The Melting Arctic and Implications for Transport Infrastructure

Transcription

1 The Melting Arctic and Implications for Transport Infrastructure July 2016 Marjorie McGuirk Asheville, North Carolina USA CASE Consultants International Thirteenth International Seminar on Climate Systems and Climate Change (ISCS), July 2016, Chengdu, China, Beijing Climate Center.

2 The Melting Arctic and Implications for Transport Infrastructure 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic ice caps & opening passages for shipping. 2. Transport drives the patterns of human settlement and trade routes shape the course of history. 3. New settlements will grow in the Arctic along with new trade routes & transport infrastructure.

3 Sources: McGuirk, Marjorie. "The Melting Arctic and Implications for Transport Infrastructure." Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio- Economic Research. Atlanta, GA: American Meteorological Society Annual Conference, 5 February Presentation. McGuirk, Marjorie. The Melting Arctic and New Trade Routes. MLA thesis. University of North Carolina Asheville, The Melting Arctic Ice Cap and Emerging New Trade Routes will Shift Population at Centers Involved in the Shipment of Goods." University of North Carolina Asheville, 22 November Presentation..

4 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap In September 2012, the ice cap was 50% smaller than the average over the last three decades

5 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap National Snow and Ice Data Center In September 2012, the ice cap was 50% smaller than the average over the last three decades Stroeve, Julienne. "The Arctic's Rapidly Shrinking Sea Ice Cover: A Research Synthesis." Climatic Change 110 (2011): Overland, James E. and MuyinWang. When Will the Summer Arctic be Nearly Sea Ice Free? Geophysical Research Letters40 (2013): 1-5

6 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap National Snow and Ice Data Center

7 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap

8 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap Areal Extent of Arctic Ocean Ice Cover 11.0 Boxplot of Extent Extent Extent Year Early/Late 2 Source: Left NSIDC. Right Author. Left: minimum sea ice coverage yearly. Right: sea ice averages in early years ( ) compared to more recent years ( ). Monthly September ice extent for 1979 to 2015 shows a decline of 13.4% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. In September 2012, the ice cap was 50% smaller than the average over the last three decades. Source: NSIDC National Snow and Ice Data Center NOAA

9 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap Data: NOAA, National Snow and Ice Data Center ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/datasets/noaa/g02135/sep/n_09_area.txt

10 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic and passages are opening for shipping.

11 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic and passages are opening for shipping. Northern Sea Route Obs SRESA1B North West Passage Obs SRESA1B Khon, V. C., and I. I. Mokhov. "Arctic Climate Changes and Possible Conditions of Arctic Navigation in the 21st Century." Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 46.1 (2008): Print.

12 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic and passages are opening for shipping.

13 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic and passages are opening for shipping. Northern Sea Route Administration Ship traffic picks up as sea ice concentration drops down during a yearly cycle

14 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic and passages are opening for shipping. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Age of Arctic sea ice from 1990 to March 2016 weekly time lapse images Sources: Data; Mark Tschudi, University of Colorado-Boulder., Video; Old Ice in Arctic Vanishingly Rare NOAA Climate.gov Perovich, D., W. Meier, M. Tschudi, S. Farrell, S. Gerland, and S. Hendricks. (2015). Chapter 4: Sea Ice. In Jeffries, M.O., Richter- Menge, J., Overland, J.E. (2015)Arctic Report Card: Update for 2015 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

15 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic and passages are opening for shipping.

16 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic and passages are opening for shipping. Why is this important?

17 2. Transport drives the patterns of human settlement time lapse US frontier ons/population-growth.htm

18 2. Transport drives the patterns of human settlement time lapse US frontier

19 2. Transport drives the pattern and trade routes shape the course of history

20 2. Transport drives the pattern and trade routes shape the course of history US EU CHINA

21 2. Trade routes shape the course of history

22 2. Trade routes shape the course of history

23 2. Transport drives the pattern and trade routes shape the course of history SIX GENERATIONS

24 2. Trade routes shape the course of history Sources: Left Suez Canal Authority shows number and type of ships sailing through the Suez Canal in September Right: graph shows for the Northern Sea Route the mount of cargo in 1,000 dead weight tons passing through route per year in red, and the number of navigation days in blue. Derived from Drent, Jan. Commercial Shipping on the Northern Sea Route." The Northern Mariner 3.1(1993): Suez Canal Northern Sea Route Administration

25 Change on the Horizon Drent, Jan, Commercial Shipping on the Northern Sea Route, The Northern Mariner/Le Marin du nord, III, No. 2 (April 1993), 1-17

26 Change on the Horizon Climate plus multiple factors Photo credit: Port of Los Angeles The opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 and the invention of containers in 1956 transformed this once sleepy port into one of the world s busiest ports

27 US Trade with China less than Russia and Europe Trade with China Reliability matters more than distance?

28 Shipping Lines

29 Shipping Lines

30 Change on the Horizon «Shipping rates are low, the bunker fuel is cheap and there is a general decline in world economy and a shrinking demand in China», Sergey Balmasov from the Northern Sea Route Information Office. The Chinese general cargo carrier «Yong Sheng... accounted for more than 75 percent of the 2015 NSR cargo. Source: Atle Staalesen, Independent Barents Observer 15 February Data Source: Northern Sea Route Information Office In 2015 no ice breaker assistance for 14 of 18 voyages The Yong Sheng transited between Shainghai and Varberg, Sweden carrying a windmill tower and blades NSR Administration - Ship traffic picks up as sea ice concentration drops down during a yearly cycle

31 Change on the Horizon Arctic Shipping Routes -Cost Comparisons with Suez (by Tor Wergeland) Comparing NWP Suez cost Arctic Shipping Routes - Cost Comparisons with Suez ARCTIS Database (Arctic Resources and Transportation Information System) +Cost+Comparisons+with+Suez&structure=Arctic+Sea+Routes#The_Passages_in_Comparison

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36 3. New settlements will grow in the Arctic

37 3. New settlements will grow in the Arctic

38 3. New settlements will grow in the Arctic Drent, Jan. Commercial Shipping on the Northern Sea Route." The Northern Mariner 3.1(1993): 1-17.

39 3. New settlements will grow in the Arctic Drent, Jan. Commercial Shipping on the Northern Sea Route." The Northern Mariner 3.1(1993): 1-17.

40 3. New settlements will grow in the Arctic Dudinka, navigable year round, excluding Spring ice breaks, stevedoring companies, nickel, metal, oil Source: c Tiksi, navigable July-October, serves Arctic communities, containers, timber, construction. Source:

41 3. New settlements will grow in the Arctic Murmansk, ice free year round, 200 stevedoring companies, Arctic destination containers, metals, fertilizers, oil, passengers, gantry cranes Source: Pevekis located on the shore of the East Siberian Sea in ChaunskayaBay. The port works only during the period of summer navigation (July-October). Handles coal, container freights, industrial equipment, ferrous metals, and timber freights. Main port of NSR. Source:

42 High tech sites envisioned But population has declined in Russia Source: Nordregio Designer/Cartographer Johanna Roto Data source National Statistics Institutions Published 28 July 2011

43 3. New settlements will grow in the Arctic the Arctic economy grew over 31% , faster than the rate of growth for the Arctic nations (2.1%) development projects proposed for Greenland, Nunavut, Finland, Russian and Alaskan arctic seas Warming gives access by sea -lowers cost delivery of supplies and of shipment of the resources to markets Source: The Arctic Human Development Report II: Regional Processes and Global Linkages Fact Sheet, Arctic Council, Sustainable Development Working Group (SDWG), Lead Authors:LeeHuskey(US),IlmoMaaenpaa(FI),Alexander Pelyasov(RU), 8th Ministerial Meeting, Kiruna, Sweden, 15 May 2013.

44 3. New settlements will grow in the Arctic But Not Yet High-cost harsh environment resources far from markets in sparsely settled land harsh winters requires special designs poor soil condition requires additional site preparations long supply lines requiring large inventories of parts limited transport access higher wages and salaries to recruit personnel Multiple ship rotations necessary to realize benefits Source: The Arctic Human Development Report II: Regional Processes and Global Linkages Fact Sheet, Arctic Council, Sustainable Development Working Group (SDWG), Lead Authors:LeeHuskey(US),IlmoMaaenpaa(FI),Alexander Pelyasov(RU), 8th Ministerial Meeting, Kiruna, Sweden, 15 May 2013.

45 Questions? The Melting Arctic and New Trade Routes 1. Global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap and passages are opening for shipping transport trade routes 2. Transport drives the patterns of human settlement and trade routes shape the course of history 3 New settlements will grow in the Arctic along with new trade routes & transport infrastructure. Citation: McGuirk, Marjorie. "The Melting Arctic and Implications for Transport Infrastructure." Thirteenth International Seminar on Climate Systems and Climate Change (ISCS), July 2016, Chengdu, China, Beijing Climate Center. Thank you MarjorieMcGuirk@gmail.com CASEConsultantsInternational.com Asheville, North Carolina

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