Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of GPM/DP R Reflectivity into the Nonhydrostatic Icosahed ral Atmospheric Model NICAM
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1 Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of GPM/DP R Reflectivity into the Nonhydrostatic Icosahed ral Atmospheric Model NICAM Shunji Kotsuki1, Koji Terasaki1, Shigenori Otsuka1, Kenta Kurosawa1, and Takemasa Miyoshi1,2 Data Assimilation Research Team, RIKEN-AICS, Japan 2 University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA 1 6th ISDA, March 09, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität,
2 Project Overview GPM NICAM LETKF (JAXA) Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (Hunt et al. 2007) Goal: Look for most effective use of GPM precipitation measurements.
3 NICAM-LETKF (NWP) system System developed (Terasaki et al. 2014, SOLA) AMSU-A assimilated (Terasaki and Miyoshi 2018, JMSJ) MHS assimilated (Chandramouli et al., in prep.) GSMaP assimilated (Kotsuki et al. 2017, JGR-A) Model parameter w/ GSMaP (Kotsuki et al., in revision) Adaptive-RTPP&RTPS (Kotsuki et al. 2017, QJRMS) EFSO implemented (Kotsuki et al., in prep.; Poster 5.10) Accounting for correlated R (Terasaki et al., in prep.) System accelerated (Yashiro et al. 2016, GMD) Extrapolation nowcast system System developed (Otsuka et al. 2016, WAF) This presentation Merging nowcast & NWP for global precip. FCST
4 Merging nowcast & NWP for global precipitation FCST
5 GSMaP: Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (NASA)
6 Extrapolation nowcast with DA (Otsuka, Kotsuki, and Miyoshi 2016, WAF)
7 GSMaP_RNC=NICAM-LETKF Seamless Precip. FCST Real-time GSMaP_NRT hourly, 0.10deg) 12hr 4hr GSMaP_RNC (hourly, 0.10deg)
8 GSMaP_RNC=NICAM-LETKF Seamless Precip. FCST Real-time 12hr GSMaP_NRT hourly, 0.10deg) 4hr GSMaP_RNC (hourly, 0.10deg) 120hr NICAM-LETKF (6-hourly, 112-km) 4hr Every-6hr 4hr NICAM-FCST (hourly, 112-km) 120hr GSMaP_RNC=NICAM-LETKF Seamless FCST (hourly, 0.10deg) MERGE grid wgrid NICAM grid (1 wgrid ) NOWCASTgrid
9 Local Threat Score (LTS) defined Global Threat Score GTS (t ) TPG (t ) TPG (t ) FPG (t ) FN G (t ) X G (t ) X i (t ) Si Obs. True Obs. False FCST Positive TP FP FCST Negative FN TN i global sampling, timedependent X j TPj, FPj, FN j, TPj S: pixel size (km2)
10 Local Threat Score (LTS) defined ti m e Grid i Di Global Threat Score GTS (t ) TPG (t ) TPG (t ) FPG (t ) FN G (t ) X G (t ) X i (t ) Si i Local Threat Score LTSi TPL,i TPL,i FPL,i FN L,i X L,i X j (t ) Sj global sampling, timedependent X j TPj, FPj, FN j, TPj S: pixel size (km2) t j Di local & temporal sampling
11 Spatially-estimated Weight (2014/09~2014/11) MERGE grid wgrid NICAM grid (1 wgrid ) NOWCASTgrid Found the best w from (0, 0.1,, 1.0 FT: 04-hr FT: 08-hr FT: 12-hr NOWCAST NICAM
12 Local Threat Scores (2014/09~2014/11) MERGE grid wgrid NICAM grid (1 wgrid ) NOWCASTgrid Found the best w from (0, 0.1,, 1.0 TP TS TP FP FN Obs. True Obs. False FCST Positive TP FP FCST Negative FN TN masked out if TN 0.99 TP FP FN TN
13 Local Threat Scores (2014/09~2014/11) MERGE grid wgrid NICAM grid (1 wgrid ) NOWCASTgrid Found the best w from (0, 0.1,, 1.0 MERGE NOWCAST
14 Local Threat Scores (2014/09~2014/11) MERGE grid wgrid NICAM grid (1 wgrid ) NOWCASTgrid Found the best w from (0, 0.1,, 1.0 MERGE NOWCAST & NICAM
15 Global Precip. FCST Scores Merged w/ spatial W Merged w/ global W NICAM GSMaP_RNC (nowcast)
16 Assimilating GPM/DPR reflect ivity
17 GPM/DPR (Ku and Ka bands) Sim. 3-D Radar Reflectivity Hou et al.(2014) Level 2 Normal Scan (NS) Matched Scan (MS) High-Sens. (HS) width 245 km 125 km 125 km Δx 5 km 5 km 5km Δz 250 m 250 m 500 m Band Ku Ka Ka
18 Assimilation of GPM/DPR by NICAM-LETKF Without DPR NICAM Ensemble Forecast (GL6;112 km) Xf OBSOPE Xa Xf (PREPBUFR, AMSU-A, GSMaP) X f, y o & HX f LETKF H yo : obs. operator : observation X f,a: guess, analysis (ensemble)
19 Assimilation of GPM/DPR by NICAM-LETKF With DPR NICAM Ensemble Forecast (GL8;28 km) Xf OBSOPE Xa Xf (PREPBUFR, AMSU-A, GSMaP) Xf Joint Simulator GPM/DP R (superob ) X f, y o & HX f LETKF H yo : obs. operator : observation X f,a: guess, analysis (ensemble)
20 First DA step 2014/06/16/0000UTC FG (NICAM) AN (DA) Obs. (GPM/DPR) dbz Column Maximum dbz
21 First DA step 2014/06/16/0000UTC FG (NICAM) AN (DA) Obs. (GPM/DPR) dbz Column Maximum dbz
22 First DA step 2014/06/16/0000UTC FG (NICAM) AN (DA) B A Obs. (GPM/DPR) B A B A dbz Column Maximum dbz
23 First DA step 2014/06/16/0000UTC FG (NICAM) AN (DA) Obs. (GPM/DPR) m KuPR A KuPR B A KuPR B A B m KaPR A KaPR B A KaPR B A dbz B
24 DA cycle experiment (vs. ERA Interim; 2014) RMSD: T RMSD 500 hpa slightly degraded RMSD: Qv RMSD 500 hpa comparable Spread Spread RMSD Spread 700 hpa slightly improved 700 hpa RMSD Spread slightly degraded : CTRL : w/ KuPR & KaPR (thinned by 3x3 grids) : w/ KuPR & KaPR (thinned by 5x5 grids)
25 Effective use of GPM/DPR GPM/DPR 6-hr coverage Maybe too sparse Parameter DA tested
26 Estimating Cloud Microphysic s Parameter with GPM/DPR
27 Single moment cloud microphysics NSW6 NSW6 (vapor, cloud, ice, rain, snow, graupel) Parameters : terminal velocity coefficients vt r,s, g ( D ) c r,s, g D d r,s, g 0 / 1/2 4 g g cg 3 C D 0 1/2 NICAM default NICAM for MJO Cr Cs CD
28 Single moment cloud microphysics NSW6 NSW6 (vapor, cloud, ice, rain, snow, graupel) Parameters : terminal velocity coefficients vt r,s, g ( D ) c r,s, g D d r,s, g 0 / 1/2 4 g g cg 3 C D 0 Cr 1/2 NICAM default NICAM for MJO Cr Cs CD Cs : mean : spread Cd
29 RMSD vs. ERA Interim (2014) RMSD: T Improved by parameter DA RMSD: Qv Degraded by parameter DA
30 Summary Merging nowcast and NWP Local threat score (LTS) defined Spatially-distributed weight estimated w/ LTS Merged Precip. FCST nowcast & NWP Assimilating GPM/DPR reflectivity NICAM-LETKF system updated (112-km 28-k m) Implementing Joint Simulator into NICAM-LETK F GPM/DPR assimilated, but impact is unclear
31 APPENDIX
32 Change in precipitation fields (2014/06/16) CTRL GSMaP Gauge (OBS) TEST (w/ parameter DA) mm/6h
33 Parameter Estimation in NICAM-LETKF 112-km
34 Parameter Estimation in NICAM-LETKF 112-km Online!
35 Estimated Parameter (large scale condensation) Berry (1967) s LSC scheme P B1 l 2 B2 B3 Nc l ρ : air density P: precipitation rate l : cloud water mixing ratio Nc: total # of cloud droplet Default Parameter Estimated Parameter : mean : spread (Kotsuki et al., in revision)
36 Estimated Parameter (large scale condensation) Berry (1967) s LSC scheme P B1 l 2 B2 B3 Nc l ρ : air density P: precipitation rate l : cloud water mixing ratio Nc: total # of cloud droplet Default Parameter Estimated Parameter : mean w/o Parameter DA w/ Parameter DA Precip. FCST improved by parameter DA : spread OBS (GSMaP_Gauge) (Kotsuki et al., in revision)
37 Estimated Parameter (large scale condensation) Berry (1967) s LSC scheme P B1 l 2 B2 B3 Nc l ρ : air density P: precipitation rate l : cloud water mixing ratio Nc: total # of cloud droplet Default Parameter Estimated Parameter : mean w/o Parameter DA w/ Parameter DA Precip. FCST improved by parameter DA : spread OBS (GSMaP_Gauge) (Kotsuki et al., in revision)
38 Satellite-simulator implemented Kotsuki et al. (2014, SOLA)
39 Satellite-simulator implemented Kotsuki et al. (2014, SOLA) : GPM/DPR bright band height (m), - - -: NICAM 0 height (m)
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