Present day natural processes in the Russian Arctic and prospects of the Northern sea route use

Transcription

1 Present day natural processes in the Russian Arctic and prospects of the Northern sea route use Vjacheslav M. Makeev The State Polar Academy Saint-Petersburg, Russia

2 Temporal rows of annual air temperature abnormalities for the Arctic sea regions

3 Temporal rows of average annual precipitation sums total

4 Change of the total reiteration of circulation forms W+E, characterizing the activity of the Islandic minimum in

5 Change of the annual average air temperature abnormalities in the Arctic from 1900 to 2010

6 Long-term changes of the Arctic anticyclone reiteration abnormalities from 1949 to 2010

7 Types of atmospheric process characteristic of the circumpolarzone of the hemisphere

8 Changes of abnormalities of ESP (1) and NAO (2) indexes in

9 Abnormalities of the annual level averaged by the regions of the Arctic sea a) south-west of the Kara sea b) north of the Kara sea c) east of the Kara sea d) south of the Laptevyh sea e) the New Siberian islands f) the east Siberian sea Straight lines depict the trends

10 Actual, average and extreme values of icing (thousands square km.) of the Northern polar region and isolated areas in the middle of September in and for the period of

11 Dynamics of the area of sea ice in the Arctic ocean for last 4 years from 2007 up to 2010 Arctic ice map for Arctic ice map for Arctic ice map for Arctic ice map for

12 Temperature abnormality 5-year averaged prognostic values of air temperature abnormalities in moderate and high latitudes of the Northern hemisphere for the whole of the 21st century

13 Russian transport passage Northern Sea Route within the system of international transport passages West-East-West

14 Conclusions 1. Climate warming that is observed in many regions of moderate high latitudes of the Northern hemisphere in the last years is one of the episodes of the constant global quasi-rhythmic climate fluctuations. 2. Modern Arctic warming is caused to a great extent by the shift of the Icelandic minimum CAA to the North and its high-latitudinal cyclone activity (North Atlantic Oscillation), which entailed weakening of the Arctic anticyclone influence, as well as exceptionally high inflow of the warm Atlantic water in the Arctic ocean (Gulf-stream). 3. These factors, with their transference mechanisms, influence the elements of geodynamics of the earth spheres, including the global circulation of atmosphere and major Centres of Action of the Atmosphere (CAA) Icelandic, Aleut minimum, Arctic, Azorean and Hawaiian maximums and others. 4. Recent recovering of the arctic anticyclone, which occurs every 60 years, indicates the beginning of the new circulation stage in the polar atmosphere that will lead to the destruction of the Icelandic minimum, fall of temperatures and increase of the ice coverage area.

15 5. According to the scenario for the 21 st century taking into account solar-planetary intercourse the cyclic processes will repeat with a general trend in direction of cold snap. 6. Even the trend described in the above mentioned scenario won t influence the work of the Northern Sea Route because of its strategical role for the sustainable development of the Russian Arctic. 7. The Northern Sea Route infrastructure is in rather a poor condition now and requires modernization if we are planning international navigation in this region.