A workshop on the theme of clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity March in Schloss Ringberg, Germany

Transcription

1 Clouds, circulation, and climate sensitivity simulated by NICAM Global nonhydrostatic model simulations with single and double momentum cloud microphysics schemes and evaluation using satellite simulators Contents 3 quick topics Use of TRMM PR to improve single moment scheme: Roh and Satoh (2014) Cloud feedback & cloud size analysis: Noda et al.(2014,submitted), Chen et al.(in prep) Masaki Satoh (AORI, The Univ. of Tokyo/JAMSTEC) with W. Roh, A. T. Noda, Y. Yamada, C. Kodama, T. Seiki, Y. W. Chen, AICS team Grand Challenge Workshop (Ringberg) A workshop on the theme of clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity March in Schloss Ringberg, Germany

2 NICAM 870m-mesh simulation Miyamoto et al. (2013,GRL) using the K computer Dx=870 m Dx=3.5 m Radius-height cross sections for composites of vertical velocity w

3 obs NICAM APE (Yoshizaki et al. 2012ab,SOLA) & RCE Ω=Ω Ω=0 ST onstant APE Dx=60km RCE

4 GPM First light (Global Precipitation Mission) DPR & GMI 25 March 2014 JAXA/NASA Launch 28 Feb

5 Improvement of single momentum scheme using satellite data (TRMM) Roh and Satoh (2014,JAS) Use of stretch-nicam to evaluate and improve cloud microphysics for clouds over tropical open ocean Evaluation using the satellite simulator SDSU (Masunaga et al. 2010, BAMS) for TBB(11um) and TRMM PR. Horizontal distribution of TBB (6UTC 2 nd Jan 2007) Convective bands over the analysis domain are reproduced well at almost the same location.

6 Joint histogram of echo top height and TBB TRMM NICAM CTL NICAM Modified 2 Modification of microphysics scheme 1. Common modifications Saturation adjustment for cloud ice Ice nucleation and ice deposition (Hong et al. 2004) Turn off collection terms of snow and ice by graupel (Lang et al. 2007) 2. Introduction of observed relation of size distributions rain (Zhang et al ), snow(field et al. 2005) graupel (Locatelli and Hobbs 1974) qc, qr, qi, qs, qg; f(x) = N0 exp (- λx) Stratiform 1. Overestimation of frequencies over 12 km 2. Underestimation of stratiform precipitation CTL: N0=const. Convective Modified : N0=N0(T, q) observed relation Houze et al. 2004

7 Cloud Radiative Feedback NICAM-CMIP3/5 MMES comparison Single vs double momentum schemes Dx=14km; 3 months CTL: June-Aug 2004 GW: with control SST + ΔSST of CMIP3 MME Chen, Seiki, Kodama, et al (2014,in prep) NSW6: Single moment cloud microphysics scheme (Tomita, 2008, JMSJ) NDW6: Double moment cloud microphysics scheme (Seiki and Nakajima, 2013 JAS) The results are very similar. Cloud Radiation Feedback of CMIP3/5 models [W/m 2 /K] including thin/subvisible Based on Zelinka et al. [2012,13]

8 Cloud size analisys Add new dimensions to ISCCP 1. Cloud top 2. Cloud depth: optical thickness 3. Cloud size Cloud Size COT CTP

9 Statistics of cloud size of upper clouds Inoue et al. (2008, JMSJ) cf. Mapes and Houze (1993, MWR) MTSAT-1R High clouds: TOA energy balance Size related microphysics parameters: tunable 3.5km mesh NICAM 頻度 obs 3.5km mesh 7km mesh 7km mesh NICAM Cloud size[km]

10 PDFs of high-cloud numbers as a function of cloud size Obs. the global infrared data (Global-IR) R7 (dx=7km) and R14 (dx=14km) runs of the one-year CTL and GW simulations Cloud size (radius) is binned every 20 km, and the sum of all values is unity.

11 Change in numbers of each size of upper clouds More anvil numbers in all size categories

12 Cloud radiative forcing contributed by each size of high clouds Ave: 63.8W/m 2 Diff: +0.75W/m 2 Clouds smaller than 50 km mostly contribute to changes in cloud radiative forcing Ave: W/m 2 Diff: -0.77W/m 2

13 Cloud forcing and its change & IWP/LWP and changes by each size of high clouds

14 Tropical cyclone contributions Number of TCs decreases. Number of high clouds associated with TCs also decreases. Different from the increase of the total number of high clouds. : TC clouds behave differently.

15 Summary of the studies Analyze and interpret cloud changes due to global warming using NICAM (Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model), based on cloud microphysics processes without cumulus parameterization Collins and Satoh (2009), Satoh et al. (2013, JCLI), Tsushima et al. (2014, in review) Changes in upper cloud fraction, ice water path, cloud forcing, and circulations Evaluation & improvement of cloud microphysics schemes, comparison and development Evaluation using satellite simulators (Hashino et al., 2013, JGR; Roh and Satoh, 2014 JAS) Double moment microphysics scheme (Seiki and Nakajima, 2013 JAS) Bin microphysics (Kuba et al., 2014 JGR) Analyze and evaluate cloud changes associated with convective systems (tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, cloud clusters, MJOs) Tropical cyclones (Yamada and Satoh, 2013 JCLI) Cloud clusters & upper clouds (Noda et al. 2014, in review) Extratropical cyclones (Kodama et al., 2014, submitted)

16 Summary Cloud changes simulated by NICAM Statistics of upper clouds Cloud fraction increase Number of high clouds increases in all categories of cloud size Smaller clouds more contributed to cloud forcing and its change For each cloud, IWP decreases, magnitude of both LW/SW CRF decreases TC clouds decrease

17 Cloud changes simulated by NICAM Wider and Thinner in warmer climate Changes of upper clouds (Satoh et al. 2012) Increase in upper cloud fraction Decrease in ice water path CFMIP1: Zelinka et al.(2012,jcli)

18 Cloud feedback CMIP3 MME NICAM LW Global average SW Global average Zelinka et al. [2012] Cloud radiation feedback [W/m 2 /K]

19 Cloud Fraction Change: NDW6 and NSW6 Present Climate Cloud Fraction Distribution: Cloud fraction distributions are similar in NDW6 and NSW6 Both NDW6 and NSW6 produce high and thin cloud most Cloud Fraction Change when Atmosphere Warms: Cloud fraction changes in high and thin clouds are different In NDW6, high and thin clouds increase In NSW6, high and thin clouds decrease NDW6 JUN.-AUG. NSW6 JUN.-AUG. PRESENT FUTURE - PRESENT Questions to Ask: a) At what region that high and thin clouds are sensitive to NDW6 and NSW6 b) What is the main factor to produce the different response on high and thin clouds NSW6 ONE-YEAR

20 Precipitable Water Ice Water Path Liquid Water Path

21 Tropical cyclones changes simulated by NICAM Decrease in number Larger size, intensified Yamada et al. (2010, Geophys. Res. Lett.) Yamada and Satoh (2013, JCLI) 14km mesh experiment, 1season, 5 months experiment with cloud scheme by Grabowski(1998)

22 Number concentration Bulk cloud microphysics schemes Single vs double moment schemes Number of cloud particles:~10 8 /m 3 Evaluate evolution of particle growth Particle size distribution 1 Moment (NSW6) Particle size 2 Moment (NDW6) NSW6: 1 moment scheme: qc, qr, qi, qs, qg; f(x) = N0 exp (- λx) NDW6: 2 moment scheme: (qc, Nc), (qr, Nr), (qi,ni), (qs,ns), (qg,ng)

23 Modification of microphysics scheme Brief description of modification and sensitivity tests 1. Common modifications Saturation adjustment for cloud ice Ice nucleation and ice deposition (Hong et al. 2004) Turn off collection terms of snow and ice by graupel (Lang et al. 2007) 2. Introduction of observed relation of size distributions A. Snow B. Graupel C. Rain 1) Parameterizations of size distributions 2) Sensitivity tests of density effects 1) N 0G 2) Sensitivity tests of Mass-dimension relationship 1) MP distribution 2) Zhang et al method 3) The combined method qc, qr, qi, qs, qg; f(x) = N0 exp (- λx) CTL: N0=const. Modified : N0=N0(T, q) observed relation

24 Total 20 Height (km) Summary of results Obs Control Modi CTL Modi Control Modi 20 dbz 60

25 Experiments NICAM: Nonhydorstatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model Resolution: 7km & 14km, L40 Integration: one year experiments Control: June 2004-May 2005 Future (Global Warming): June 20xxwith control SST + ΔSST of CMIP3 MME Physics cloud microphysics: single moment scheme (NSW6) PBL: Moller-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino: MYNN2 Radiation: mstrnx Analysis method Use 210 W/m 2 of OLR/253K of TBB to define high clouds Following Inoue et al. (2008,JMSJ)