP project All international activities of Croatian team, as well as presentations, are permanently being updated on the official web site of the University of Zagreb. The project and ongoing activities were also several times mentioned in national news and television by members of the Croatian project team. D.8 Technical and administrative difficulties There were many financial difficulties regarding the project realization due to the significant reduction of the state budget. D.9 Changes in personnel Mr. Vladimir David changed his profession and is not involved in project any more. 20

21 E) MACEDONIA Period October 2009 March 2010 In the period March - October 2009, the Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (UKIM-IZIIS, Skopje) in cooperation with Seismological Observatory, Faculty of Natural Sciences (SO/PMF) conducted tasks compliant to methodology, project structure and activities of the adopted Project Plan, i.e., along activities to fulfill Milestone requirements as declared in previous four six month reports. E.1Major Accomplishments E.1.1 WP 1: Preparation and compilation of earthquake catalogue All activities related to re-compilation of Macedonian earthquake catalogue (survey of available catalogues; re-assessment of certain historic earthquakes and filling identified gaps) have been completed. According to the adopted Project policy, the catalogue has been delivered to Prof. Herak who integrated national catalogues provided by all BISHAP partners into BISHAP Earthquake Catalogue, checked it for overlapping and completeness, performed declustering and unified magnitudes. The final BISHAP Earthquake Catalogue is adopted at 5th SfP Workshop, organised in conjuction with International conference Banja Luka Earthquake 40 Years of Engineering Experience, October, 2009, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, some new updated PGM models proposed the last years for the European region use surface wave magnitude, MS (Berge-Thierry et al, 2003: Journal of Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2003, pp ), or the magnitude MSP defined by Sabetta-Pugliese (Bindi et al., 2009, Bull. Earthquake Eng: Towards a new reference ground motion prediction equation for Italy - update of the Sabetta-Pugliese (1996), published online 10 March 2009), it would be very useful that the homogenous catalogue compiled for Western Balkan to be also in terms of Ms and MSP, aside from ML and MW. E.1.2 WP 2: Seismic source investigation and determination Determination of seismic sources for the territory of Macedonia and surroundings is almost completed. Preliminary delineation of source zones is made and recurrences of earthquakes inside the identified seismic source zones have been defined. Fault structures relevant for territory of Macedonia have been recompiled. The results will soon be published (Shalic, R. and Z. Milutinovic, Compilation and Synthesis of Faults in the Republic of Macedonia, Report IZIIS /under preparation/). E.1.3 WP 3: Determination of ground motion prediction model Testing of selected SMA models against parameters of regional SM data has been completed. As acceptable attenuation relation for implementation proposed is: Akkar & Bommer (2007) ground motion attenuation (GMA) models that, based on 532 accelerograms from the strong-motion databank from Europe and the Middle East, in consistent way provide attenuation models for PGA and Spectral displacements. In addition, the proposed models are later enhanced by (Akkar & Bommer /2007/) by PGV model derived from the same data set. Irrespectively of the proposal, IZIIS study does not limit application of any other GMA model if consensuses by all participants. 21

22 E.1.4 WP 4: Seismic hazard assessment Seismic hazard, based on classic PSHA has been performed for several characteristic locations in Macedonia. Data for smoothed PSHA are under preparation. OHAZ 6.0 has been studied. Preliminary runs have been performed and results compared with results obtained from classic PSHA analyses. Some discrepancies have been identified. The study for clarifying these discrepancies is underway. E.1.5 WP 5: Preparation of GIS background and thematic maps Characteristic topologic GIS layers (boundaries, chain of human settlements, and topography in equidistance of 100 m) are prepared. Fault map is prepared also. All layers are in geographic coordinate system (φ,λ). Data base of Macedonian faults is almost completed. With completion of Earthquake catalogue and fault map, the base for generating the seismotectonic map of Macedonia is established. E.1.6 WP 6: Equipment purchase and deployment Procurement of SM instruments (12) is completed. Thanks to the courtesy of Guralp LTD, instead 12, received are 13 last generation TD5 accelerograph units together with generous offer that Guralp engineers assist in installation. Procured instruments have been checked in the Institute and no flaws were recorded. However, the selection of station sites, although almost completed, has been brought to the beginning. The initial plan considered installation of accelerographs in facilities used by local governments, however, the Internet availability and securing of instruments issues compromised this idea. The new partner was found in the Ministry of education. While they offered their facilities for installation, Internet accessibility also, they could not provide guarantees that the instruments will 100% be secured against children curiosity and access. Recent negotiations with Crisis Management Center (CMC) of Macedonia have successfully been completed. CMC offers their facilities, free and unlimited power and Internet access as well as undertook all responsibilities for securing all instruments from unauthorized access. During the negotiation proces, common interests between UKIM-IZIIS and CRC have been identified and joint Working Group has been established. The WG is tasked to explore potential of both institutions for IT linkage, as well as based on installed accelerograph network, to establish principles for early earthquake disaster warning system, assure procedures and protocols that instrumental data are translated in decision making and action oriented parameters for effective post-earthquake reaction of the CM System of Macedonia. In a short term, the WG shall inspect CMC facilities, and decide which are convenient and in conformity with COSMOS1 criteria to host such accelerograph installations. E.1.7 WP 7: Software purchase MapInfo +Vertical Mapper GIS software has been acquired and is already in use. Software for analysis of strong motion data has been downloaded form manifacturer web site, and preliminary testing of artificially produced noise has been performed. OHAZ 6.0 software is already used for training and some assessments. It was decided that, due to annual license cost of EZ-FRISK software (~2,000 USD) it is not rational to rational to procure it, since at no cost SEISRISK III or Crisis can be used as reference software packages for verifying OHAZ results. 1 Consortium of Organizations for Strong-Motion Observation Systems ( 22

23 E.1.8 WP 8: Project coordination activities There is regular communication among all participants for resolving all ongoing issues. E.1.9 WP 9: Training of young scientists Ms. Radmila Shalic completed her 3 month study training at GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam under the advisory of Prof. Dr. J. Zschau, her PhD. thesis co-advising professor and Director of GFZ. E.2 Actions to insure the implementation of results The main objective of the project is producing the harmonized Seismic Hazard Map as National Annex that conforms to EU standards (i.e. Euro code 8) that shall be adopted by Macedonian structural design and construction legislation. Along this line, IZIIS continuously cooperate with Macedonian Institute for Standardization (ISRM; established in 2007, in particular within the Working Group 8 (TC/WG8): Design of Structures for Earthquake Resistance. All the relevant results derived from the Project activities are implemented in regular activities of the UKIM-IZIIS Institute, seismic hazard assessments for the regional spatial plans and for definition of regional and local sismic design parameters for earthquake resistant design of structures in acedonia. To assure implementation of the project achievements, in particular of the equipment procured (13 sofisticated Guralp 5TD accelerographa), in operative management of earthquake related crises, contacts are established with the Crisis Management Center (CMC) of Macedonia. The CMC had shown a strong interest in obtaining realtime information, processed in decisions, for managing post-earthquake effects (physical and/or psychological) occuring within the territory of Macedonia. With that regard IZIIS&CMC working group is established and tasked to define objectives and scope of cooperation, formulate the action plan, explore IT connectivity of both institutions and define program and measures to assure sustainability of the network developed. As a first priority, IZIIS&CMC WG shall select facilities operated by CMC where the accelerometers will be installed. CRC offers ready electric power and Internet access, as well as round-the-clock guarding of installed equipment. E.3 Milestones for the next six months In the next six months of the project performance the following tasks shall be completed: 1. IZIIS&CMC WG selection of CMC for installation of Guralp 5TD accelerographs this task shall be completed by the 1st half of May 2010 in order that installation is completed by June Ground noise and geophysical measurements at selected accelerograph sites, completion of installation of 13 strong motion accelerograph stations by of June, 2010 (Geophysical measurements can be performed later, depending on the dynamyc of procurement of the geophysical equipment); 23

24 3. Verification of seismic zones following smoothed seismicity approach including all preparations necessary for meeting of the Source characterization focus group (2nd half of May 2010); 4. Analytical studies of seismic hazard using OHAZ and other reference software packages; 5. Improvement of GIS mapping and analysis capability including refinement of needed GIS layers, 6. Obligations undertaken at Sarajevo, BiH, Meeting of 9 April 9, 2010 organization of meeting of Source Characterization and potentially of PSHA focus groups (Second half of May, 2010). E.4 Involvement of young scientists From the beginning of the project, two young scientists (Ms. Radmila Shalic, MSc. and Ms. Irena Gjorgjeska) were involved in realization of project activities. Ms. Radmila Shalic, research assistant in UKIM-IZIIS, Skopje, is well progressing with her PhD. Thesis: "Advanced Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment of Republic of Macedonia (Working Title)". Her formal administrative application for commencement of the elaboration of Doctoral Thesis works in accordance with the Statute of the University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, December 2008, was submeeted in July 2009 ( ). On its session held on , the Scientific Council of UKIM-IZIIS nominated Committee for Evaluation of the Compliance of Doctoral Thesis and the Capability of the Candidate: o Prof. Dr. Snezana Stamatovska, president o Prof. Dr. Zoran Milutinovic, mentor, member o Prof. Dr. Dragi Dojcinovski, member mandated to, in accordance with the Article 237 of the UKIM Statute, evaluate the compliance and scope of the Doctoral Thesis proposed under the working title Advanced Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment for Republic of Macedonia and the capability of the Candidate against requirements of the Article 237 of the UKIM Statute, as well as elaborate the report and publish it in the Bulletin of University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje. The Report of the Committee for Evaluation of the Compliance of Doctoral Thesis and the Capability of the Candidate, is published in Bulletin of University Ss. Cyril and Methodius No. 969 of 1 September 2009 (Annex C), and accepted by UKIM- IZIIS Scientific Committee on its session held on year (Decision /1 of ). Ms. Irena Gjorgjeska, in September 2009, submitted the formal administrative application to the Scientific Council of UKIM-IZIIS for commencement of the elaboration of Master Thesis under the tentative title Application of Surface Waves Methods for Local Seismogeologic Investigations. The Committee for Evaluation of the Compliance of Master Thesis and of the Capability of the Candidate is nominated on the session of the UKIM-IZIIS Scientific Council, held on March 31,

25 E.5 Major travels In the reporting period travels were dominantly related to training and Project promotion activities, i.e.: 1. Training of Ms. Radmila Shalic at GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, period 1. September 23 December, Participation at International conference Banja Luka Earthquake 40 Years of Engineering Experience, agenda: (1) Promotion of NATO SfP achievements, and (2) participation at 5th SfP Workshop, October, 2009, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina; Participants: Prof. Dr. Mihail GAREVSKI, Prof. Dr. Zoran MILUTINOVIC, Prof. Dr. Snezana STAMATOVSKA and Prof. Dr. Lazo PEKEVSKI; 3. Participation of Prof. Dr. Snezana STAMATOVSKA at 2nd ADEA Meeting / Workshop, Ankara E.6 Visibility of SfP project The project and ongoing activities have several times been mentioned on national television by Macedonian project Co-Director Prof. Mihail Garevski and Prof. Zoran Milutinovic. A comprehensive article has been published in "PORTA" Journal of Civil construction, Architecture and Ecology. The Project was reported and promoted on the several meetings of EUR-OPA Major Hazard Agreement and the Annual Board of Directors of the Network of Specialized Euro-Mediterranean Centers of Councils' of Europe Major Hazard Agreement (EUR- OPA MHA). Further promotion will be made on the Annual Meeting of the Permanent Correspondents of EUR-OPA MHA to be held in Dubrovnik, Croatia, period: October 16-18, It is hoped that promotion at this very particular meeting will be helpful for rising an additional budget of about 6,000 for the year of Two technical presentations on the objectives and scope as well as on the achievements of the Project have been made at GFZ, Potsdam, Germany by Ms. Radmila Shalic, MSc, during her study stay and training period in the GFZ Center. E.7 Technical and administrative difficulties There were no technical and administrative difficulties in project realization. E.8 Changes in personnel No changes in this period E.9 Changes in project plan There were no changes in project realization regarding the project plan. 25

26 F) SERBIA F. 1 Major Accomplishments In the period October 2007/ April 2010, Seismological Survey of Serbia conducted the consistent to the methodology, project structure and activities of the approved Project. The most important activities in the period from the beginning of a Project have been: 1. preparation and compilation of national earthquake catalogue; 2. seismic source investigation and determination; 3. analysis of available ground motion prediction models; 4. comparative seismic hazard assessment using different GMP models using OHAZ software; seismic hazard assessment for the test area; 5. preparation of thematic GIS maps for the territory of Serbia; 6. equipment purchase and deployment; 7. purchase of a GIS software (MapInfo+V.Mapper); 8. joint training course on GIS software; 9. assigning stipends for young researchers. Within Working Package 1 (WP 1.) Preparation and compilation of earthquake catalogue data), the participants from our institution finished national earthquake catalogue, which involved: survey of available catalogues; re-assessment of historical earthquakes and fulfillment of missing data; analysis of the national catalogue completeness and de-clustering of the catalogue. Unification of magnitudes is performed by conversion of Ms to Mw. Various papers which treat the subject have been analized and relations for conversion ML/Mb/Ms to Mw are proposed. According to the analysis of magnitudes published in ISC it was deduced that there are 180 earthquakes with Ms and mb pair of magnitudes. Using published relations for conversion magnitudes to Mw, based on Ms-mb pairs, by the regression analysis L2 normalised, the equation for magnitude conversion is defined: Ms=1.263(+/-0.054)mb-1.505(+/-0.244), for the magnitude range 3.5=<mb=<6.1 Within WP 2. (Seismic source investigation and determination), seismic sources for the territory of Serbia and surroundings have been investigated. Digital map with the main tectonic faults on the territory of Serbia have been performed, in cooperation with the Department for Remote Sensing Geology from the Faculty for Mining and Geology at Belgrade University. Based on a careful consideration of the main tectonic structures and their correlation with geological setting, seismic characteristics and focal mechanisms, preliminary source zones was delineated. Parameters defining occurrence of earthquakes in the source zones are evaluated: threshold magnitude; maximum expected magnitude; Gutenberg-Richter earthquake recurrence parameter b-value. Within WP 3. (Determination of ground motion prediction model), available GMP models have been tested: Sabetta, 1996; Ambraseys et al., 1996; vertical acceleration Ambraseys and Douglas, The result was significant difference in calculated acceleration. New attenuation relatons will be derived and tested using isoseismal maps for the strongest earthquakes. Also, attenuation relations for two diiferent regions will be attempted. The decision should be made which prediction model will be used. et al., 1996; vertical Within WP 4. (Seismic hazard assessment), besides for several construction sites, tentative calculation of seismic hazard for the territory of Serbia has been performed, based on available data (Fig.1 ). Alternative software OHAZ 6.0 have been adapted. 26

27 Within WP 5. (Preparation of GIS background and thematic maps), all of the templates was processed and prepared up to the level suitable for the interpretation. Seismic data were compared with tectonics, morphology and geological map. It have been concluded that the resulting rupture model should be supplemented and templates readjusted with digital elevation model in the same referent system. Fig. 1 - Seismic Hazard Map of the Serbia and surroundings; lines and colors represent peak horizontal ground accelerations in g units Within WP 6. (Equipment purchase and deployment), Seismological Survey of Serbia received twelve (12) units of strong motion instruments; model ETNA on August 11, 2008 (10 units purchased from NATO funds+2 units free of charge-1 damaged in flood). Since all of the units have been successfully deployed (Fig. 2), the remaining activity which should be achieved by the end of next six month period is investigation of instrument site characteristics. This task shall be carried out in cooperation with assigned geophysical institution. Constant field monitoring of recording accuracy and coping of recorded data are conducted. Seismological Survey of Serbia have taken part in the project of modernization of seismic equipment in Bosnia and Herzegovina which is financed by Slovakian government. The Project is approved after the initiative which have began two years ago in Belgrade when the specification is defined considering the present seismic sensors in B&H and expert opinion of Slovakian colleagues. The result is 8 digitizers, type Wave and 2 acquisition computers for two seismological centers. In cooperation with Banja Luka, seismic sensors were prepared (modified and calibrated). In addition, we have installed shared seismic station in Doboj, Republic Srpska and on the mountain Fruska Gora in Serbia, conjoint equipment is installed at seismic station. Also, we selected internet provider for common stations. Within WP 7. (Software purchase), MapInfo +Vertical Mapper GIS software has been acquired and is already in use. Software for analysis of strong motion data has been received with strong motion instruments and the recorded data have been 27

28 analyzed using this software. OHAZ 6.o software was was used for the assessment as it was mentioned earlier. Within WP 8. (Project coordination activities), participants have communicated in order to make agreement on next workshop. Within WP 9. (Training of young scientists), according to the previous agreement, we have organized joint training course on GIS software application. The training was held at Divcibare, on April 21-23, Participants from all institutions successfully took part in training activities. Fig. 2 Strong motion instruments type ETNA deployed in Serbia F. 2 Actions to insure the implementation of result All the relevant results derived from the Project activities are implemented in seismic hazard assessment for the regional spatial plans and for the design of earthquake resistant structures within the scope of the projects of local civil engineering companies. F. 3 Milestones for the next six months In the next six moths of project realization, the following tasks should be accomplished: investigation of instrument site characteristic, purchasing of licensed software for seismic hazard assessment such as EZ FRISK; further identification of seismic source zones and analysis of earthquake recurrence inside identified seismic source zones; investigation of available GMP models and the comparison of the results. F. 4 Involvement of young scientists Young researcher Dragana Petrovic, B.S. in geophysics, has been involved in Project activities from August 2008 to July 2009 and from November 2009 to February Young researcher Natasha Kotur, B.S. in geophysics, has been involved in Project activities since February In the next six month period the young researcher will participate in Project tasks. 28