Patterns in the CERES Global Mean Data, Part 3
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1 Patterns in the CERES Global Mean Data, Part Wild et al Total Solar Irradiance, Albedo, and Cloud Radiative Effects Miklos Zagoni 31 st CERES Science Team Meeting, May 7 9, 2019, Hampton, VA Instead of the traditional paradigm of properties define processes, study how processes define property Graeme Stephens
2 CERES SYN1deg Ed4A Clear-sky, 2000 Oct 2018 Sept SFC SW down = SFC SW up = SFC SW in = SFC LW in = E(SFC) = SW in + LW in = TOA LW = (TOA LW) = Diff = E(SFC) 2 (TOA LW) = 4.3 Wm -2 TOA Net, unadjusted = 4.3 Wm -2
3 Net balancing SW gain = 1.7 LW gain = 2.5 My best: SFC SW in = = SFC LW in = = E (SW + LW in) = = TOA LW = = TOA LW = = Diff = 4.28 = 0.0
4 CERES SYN1deg Ed4A Clear-sky, 2000 Oct 2018 Sep My best: SFC SW + LW net = = TOA LW = = (TOA LW)/ 2 = = Diff = 0.7 = 0.0
5 CERES SYN1deg Ed4A All-sky, 2000 Oct 2018 Sep E(SFC, SW + LW in) = TOA LW = LWCRE = (TOA LW) + LWCRE = Diff = 2.16
6 CERES EBAF Ed2.8 Clear-sky, CLIM YEAR SFC SW in = SFC LW in = E(SFC, SW + LW in) = TOA LW = x (TOA LW) = DIFF = 2(TOA LW) E(SFC, in) = 0.38 Wm -2
7 CERES EBAF Ed2.8 Clear-sky, CLIM YEAR SH+LH (SW + LW Net) = TOA LW = (TOA LW)/ 2 = DIFF = 0.49 Wm -2 G (SFC LW Up TOA LW) = G = TOA LW = DIFF = 0.20 Wm -2
8 CERES EBAF Ed2.8 All-sky, CLIM YEAR SFC SW in = SFC LW in = E(SFC, in) = TOA LW = (TOA LW) = SFC LWCRE = (TOA LW) + SFC LWCRE = DIFF = 0.42 Wm -2
9 CERES EBAF Ed4.0 Clear-sky, CLIM YEAR SFC SW in = SFC LW in = E(SFC, SW + LW in) = TOA LW = (TOA LW) = DIFF = 8.08 Wm -2
10 CERES EBAF Ed4.0 Clear-sky, CLIM YEAR SH+LH (SFC SW + LW Net) = G (SFC LW Up TOA LW) = DIFF = 0.84
11 CERES EBAF Ed4.0 All-sky, CLIM YEAR SFC SW in = = SFC LW in = = E(SFC, SW + LW in) = = TOA LW = = (TOA LW) = = SFC LWCRE = = (TOA LW) + LWCRE = = DIFF = 1.75
12 Why is this important? Mars: E(SFC) << 2OLR Venus: E(SFC) >> 2OLR Earth: E(SFC, clear) = 2OLR(clear) Earth: E(SFC, all) = 2OLR(all) + LWCRE
13 Why is this soooo important? Mars: E(SFC) << 2OLR E(SFC) = (SW + LW) in = 123 Wm -2 2OLR = 2 110; WIN = 97 Wm -2 ; E(SFC) = 2OLR WIN No clouds, leaky greenhouse: WIN is lost without compensation Venus: E(SFC) >> 2OLR E(SFC) = 2OLR + k SFC LWCRE Multiple-closed cloud layers, WIN = 0 Earth: E(SFC, clear) = 2OLR(clear) = Wm -2 E(SFC, clear) = 2ASR(clear) WIN(clear) + LWCRE E(SFC, clear) = EXACT! Earth: E(SFC, all) = 2OLR(all) + LWCRE Leaky greenhouse + partial cloud cover: Atmospheric window closed by the blanketing effect of clouds
14 = 66 W m -2 g
15 Mars: WIN is lost without compensation OLR = WIN + ATM
16 Earth: WIN is closed by LWCRE Effectively closed shell, number of free paths:τ = 2
17 Schwarzschild E. A. Milne (1922) Radiative equilibrium: the insolation of an atmospehere. Phil Mag 44
18 Some simplifications do not hold well, still Inner boundary : Effective temp : Outer boundary = SFC LW up : OLR : ATM LW up = 3/2 : 1 : 3/4
19 SFC Temp Discontinuity = OLR/2 Goody and Yung (1989) independent of τ
20 Goody s greenhouse solution for atmospheres in radiative equilibrium With = 2 we have Discontinuity at the groud = OLR/2
21 Temp discontinuity at the ground = OLR/2 (= convective flux) E(SFC, τ = 2) = 2OLR
22 SYN1deg and EBAF got it right. There is a set of constraints. For some reason, Earth works on that limiting state. SW + LW net = OLR/2 E(SFC) = 2 OLR ULW = 3 OLR/2 ATM = 3 OLR/4 WIN G = OLR/4 = OLR/2
23 Exxxact! Clear-sky: WIN G SW + LW net ATM LW up TOA LW SFC LW up E(SFC) SW + LW in (TOA LW)
24 g ATM LW up = 3OLR/4 = OLR WIN = OLR/4 SFC LW up = 3OLR/2 SH+LH = OLR/2 E(SFC) = 2OLR
25 Direct consequence Below clouds: cavity Waves in a cavity: quantized F = N UNIT UNIT: the smallest flux component: LWCRE UNIT = LWCRE = TSI/51 = / 51 = Wm -2
26 Wave propagation in a closed box: F = N UNIT, N = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
27 Earth s energy flows: quantized, N is related to Total Solar Irradiance TSI = 51 Diff Wm-2 LWCRE = 1 Incoming Solar Radiation = 51/4 0.0 TOA SW Up (all) = 15/4 0.8 ASR(all) = OLR(all) = 36/4 0.0 TOA SW Up (clear) = 8/4 0.0 ASR(clear) = 43/4 0.0 OLR(clear) = 40/4 1.3 WIN(clear) = 10/4 0.2 LWQ = 28/4 0.2 SFC SW down (clear) = 37/4 0.2 SFC SW up (clear) = 5/4 0.3 Planetary albedo = 5/17 = SFC albedo = 5/37 = Exact!
28 LWQ 183 Wild et al. 2015
29 Surface observations justify Wild et al. 2018
30 The complete solution TSI = 51 Wild et al. 2018
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