Do climate models over-estimate cloud feedbacks?
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1 Do climate models over-estimate cloud feedbacks? Sandrine Bony CNRS, LMD/IPSL, Paris with contributions from Jessica Vial (LMD), David Coppin (LMD) Florent Brient (ETH), Tobias Becker (MPI), Kevin Reed (NCAR) Brian Medeiros (NCAR), Bjorn Stevens (MPI) Grand Challenge Workshop on Climate Sensitivity, Ringberg, March Photo Bjorn Stevens
2 Cloud feedbacks Bony & Stevens, EUCLIPSE book on Clouds & Climate
3 Cloud feedbacks FAT τ -T Bony & Stevens, EUCLIPSE book on Clouds & Climate
4 Cloud feedbacks FAT τ -T Strength of the Mixing Induced Low Cloud (MILC) feedback? Bony & Stevens, EUCLIPSE book on Clouds & Climate
5 Cloud feedbacks FAT Iris effect? τ -T Strength of the Mixing Induced Low Cloud (MILC) feedback? Bony & Stevens, EUCLIPSE book on Clouds & Climate
6 Cloud feedbacks FAT Iris effect? τ -T Strength of the Mixing Induced Low Cloud (MILC) feedback? Do models over-estimate their (positive) low-cloud feedback? Miss a negative cloud feedback? Bony & Stevens, EUCLIPSE book on Clouds & Climate
7 A negative high-cloud feedback associated with an Iris effect? Iris effect: expanding dry, clear areas in a warming climate. Negative LW feedback A strong Iris effect would reconcile models with observations in a number of aspects (low ECS, strong SW cloud feedback, strong HS, etc). Mauritsen and Stevens, Nature Geosci.,2015
8 Is a negative cloud feedback associated with an Iris effect supported by cloud observations?
9 A negative high-cloud feedback associated with an Iris effect? Zelinka and Hartmann (2011) show that when the tropical-mean SST rises during ENSO : high cloud fraction decreases (Iris-like effect) robust physical mechanism SW effects oppose LW effects, resulting in a statistically insignificant net high cloud feedback Zelinka and Hartmann, JGR, 2011 Observational evidence for an Iris effect... but not for a strong negative feedback associated with it
10 A negative high-cloud feedback associated with an Iris effect? Zelinka and Hartmann (2011) show that when the tropical-mean SST rises during ENSO : high cloud fraction decreases (Iris-like effect) robust physical mechanism SW effects oppose LW effects, resulting in a statistically insignificant net high cloud feedback Zelinka and Hartmann, JGR, 2011 Observational evidence for an Iris effect... but not for a strong negative feedback associated with it Does it translate to climate change? Could other mechanisms lead to a stronger Iris effect? e.g. What if convective aggregation increases with temperature? as proposed by CRMs
11 Observational investigation of the radiative impact of changes in convective aggregation For given large-scale forcings (including SST): the atmosphere is drier, clearer (RH, AIRS data) more efficient at radiating heat to space (OLR, CERES data) more aggregation more aggregation Enhanced convective aggregation = Iris-like effect Tobin, Bony & Roca, J. Climate 2012 Tobin et al., JAMES, 2013
12 Observational investigation of the radiative impact of changes in convective aggregation For given large-scale forcings (including SST): the atmosphere is drier, clearer (RH, AIRS data) less efficient at reflecting solar radiation (SW, CERES data) more aggregation more aggregation Tobin, Bony & Roca, J. Climate 2012 Tobin et al., JAMES, 2013
13 Observational investigation of the radiative impact of changes in convective aggregation For given large-scale forcings (including SST): the atmosphere is drier, clearer (RH, AIRS data) LW and SW changes compensate each other (NET, CERES data) more aggregation more aggregation For a given SST: net TOA radiation seems insensitive to aggregation Tobin, Bony & Roca, J. Climate 2012 Tobin et al., JAMES, 2013
14 Is a negative cloud feedback associated with an Iris effect supported by cloud observations? There is evidence for an Iris effect...but not for a negative cloud feedback associated with it (so far) Could a change in convective organization with temperature affect this feedback? Remains to be investigated...
15 Is a negative cloud feedback associated with an Iris effect supported by cloud observations? There is evidence for an Iris effect...but not for a negative cloud feedback associated with it (so far) Could a change in convective organization with temperature affect this feedback? Remains to be investigated... Would GCMs be missing the effects of convective organization and its dependence on temperature?
16 GCMs run in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium 295 K 305 K 3D RCE: aqua-planet no rotation uniform insolation fixed, uniform SST IPSL Like Cloud-Resolving Models: MPI GCMs produce spontaneously a convective organization ( self-aggregation ) NCAR precipitation [mm/d]
17 GCMs run in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium 295 K 305 K 3D RCE: aqua-planet no rotation uniform insolation fixed, uniform SST IPSL Like Cloud-Resolving Models: MPI GCMs produce spontaneously a convective organization ( self-aggregation ) GCMs exhibit an enhanced aggregation of convection at high temperatures NCAR precipitation [mm/d]
18 Effect of rising surface temperatures IPSL GCM Iris effect -like High Hydrological Sensitivity (4 %/K or more) Nearly neutral LW cloud feedback + Strong positive SW cloud feedback = high Climate Sensitivity despite the Iris effect GCMs can produce an Iris-like effect due to changes in convective aggregation with T But SW cloud feedbacks, especially those from low-level clouds, can easily oppose the LW negative feedback associated with the Iris effect
19 Low-cloud feedback Controlled by two competing processes: moistening by surface turbulent fluxes drying by low-tropospheric mixing (shallow convection + shallow circulation) Inter-model differences in the strength of low-tropospheric mixing explains about half of the variance in climate sensitivity (Sherwood et al. 2014).
20 Observational constraints on low-tropospheric (LT) mixing LT mixing by convection Observational constraints suggest a LT convective mixing near the middle of the GCM range LT mixing by large-scale circulation Reanalyses suggest that LT mixing by the large-scale circulation is unrealistically weak in low-sensitivity models Sherwood, Bony and Dufresne, Nature, 2014
21 Additional constraints on convective mixing?
22 Additional constraints on convective mixing? In present-day climate: Models predict contrasted vertical distributions of low-level clouds in shallow cumulus regimes Nam, Bony, Dufresne and Chepfer, GRL, 2012
23 Additional constraints on convective mixing? In present-day climate: Models predict contrasted vertical distributions of low-level clouds in shallow cumulus regimes high γ: shallowness index small Brient, Schneider, Tan and Bony, submitted Nam, Bony, Dufresne and Chepfer, GRL, 2012
24 Additional constraints on convective mixing? In present-day climate: Models predict contrasted vertical distributions of low-level clouds in shallow cumulus regimes The distribution correlates with the strength of low-tropospheric drying by convection shallower low-clouds deeper low-clouds shallower low-clouds convective drying index Brient, Schneider, Tan and Bony, submitted Nam, Bony, Dufresne and Chepfer, GRL, 2012
25 Additional constraints on convective mixing? In present-day climate: Models predict contrasted vertical distributions of low-level clouds in shallow cumulus regimes The distribution correlates with the strength of low-tropospheric drying by convection deeper low-clouds shallower low-clouds Brient, Schneider, Tan and Bony, submitted Nam, Bony, Dufresne and Chepfer, GRL, 2012
26 Additional constraints on convective mixing? In present-day climate: Models predict contrasted vertical distributions of low-level clouds in shallow cumulus regimes The distribution correlates with the strength of low-tropospheric drying by convection deeper low-clouds shallower low-clouds Consistent with the constraint on convective mixing of Sherwood et al. (2014)
27 Conclusion No strong evidence (so far) that GCMs miss a negative cloud feedback associated with the Iris effect Process-oriented observational constraints suggest that lowest-sensitivity models under-estimate the positive low-cloud feedback Suggests that models with ECS lower than 3K are unlikely to be realistic But the investigation should continue...
28 Thank You
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